Post by ay2013 on Sept 20, 2014 15:54:56 GMT -5
With the bulk of the OOC play over and done with, we move on to conference play. However, the biggest variable impacts on the rpi have mostly been determined, as conference play largely aggregates all the win-loss percentages to the middle. Now comes the more tricky part of predicting futures. For the power conferences to get seeds, there needs to be a clear top and clear bottom...the smaller conferences just have to hope their conference winner doesn't trip up too much. Obviously there is still the conference season to be played, but predictions are what we do best (sort of) here on volleytalk. here are some great resources to get the juices flowing...
unofficial RPI- though provisional teams aren't know yet, and neither are the small adjustments
ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi
Bluepenquin's excellent rpi futures calculation
volleytalk.net/thread/55245/rpi-futures-9-14
It seems like FSU has played a tough enough OOC that they can still lose a few matches and still be comfortable enough for a top seed. Bravo....I'm sure it makes gator fans happy, so now they can actually advance to a regional
...oh, on a completely unrelated note, I still find it wild that Tallahassee and Gainesville are completely within the driving distance mandate, and when Florida is seeded and FSU is not seeded, FSU is placed in the Florida subregional. Yet, a couple years ago FSU was seeded, and Florida was not seeded, and the committee decided to IGNORE the distance rule, and send Florida up to overrated UNI...maybe it was because the Gators were hosting a regional and they needed an easier path, but whatever the reason, it was bull%*$#.
Texas also has played a strong enough schedule, and the Big 12 has a good OOC win percentage to absorb some losses and still be comfortable enough for a top seed...though I'm not sure where these losses are coming (this current match with Nebraska notwithstanding)
There will be a few Pac-12 teams circling around high in the RPI so it's obvious that the Pac-12 winner will get a a top seed.
That then leaves the 4th national seed. If a Big 10 team can really march through the conference I think the committee would be hard pressed not to award the Big 10 winner a top national seed. the overall conference RPI won't be a big boost, but, we shall see. If Stanford and Washington or Oregon can also march through the conference, it will be a big testament to see just how much pull the rpi has when it comes to the top seeds. I would lean toward the Big 10 winner getting the nod, but Washington and Stanford only play each other once, and if both of them can leave the conference with 3 or less losses, possibly even tying for the Pac-12 crown, the committee will have a tough decision to make. I think if Stanford ends up winning the conference, the Big 10 will get the last seed, if Washington wins the conference, and Stanford comes in a solid second, their OOC SOS will push them above the Big 10 winner for a top seed.
As for number of seeds, I think the Pac-12 will safely get 3, probably 4, maybe 5...the 4th and 5th largely depend on how well the LA schools do in conference.
The Big 10 will get 3, the SEC will get 2, ACC will get 2, the Big 12 will get 2, and I think LMU, BYU, and CSU get seeds this year.
unofficial RPI- though provisional teams aren't know yet, and neither are the small adjustments
ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi
Bluepenquin's excellent rpi futures calculation
volleytalk.net/thread/55245/rpi-futures-9-14
It seems like FSU has played a tough enough OOC that they can still lose a few matches and still be comfortable enough for a top seed. Bravo....I'm sure it makes gator fans happy, so now they can actually advance to a regional
...oh, on a completely unrelated note, I still find it wild that Tallahassee and Gainesville are completely within the driving distance mandate, and when Florida is seeded and FSU is not seeded, FSU is placed in the Florida subregional. Yet, a couple years ago FSU was seeded, and Florida was not seeded, and the committee decided to IGNORE the distance rule, and send Florida up to overrated UNI...maybe it was because the Gators were hosting a regional and they needed an easier path, but whatever the reason, it was bull%*$#.Texas also has played a strong enough schedule, and the Big 12 has a good OOC win percentage to absorb some losses and still be comfortable enough for a top seed...though I'm not sure where these losses are coming (this current match with Nebraska notwithstanding)
There will be a few Pac-12 teams circling around high in the RPI so it's obvious that the Pac-12 winner will get a a top seed.
That then leaves the 4th national seed. If a Big 10 team can really march through the conference I think the committee would be hard pressed not to award the Big 10 winner a top national seed. the overall conference RPI won't be a big boost, but, we shall see. If Stanford and Washington or Oregon can also march through the conference, it will be a big testament to see just how much pull the rpi has when it comes to the top seeds. I would lean toward the Big 10 winner getting the nod, but Washington and Stanford only play each other once, and if both of them can leave the conference with 3 or less losses, possibly even tying for the Pac-12 crown, the committee will have a tough decision to make. I think if Stanford ends up winning the conference, the Big 10 will get the last seed, if Washington wins the conference, and Stanford comes in a solid second, their OOC SOS will push them above the Big 10 winner for a top seed.
As for number of seeds, I think the Pac-12 will safely get 3, probably 4, maybe 5...the 4th and 5th largely depend on how well the LA schools do in conference.
The Big 10 will get 3, the SEC will get 2, ACC will get 2, the Big 12 will get 2, and I think LMU, BYU, and CSU get seeds this year.
