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Post by vbshrink on Aug 17, 2015 19:23:27 GMT -5
Alabama lost a MB who started a few matches but otherwise returns everyone, including two members of the (admittedly large) All-SEC team (Hutson, Rivers) and a POY candidate (Rivers). Leah Lawrence also had a standout freshman season last year. KY lost both O'Connor and Napper, both All-SEC players. I think Bama is a very good choice for #2 behind the Gators, and TAMU will be a distant fourth, imo. A little discussion of each team here, if you're interested: volleytalk.net/thread/59288/sec-2015-thread-forecasting-season Curious as to why you think TAMU will be a distant fourth? [snip] If passing/termination from OH positions can improve buy say 20% I would say they could be #2 in conference with a possible seed come NCAA tourney time to avoid going to Austin for the 17th consecutive year it seems Because I think that's a really big "if." Also, I think their ball control from libero spot is very suspect, which is tough for a team that is going to live and die by the middle attack (which is outstanding on this team). If they get the improvement you're suggesting, though, I think they will definitely be better than 4th. As for LSU - I see them battling Arkansas and Mizzou for 5th. I think losing Holman, the setter, and having unanswered questions in the middle will be too much to overcome to keep them near the top.
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Post by VBintents on Aug 17, 2015 22:24:52 GMT -5
Alabama lost a MB who started a few matches but otherwise returns everyone, including two members of the (admittedly large) All-SEC team (Hutson, Rivers) and a POY candidate (Rivers). Leah Lawrence also had a standout freshman season last year. KY lost both O'Connor and Napper, both All-SEC players. I think Bama is a very good choice for #2 behind the Gators, and TAMU will be a distant fourth, imo. A little discussion of each team here, if you're interested: volleytalk.net/thread/59288/sec-2015-thread-forecasting-season Curious as to why you think TAMU will be a distant fourth? I am not disagreeing with that placement just trying to figure out reasoning with all starters including libero as well coming back? I don't think they lose to LSU this year and if they can stop the outside from Alabama from having a field day while shutting out Rivers on the RS then I think they could be second behind Florida this season. The non conference schedule is one of the best the Corbelli's have put together in quite some time. If passing/termination from OH positions can improve buy say 20% I would say they could be #2 in conference with a possible seed come NCAA tourney time to avoid going to Austin for the 17th consecutive year it seems TAMU-Not sure passing ended up being too much of an issue with one middle hitting a .400 and the other hitting a .374. Not having either of the two starting OH hitting above a .172 is a whole different subject, especially since they have plenty of one on one opportunities. If TAMU can get more out of the outsides, 2nd will not be a question. Anybody know what the incoming freshman will bring?
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Post by AllVbFan on Aug 18, 2015 7:37:47 GMT -5
Unfortunately a non-factor.
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Post by nakedcrayon on Aug 18, 2015 9:18:13 GMT -5
Kaitlyn Blake is the lone freshman that I think could make any impact on this season for the Aggies. She can play multiple positions and could be an attacking option off the bench. That said I think the team that was on the court last year at season's end is the same team you will see this season with the caveat that no injuries occur
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Post by AllVbFan on Aug 18, 2015 9:42:29 GMT -5
Totally agreed, but I don't think they are even using Kaitlyn in the OH position in practice. They also have a 6'7" kid from Mexico City coming in. Paper work still being completed but should be in College Station by the time school starts.
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Post by nakedcrayon on Aug 18, 2015 10:01:15 GMT -5
I would expect the back up at OH to be Kierra McGee a hard hitting sophomore who needs to improve defense/passing to get solid playing time. Don't think she could crack the lineup as an OH based upon those two facets which surprisingly are the things I am most concerned about. Don't know much about the new kids this year but saw we lost a lot of our depth from last year either due to graduation or transfer
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Post by mclvbdad on Aug 18, 2015 13:33:32 GMT -5
Built this from the database provided by RickKern. Took the losses to graduation and added the transfer losses as rosters were updated. The percent lost is just a simple average of Kills, Assists, Digs, Aces and Blocks. Team | 2014 Standing | % Lost Graduation | % Lost Graduation and Transfer | 2014 Conf | 2014 All | Florida | 1 | 21.9
| 23.5 | 18-0 | 25-3 | Kentucky | 2 | 23.7 | 37.3 | 15-3 | 26-5 | LSU | 3 | 32.0 | 48.1 | 14-4 | 19-8 | Alabama | 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 13-5 | 25-7 | Texas A&M | 4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 13-5 | 21-8 | Arkansas | 6 | 17.3 | 30.5 | 9-9 | 15-16 | Ole Miss | 7 | 18.9 | 19.5 | 8-10 | 22-10 | Missouri | 8 | 24.8 | 42.4 | 7-11 | 16-17 | South Carolina | 8 | 11.5 | 55.2 | 7-11 | 17-14 | Georgia | 10 | 56.9 | 56.9 | 5-13 | 14-17 | Auburn | 10 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 5-13 | 13-18 | Mississippi State | 12 | 2.6 | 23.5 | 2-16 | 7-26 | Tennessee | 13 | 4.4 | 25.7 | 1-17 | 8-24 |
Florida looks like a good bet to win the SEC again but I don't think they will be as dominate as they were last year. Last year they could play poorly and still win. This year I think they will be challenged more, especially if their serve receive shows any inconsistency. 2nd-4th should be a season long battle between UK, Bama and A&M. The unbalanced schedule of the SEC will raise its ugly head here and I think be a considerable factor. UK has the most difficult schedule playing UF, A&M and Bama twice. Bama has the easiest playing UF and A&M once, both on the road, and UK twice. A&M plays UF and UK twice and Bama once. My prediction is that Bama will finish second, A&M third and UK fourth. Bama and A&M return most of their starters while the unexpected loss of Workman leaves UK with only 3 upperclassmen on their roster. 5th through 7th will be Ole Miss, Missouri and Arkansas. I give Ole Miss the edge at 5th because they return more of their production from last year than the others. I pick Missouri at 6th based on the strength of their incoming transfers but I think setting will keep them from getting any higher. I expect LSU and Auburn to finish 8th and 9th respectively. I think LSU will struggle replacing Holman and having to restructure their whole offensive strategy due to her loss. Auburn will return basically their whole team and will take a step in the right direction although they will likely continue to struggle with ball control and offensive production. 10th through 13th in the SEC will be a real toss-up. Georgia lost the most production of any SEC team, all of it to graduation. South Carolina was close behind with most of their losses going to transfers. Both MSU's and UT's losses weren't too bad. But they were battling for last place in the SEC all last season so any losses to either will be significant. My guess is that MSU with the new staff will take 10th and Georgia will take 11th. UT and South Carolina will round out the conference at 12th and 13th. But again the unbalanced schedule will likely be the deciding factor here and I admit I haven't dug that deep with these teams yet. Attachments:
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Post by chatchu-off moksri on Aug 18, 2015 13:41:08 GMT -5
What happened to Workman at Kentucky?
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Post by trianglevolleyball on Aug 18, 2015 13:52:29 GMT -5
What happened to Workman at Kentucky? Pregnancy means she'll be foregoing her senior season.
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Post by vbkid111 on Aug 18, 2015 13:59:51 GMT -5
That's two years in a row that Georgia lost much of its production--all of whom were the previous staff's recruits. Rough year last year; looking worse this year?
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Post by chatchu-off moksri on Aug 18, 2015 14:09:09 GMT -5
What happened to Workman at Kentucky? Pregnancy means she'll be foregoing her senior season. Oh I had no idea. Was this announced publicly?
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Post by mclvbdad on Aug 18, 2015 14:14:53 GMT -5
Pregnancy means she'll be foregoing her senior season. Oh I had no idea. Was this announced publicly? I never saw it announced. When she didn't show up on the roster i checked her twitter and saw it there.
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Post by vbshrink on Aug 18, 2015 21:25:36 GMT -5
Good analysis, mclvbdad, but I am not sold on Ole Miss. I don't think they have solved their ball control issues, and their pin hitters are not dynamic enough. Great setter, great middles, but I don't think the have the rest of the cast. And I applaud your bold call of putting MSU above the last three!! Not sure I agree with it, but way to put it out there!
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Post by JB Southpaw on Aug 19, 2015 8:53:42 GMT -5
Built this from the database provided by RickKern. Took the losses to graduation and added the transfer losses as rosters were updated. The percent lost is just a simple average of Kills, Assists, Digs, Aces and Blocks. Team | 2014 Standing | % Lost Graduation | % Lost Graduation and Transfer | 2014 Conf | 2014 All | Florida | 1 | 21.9
| 23.5 | 18-0 | 25-3 | Kentucky | 2 | 23.7 | 37.3 | 15-3 | 26-5 | LSU | 3 | 32.0 | 48.1 | 14-4 | 19-8 | Alabama | 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 13-5 | 25-7 | Texas A&M | 4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 13-5 | 21-8 | Arkansas | 6 | 17.3 | 30.5 | 9-9 | 15-16 | Ole Miss | 7 | 18.9 | 19.5 | 8-10 | 22-10 | Missouri | 8 | 24.8 | 42.4 | 7-11 | 16-17 | South Carolina | 8 | 11.5 | 55.2 | 7-11 | 17-14 | Georgia | 10 | 56.9 | 56.9 | 5-13 | 14-17 | Auburn | 10 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 5-13 | 13-18 | Mississippi State | 12 | 2.6 | 23.5 | 2-16 | 7-26 | Tennessee | 13 | 4.4 | 25.7 | 1-17 | 8-24 |
Florida looks like a good bet to win the SEC again but I don't think they will be as dominate as they were last year. Last year they could play poorly and still win. This year I think they will be challenged more, especially if their serve receive shows any inconsistency. 2nd-4th should be a season long battle between UK, Bama and A&M. The unbalanced schedule of the SEC will raise its ugly head here and I think be a considerable factor. UK has the most difficult schedule playing UF, A&M and Bama twice. Bama has the easiest playing UF and A&M once, both on the road, and UK twice. A&M plays UF and UK twice and Bama once. My prediction is that Bama will finish second, A&M third and UK fourth. Bama and A&M return most of their starters while the unexpected loss of Workman leaves UK with only 3 upperclassmen on their roster. 5th through 7th will be Ole Miss, Missouri and Arkansas. I give Ole Miss the edge at 5th because they return more of their production from last year than the others. I pick Missouri at 6th based on the strength of their incoming transfers but I think setting will keep them from getting any higher. I expect LSU and Auburn to finish 8th and 9th respectively. I think LSU will struggle replacing Holman and having to restructure their whole offensive strategy due to her loss. Auburn will return basically their whole team and will take a step in the right direction although they will likely continue to struggle with ball control and offensive production. 10th through 13th in the SEC will be a real toss-up. Georgia lost the most production of any SEC team, all of it to graduation. South Carolina was close behind with most of their losses going to transfers. Both MSU's and UT's losses weren't too bad. But they were battling for last place in the SEC all last season so any losses to either will be significant. My guess is that MSU with the new staff will take 10th and Georgia will take 11th. UT and South Carolina will round out the conference at 12th and 13th. But again the unbalanced schedule will likely be the deciding factor here and I admit I haven't dug that deep with these teams yet. Thanks for this. However when you add in the criteria together, it skews the info a bit and it makes it hard to really see the story of a team. If you listed each category, then you could see where a team needs to be dependent on new blood. For example: You have Florida losing 21% of output, but in reality, it only lost 59, of it's 1600+ kills, only 130 of it's 1400+ sets and 5 of its 398 blocks. It is losing it's top 3 of top 5 diggers, Serve receivers and servers. From that I see a possibility of more out of system swing attempts due to new passers. One thing of note, UF also loses 3 of it's top five servers. Unroe, Pole and Monserez all had 300+ attempts. Holston & Dagostino are the only returners with more than 300 attempts, so they will look different from the service line too. Could be a good thing, if some of these stronger girls improve their jump serves.
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Post by mclvbdad on Aug 19, 2015 9:59:38 GMT -5
Good analysis, mclvbdad, but I am not sold on Ole Miss. I don't think they have solved their ball control issues, and their pin hitters are not dynamic enough. Great setter, great middles, but I don't think the have the rest of the cast. And I applaud your bold call of putting MSU above the last three!! Not sure I agree with it, but way to put it out there! Ole Miss was one of my hardest picks. I don't see much separation between the 5th thru 7th group. I gave Ole Miss the edge based on their setter and middles. Picking Georgia 11th was risker to me than putting MSU 10th. Georgia lost so much to graduation they could just as easily end up last in the SEC.
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