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Post by FreeBall on Nov 20, 2014 10:29:13 GMT -5
Mid majors that play conference tourneys the last weekend do a disservice to their schools. Just ask WKU about last year...they definitely got bit by the committee only holding 1 spot for the conference champ. UALR has a similar risk, with a slightly lesser resume than WKU had last year. If they are going to lose in the sun belt tourney it would probably be better to go out round 1 than in the final. The wins they would pick up in the QF and SF would be of no RPI help and a loss at any point would be of equal penalty. Lose earlier and the committee might squeak them in as an at large and send them to Texas in round 1. They might get sent to Texas, but Little Rock is more than 400 miles from Austin. So, I think it is probably unlikely.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 20, 2014 11:07:08 GMT -5
Questions & Discussion-Is Southern Methodist a pretender or contender? Not a bad team. But the Oklahoma win won't be enough. The WCC teams have more to offset a loss to USF. Pretender.-Does LSU get a pass for losing to 200+RPI Mississippi State? Yes, but they have 3 chances to lose their way out now. 1 more loss will do it. -How many bids from the ACC? 4-What on earth do you do with Miami(FL)? This is the same team that last year, I thought was actually shafted by the RPI and better than their ranking. I argued they were a better candidate than Tulsa, Butler, and UCLA who all three had better RPI rankings. They shouldn't have been in last year, one of last teams in and took a deserved spot from St. Mary's (weren't competitive in the 1st round either). That RPI is awfully high though. Depends on how ballsy the committee is feeling - likely not very so they'll get it-How many (or should any) of the mid-major projected AQ's (Lipscomb, Western Kentucky, UALR, Ohio, Illinois State) get into the NCAA tournament if they lose their conference tournament? Hard to say at this point. Signs point to no, but each team has 1 or 2 good wins to point to.....-Who gets in from the B1G? Purdue looks to be the best candidate over Northwestern, Minnesota, and Michigan State. Those four teams combined only have one win over a top-25 team, and that is Northwestern over Illinois. Whichever of MSU, Minny and Purdue wins out. Northwestern is done for already -Is Baylor still alive? Or will it take wins over Texas & Iowa State to come back to life? Even if they win out, do they get in? No-I don't think Creighton should even be on the bubble, but for some reason I included them. Well in-Do Seton Hall, Xavier, UNLV, or Virginia Tech have any chances or are they all out of consideration? Not without an auto bid. I could be wrong about Virginia Tech though, their wins do pop.-Is CSUN's resume good enough if they win out? Easily.-Will it really be 10 from the PAC? Could you really leave out Utah? USC is in danger of being .500. Utah is in as long as they don't lose to Cal. Arizona St. would actually be feeling pretty uneasy if they lost in Pullman (which is very possible). -Is there any west coast love? Is Pacific's resume good enough to sneak into consideration? If San Diego drops one of their last matches, are they out? Are they in even if they win out? San Diego is out with a loss, and might take Pacific out with them because of H2H. Pacific needs to beat LMU; otherwise they need others to falter (it could happen)
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 20, 2014 11:40:25 GMT -5
Questions & Discussion-Is Southern Methodist a pretender or contender? Not a bad team. But the Oklahoma win won't be enough. The WCC teams have more to offset a loss to USF. Pretender.-Does LSU get a pass for losing to 200+RPI Mississippi State? Yes, but they have 3 chances to lose their way out now. 1 more loss will do it. -How many bids from the ACC? 4-What on earth do you do with Miami(FL)? This is the same team that last year, I thought was actually shafted by the RPI and better than their ranking. I argued they were a better candidate than Tulsa, Butler, and UCLA who all three had better RPI rankings. They shouldn't have been in last year, one of last teams in and took a deserved spot from St. Mary's (weren't competitive in the 1st round either). That RPI is awfully high though. Depends on how ballsy the committee is feeling - likely not very so they'll get it-How many (or should any) of the mid-major projected AQ's (Lipscomb, Western Kentucky, UALR, Ohio, Illinois State) get into the NCAA tournament if they lose their conference tournament? Hard to say at this point. Signs point to no, but each team has 1 or 2 good wins to point to.....-Who gets in from the B1G? Purdue looks to be the best candidate over Northwestern, Minnesota, and Michigan State. Those four teams combined only have one win over a top-25 team, and that is Northwestern over Illinois. Whichever of MSU, Minny and Purdue wins out. Northwestern is done for already -Is Baylor still alive? Or will it take wins over Texas & Iowa State to come back to life? Even if they win out, do they get in? No-I don't think Creighton should even be on the bubble, but for some reason I included them. Well in-Do Seton Hall, Xavier, UNLV, or Virginia Tech have any chances or are they all out of consideration? Not without an auto bid. I could be wrong about Virginia Tech though, their wins do pop.-Is CSUN's resume good enough if they win out? Easily.-Will it really be 10 from the PAC? Could you really leave out Utah? USC is in danger of being .500. Utah is in as long as they don't lose to Cal. Arizona St. would actually be feeling pretty uneasy if they lost in Pullman (which is very possible). -Is there any west coast love? Is Pacific's resume good enough to sneak into consideration? If San Diego drops one of their last matches, are they out? Are they in even if they win out? San Diego is out with a loss, and might take Pacific out with them because of H2H. Pacific needs to beat LMU; otherwise they need others to falter (it could happen) Nice questions and answers. So Northridge is 'Easily' in and Miami is probably in, but not deserving. As mentioned in another thread, these two teams have very similar resumes. Miami has the better RPI (and Pablo rating), while Northridge has more wins against the top 50. Miami has the better record (18-7 vs. 16-8), and their bad losses are not quite as bad (Missouri State & TCU vs. UC Davis & UCSB). Both teams will have a hard time winning their last 4 matches. Northridge has the win against the only common opponent (UALR) and Miami the loss.
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Post by pepperbrooks on Nov 20, 2014 11:49:46 GMT -5
I just can't imagine that Purdue is in danger of not making it. Yeah, RPI stinks, but they're in 4th place in the B1G.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 20, 2014 11:55:04 GMT -5
Nice questions and answers. So Northridge is 'Easily' in and Miami is probably in, but not deserving. As mentioned in another thread, these two teams have very similar resumes. Miami has the better RPI (and Pablo rating), while Northridge has more wins against the top 50. Miami has the better record (18-7 vs. 16-8), and their bad losses are not quite as bad (Missouri State & TCU vs. UC Davis & UCSB). Both teams will have a hard time winning their last 4 matches. Northridge has the win against the only common opponent (UALR) and Miami the loss. I don't know why you insist on saying the resumes are similar. The top 50 wins are huge because it gets straight to the point that Northridge has beaten people, while Miami hasn't. Miami's best win is Pitt without their L1 (and as that injury gets priced into Pitt's results, that's not going to look as good either).
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Post by elevationvb on Nov 20, 2014 12:21:02 GMT -5
Well, some top 25 wins are more top than others, and Baylor's aren't. It's safe for the Bears to make other plans for early December. You know that makes no sense right? In fact they would all 3 be Top 20 wins. The committee looks at Top 25 wins. And from what I looked up no Big 12 team has won 3 top 25 matches and not gotten in. I'll admit they still may not get in, it all depends if they can win both matches and where their rpi ends up. If it's inside 50 and with 3 top 20 wins historically that would be a go. But who knows. Put your homer glasses away. It's embarrassing to make the case for a team that is 4-10 in an average conference - - 1 game from last place!
Only a homer manipulates statistics to make a misleading case. It's just a shame that Baylor had to play the other 20 matches!
At the very least, Baylor needs to be looking for a new coach.
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Post by dorothymantooth on Nov 20, 2014 13:32:28 GMT -5
I just can't imagine that Purdue is in danger of not making it. Yeah, RPI stinks, but they're in 4th place in the B1G. I believe Purdue will get in, but where they finish in the conference isn't a criteria.
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Post by pepperbrooks on Nov 20, 2014 13:36:51 GMT -5
I just can't imagine that Purdue is in danger of not making it. Yeah, RPI stinks, but they're in 4th place in the B1G. I believe Purdue will get in, but where they finish in the conference isn't a criteria. Yeah I know, but I feel subconsciously that would weigh on a committee member's mind.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 20, 2014 13:43:44 GMT -5
Nice questions and answers. So Northridge is 'Easily' in and Miami is probably in, but not deserving. As mentioned in another thread, these two teams have very similar resumes. Miami has the better RPI (and Pablo rating), while Northridge has more wins against the top 50. Miami has the better record (18-7 vs. 16-8), and their bad losses are not quite as bad (Missouri State & TCU vs. UC Davis & UCSB). Both teams will have a hard time winning their last 4 matches. Northridge has the win against the only common opponent (UALR) and Miami the loss. I don't know why you insist on saying the resumes are similar. The top 50 wins are huge because it gets straight to the point that Northridge has beaten people, while Miami hasn't. Miami's best win is Pitt without their L1 (and as that injury gets priced into Pitt's results, that's not going to look as good either). I did say that if you go by Top 50 wins, then edge to Northridge. But I don't know why this starts to become the most important (or important) factor. Top 50 wins can be function of opportunity. Miami has played 5 top 50 teams (6 if you count Va. Tech). 4 of the 5 games were on the road (Wisconsin, UNC, Duke, Pittsburgh) and 1 at home (Florida State). They went 1-4 in those 5 matches. Northridge has played has played 9 against the top 50 and has won 3. Of their 10 top 50 matches, 5 were on the road (Arizona, LBSU, San Diego, Oklahoma & Hawaii), with San Diego being the lone win. 2 were at home (Hawaii & LBSU) - they split those two matches and 2 were on nuetral floors (Stanford & W.Kentucky) with a win against Western Kentucky. I just don't see much difference here other than Northridge had more/better opportunities. If we cared so much about top 50 wins (which the committee may very well do), then we would conclude that Kansas State and Iowa State are better than BYU even if they end up with the same RPI. Yet if you start relating wins and losses to actual opportunities, it becomes easy to recognize that BYU is the better team. Makes me think of how opportunity can badly influence opinions - Don Mattingly won the AL MVP in 1985 mostly because he led the AL in RBI's with 145. However, he had Ricky Henderson and Willie Randolph hitting in front of him and his large number of RBI's were a function of people getting on base ahead of him. In the same year, George Brett had only 112 RBI's. However, when you dug deeper into the numbers, George Brett was far superior at driving in Runs that year, but suffered from much less opportunity.
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Post by FreeBall on Nov 20, 2014 13:55:23 GMT -5
I just can't imagine that Purdue is in danger of not making it. Yeah, RPI stinks, but they're in 4th place in the B1G. Just a minor quibble, but Purdue is not in 4th place anymore.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 20, 2014 14:16:56 GMT -5
I don't know why you insist on saying the resumes are similar. The top 50 wins are huge because it gets straight to the point that Northridge has beaten people, while Miami hasn't. Miami's best win is Pitt without their L1 (and as that injury gets priced into Pitt's results, that's not going to look as good either). I did say that if you go by Top 50 wins, then edge to Northridge. But I don't know why this starts to become the most important (or important) factor. Top 50 wins can be function of opportunity. Miami has played 5 top 50 teams (6 if you count Va. Tech). 4 of the 5 games were on the road (Wisconsin, UNC, Duke, Pittsburgh) and 1 at home (Florida State). They went 1-4 in those 5 matches. Northridge has played has played 9 against the top 50 and has won 3. Of their 10 top 50 matches, 5 were on the road (Arizona, LBSU, San Diego, Oklahoma & Hawaii), with San Diego being the lone win. 2 were at home (Hawaii & LBSU) - they split those two matches and 2 were on nuetral floors (Stanford & W.Kentucky) with a win against Western Kentucky. I just don't see much difference here other than Northridge had more/better opportunities. If we cared so much about top 50 wins (which the committee may very well do), then we would conclude that Kansas State and Iowa State are better than BYU even if they end up with the same RPI. Yet if you start relating wins and losses to actual opportunities, it becomes easy to recognize that BYU is the better team. Makes me think of how opportunity can badly influence opinions - Don Mattingly won the AL MVP in 1985 mostly because he led the AL in RBI's with 145. However, he had Ricky Henderson and Willie Randolph hitting in front of him and his large number of RBI's were a function of people getting on base ahead of him. In the same year, George Brett had only 112 RBI's. However, when you dug deeper into the numbers, George Brett was far superior at driving in Runs that year, but suffered from much less opportunity. Top 50 wins can be a function of opportunity but the fact is that Miami has had ample opportunity to play and beat quality teams. And they haven't. Miami hasn't beaten a team as good as Hawaii, home or away, or WKU or San Diego. You also left out the Top 50 (by RPI or Pablo) common opponent - UALR - which Northridge (75-52 in points!) beat but Miami wasn't even close to winning. Come on. I submit that in order to "deserve" a tourney berth, you have to show some kind of ability to beat tournament caliber teams, at least enough to offset losses against non-tournament caliber teams (which Miami has). Northridge has done that, Miami hasn't. And actually, BYU/K-State/Iowa St. all have the same number of Top 50 wins (and I'm the first to say you need to take Big XII RPI ratings with a grain of salt). And looking at the slate of losses, it actually becomes pretty clear they look better by not having sub-100 losses like Iowa St. So not sure where you are going with that analogy. Mind you, when I say one of those teams will probably be seeded, I'm looking at what the Committee will probably do, not what I agree with. I don't think any of the three should be seeded in an ideal world. (And while BYU is a notch or two above both those Big XII teams in quality, you actually need to look at their profile again. There's not as much meat there as you think, and the sum of what they've done on the road is quite lacking)
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Post by dorothymantooth on Nov 20, 2014 14:24:39 GMT -5
I believe Purdue will get in, but where they finish in the conference isn't a criteria. Yeah I know, but I feel subconsciously that would weigh on a committee member's mind. I don't think, and certainly hope it doesn't work that way. They like all teams will have to meet the criteria, for whatever that's worth.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 20, 2014 14:58:50 GMT -5
I did say that if you go by Top 50 wins, then edge to Northridge. But I don't know why this starts to become the most important (or important) factor. Top 50 wins can be function of opportunity. Miami has played 5 top 50 teams (6 if you count Va. Tech). 4 of the 5 games were on the road (Wisconsin, UNC, Duke, Pittsburgh) and 1 at home (Florida State). They went 1-4 in those 5 matches. Northridge has played has played 9 against the top 50 and has won 3. Of their 10 top 50 matches, 5 were on the road (Arizona, LBSU, San Diego, Oklahoma & Hawaii), with San Diego being the lone win. 2 were at home (Hawaii & LBSU) - they split those two matches and 2 were on nuetral floors (Stanford & W.Kentucky) with a win against Western Kentucky. I just don't see much difference here other than Northridge had more/better opportunities. If we cared so much about top 50 wins (which the committee may very well do), then we would conclude that Kansas State and Iowa State are better than BYU even if they end up with the same RPI. Yet if you start relating wins and losses to actual opportunities, it becomes easy to recognize that BYU is the better team. Makes me think of how opportunity can badly influence opinions - Don Mattingly won the AL MVP in 1985 mostly because he led the AL in RBI's with 145. However, he had Ricky Henderson and Willie Randolph hitting in front of him and his large number of RBI's were a function of people getting on base ahead of him. In the same year, George Brett had only 112 RBI's. However, when you dug deeper into the numbers, George Brett was far superior at driving in Runs that year, but suffered from much less opportunity. Top 50 wins can be a function of opportunity but the fact is that Miami has had ample opportunity to play and beat quality teams. And they haven't. Miami hasn't beaten a team as good as Hawaii, home or away, or WKU or San Diego. You also left out the Top 50 (by RPI or Pablo) common opponent - UALR - which Northridge (75-52 in points!) beat but Miami wasn't even close to winning. Come on. I submit that in order to "deserve" a tourney berth, you have to show some kind of ability to beat tournament caliber teams, at least enough to offset losses against non-tournament caliber teams (which Miami has). Northridge has done that, Miami hasn't. And actually, BYU/K-State/Iowa St. all have the same number of Top 50 wins (and I'm the first to say you need to take Big XII RPI ratings with a grain of salt). And looking at the slate of losses, it actually becomes pretty clear they look better by not having sub-100 losses like Iowa St. So not sure where you are going with that analogy. Mind you, when I say one of those teams will probably be seeded, I'm looking at what the Committee will probably do, not what I agree with. I don't think any of the three should be seeded in an ideal world. (And while BYU is a notch or two above both those Big XII teams in quality, you actually need to look at their profile again. There's not as much meat there as you think, and the sum of what they've done on the road is quite lacking) What we think the committee will do: We both think that CSNU is in and at this point with a sub 30 RPI, I think Miami is in and I kind of think you also believe that they will be in. I don't think either Iowa State or Kansas State will get a seed - and that BYU will get a seed if they win out. Sounds like you are leaning that Iowa State is looking decent for a seed and BYU is a longshot. But for me - I am usually wrong when trying to guess what the committee will do. What do we think should be done: I think BYU has a better (throwing out RPI) resume than Iowa State and should clearly be a seed. I am guessing that you also believe BYU has played better than Iowa State this year, but that their lack of quality wins makes them not worthy of a seed? You think Cal State Northridge should be a lock for a bid and there is no way in the world that Miami deserves a bid. I think both teams are clearly worthy of a bid and that there really isn't all that much different between the teams. The illusion of CSNU having more (any) quality wins is mostly a product of opportunity. Duke and Hawaii are essentially the same team - CSNU beat Hawaii at home (and lost to them on the road), while Miami didn't get an opportunity to play Duke at home and lost to them on the road. The only top team that Miami had on their schedule at Home was Florida State - and they lost to Florida State. A lot of very good teams have lost to Florida State this year. Cal State Northridge got LBSU at home and also lost. Pittsburgh and San Deigo are essentially the same team - and Miami and CSNU both beat them on the road. I do agree that UALR is a difference in CSNU's favor, but then Miami also has a better record. I see nothing wrong with BYU's resume that doesn't warrent a seed. I am not saying it has to be a top 12, but I will stack their work relative to who they played with anyone else outside the top 12-13 teams.
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Post by gogophers on Nov 20, 2014 15:27:59 GMT -5
Questions & Discussion-Who gets in from the B1G? Purdue looks to be the best candidate over Northwestern, Minnesota, and Michigan State. Those four teams combined only have one win over a top-25 team, and that is Northwestern over Illinois. Whichever of MSU, Minny and Purdue wins out. Northwestern is done for already Minn beat ISU. Isn't ISU a top 25 team, according to RPI?
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Nov 20, 2014 15:38:46 GMT -5
Nice questions and answers. So Northridge is 'Easily' in and Miami is probably in, but not deserving. As mentioned in another thread, these two teams have very similar resumes. Miami has the better RPI (and Pablo rating), while Northridge has more wins against the top 50. Miami has the better record (18-7 vs. 16-8), and their bad losses are not quite as bad (Missouri State & TCU vs. UC Davis & UCSB). Both teams will have a hard time winning their last 4 matches. Northridge has the win against the only common opponent (UALR) and Miami the loss. yet another problem with compounding flaws of RPI by using it for W/L. Northridge's losses really aren't bad losses compared to TCU or Mizzou State ? only because RPI says so? bad losses is one of the worse things they can look at - or they should up the RPI for what they consider a bad loss Cal & Washington State would be a bad loss - but those aren't bad teams
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