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Post by c4ndlelight on Apr 10, 2015 22:38:34 GMT -5
Stanford beat Oregon 3-2 in exciting match that came down to the final third set between the 2s, with Bugg & Vanjak winning 16-14. Vanjak really hammered the ball when she got a good set. Stanford 1s and 3s won 2-0, while Oregon's 4s and 5s won their matches. St. Marys also beat Oregon 3-2. So close, yet so far.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 11, 2015 20:51:28 GMT -5
Right now Pepperdine is in as the third team from the West, and it's not even that close. Pepp has played a difficult schedule, and all of their four losses are of the "good" variety - each a 3-2 loss to a high ranked team. Arizona's schedule is a joke. Could something change between now and the last weekend of April? Maybe, like UA beating USC along with Pepp taking a bad loss, but Pepperdine is in the drivers seat right now. Arizona might have a shot at the at-large, but their weak schedule hurts them. So exactly what criteria do you have Pep ahead in, since you don't think it is close? Unless they have changed the criteria from last season, it is a toss-up. Arizona does NOT need to beat USC (since Pep didn't), they might just need to beat UCLA. Do I think Pep is the better team from having watched both multiple times? Yes. Do I pretend to know how the committee will vote with criteria being close? No. FYI the committee will NOT look at how close a loss was, nor at a teams ranking, as you allude to above.
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Post by geddyleeridesagain on Apr 11, 2015 22:57:00 GMT -5
Right now Pepperdine is in as the third team from the West, and it's not even that close. Pepp has played a difficult schedule, and all of their four losses are of the "good" variety - each a 3-2 loss to a high ranked team. Arizona's schedule is a joke. Could something change between now and the last weekend of April? Maybe, like UA beating USC along with Pepp taking a bad loss, but Pepperdine is in the drivers seat right now. Arizona might have a shot at the at-large, but their weak schedule hurts them. So exactly what criteria do you have Pep ahead in, since you don't think it is close? Unless they have changed the criteria from last season, it is a toss-up. Arizona does NOT need to beat USC (since Pep didn't), they might just need to beat UCLA. Do I think Pep is the better team from having watched both multiple times? Yes. Do I pretend to know how the committee will vote with criteria being close? No. FYI the committee will NOT look at how close a loss was, nor at a teams ranking, as you allude to above.They've certainly taken close wins/losses into consideration in the past, I don't know why they wouldn't this season. It was a factor in the decision to take FIU ahead of Georgia St last season. And to clarify, I never said that AVCA ranking matters. It's been discussed, but never used. I did say that I wasn't sure if it would be considered on a going forward basis, as the selection criteria has been an evolutionary process since the first year. I would hope rankings wouldn't be considered, but I haven't to date taken a look at the 2015 bid specs. And for some reason, you're ignoring Arizona's schedule. They haven't played anybody. And they lost to Nebraska, who doesn't even take beach seriously. I do like the twins, they've improved by leaps and bounds since high school. And Kingdon/O'Leary are athletic enough to be very dangerous, particularly on the hard-packed launching pad in Tucson (it will be interesting to see how they fare in the Hermosa quicksand). But overall, I agree that Pepp is better. Now, I will say that I don't think he selection committee has always gotten it right in the past, and there are two new members of the committee, one of them replacing the single most knowledgeable person in the sport. So in retrospect I probably shouldn't use absolutes in respect to Pepp. At the same time, it would be a travesty for UA to get a bid ahead of the Waves.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 12, 2015 1:21:14 GMT -5
Well I know that close losses are not in the criteria, and I know people on the committee who say it hasn't been used. And there is no "close loss" by FIU that got them in last year anyways. They split evenly with GSU and only other loss was 1-4 to FSU.
I have said twice in the last two pages that Arizona is losing the strength of schedule - I am not ignoring that.
You did say "Pepp has played a difficult schedule, and all of their four losses are of the "good" variety - each a 3-2 loss to a high ranked team." - i.e. a close loss to a RANKED team. Exactly what ranking were you referring to? DIG?
And by your prior logic isn't Nebraska a good team since they lost 3-2 to Hawaii? Like Pepp?
I will agree that Pepp has the inside track to the 3rd West bid, but UA could make it very tight with a win over UCLA. With there being no head to head play, common opponents being a wash, and a split between strength of schedule and W/L records, the committee will need to go deep on criteria list to decide.
Looking closer at the at-large possibilities, it appears Pepp is ahead on criteria of everyone else that could end up there, so they are probably in even if UA upsets USC.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 12, 2015 1:56:39 GMT -5
Have to think LBSU is still in a strong position for that 4th spot. The east is pretty much set unless something funny happens with Stetson and the ASUN qualifier, which would push them into those 3 East spots and FSU into the at-large situation. I don't think anyone else is really running enough of a schedule to have much of an argument. UCLA would really have to beat Long Beach in their upcoming match and beat UH or USC in the upcoming weeks to have a legit resume. If Stetson does not win the ASUN tourney, I think that FSU would still get the 3rd East bid via their head to head win over Stetson. That would put Stetson into the at-large picture.
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Post by geddyleeridesagain on Apr 12, 2015 12:15:55 GMT -5
Well I know that close losses are not in the criteria, and I know people on the committee who say it hasn't been used. And there is no "close loss" by FIU that got them in last year anyways. They split evenly with GSU and only other loss was 1-4 to FSU. I have said twice in the last two pages that Arizona is losing the strength of schedule - I am not ignoring that. You did say "Pepp has played a difficult schedule, and all of their four losses are of the "good" variety - each a 3-2 loss to a high ranked team." - i.e. a close loss to a RANKED team. Exactly what ranking were you referring to? DIG? And by your prior logic isn't Nebraska a good team since they lost 3-2 to Hawaii? Like Pepp? I will agree that Pepp has the inside track to the 3rd West bid, but UA could make it very tight with a win over UCLA. With there being no head to head play, common opponents being a wash, and a split between strength of schedule and W/L records, the committee will need to go deep on criteria list to decide. Looking closer at the at-large possibilities, it appears Pepp is ahead on criteria of everyone else that could end up there, so they are probably in even if UA upsets USC. Oh, I see where you're coming from now - Pepperdine's losses have come at the hands of USC, Hawaii, and FIU, all of which are locks for the tournament and will be the top three seeds in some order. Using the term "ranked" was was lazy on my part, I suppose. Hawaii letting Nebraska get close doesn't reflect that well on the Wahine, IMO. I'm not impressed by Nebraska. Actually, outside of USC and perhaps FIU, I think it's a bit of a down year in general. But that's probably a different conversation.
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Post by montechello on Apr 12, 2015 13:10:30 GMT -5
Actually, outside of USC and perhaps FIU, I think it's a bit of a down year in general. But that's probably a different conversation. Funny and sort of true. A down year in an emerging sport. But it's not really down. It just hasn't ever been up. The quality goes about five or six teams deep each year. USC, Pepperdine, Long Beach, Hawaii, Florida State, and Florida International. Quality play. It's sketchy after that. UCLA and Nebraska can be in the mix simply by showing up with their athletes.
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Post by geddyleeridesagain on Apr 12, 2015 15:49:57 GMT -5
Actually, outside of USC and perhaps FIU, I think it's a bit of a down year in general. But that's probably a different conversation. Funny and sort of true. A down year in an emerging sport. But it's not really down. It just hasn't ever been up. The quality goes about five or six teams deep each year. USC, Pepperdine, Long Beach, Hawaii, Florida State, and Florida International. Quality play. It's sketchy after that. UCLA and Nebraska can be in the mix simply by showing up with their athletes. There's some truth to that, yeah. But I was thinking, and maybe it's just my perception, more along the lines of a number of good players from 2014 having moved on via graduation or injury (Burnham) without being replaced by players of equal or greater skill. As for collegiate beach in general, I wouldn't expect a straight-line improvement each successive season in terms of overall quality. There are going be some ups and downs as the sport finds itself, for lack of a better term. The schools that went all-in immediately had an early advantage in coaching and recruiting, but things will even out (although there will probably always be a couple of perennial powerhouses, like USC) over time.
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Post by FOBRA on Apr 13, 2015 12:20:58 GMT -5
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Post by johnbar on Apr 13, 2015 21:00:35 GMT -5
Yep. Stanford (and AFAIK, the other NorCal schools) are not giving any sand scholarships yet. Mostly using indoor coaches. But Stanford has a nice facility, and I expect they will put more money into the program soon.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Apr 22, 2015 10:01:47 GMT -5
Oregon beats Oregon St. 3-2.
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Post by pnw_mark on Apr 22, 2015 11:23:25 GMT -5
Interesting that Nebraska would get the at Large birth instead of Long Beach State if we went by the Computer Rankings.
Also Pacific who were ranked as high as #8 looks to be overrated.
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Post by johnbar on Apr 22, 2015 12:22:34 GMT -5
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 22, 2015 14:31:08 GMT -5
Yeah, I wonder if Mike Dodd is still helping them as a volunteer? If not, that might explain the drop from last season. They only lost a couple of players from last season, I think.
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Post by FOBRA on Apr 22, 2015 14:41:11 GMT -5
Yeah, I wonder if Mike Dodd is still helping them as a volunteer? If not, that might explain the drop from last season. They only lost a couple of players from last season, I think. I don't think he is. At the UCLA/St. Mary's match he seemed very much a parent/spectator. I thought I saw his name doing some other coaching function this year (club or high school?) but I may be mis-remembering.
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