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Post by ay2013 on Oct 14, 2014 14:57:55 GMT -5
One of the most valuable things pablo does is that it balances out the whole set of results without being biased by particularly recent and/or visible data. Still, sometimes the emergent properties really surprise me. Agreed. Though a PAC-12 fan, I think Pablo might be a little too high on the conference this year. My eyeball test says Oregon should probably be about 4-5 spots lower, as should ASU and the LA schools. But Pablo is kicking my behind in PTW this year, so who am I to say? Well it's not always about whether or not a particular team should be lower, but who deserves to be higher.
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Post by vbprisoner on Oct 14, 2014 15:23:38 GMT -5
Updated for pablo. Some interesting switches in pablo, as Washington moved slightly ahead of Stanford and UCLA improved while Colorado dropped -- even though Colorado won at UCLA. Pablo gives a slight edge to UCLA v. Oregon due to HCA, but does UCLA really have a HCA right now? (Of course pablo doesn't know anything about UCLA's water main problems.) Cal and WSU both dropped in pablo, which isn't all that much of a surprise, except that WSU played reasonably well against both Oregon teams on the road. Where can you go to get the information regarding Pablo gives slight edge to UCLA v. Oregon? I have seen the Pablo rankings, but have not seen info on specific matchups.
Thanks
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 14, 2014 15:35:11 GMT -5
Updated for pablo. Some interesting switches in pablo, as Washington moved slightly ahead of Stanford and UCLA improved while Colorado dropped -- even though Colorado won at UCLA. Pablo gives a slight edge to UCLA v. Oregon due to HCA, but does UCLA really have a HCA right now? (Of course pablo doesn't know anything about UCLA's water main problems.) Cal and WSU both dropped in pablo, which isn't all that much of a surprise, except that WSU played reasonably well against both Oregon teams on the road. Where can you go to get the information regarding Pablo gives slight edge to UCLA v. Oregon? I have seen the Pablo rankings, but have not seen info on specific matchups.
Thanks Rich Kern. It costs $25/year, but you can see the pablo ratings (ie. Washington is 7640) of all the teams. With that, and with pablo's home court advantage factor (calculated at 171 points this week) you can see whether pablo predicts a team to win over a more highly ranked team because it is at home (and less than 171 points behind). Also, by subtracting one team's rating from the other, you can see what percentage advantage pablo thinks a team has. For example, pablo thinks Washington is about a 75/25 favorite at Arizona this week. But I don't put those calculations in this report because they are available by subscription only. (Rich has given me permission to put the information I do put into these weekly reports.)
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Post by vbprisoner on Oct 14, 2014 16:07:02 GMT -5
I have the Rich Kern site subscription (and the prepvolleyball as well). I saw it there and looked up the info but I guess never read through it to get the calculations that you posted above. Thanks! now I have a new toy to waste more time on vball.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 14, 2014 16:12:50 GMT -5
I have the Rich Kern site subscription (and the prepvolleyball as well). I saw it there and looked up the info but I guess never read through it to get the calculations that you posted above. Thanks! now I have a new toy to waste more time on vball. In case you are looking for them, the graph and table of winning percentages v. pablo point spread are in the pablo FAQ. (There is also a new discussion on the Rich Kern site of how important point spreads are.)
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Post by gobruins on Oct 15, 2014 4:30:30 GMT -5
I think it's mostly that one match against Colorado is less than 6% of the input on UCLA's ranking. USC and Illinois are very highly ranked and the scorelines are quite dramatic there (and both neutral/away) - definitely not what you would expect from three teams that are basically rated the same. Throw in the Hawaii road sweep and some blowout wins over Top 100 types and the win column supports an even higher ranking. The losses, apart from Colorado, are respectable (and in scoreline as well). One of the most valuable things pablo does is that it balances out the whole set of results without being biased by particularly recent and/or visible data. Still, sometimes the emergent properties really surprise me. Does it take into account that UCLA home matches aren't really "home" matches? On the TV situation, Pac-12 Networks canceled all the showings of UCLA matches at Pepperdine and Crossroads. They will be back on TV when they return to campus on Nov. 2. Pauley will be ready for the Oct. 31 match against Washington, but they have a men's basketball game scheduled for that night. So, one last match at Pepperdine.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 15, 2014 23:25:14 GMT -5
Standings:
(4) Stanford 6-0 (3) Washington 6-0 (14) Arizona 4-2 (8) Oregon 4-3 (12) UCLA 4-3 (19) ASU 3-3 (31) Colorado 3-3 (23) OSU 3-3 (20) USC 3-3 (36) Utah 1-5 (62) Cal 0-6 (51) WSU 0-6
(Oct 13 pablo rankings)
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Head-to-head among favorites
Stanford: (3-0) [8 remaining: UCLA, USC, @Ore, ASU, AZ, @USC, @UCLA, @UW] Washington: (3-0) [8 remaining: @ASU, @AZ, @USC, @UCLA, Ore, AZ, ASU, Stan] Arizona: (2-1) [7 remaining: UW, @Ore, @Stan, Ore, @UW, USC, @ASU] UCLA: (2-2) [6 remaining: @Stan, UW, Stan, @Ore, @ASU, USC] ASU: (1-2) [7 remaining: UW, @Ore, @Stan, Ore, @UW, UCLA, AZ] Oregon: (0-3) [9 remaining: @USC, AZ, ASU, Stan, @UW, @AZ, @ASU, UCLA, USC] USC: (0-3) [7 remaining: Ore, @Stan, UW, Stan, @Ore, @AZ, @UCLA]
Losses by these teams to others:
Arizona (1): @Colorado ASU (1): @Utah UCLA (1): Colorado
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This week's matches (Pacific times)
Fri: 4pm Cal@Utah 6pm UW@ASU, WSU@AZ, Stan@Col 7:30pm OSU@UCLA 8pm Ore@USC
Sun: 11am WSU@ASU, OSU@USC, Cal@Col 1pm Stan@Utah 3pm UW@AZ
Bold is pablo favorite.
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Week 5 schedule:
Mountains@Washington, Arizona@Oregon, LA@BayArea
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Post by tomclen on Oct 15, 2014 23:26:36 GMT -5
Now, if some sumbitch'll jis whoop Stanford.....
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 15, 2014 23:58:56 GMT -5
USC with a chance to crawl back into 3rd place in the PAC... A couple of wins and a loss from Arizona..
Big match for USC / Oregon on Friday... If the Trojans can pull it off i think they'll be able to put together a six game winning streak... But we'll see.. one step at a time.
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Post by jgrout on Oct 16, 2014 16:18:17 GMT -5
Now, if some sumbitch'll jis whoop Stanford..... Washington.....
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Post by Pirate VB Fan on Oct 16, 2014 18:47:21 GMT -5
Pauley will be ready for the Oct. 31 match against Washington, but they have a men's basketball game scheduled for that night. So, one last match at Pepperdine. Gee, too bad. So sad.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 18, 2014 0:10:16 GMT -5
No pablo upsets so far, but it was close!
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 18, 2014 0:12:00 GMT -5
Standings:
(4) Stanford 7-0 (3) Washington 7-0 (14) Arizona 5-2 (8) Oregon 5-3 (12) UCLA 5-3 (19) ASU 3-4 (31) Colorado 3-4 (23) OSU 3-4 (20) USC 3-4 (36) Utah 2-5 (62) Cal 0-7 (51) WSU 0-7
(Oct 13 pablo rankings)
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Head-to-head among favorites
Washington: (4-0) [7 remaining: @AZ, @USC, @UCLA, Ore, AZ, ASU, Stan] Stanford: (3-0) [8 remaining: UCLA, USC, @Ore, ASU, AZ, @USC, @UCLA, @UW] Arizona: (2-1) [7 remaining: UW, @Ore, @Stan, Ore, @UW, USC, @ASU] UCLA: (2-2) [6 remaining: @Stan, UW, Stan, @Ore, @ASU, USC] ASU: (1-3) [6 remaining: @Ore, @Stan, Ore, @UW, UCLA, AZ] Oregon: (1-3) [8 remaining: AZ, ASU, Stan, @UW, @AZ, @ASU, UCLA, USC] USC: (0-4) [6 remaining: @Stan, UW, Stan, @Ore, @AZ, @UCLA]
Losses by these teams to others:
Arizona (1): @Colorado ASU (1): @Utah UCLA (1): Colorado
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This week's matches (Pacific times)
Sun: 11am WSU@ASU, OSU@USC, Cal@Col 1pm Stan@Utah 3pm UW@AZ
Bold is pablo favorite.
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Week 5 schedule:
Mountains@Washington, Arizona@Oregon, LA@BayArea
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 18, 2014 0:15:27 GMT -5
Sunday's OSU at USC match will be to see who gets to be at .500 at the end of week 4.
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Post by vbprisoner on Oct 18, 2014 0:22:08 GMT -5
I picked USC in the PTW, but think OSU will win this match if they play like they played tonight against UCLA.
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