bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,440
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 17, 2014 14:55:47 GMT -5
Will new Pablo turn Stanford into a favorite at U-Dub? One would think that only HCA would make U-Dub a favorite... but it might not even do that much. Several U-Dub posters observed that they'd finally been outscored for the first time by Utah, and Pablo is point-driven, so it might call the two matches deuce matches and leave U-Dub more or less where it is. Updated Pablo has Washington with a 52.4% chance of winning (due to HCA). Stanford would have a 54% chance of winning on a neutral court. Pretty close to a tossup and not much different than where it has been most of the year.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 17, 2014 15:03:27 GMT -5
Updated for pablo.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 17, 2014 15:06:01 GMT -5
Will new Pablo turn Stanford into a favorite at U-Dub? One would think that only HCA would make U-Dub a favorite... but it might not even do that much. Several U-Dub posters observed that they'd finally been outscored for the first time by Utah, and Pablo is point-driven, so it might call the two matches deuce matches and leave U-Dub more or less where it is. Updated Pablo has Washington with a 52.4% chance of winning (due to HCA). Stanford would have a 54% chance of winning on a neutral court. Pretty close to a tossup and not much different than where it has been most of the year. Considering that for pretty much the entire year pablo favored Washington even before the HCA, this is a shift. Relative to the gap down to the other PAC schools, though, pablo has had these two teams pretty close all year.
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Post by Cruz'n on Nov 17, 2014 16:18:44 GMT -5
Not sure what Pablo will say, but Stanford made a successful Colorado/Utah road trip without a loss and UW lost at both schools. Stanford is undefeated. UW has 2 losses. If this was a regular Friday or Saturday night match, I might be inclined to give an edge to UW. But it's 5 p.m. on the day before Thanksgiving. Can't imagine many students will be there. And there are plenty of people, like me, that are going to be challenged to make a 5p match on a weekday. I think Stanford has to be favored. Plus, UW can't look past UA & ASU. HAhahahahaha. Nice try, Tom; but no dice: UW is favored, as they should be. You'll probably get 3,000 in there, even being the day before Thanksgiving--and 90% of them will be Dawg fans. Still, I love your attempt at arguing no home court advantage.
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Post by jgrout on Nov 17, 2014 17:06:28 GMT -5
The Huskies team I saw staggering through last weekend would not be a favorite against UA, ASU or Stanford... not even at home. They better revert to form PDQ to live up to their Pablo ranking.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 17, 2014 22:59:51 GMT -5
Fun fact: Taylor Simpson is now the only pin hitter hitting over .300 in conference matches. Carbetbagger! Transfered in to pad her stats against easy opposition.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 18, 2014 0:09:36 GMT -5
Fun fact: Taylor Simpson is now the only pin hitter hitting over .300 in conference matches. Carbetbagger! Transfered in to pad her stats against easy opposition. I was actually wrong. Crissy Jones is also above .300, but she sees about as many sets as a low-producing middle so maybe I wasn't totally inaccurate.
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Post by leftcoaster71 on Nov 18, 2014 0:13:28 GMT -5
Carbetbagger! Transfered in to pad her stats against easy opposition. I was actually wrong. Crissy Jones is also above .300, but she sees about as many sets as a low-producing middle so maybe I wasn't totally inaccurate. And a low producing middle sees more sets than a USC middle?
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 18, 2014 0:16:46 GMT -5
I was actually wrong. Crissy Jones is also above .300, but she sees about as many sets as a low-producing middle so maybe I wasn't totally inaccurate. And a low producing middle sees more sets than a USC middle? Crissy Jones 1.64 kps, Alicia Ogoms 1.56 kps. About the same.
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Post by tomclen on Nov 18, 2014 9:21:09 GMT -5
The biggest head-scratcher for me so far this season is Colorado.
They are able to beat Washington at home. Washington beat UCLA - home and away - in fact crushed UCLA in SoCal like a steamroller over a box of rotted Costco grapes. Yet UCLA goes to Colorado and sweeps the Buffs.
It's almost like the games are being played by college kids.
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Post by azvb on Nov 18, 2014 10:39:52 GMT -5
What? Costco grapes are delicious-never rotten.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 18, 2014 11:36:51 GMT -5
What? Costco grapes are delicious-never rotten. Sure -- when you buy them. But because you have to buy 100 lb at a time, by the end they may be getting a little past their prime.
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Post by whipsometail on Nov 18, 2014 14:53:49 GMT -5
Colorado is one of the most physical teams in the conference. They are far more effective out of the 5-1 and if they pass well, they can take down anyone. Given this reality, home court altitude is even more of an advantage in 4 and 5 set matches... I see them Sweet 16 bound.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 21, 2014 13:09:26 GMT -5
As much as I've been complaining about the TV-driven schedules the last couple years, it felt a little weird this week that there were no matches all week long. But that ends in a few hours.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 21, 2014 16:59:27 GMT -5
Standings:
(3) Stanford 16-0 (5) Washington 14-2 (13) Arizona 10-6 (20) Colorado 9-7 (12) Oregon 9-7 (14) UCLA 9-7 (31) OSU 8-9 (24) ASU 7-9 (25) USC 7-10 (28) Utah 6-10 (63) Cal 1-15 (55) WSU 1-15
(Nov 17 pablo rankings)
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Head-to-head among favorites [Red means current pablo favors opponent in upcoming match.]
Stanford: (10-0) [1 remaining: @UW] Washington: (8-0) [3 remaining: AZ, ASU, Stan] Arizona: (3-4) [3 remaining: @UW, USC, @ASU] ASU: (2-5) [3 remaining: @UW, UCLA, AZ] UCLA: (2-6) [3 remaining: @Ore, @ASU, USC] Oregon: (3-7) [2 remaining: UCLA, USC] USC: (0-7) [3 remaining: @Ore, @AZ, @UCLA]
Losses by these teams to others:
ASU (4): @Utah, @OSU, Colorado, OSU USC (3): @Utah, Cal, @OSU Arizona (2): @Colorado, Colorado UCLA (2): Colorado, @Utah Washington (2): @Colorado, @Utah
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This week's matches (Pacific times)
Fri: 7pm ASU@WSU, Col@Cal 8pm AZ@UW, UCLA@Ore, Utah@Stan
Sat: 7pm AZ@WSU, UCLA@OSU, Col@Stan
Sun: 11am USC@Ore, Utah@Cal, ASU@UW
Bold is pablo favorite.
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Week 10 schedule:
Travel partners play, plus singletons: Oregon@Mountains, BayArea@Washington, LA@Arizona
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