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Post by ay2013 on Sept 20, 2014 23:40:21 GMT -5
OK... I wasn't asking for your approval, but thanks anyways?? I suppose....but, come on, Texas not as a top seed? They are undefeated in the preseason with wins over Florida and Nebraska (two likely seed teams), and the Big 12 is going to pay higher RPI dividends (much stronger OOC win/loss record) than the Big 10. MSU in the potential seed talk?... MSU has to hope that they aren't in the bubble talk!
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Post by redbeard2008 on Sept 21, 2014 1:12:40 GMT -5
I'm thinking (in no certain order):
Pac-12 Champion: Washington or Stanford Big Ten Champion: PSU or Wisconsin Big 12 Champion: Texas ACC Champion: FSU
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Post by owlsem on Sept 21, 2014 8:32:35 GMT -5
I'm thinking (in no certain order): Pac-12 Champion: Washington or Stanford Big Ten Champion: PSU or Wisconsin Big 12 Champion: Texas ACC Champion: FSU I agree, this is the year you get the winner of each conference as a top seed. The top two in each of these conferences are excellent. There is a gap to third place in each conference.
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Post by lionsfan on Sept 21, 2014 10:15:49 GMT -5
I'm thinking (in no certain order): Pac-12 Champion: Washington or Stanford Big Ten Champion: PSU or Wisconsin Big 12 Champion: Texas ACC Champion: FSU Makes sense; I would gather those six teams plus Florida are locks for Top 8 seeds; who that 8th team will be isn't clear yet. If Washington isn't Pac champ, it will be easier for the committee to make them a 2 seed knowing that they get to play in Seattle anyway. But who knows what carnage might await in conference play? It's a whole new season. But the PSU @ Wisky match (which opens conference play on Wed.) and the Stanford @ Washington match (last week of regular season...day before Thanksgiving? Really?!) are HUGE. What a shame those matchups only happen once.
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Post by austintatious on Sept 21, 2014 10:18:29 GMT -5
Stanford, TX, PSU, Wisconsin. FSU can only get fifth if it runs conference undefeated, which could be tough. Washington will have to many 12 PAC losses to take more than a 5th, even though they beat Wisconsin. Wisconsin will have a better BIG record than UW in 12 PAC. After these teams it is pick'em. USC, Illinois, Nebraska, Florida, Kentucky, MN, UCLA, Oregon have too many variables before conference. FSU has a very strong OOC SOS, much higher than Penn State and Wisconsin's...with zero losses. I think you are understanding how high FSU's overall can be especially compared to Penn State and Wisconsin. FSU is helped even more in conference because the unbalanced ACC schedule has them playing only one match (instead of 2) against Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech which are the 4 teams that bring the worst OOC win/loss record to the ACC. FSU is going to have to lose a lot of matches 4+ to not end up with a very high RPI. They could, of course lose those matches, but I dunno. If they don't lose a lot of matches, the committee will have to break some pretty strong precedent to not give them a high seed. Also, the Big 10 rpi boost won't be as strong as in past years, meaning that PSU and Wisconsin both have to lose fewer matches to end up with a higher rpi. I don't think that the Big 10 conference rpi, hampered by a 74% OOC winning percentage, can put two teams high enough in the rpi to get two top seeds. The Pac-12, however, can. PSU and Wisconsin would almost literally have to run the table in the Big 10 just for that to be a possibility, and even then, I have a hard time seeing that happening over an FSU seed or second Pac-12 seed. Minnesota is going to have to do VERY well in conference to be in the discussion of a seed. Their OOC SOS is terrible, and, like I said before, the Big 10 won't be giving huge SOS boosts to its teams like in years past. They'd be helped immensely if some of the teams they played OOC ended up doing very well in their own conference. I agree with just about everything you say. After the top 6 I just don't know what is going to happen. Maybe Duke, Alabama, and just realized I left out CSU will knock Minnesota out, agree with your assessment about their OOC. I think my whole premise is that other than the Wisconsin win, Washington also has a very average OOC and I am not convinced they will escape without 3-4 conference losses which may hinder them taking a 4th seed. That is all. You are much smarter than me about RPI figures and impact, my picks are just the ramblings of a interested observer.
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Post by Boof1224 on Sept 21, 2014 10:40:55 GMT -5
Havnt looked at pac schedule, as far at big if psu gets by first two weeks conference play without loss, think they could run table.( Wisconsin done. Minnesota away done Nebraska away done )
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Post by Boof1224 on Sept 21, 2014 10:43:17 GMT -5
There biggest two road games would be done. The only other threat in conference I believe is Illinois and they only play them at rec hall this year
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Post by Boof1224 on Sept 21, 2014 10:44:57 GMT -5
As far as pac very interested to see where ucla falls in conference. They could make some noise I think
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Post by owlsem on Sept 21, 2014 10:48:15 GMT -5
I would not overlook North Carolina. OOC was pretty good SOS pretty good. They IMO are co-favorites with FSU for ACC both well ahead of Duke Louisville and NC State.The winner of their H2H match up is likely to be the conference champ and likely deserving of a top 4 seed.
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Post by ay2013 on Sept 21, 2014 11:32:46 GMT -5
I'm thinking (in no certain order): Pac-12 Champion: Washington or Stanford Big Ten Champion: PSU or Wisconsin Big 12 Champion: Texas ACC Champion: FSU Makes sense; I would gather those six teams plus Florida are locks for Top 8 seeds; who that 8th team will be isn't clear yet. If Washington isn't Pac champ, it will be easier for the committee to make them a 2 seed knowing that they get to play in Seattle anyway. But who knows what carnage might await in conference play? It's a whole new season. But the PSU @ Wisky match (which opens conference play on Wed.) and the Stanford @ Washington match (last week of regular season...day before Thanksgiving? Really?!) are HUGE. What a shame those matchups only happen once. the fact that Washington is hosting a regional should play ZERO part in whether or not they receive a top seed. It's that kind of reasoning that makes the committee lose its credibility. They should hold all the teams to the same standard, as objective at possible. So what if Washington finishes 2nd in conference? if 4 other teams do not have a better resume, applying the same standard, then they should get a 1 seed, period. And, regardless of where the match is played, a 1 seed is plenty different than a 2 seed, because of the sweet 16 match up. 1 seeds play 4 seeds, 2 seeds play 3 seeds. The difference of getting the #4 overall national seed and the #5 overall national seed could be the difference between drawing a team like Kansas in the sweet 16 versus a team like Nebraska or USC in the sweet 16. *IMO the only blatantly arbitrary acts where they don't apply the same standard should be to avoid top intra-conference matchups before the final four.
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Post by lionsfan on Sept 21, 2014 11:46:16 GMT -5
Makes sense; I would gather those six teams plus Florida are locks for Top 8 seeds; who that 8th team will be isn't clear yet. If Washington isn't Pac champ, it will be easier for the committee to make them a 2 seed knowing that they get to play in Seattle anyway. But who knows what carnage might await in conference play? It's a whole new season. But the PSU @ Wisky match (which opens conference play on Wed.) and the Stanford @ Washington match (last week of regular season...day before Thanksgiving? Really?!) are HUGE. What a shame those matchups only happen once. the fact that Washington is hosting a regional should play ZERO part in whether or not they receive a top seed. It's that kind of reasoning that makes the committee lose its credibility. They should hold all the teams to the same standard, as objective at possible. So what if Washington finishes 2nd in conference? if 4 other teams do not have a better resume, applying the same standard, then they should get a 1 seed, period. And, regardless of where the match is played, a 1 seed is plenty different than a 2 seed, because of the sweet 16 match up. 1 seeds play 4 seeds, 2 seeds play 3 seeds. The difference of getting the #4 overall national seed and the #5 overall national seed could be the difference between drawing a team like Kansas in the sweet 16 versus a team like Nebraska or USC in the sweet 16. *IMO the only blatantly arbitrary acts where they don't apply the same standard should be to avoid top intra-conference matchups before the final four. I never said it would be fair or made sense does the selection committee have a lot of credibility with you?
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Post by baywatcher on Sept 21, 2014 12:17:58 GMT -5
RPI is not that decisive in seedings. I'll put Texas #1 in seeding as I think they have the best chance to run the table, in the major conferences. Florida State is also high, if they get past North Carolina I don't think they'll lose. Stanford may lose once, probably to SC as those two usually split, but I think they'll beat Washington late in the year (kind of a Stanford tradition)and ride that to a high seed. Penn State should have a burp or two, but should beat Wisconsin, which may not loose again otherwise. Don't think Florida will lose much, besides to Texas again, and BYU should rule the WCC. The Purdue fans on this site have convinced me they should be great this year, so I will ignore recent indications otherwise. Hawaii runs the table and sneaks in (their RPI, used to establish seeds, not seeding, should be OK, not many bad teams)
1. Texas 8. Oregon 9. Purdue 16.Hawaii
2. Stanford 7. North Carolina 10. Florida 15. USC
3. Florida St. 6. Wisconsin 11.Nebraska 14.Kentucky
4. Penn State 5. Washington 12.Colorado State 13.BYU
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Post by ay2013 on Sept 21, 2014 12:28:49 GMT -5
1. Stanford 8. North Carolina 9. Nebraska 16.Kansas/Hawaii/LMU
2. Texas 7. Wisconsin 10. Florida 15. UCLA/Illinois
3. Penn State 6. Oregon 11. USC 14. Colorado State
4. Florida State 5. Washington 12. Kentucky 13.BYU
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Post by FTLOG on Sept 21, 2014 12:29:44 GMT -5
RPI is not that decisive in seedings. I'll put Texas #1 in seeding as I think they have the best chance to run the table, in the major conferences. Florida State is also high, if they get past North Carolina I don't think they'll lose. Stanford may lose once, probably to SC as those two usually split, but I think they'll beat Washington late in the year (kind of a Stanford tradition)and ride that to a high seed. Penn State should have a burp or two, but should beat Wisconsin, which may not loose again otherwise. Don't think Florida will lose much, besides to Texas again, and BYU should rule the WCC. The Purdue fans on this site have convinced me they should be great this year, so I will ignore recent indications otherwise. Hawaii runs the table and sneaks in (their RPI, used to establish seeds, not seeding, should be OK, not many bad teams) 1. Texas 8. Oregon 9. Purdue 16.Hawaii 2. Stanford 7. North Carolina 10. Florida 15. USC 3. Florida St. 6. Wisconsin 11.Nebraska 14.Kentucky 4. Washington 5. Wisconsin 12.Colorado State 13.BYU I think you forgot a team. Either that or I woke up in a bizarro world where Penn State isn't seeded. #greatestunseededteamever
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Post by rainbowbadger on Sept 21, 2014 12:46:15 GMT -5
RPI is not that decisive in seedings. I'll put Texas #1 in seeding as I think they have the best chance to run the table, in the major conferences. Florida State is also high, if they get past North Carolina I don't think they'll lose. Stanford may lose once, probably to SC as those two usually split, but I think they'll beat Washington late in the year (kind of a Stanford tradition)and ride that to a high seed. Penn State should have a burp or two, but should beat Wisconsin, which may not loose again otherwise. Don't think Florida will lose much, besides to Texas again, and BYU should rule the WCC. The Purdue fans on this site have convinced me they should be great this year, so I will ignore recent indications otherwise. Hawaii runs the table and sneaks in (their RPI, used to establish seeds, not seeding, should be OK, not many bad teams) 1. Texas 8. Oregon 9. Purdue 16.Hawaii 2. Stanford 7. North Carolina 10. Florida 15. USC 3. Florida St. 6. Wisconsin 11.Nebraska 14.Kentucky 4. Washington 5. Wisconsin 12.Colorado State 13.BYU I think you forgot a team. Either that or I woke up in a bizarro world where Penn State isn't seeded. #greatestunseededteamever Reminds me of a West Wing episode where the staff are working on an event seating chart, arranging people by prestige and who can/can't sit together. They finally finish and someone realizes: "Uh, guys? We forgot the President."
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