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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 21, 2014 17:00:00 GMT -5
Pablo called it right in Corvalis, as OSU just beat USC.
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Post by jgrout on Nov 21, 2014 17:06:56 GMT -5
The Women just lost to the weakest team remaining on their schedule. Losing to Oregon and Arizona might leave USC with an unclimbable path against UCLA... win and they are .500 overall with a tournament resume that smells like a polecat, lose and they are ineligible.
P.S. Dear Santa... if you let USC in, please have the reindeer fly them to Happy Valley.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 21, 2014 17:16:53 GMT -5
All three of USC's remaining teams are clearly at-large teams. So if they can beat one (or more) of them on the road, then it will be a signal that yes, USC is also a deserving at-large team. If they can't ... well then it won't matter, because they won't have a .500 record.
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Post by jgrout on Nov 21, 2014 17:17:21 GMT -5
Compared to Utah, USC is not a deserving at-large team. I still say the Pac-12 will only get nine teams and USC is clearly the most likely of the nine at-large candidates to be left out if they do not go at least 2-1, which might push someone else down below them. Unless they beat Oregon, 1-2 will not.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 21, 2014 17:20:24 GMT -5
Dude, USC has 6 wins this year against at-large caliber teams, 8 against at-large-"ish". Getting to .500 would make it 9. They have 1 loss to a non-tourney team. USC's profile smells like roses to everyone else on the bubble. They just need to be eligible.
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shark
Sophomore
Posts: 211
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Post by shark on Nov 21, 2014 18:47:42 GMT -5
Compared to Utah, USC is not a deserving at-large team. I still say the Pac-12 will only get nine teams and USC is clearly the most likely of the nine at-large candidates to be left out if they do not go at least 2-1, which might push someone else down below them. Unless they beat Oregon, 1-2 will not. Let's say for arguments sake USC is eligible, which one of the Pac teams misses out if they only take 9? The most likely has to be Utah, yes?
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 21, 2014 19:16:06 GMT -5
Compared to Utah, USC is not a deserving at-large team. I still say the Pac-12 will only get nine teams and USC is clearly the most likely of the nine at-large candidates to be left out if they do not go at least 2-1, which might push someone else down below them. Unless they beat Oregon, 1-2 will not. Let's say for arguments sake USC is eligible, which one of the Pac teams misses out if they only take 9? The most likely has to be Utah, yes? If USC doesn't make the 0.500 criterion, then it opens up another spot for an at-large team. But there is no reason to think it is a tradeoff specifically with Utah. It's not like there is some limit of 9 teams from the PAC.
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shark
Sophomore
Posts: 211
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Post by shark on Nov 21, 2014 20:03:06 GMT -5
Let's say for arguments sake USC is eligible, which one of the Pac teams misses out if they only take 9? The most likely has to be Utah, yes? If USC doesn't make the 0.500 criterion, then it opens up another spot for an at-large team. But there is no reason to think it is a tradeoff specifically with Utah. It's not like there is some limit of 9 teams from the PAC. My thoughts are that if USC is eligible then 10 teams from the Pac will be chosen, I agree, nothing says that there is a limit on number of teams from any particular conference.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 22, 2014 1:56:36 GMT -5
Standings:
(3) Stanford 17-0 (5) Washington 15-2 (13) Arizona 10-7 (20) Colorado 10-7 (12) Oregon 10-7 (14) UCLA 9-8 (24) ASU 8-9 (31) OSU 8-9 (25) USC 7-10 (28) Utah 6-11 (63) Cal 1-16 (55) WSU 1-16
(Nov 17 pablo rankings)
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Head-to-head among favorites [Red means current pablo favors opponent in upcoming match.]
Stanford: (10-0) [1 remaining: @UW] Washington: (9-0) [2 remaining: ASU, Stan] Arizona: (3-5) [2 remaining: USC, @ASU] ASU: (2-5) [3 remaining: @UW, UCLA, AZ] Oregon: (4-7) [1 remaining: USC] UCLA: (2-7) [2 remaining: @ASU, USC] USC: (0-7) [3 remaining: @Ore, @AZ, @UCLA]
Losses by these teams to others:
ASU (4): @Utah, @OSU, Colorado, OSU USC (3): @Utah, Cal, @OSU Arizona (2): @Colorado, Colorado UCLA (2): Colorado, @Utah Washington (2): @Colorado, @Utah
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This week's matches (Pacific times)
Sat: 7pm AZ@WSU, UCLA@OSU, Col@Stan
Sun: 11am USC@Ore, Utah@Cal, ASU@UW
Bold is pablo favorite.
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Week 10 schedule:
Travel partners play, plus singletons: Oregon@Mountains, BayArea@Washington, LA@Arizona
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 22, 2014 1:57:40 GMT -5
Pablo called it all right tonight.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 22, 2014 22:40:53 GMT -5
Well. Clear separation now between Stanford and UW. Also, Arizona has become the latest mole in the whack-a-mole for third place. First place: Entirely in Stanford's control. UW is the only other team that could get there, but they need Stanford to lose a match to someone else. Second place: If UW loses the rest and Arizona wins the rest, there would be a 2-way tie. Otherwise this belongs to either UW or Stanford. Third place through tenth place: Almost anybody could finish anywhere. But for what it's worth, pablo is predicting the gap will continue to open between the teams with the losing records at 7-9 and 6-10 versus the teams with the winning records at 9-7 and 10-6. If so, that means third-sixth would be among Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, and Colorado. Seventh-tenth would be among their travel partners ASU, OSU, USC, and Utah. Eleventh and twelfth place: Cal and WSU play each other in Pullman. Barring further upsets, that looks to be decisive. A quick update after Friday's matches. First and Second now exclusively belong to Stanford and Washington. With a win tonight, Stanford would clinch first place. In order to share in that, Washington needs to beat Stanford and have either Colorado or Cal also beat the Cardinal. Arizona lost Friday, as did UCLA. Oregon and Colorado won. That left Arizona, Oregon, and Colorado tied for third.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 23, 2014 1:11:06 GMT -5
Standings:
(3) Stanford 18-0 (5) Washington 15-2 (13) Arizona 11-7 (12) Oregon 10-7 (20) Colorado 10-8 (14) UCLA 10-8 (24) ASU 8-9 (31) OSU 8-10 (25) USC 7-10 (28) Utah 6-11 (63) Cal 1-16 (55) WSU 1-17
(Nov 17 pablo rankings)
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Head-to-head among favorites [Red means current pablo favors opponent in upcoming match.]
Stanford: (10-0) [1 remaining: @UW] Washington: (9-0) [2 remaining: ASU, Stan] Arizona: (3-5) [2 remaining: USC, @ASU] ASU: (2-5) [3 remaining: @UW, UCLA, AZ] Oregon: (4-7) [1 remaining: USC] UCLA: (2-7) [2 remaining: @ASU, USC] USC: (0-7) [3 remaining: @Ore, @AZ, @UCLA]
Losses by these teams to others:
ASU (4): @Utah, @OSU, Colorado, OSU USC (3): @Utah, Cal, @OSU Arizona (2): @Colorado, Colorado UCLA (2): Colorado, @Utah Washington (2): @Colorado, @Utah
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This week's matches (Pacific times)
Sun: 11am USC@Ore, Utah@Cal, ASU@UW
Bold is pablo favorite.
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Week 10 schedule:
Travel partners play, plus singletons: Oregon@Mountains, BayArea@Washington, LA@Arizona
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 23, 2014 1:15:22 GMT -5
Pablo still perfect for the week.
Congrats to Stanford for winning the 2014 PAC-12 title. Washington has a very unlikely path to being co-champs, but no matter what happens Stanford can not drop below first place.
Arizona barely escaped Pullman, but they are now solidly in third place. Oregon could tie them for that tomorrow with a win over USC in Eugene.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 23, 2014 16:42:24 GMT -5
Standings:
(3) Stanford 18-0 (5) Washington 16-2 (13) Arizona 11-7 (12) Oregon 11-7 (20) Colorado 10-8 (14) UCLA 10-8 (24) ASU 8-10 (31) OSU 8-10 (25) USC 7-11 (28) Utah 7-11 (63) Cal 1-17 (55) WSU 1-17
(Nov 17 pablo rankings)
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Head-to-head among favorites [Red means current pablo favors opponent in upcoming match.]
Stanford: (10-0) [1 remaining: @UW] Washington: (10-0) [1 remaining: Stan] Oregon: (5-7) [0 remaining] Arizona: (3-5) [2 remaining: USC, @ASU] ASU: (2-6) [2 remaining: UCLA, AZ] UCLA: (2-6) [2 remaining: @ASU, USC] USC: (0-8) [2 remaining: @AZ, @UCLA]
Losses by these teams to others:
ASU (4): @Utah, @OSU, Colorado, OSU USC (3): @Utah, Cal, @OSU Arizona (2): @Colorado, Colorado UCLA (2): Colorado, @Utah Washington (2): @Colorado, @Utah
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Week 10 schedule:
Travel partners play, plus singletons: Oregon@Mountains, BayArea@Washington, LA@Arizona
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 23, 2014 16:47:27 GMT -5
Well, pablo was perfect for the PAC this week.
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