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Post by rampageripster on Nov 10, 2009 14:10:25 GMT -5
If you look at the remainder of OSU's schedule, it's a good mix of middle-of-the-pack and big statement games. YOu've got N'western and Michigan at home and Purdue and Indiana on the road. I expect the Bucks to take care of business there. Toss in two huge home matches against Illinois and Michigan and you've got a recipe for a solid end of the season RPI. There may be another minor point regarding the "end of the season RPI". The committee in the past has seemed to have a majority of their work done by the last Saturday - with maybe a review/tweeking of Saturday nights results if needed on Sunday before releasing the bracket. I think for all practical purposes a teams RPI through Friday is pretty close to what will get used for most of there bracketing. So don't count on a big win on Saturday night to give your team much of a boost nor a bad loss to hurt too much. It may be too late to have much of an impact on the decision. that's fine, we play that school up north on friday anyway ;D
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Post by vbnerd on Nov 10, 2009 14:19:08 GMT -5
A potential concern about Kentucky is that there are so many good teams in the midwest that are competing for hosting sites. I think Kentucky has an edge being more SE, though. They are far enough away from Lincoln, Champagne, Ames, and Minneapolis, and potentially Ann Arbor. It's hard for me to imagine that all 4 (or 5) of these will host. Lincoln is a given, Kentucky is likely, and unless I'm mistaken Dayton has drawn big numbers in the past, and they have a renovated facility. Kentucky and Nebraska can host their own seeds and Dayton would probably host Notre Dame's cluster, but they could bring in a team like Hawaii.
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 10, 2009 14:27:59 GMT -5
Cal has a pretty high rpi #6, and some marquee wins (@ Hawaii, @ Washington, Stanford).....although with some losses too. interesting where they will be seeded
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Post by hammer on Nov 10, 2009 14:54:56 GMT -5
Cal has a pretty high rpi #6, and some marquee wins (@ Hawaii, @ Washington, Stanford).....although with some losses too. interesting where they will be seeded As long as they are seeded higher than Hawaii, I have no problem.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 10, 2009 14:55:42 GMT -5
Cal has a pretty high rpi #6, and some marquee wins (@ Hawaii, @ Washington, Stanford).....although with some losses too. interesting where they will be seeded As long as they are seeded higher than Hawaii, I have no problem. You will probably have a problem, then.
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 10, 2009 15:01:33 GMT -5
As long as they are seeded higher than Hawaii, I have no problem. You will probably have a problem, then. I dunno...IF (a big if) Cal can win out, they may just have a case for a top seed over Hawaii....that high rpi plus big wins can really do wonders to that staggering 8 loss record
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Post by tomclen on Nov 10, 2009 15:02:42 GMT -5
I realize the NCAA wants to avoid having conference opponents face each other in 1st or 2nd round. But they also want to limit travel.
So two questions:
1. Could Washington State possibly be sent to Seattle for 1st and 2nd rounds? (Assuming WSU makes tournament and UW hosts).
2. Has WSU requested to host and could that happen and could UW be sent to Pullman?
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 10, 2009 15:04:10 GMT -5
I realize the NCAA wants to avoid having conference opponents face each other in 1st or 2nd round. But they also want to limit travel. So two questions: 1. Could Washington State possibly be sent to Seattle for 1st and 2nd rounds? (Assuming WSU makes tournament and UW hosts). 2. Has WSU requested to host and could that happen and could UW be sent to Pullman? good possibility that UW and WSU are in the same subregional....
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 10, 2009 15:10:58 GMT -5
As long as they are seeded higher than Hawaii, I have no problem. You will probably have a problem, then. It's pretty close, though. Cal has the head-to-head advantage, which is a primary criterion. Common opponents (UCLA) favor Hawaii, but that is not as important as head-to-head, especially since Cal has beaten Stanford. If Cal beats Stanford again, this gets more interesting. If the committee is sitting with both in front of them and they are close based on the overall picture, Cal would get the nod. Given the RPI difference, which is due to strength of schedule, I think that it is going to be close, at best, if not Cal coming out straight ahead. If Cal doesn't botch up too bad, this will be interesting. If Cal can win 4 of the last 5, I don't think it is all that close anymore. By the NCAA criteria, Cal would appear to come out well-ahead (especially if the loss is Oregon and not Stanford)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2009 15:17:02 GMT -5
Whereas they *can* put two teams from the same conference in the same sub-regional, they have not to date. No reason to believe they'd do it this time.
Much easier for them to just leave WSU out of the tournament if travel became a real issue. (And I'm not kidding.)
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 10, 2009 15:20:28 GMT -5
You will probably have a problem, then. It's pretty close, though. Cal has the head-to-head advantage, which is a primary criterion. Common opponents (UCLA) favor Hawaii, but that is not as important as head-to-head, especially since Cal has beaten Stanford. If Cal beats Stanford again, this gets more interesting. If the committee is sitting with both in front of them and they are close based on the overall picture, Cal would get the nod. Given the RPI difference, which is due to strength of schedule, I think that it is going to be close, at best, if not Cal coming out straight ahead. If Cal doesn't botch up too bad, this will be interesting. If Cal can win 4 of the last 5, I don't think it is all that close anymore. By the NCAA criteria, Cal would appear to come out well-ahead (especially if the loss is Oregon and not Stanford) like I said, IF (big if) Cal wins out, I think they are in very good contention to take that 4th seed (Assuming UW gets the 3rd one....which they are falling in stock right now)
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Post by tomclen on Nov 10, 2009 15:22:27 GMT -5
On one had, I'd hate to see WSU and UW in the same 1st/2nd round...however, it would make for an incredibly exciting two days. And probably spectacular attendance.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 10, 2009 15:42:07 GMT -5
It's pretty close, though. Cal has the head-to-head advantage, which is a primary criterion. Common opponents (UCLA) favor Hawaii, but that is not as important as head-to-head, especially since Cal has beaten Stanford. If Cal beats Stanford again, this gets more interesting. If the committee is sitting with both in front of them and they are close based on the overall picture, Cal would get the nod. Given the RPI difference, which is due to strength of schedule, I think that it is going to be close, at best, if not Cal coming out straight ahead. If Cal doesn't botch up too bad, this will be interesting. If Cal can win 4 of the last 5, I don't think it is all that close anymore. By the NCAA criteria, Cal would appear to come out well-ahead (especially if the loss is Oregon and not Stanford) like I said, IF (big if) Cal wins out, I think they are in very good contention to take that 4th seed (Assuming UW gets the 3rd one....which they are falling in stock right now) That's a big if, though, but I don't disagree. However, if they are in the running for a #4 seed, then it isn't all that close with Hawaii, who should be seeded but will be hard-pressed to get into the top 10 (I don't expect it). While it is true that the committee relies on a lot of factors besides RPI, it is also the case that they tend to favor those same things that are reflected in the RPI. I did an analysis a couple of years ago and, although there were some limitations, the lesson was that the top teams in RPI were generally the ones to get seeded. In any year, there were typically 2 - 3 seeds from outside the top 16 in RPI, but those teams from outside the top 16 in RPI were generally seeded in the 11 - 16 range. I think the highest seed ever by a team with an RPI greater than 20 was 13 or so. So that is what I expect for Hawaii. This whole Hawaii/Cal comparison is predicated on Hawaii getting up into the 10 seed range, which I think is optimistic. (NOTE: This is based on my expectations of what the committee WILL do, based on their past actions, and not what I think they SHOULD do)
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 10, 2009 15:54:22 GMT -5
like I said, IF (big if) Cal wins out, I think they are in very good contention to take that 4th seed (Assuming UW gets the 3rd one....which they are falling in stock right now) That's a big if, though, but I don't disagree. However, if they are in the running for a #4 seed, then it isn't all that close with Hawaii, who should be seeded but will be hard-pressed to get into the top 10 (I don't expect it). While it is true that the committee relies on a lot of factors besides RPI, it is also the case that they tend to favor those same things that are reflected in the RPI. I did an analysis a couple of years ago and, although there were some limitations, the lesson was that the top teams in RPI were generally the ones to get seeded. In any year, there were typically 2 - 3 seeds from outside the top 16 in RPI, but those teams from outside the top 16 in RPI were generally seeded in the 11 - 16 range. I think the highest seed ever by a team with an RPI greater than 20 was 13 or so. So that is what I expect for Hawaii.This whole Hawaii/Cal comparison is predicated on Hawaii getting up into the 10 seed range, which I think is optimistic. (NOTE: This is based on my expectations of what the committee WILL do, based on their past actions, and not what I think they SHOULD do) but this has been one crazy year so far....i expect the seeds to continue the trend
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 10, 2009 16:05:38 GMT -5
but this has been one crazy year so far....i expect the seeds to continue the trend Is depends what you mean by "crazy." If you mean that the common names are not sitting in the top spots, then yeah. However, in terms of the behavior of the teams on the whole? I don't think so. Perhaps the biggest difference between this year and those past is the extent to which the top teams are dominated by the big three conferences, although I'm not even sure that is true. FSU sits at #3, LSU at #11, Notre Dame #14. The difference is that in years past it was Florida at #3 and Hawaii at #11. It's Illinois instead of Wisconsin, or Iowa State instead of KSU or Cal instead of USC. Take away the names and just look at them by the numbers, and I don't think it is as crazy as it seems.
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