14 Wins for Kerri/April

[guest2]

I'm curious, now that one tournament is in the books, how many events do people think Kerri and April will win this year.

My guess, based on last year and the first tournament (which included four straight convincing game wins over top teams) is 15 wins (this includes AVP)

That assumes no injuries and that they play most of the FIVBs (and that all 19 of the FIVBs happen)

All due respect to Jen Kessey, but she has been holding April back and Kerri is back to being the best in the world

[tree]

I wouldn't say Jen held April back. Everybody who plays with Kerri winning percentage goes up. Watched the finals and Walsh had it going on as usual.I think Kerri will past Karch in victories before she is done as long as no serious injuries or something else drastic does not happen.

[klazk]

I doubt they play many (if any) more Opens. The next three registrations for Opens are closed and they are not entered in any of them.

So, you are looking at 7 AVPs + 10 Grand Slams (one of which conflicts with an AVP) + the Grand Slam Final and maybe another Open or two if they decide to play those for one reason or another.

So I would think a maximum of 20 more events this year and probably 17-18 is more likely.

I would give them 6 out of the 7 AVPs and 5 more FIVB events. So my guess would be 12 total.

I have to believe that Lima/Talita are going to get a couple and Julianna/Maria Antonelli are going to get a couple. Throw 1 or 2 in there for Holtwick/Semmler and/or Ludwig/Walkenhorst and possibly the Salgado sisters, a Dutch team or the Chinese could grab one.

I would like to see the AVP be competitive, but it probably isn't going to happen unless Summer Ross/Emily Day continue to improve at the rate they did last year. Then maybe they could grab a couple. The other reason for a Walsh/Ross dominance on AVP is the format. On the FIVBs, after pool, it is single elimination; so one bad match and they could be out. But the AVPs are double elimination until the crossover. At that point, you know Walsh isn't going to have a let down and I doubt Ross will either. So that makes it that much tougher to predict there will be many AVPs that they will fall short.

[volleyballjim]

guest2: I think the way to approach this is how many events will they NOT WIN. LOL. Well, they are 1-0, limited field, I get it, BUT new team, Kerri probably STILL building strength from post-pregnancy, April still "learning the ropes". "Learning the ropes" you say? Well, I seriously doubt anyone would argue the difference in Jenn (LOVE her, but...) vs. Kerri in the sidelines chairs in timeouts PLUS the strategies a 4 time gold Olympian brings (Did I say 4? My bad, we're not even courtside at Copacabana yet ; - ) I don't think people "...seen nuthin' yet" when April and Kerri hit their stride...Out on a limb, but they aren't going to lose many....

[guest2]

Apr 27, 2014 12:21:32 GMT -5 volleyballjim said:

guest2: I think the way to approach this is how many events will they NOT WIN. LOL. Well, they are 1-0, limited field, I get it, BUT new team, Kerri probably STILL building strength from post-pregnancy, April still "learning the ropes". "Learning the ropes" you say? Well, I seriously doubt anyone would argue the difference in Jenn (LOVE her, but...) vs. Kerri in the sidelines chairs in timeouts PLUS the strategies a 4 time gold Olympian brings (Did I say 4? My bad, we're not even courtside at Copacabana yet ; - ) I don't think people "...seen nuthin' yet" when April and Kerri hit their stride...Out on a limb, but they aren't going to lose many....

That field didnt seem too limited. The top Chinese teams were there, as were the top Brazilians. Emily and Summer might be the best team that wasnt there (without reviewing the entries I cant be sure)

[guest2]

Apr 27, 2014 11:58:07 GMT -5 klazk said:

I doubt they play many (if any) more Opens. The next three registrations for Opens are closed and they are not entered in any of them.

So, you are looking at 7 AVPs + 10 Grand Slams (one of which conflicts with an AVP) + the Grand Slam Final and maybe another Open or two if they decide to play those for one reason or another.

So I would think a maximum of 20 more events this year and probably 17-18 is more likely.

I would give them 6 out of the 7 AVPs and 5 more FIVB events. So my guess would be 12 total.

I have to believe that Lima/Talita are going to get a couple and Julianna/Maria Antonelli are going to get a couple. Throw 1 or 2 in there for Holtwick/Semmler and/or Ludwig/Walkenhorst and possibly the Salgado sisters, a Dutch team or the Chinese could grab one.

I would like to see the AVP be competitive, but it probably isn't going to happen unless Summer Ross/Emily Day continue to improve at the rate they did last year. Then maybe they could grab a couple. The other reason for a Walsh/Ross dominance on AVP is the format. On the FIVBs, after pool, it is single elimination; so one bad match and they could be out. But the AVPs are double elimination until the crossover. At that point, you know Walsh isn't going to have a let down and I doubt Ross will either. So that makes it that much tougher to predict there will be many AVPs that they will fall short.

I dont get why they arent playing in Mexico? That just seems stupid. Cant take a 45 minute flight? Maybe skip the Chinese ones or any that are huge scheduling issues, but I think they should play as much as they can, while they can.

I think five more FVIBs (out of the 15 you think they will play) is very conservative. They have played three and won three so far (not counting the one early last year where Kerri was still not 100%) I agree they get almost all the AVPs. I dont see Day/Ross as being able to consistently challenge them yet and who else is there?

[tinman2]

You think they should play as much as they can, but Kerri might disagree. She does have 3 young children at home. I think it is fair to say that she has earned the right to decide where and when she will play.

[guest2]

Apr 27, 2014 17:13:19 GMT -5 tinman2 said:

You think they should play as much as they can, but Kerri might disagree. She does have 3 young children at home. I think it is fair to say that she has earned the right to decide where and when she will play.

Everyone has that right but she has a chance to put the women's win record so far out of reach no one will ever come close again. That seems worth taking the kids to Mexico, there are probably 3 tournaments all year that are closer to her house

[geddyleeridesagain]

The FIVB field will get tougher than it was this past weekend. There were several teams ranked in the top ten last year that didn't enter but will be at Shanghai. Plus, I don't think the top Brazilian teams looked real sharp, and I wouldn't expect that to last. The Chinese team - who gave Ross/Walsh their toughest match - will only get better as Xue's partner continues to learn the ropes at age 17. Now, I think that Ross/Walsh would be favored to beat most of those teams 7,8 even 9 times out of 10...but with single elimination, it only takes one off match for a favorite to finish 9th.

The World Tour is tough - no women's team has ever won more than eight events (Kerri/Misty won seven in their best season). Deep fields, travel, nagging injuries as we get deeper in the season - for example, the Puerto Vallarta Open is immediately after Shanghai. It's a 2 1/2 hour flight there from LAX - not a big deal - but the travel schedule is actually a 13 hour flight from Shanghai to LAX, spend 36 hours at home, then catch a flight down to Mexico.

The travel schedule will also impact their AVP events - last season, April/Kerri went do to Brazil and won a Grand Slam, then made a quick turnaround to come back and play the Huntington Beach AVP, looked tired and got hammered by Fendrick/Hochevar in the semi's.

I think April and Kerri should and probably will be the favorites in every event they enter, and that 14 wins is achievable (if we're talking about FIVB and AVP combined) - but I also think that everything has to go right for that to happen - smart scheduling, avoiding lingering injuries etc.

[guest2]

Thanks for the explanation on the Mexico event. Makes more sense now. So what would you expect in terms of wins for them?

I think that Misty and Kerri only won seven in their best year is a little deceiving. They won 6 of 7, 6 of 8, 7 of 8 and 5 of 5. They were winning almost every event they entered but they werent entering that many. I think they easily would have won 10 or more if they played 15 events all of those years

[geddyleeridesagain]

Apr 27, 2014 18:09:12 GMT -5 guest2 said:

Thanks for the explanation on the Mexico event. Makes more sense now. So what would you expect in terms of wins for them?

I think that Misty and Kerri only won seven in their best year is a little deceiving. They won 6 of 7, 6 of 8, 7 of 8 and 5 of 5. They were winning almost every event they entered but they werent entering that many. I think they easily would have won 10 or more if they played 15 events all of those years

I think the fact that Kerri/Misty sat out events goes to the point that it's just damn tough to try and play every event (or close to every event). FIVB scheduling tends to be ridiculous - Russia one weekend, then Rio, then Quebec etc.

I'm going to go a little more conservative than you - there are 10 Grand Slam events, I think they'll win six of them. I don't think they'll play any of the opens happening after the last Grand Slam - too far away and not enough money: India, Argentina, China, South Africa, Reunion Island (!!) and so on. So combined with the win last weekend, that's seven FIVB wins. I think they'll win 5 out of 7 AVP events - I think the odds are that Day/Ross or whomever will snag an upset at some point.

So I'm going with 12 wins for the season, which is nothing to sneeze at.

[guest2]

Who do you see as being the toughest challenger? I think the Chinese may be the team best suited to match up physically and Xinyi is so young I see her getting better very rapidly. That said, they looked bad in the wind (although I didnt see the first game which they won).

[volleyballjim]

I would be surprised if Summer-day give Kerri and April a run. I mean, volleyball is a SMART game. I can't imagine the "thoughts" that go on at the premier level, BUT, if they do, April and Kerri will figure out "...some stuff" to deal with Summer-day, BUT, Summer is a hand setter (HUGE advantage) and they (S/D) are hungry...who knows, but I just don't see a let-down coming (yes, earlier to look for that!), but we will see...we WILL see...

[tinman2]

[/quote]Everyone has that right but she has a chance to put the women's win record so far out of reach no one will ever come close again. That seems worth taking the kids to Mexico, there are probably 3 tournaments all year that are closer to her house[/quote]


Not sure what the prize money is, but flying the whole family to any tournament won't be cheap. I agree it seems like an easy trip, but what may seem "stupid" to you, probably has a very logical reason behind it....and she is certainly qualified to figure out the smartest moves for her and her family.

[guest2]

Flying to Puerto Vallarta? Its less than she would win. Also I think all the players have a responsibility to the sport an Kerri has frequently ignored that in the past. Without getting into the whole "Why isnt the sport as big as it once was" thing again, players need to support the sport that pays them