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Post by duhnderdawg on Sept 16, 2007 9:52:54 GMT -5
... who moves out of the poll, who moves in?
Out TAMU: I know it's only two losses, but I don't think the voters are very forgiving for teams ranked below about 17.
In NMSU: No big wins, but a good record and the advantage of having been ranked last year (I swear previous rankings help... name recognition, etc.).
Out Santa Clara: 5 total losses usually does not allow a team to hang in one of the bottom five slots. And their best win is over Fullerton. But, they have been ranked 6 of the last 7 years.
Out Cal Poly: it actually seems unlikely that they'll drop from 16 to NR, but with a record of 6-6 who knows. Can still ride good wins over BYU and Creighton (not sure how good that one is at this point).
On the edge:
OU: good record, good conference, maybe they move in.
Oregon and Middle Tenn St: teams from polar opposite conferences, and for both, this might be the last chance to get in (unless Oregon keeps winning when they start Pac 10 play). MTSU has opportunities at significant wins, so record alone will have to do it for them.
BYU: Despite a rough weekend, I think they stay in, but drop.
UNLV: a good win over BYU, played a good schedule. Probably should be in the poll, but there is the issue of having not been ranked in the past.
tOSU - a couple of losses to good teams, but they don't have any significant wins.
Long Beach: Two good wins, name recognition... who knows?
Colorado St: Another MWC school that will likely keep getting votes, but not move into the poll (but again, they've made into the poll 12 of the last 15 years, so they got name recognition). Next week is their chance, if they can beat BYU on the road and win at Utah.
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Post by bownlovingfreak on Sept 16, 2007 10:13:16 GMT -5
Dayton still undefeated they may move into the top 20.
Im still stunned Michigan is ranked 10th BTW.
Will Penn state move down even more, or stay 3rd?
I think Cal is a top 10 team, but no one above them has lost yet. They should stay in 11th
BYU and Cal Poly should drop, allowing for Hawaii to move up.
Kansas St should move up
A & M and Santa Clara should move out
Who moves in? Purdue, Oregon, UCSB, New Mexico St, MTSU have good chances.
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Post by runninrebel44 on Sept 16, 2007 10:52:11 GMT -5
OUT: A&M, Santa Clara, Cal Poly
IN: Oregon, Purdue, NMSU
BIG MOVERS: Dayton, K State
ERRORS: Michigan will still be #10, Penn State will move down, Hawaii will be ranked too high.
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Post by duhnderdawg on Sept 16, 2007 10:56:42 GMT -5
What do you like about Purdue? The win over Oregon? I'm not sure that's a great win (Oregon's best win is over Baylor, which isn't looking so good now) and Purdue's next best win is Clemson. But once Big 10 gets going it will all become more clear.
Back to Oregon, a good record, but only one team in the Pablo top 50, 2 in the RKPI. Again, Pac 10 is starting and it should become clear how good they are.
UCSB I definitely overlooked with regard to recent wins, but they also lost 6 in a row and have a losing record. One of those losses is to UNLV and think they might be pretty dang good (they only played two teams below 100 in Pablo, 3 in RKPI).
NMSU has one of my votes for getting in. Decent schedule despite no really good wins (Louisville and UNM might be good wins, have to wait and see).
MTSU is a tough one. They have two good wins and played a good schedule the first two weekends. But now it falls, really falls. And even if they get in, they won't have a chance to solidify things unless they just spank the pants off everyone they play.
I know I'm kinda of data driven with all the Pablo/RKPI good win and strength of schedule stuff, but that's what I've got to go on. And I'm a geek.
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Post by bownlovingfreak on Sept 16, 2007 11:13:02 GMT -5
I totally forgot about UNLV, wouldnt be surprised if they were ranked. They deserve it!
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Post by runninrebel44 on Sept 16, 2007 11:39:26 GMT -5
Purdue: We all see the potential of Purdue, and if there was a potential poll, they may be in the top 10, but there is not. All we have to go by is what they've done this year, they have no bad losses with a few solid wins. Plus, as someone mentioned earlier in this thread, name recognition matters, I don't know exactly how long, but they had been in the top 25 every week for at least 2 straight years up until a couple weeks ago.
Oregon: 11-1. Win over Ohio State, yet to be truly tested, similar to a lot of Big Conference schools, we will find out a lot once the conference season starts. I like their potential as well, and again, that means nothing.. yet. I just like them somewhere in the top 4-5 of the PAC 10, which I feel should put them in the top 25 somewhere. Again, we will know a lot more about this team when they start playing USC, Stanford, and Washington.
NMSU - The Aggies are 10-2 and their only losses are to Texas and the #1 team in the land. Their wins aren't all cupcakes either. Albany, UNM, and especially Louisville are all good wins. I deinitely think they should be in there, if not in the top 20. That obviously won't happen, but I think that's the kind of team they are.
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Post by duhnderdawg on Sept 16, 2007 11:56:26 GMT -5
Purdue: We all see the potential of Purdue, and if there was a potential poll, they may be in the top 10, but there is not. All we have to go by is what they've done this year, they have no bad losses with a few solid wins. Hmmm, maybe so... heres' the Pablo data: Wins - Oregon 12, Clemson 70, North Carolina 91, Furman 99, East Carolina 177, Winthrop 195, Florida A&M 202 Losses - USC 8, Utah 31, Dayton 34, Duke 42 So, no bad losses for sure, with one good win and record of 7-4. They should for sure get some votes annd they'll get their chance to get more big wins in conference. Plus, as someone mentioned earlier in this thread, name recognition matters, I don't know exactly how long, but they had been in the top 25 every week for at least 2 straight years up until a couple weeks ago. Not quite, but close. They were in for one week in 2004, most of 2005 (13 weeks), and all of 2006. (available on AVCA site) It will be fun to watch the Big 10 conference matches this year - lots of good teams will make for an interesting mix of wins and losses.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 16, 2007 12:21:23 GMT -5
I know I'm kinda of data driven with all the Pablo/RKPI good win and strength of schedule stuff, but that's what I've got to go on. And I'm a geek. However, if you are trying to predict what is going to happen with the AVCA poll, none of this means very much. Although there are at least a few AVCA voters who are fans of Pablo, I don't know how much it influences anything they do. If you want to talk about what SHOULD be, that's one thing, but if you are talking about what they WILL do, you need to come at it from the perspective of the AVCA, which is probably not geeky enough to rely too much on Pablo.
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Post by duhnderdawg on Sept 16, 2007 12:31:50 GMT -5
Good points from P-Dub, as I don't see a lot of geeks in this list. Nerds, dorks, and wonks maybe, but not a lot of geeks.
2007 CSTV/AVCA Division I Coaches Top 25 Poll Voters
Aiu, Pi'i - Colorado Banachowski, Andy - UCLA Bauer, Kristen - Coastal Carolina Beerman, Chris - Pittsburgh Benson, Lyndsey - Northern Colorado Brande, Charlie - UC Irvine Brown, Debbie - Notre Dame Buchanan, Debbie - Idaho Carlston, Geoff - Ohio Chisum, Karen - Texas State Collins-Parker, Deitre - Cornell Cummings, Craig - Arkansas State Denu, Nathaniel - Southern-Baton Rouge Dingman, Sharon - Illinois State Duncan, Lori - Eastern Kentucky Dunning, John - Stanford Elliott, Jerritt - Texas Feller, Rich - California Fritz, Susie - Kansas State Gimmillaro, Brian - Long Beach State Goldberg, Barry - American Green, Judy - Alabama Gregory, Kathy - UC Santa Barbara Hardin, Don - Illinois Hebert, Mike - Minnesota Hilbert, Tom - Colorado State Hoover, Jolene - Clemson Horsmon, Tim - Dayton Jacobs, Mitch - Marshall Jordan, Mike - New Mexico State Kendrick, Patricia - George Mason Kirch, Debbie - Wisconsin-Green Bay Kuwata, Beth - Denver Launiere, Beth - Utah Mattheis, Nina - Pepperdine Nagel, Jolene - Duke Nold, Rick - Jacksonville State Opperman, Steve - Duquense Patrick, Rob - Tennessee Payne, Steve - IUPUI Petersen, Bobbi - Northern Iowa Rens, Toby - Long Island Rhodes, Lisa - Chattanooga Seifert, Lisa - SMU Sheffield, Kelly - Albany Shoji, Dave - Hawai'i Shymansky, Bond - Georgia Tech Stangle, Pat - Wyoming Stokes, Melissa - Missouri State Stratos, Steve - Loyola Marymount Sunahara, Reed - Cincinnati Trifonov, Tony - Florida A&M Van De Walle, Denise - Bowling Green Volpe, Genny - Rice Waite, Pete - Wisconsin Wallace, Jon - Santa Clara Webb, Deanne - Belmont Welch, Mike - Idaho State Werneke, Jeff - Fairfield Wise, Mary - Florida
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Post by ladeda on Sept 16, 2007 12:45:43 GMT -5
I only watch the schools north of us in the polls because I couldn't care less about the rest. BYU and Cal Poly should drop and we should move up. Do we deserve it I think not.. at least not right now but it's the voters who decide not us.
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Post by mervynpumpkinhead on Sept 16, 2007 12:59:18 GMT -5
I only watch the schools north of us in the polls because I couldn't care less about the rest. BYU and Cal Poly should drop and we should move up. Do we deserve it I think not.. at least not right now but it's the voters who decide not us. I wouldn't drop Penn State. USC almost lost to Ohio State, UCLA went five with San Diego, Texas just lost to Nebraska, so I don't see any of those guys moving up.
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Post by bownlovingfreak on Sept 16, 2007 13:10:26 GMT -5
That means Florida and Washington move into the top 3 and 4!!
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Post by Ye Olde Dawg on Sept 16, 2007 17:20:04 GMT -5
The top ten (well, eleven) don't change. Everyone won the matches they were supposed to win. With Stanford winning a close one over Penn State, I expect the separation between 1, 2, and 3 to become much clearer. In other words, Stanford won't be getting first-place votes.
AVCA publishes weekly results that list the matches involving top-25 teams, highlight the upsets, and especially highlight top-25 losses to unranked teams. I'm lazy, so I want to wait until that comes out. I suspect though that Oregon's win over tOSU is going to be much more visible than their loss to Purdue. It's not fair, but Oregon may be ranked tomorrow, without Purdue getting many more votes.
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Post by Wolfgang on Sept 16, 2007 19:46:22 GMT -5
Isn't every AVCA poll release day a "moving" day according to your definition?
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Post by saywho on Sept 16, 2007 20:52:19 GMT -5
What do you like about Purdue? The win over Oregon? I'm not sure that's a great win (Oregon's best win is over Baylor, which isn't looking so good now) I think you forgot that Oregon just swept Ohio State this weekend (at Ohio State, btw). That's not a shabby win at all to have on your record.
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