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Post by mclvbdad on Aug 19, 2015 10:43:57 GMT -5
Built this from the database provided by RickKern. Took the losses to graduation and added the transfer losses as rosters were updated. The percent lost is just a simple average of Kills, Assists, Digs, Aces and Blocks. Team | 2014 Standing | % Lost Graduation | % Lost Graduation and Transfer | 2014 Conf | 2014 All | Florida | 1 | 21.9
| 23.5 | 18-0 | 25-3 | Kentucky | 2 | 23.7 | 37.3 | 15-3 | 26-5 | LSU | 3 | 32.0 | 48.1 | 14-4 | 19-8 | Alabama | 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 13-5 | 25-7 | Texas A&M | 4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 13-5 | 21-8 | Arkansas | 6 | 17.3 | 30.5 | 9-9 | 15-16 | Ole Miss | 7 | 18.9 | 19.5 | 8-10 | 22-10 | Missouri | 8 | 24.8 | 42.4 | 7-11 | 16-17 | South Carolina | 8 | 11.5 | 55.2 | 7-11 | 17-14 | Georgia | 10 | 56.9 | 56.9 | 5-13 | 14-17 | Auburn | 10 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 5-13 | 13-18 | Mississippi State | 12 | 2.6 | 23.5 | 2-16 | 7-26 | Tennessee | 13 | 4.4 | 25.7 | 1-17 | 8-24 |
Florida looks like a good bet to win the SEC again but I don't think they will be as dominate as they were last year. Last year they could play poorly and still win. This year I think they will be challenged more, especially if their serve receive shows any inconsistency. 2nd-4th should be a season long battle between UK, Bama and A&M. The unbalanced schedule of the SEC will raise its ugly head here and I think be a considerable factor. UK has the most difficult schedule playing UF, A&M and Bama twice. Bama has the easiest playing UF and A&M once, both on the road, and UK twice. A&M plays UF and UK twice and Bama once. My prediction is that Bama will finish second, A&M third and UK fourth. Bama and A&M return most of their starters while the unexpected loss of Workman leaves UK with only 3 upperclassmen on their roster. 5th through 7th will be Ole Miss, Missouri and Arkansas. I give Ole Miss the edge at 5th because they return more of their production from last year than the others. I pick Missouri at 6th based on the strength of their incoming transfers but I think setting will keep them from getting any higher. I expect LSU and Auburn to finish 8th and 9th respectively. I think LSU will struggle replacing Holman and having to restructure their whole offensive strategy due to her loss. Auburn will return basically their whole team and will take a step in the right direction although they will likely continue to struggle with ball control and offensive production. 10th through 13th in the SEC will be a real toss-up. Georgia lost the most production of any SEC team, all of it to graduation. South Carolina was close behind with most of their losses going to transfers. Both MSU's and UT's losses weren't too bad. But they were battling for last place in the SEC all last season so any losses to either will be significant. My guess is that MSU with the new staff will take 10th and Georgia will take 11th. UT and South Carolina will round out the conference at 12th and 13th. But again the unbalanced schedule will likely be the deciding factor here and I admit I haven't dug that deep with these teams yet. Thanks for this. However when you add in the criteria together, it skews the info a bit and it makes it hard to really see the story of a team. If you listed each category, then you could see where a team needs to be dependent on new blood. For example: You have Florida losing 21% of output, but in reality, it only lost 59, of it's 1600+ kills, only 130 of it's 1400+ sets and 5 of its 398 blocks. It is losing it's top 3 of top 5 diggers, Serve receivers and servers. From that I see a possibility of more out of system swing attempts due to new passers. One thing of note, UF also loses 3 of it's top five servers. Unroe, Pole and Monserez all had 300+ attempts. Holston & Dagostino are the only returners with more than 300 attempts, so they will look different from the service line too. Could be a good thing, if some of these stronger girls improve their jump serves. Here are the individual categories broken out. Agree about UF. That is why they are still picked first in the conference. But I do think the losses in the back row will make them vulnerable to pick up a loss or 2 in conference this season.
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Post by JB Southpaw on Aug 19, 2015 11:30:50 GMT -5
Thanks for this. However when you add in the criteria together, it skews the info a bit and it makes it hard to really see the story of a team. If you listed each category, then you could see where a team needs to be dependent on new blood. For example: You have Florida losing 21% of output, but in reality, it only lost 59, of it's 1600+ kills, only 130 of it's 1400+ sets and 5 of its 398 blocks. It is losing it's top 3 of top 5 diggers, Serve receivers and servers. From that I see a possibility of more out of system swing attempts due to new passers. One thing of note, UF also loses 3 of it's top five servers. Unroe, Pole and Monserez all had 300+ attempts. Holston & Dagostino are the only returners with more than 300 attempts, so they will look different from the service line too. Could be a good thing, if some of these stronger girls improve their jump serves. Here are the individual categories broken out. Agree about UF. That is why they are still picked first in the conference. But I do think the losses in the back row will make them vulnerable to pick up a loss or 2 in conference this season. View AttachmentThanks. It will be interesting to see what happens, UF was mainly reliant on the 3 departed DSs. I'm thinking you are going to see more backrow from the OH positions who weren't overly involved in Serve receive, especially Synder. I think UF will be able to just out-point most teams with average ball control, but this is def. were UF will show if they are elite or not.
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Post by onfiya on Aug 19, 2015 11:33:08 GMT -5
That could be a big positive for Georgia and South Carolina...
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Post by c4ndlelight on Aug 19, 2015 11:43:22 GMT -5
When you're at the very bottom of the conference, it's more about what you're bringing in than what is or isn't coming back. So I'd think Georgia will outperform SCAR, MSU and UT by quite a bit despite the graduation.
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Post by vbshrink on Aug 19, 2015 19:48:07 GMT -5
Good analysis, mclvbdad, but I am not sold on Ole Miss. I don't think they have solved their ball control issues, and their pin hitters are not dynamic enough. Great setter, great middles, but I don't think the have the rest of the cast. And I applaud your bold call of putting MSU above the last three!! Not sure I agree with it, but way to put it out there! Ole Miss was one of my hardest picks. I don't see much separation between the 5th thru 7th group. I gave Ole Miss the edge based on their setter and middles. Picking Georgia 11th was risker to me than putting MSU 10th. Georgia lost so much to graduation they could just as easily end up last in the SEC. Personally, I think MSU and SC will be fighting it out for the cellar. UGA still has two good middles, a decent RS who hits a very heavy ball, and a S and an OH each with one year of experience. SC lost their best OH, their only setters, and have a pretty bare cupboard. And I hate to be mean, but MSU is MSU - they just don't have a lot there, and I'm not sure what McFatrich can do in one preseason. But ... that's why they suit up and play the matches!
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Post by JB Southpaw on Aug 20, 2015 9:31:46 GMT -5
about half way through this article, they talk a bit about the back row play & O'Rourke. www.gatorsports.com/article/20150820/articles/150829991“Love what we’re doing (with) some of the offensive things,” Wise said. “Right now, we’re figuring out, how to replace the three mainstays of the back row.” A key to the back row could be senior Nikki O’Rourke, who is expected to fill the important libero position on the back line. “There have been some players who have been fortunate to come in and play right away, but there’s a whole slew of stories of players that waited their turn, worked really hard and then when their turn came, they took full advantage of it,” Wise said. “That’s where Nikki O’Rourke is right now. She played behind three really good seniors. This is her turn. And just watching the confidence that she’s playing with, the plays that she’s making, she’s making plays right now that we didn’t have anybody who could make defensively the past couple of years.”
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Post by blindpirate on Aug 20, 2015 10:38:57 GMT -5
It will be very interesting to see how much FL will struggle with the ball control because that is for sure the major issue. MW can say all she wants about O'Rourke, I would to if I was in her shoes to keep pumping the kid up as much as possible but at the end of the day she hasn't played enough at the position to know how good she will be. Passing Lineups R1: O'Rourke, Snyder/DS1(New), Holston R2: O'Rourke, DS2(New), Holston add Snyder? R3: O'Rourke, DS2(New), Holston add Snyder? R4: O'Rourke, DS2(New), Holston add Snyder? R5: O'Rourke, Snyder/DS1(New), Holston R6: O'Rourke, Snyder/DS1(New), Holston
Holston is a primary passer now and held her own last year but for sure will be a target if for nothing else to wear her out. Snyder is no doubt the serving target for every team that they play! Struggle bus for sure and hasn't had to pass at this level for 6 rotations. Whoever the O1 will be is going to be DS'd out in the backrow so that will add a new serving target to the mix of whomever they decide.
With all of this being said, the Florida season will rely purely on the first contact. Hard to get the beast in the middle the rock if she only gets it on perfect passes and free balls because that will be 40% of the time. Still like Florida to win 25 games this season.
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Post by mclvbdad on Aug 21, 2015 9:06:37 GMT -5
Read the article and looked thru the pics for LSU's Purple-Gold Scrimmage. Cati Leak was not mentioned nor was she in any pictures as far as I could tell. Any news on what up with her? LSU in in real trouble if Leak is not ready go come start of season.
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Post by vbshrink on Aug 21, 2015 23:27:21 GMT -5
That would be a big hit on their squad. Looked at her twitter and she has a couple bible tweets about adversity, so maybe she's got a knock. If so, hope it's minor and that she'll be okay soon.
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Post by VBLVFL on Aug 23, 2015 8:49:58 GMT -5
Did anyone happen to see the UT scrimmage? Just curious how they looked with the three new transfers.
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Post by cw on Aug 25, 2015 9:46:51 GMT -5
SEC Matches 8/28-9/1 - Pre-conference Wk #1
ALABAMA {@ LBSU and Pepperdine} Friday 8/28 vs Long Beach State Saturday 8/29 vs Cal State Fullerton vs Pepperdine ARKANSAS {@ Home} Friday 8/28 vs McNeese State Saturday 8/29 vs Army vs Kansas
AUBURN {@ Home} Friday 8/28 vs Stephen F Austin Saturday 8/29 vs Jacksonville vs Samford Tuesday 9/1 vs Florida A&M
FLORIDA {@ James Madison & American} Saturday 8/29 vs James Madison Sunday 8/30 vs American
GEORGIA {@ Home} Friday 8/28 vs Wofford Saturday 8/29 vs High Point vs Memphis
KENTUCKY {@ Home} Friday 8/28 vs Michigan State Saturday 8/29 vs IUPUI vs Little Rock Tuesday 9/1 vs Ohio
LSU {@ Texas} Friday 8/28 vs UC Irvine Saturday 8/29 vs Rice vs Texas
MISSISSIPPI STATE {@ Home} Friday 8/28 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs ULM Saturday 8/29 vs Jackson State vs Southern Utah
MISSOURI {@ Home} Friday 8/28 vs North Dakota State Saturday 8/29 vs Winthrop vs North Texas
OLE MISS {@ Home} Friday 8/28 vs Oral Roberts Saturday 8/29 vs Tennessee St vs Northwestern State Tuesday 9/1 vs McNeese St vs Tennessee-Martin
SOUTH CAROLINA {@ Home} Friday 8/28 vs Southeastern Louisiana Saturday 8/29 vs North Carolina Central vs North Carolina State
TENNESSEE {@ Towson} Friday 8/28 vs Delaware State vs Towson Saturday 8/29 vs Coppin State vs St Francis (PA)
TEXAS A&M {@ Stanford} Friday 8/28 vs Stanford Saturday 8/29 vs Minnesota
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Post by blindpirate on Aug 25, 2015 12:22:16 GMT -5
If I were setting the lines for vegas for wins this season... Not in any order Florida 25.5 Kentucky 22.5 Texas A&M 23.5 Alabama 24.5 LSU 14.5 Missouri 22.5 South Carolina 13.5 Auburn 14.5 Georgia 12.5 Tennessee 13.5 Ole Miss 20.5 Mississippi State 11.5
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Post by xbronc on Aug 26, 2015 17:45:51 GMT -5
How bad will Georgia be this year? They have good talent, but not used correctly? Any thoughts?
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Post by vbshrink on Aug 26, 2015 19:46:52 GMT -5
If I were setting the lines for vegas for wins this season... Not in any order Florida 25.5 Kentucky 22.5 Texas A&M 23.5 Alabama 24.5 LSU 14.5 Missouri 22.5 South Carolina 13.5 Auburn 14.5 Georgia 12.5 Tennessee 13.5 Ole Miss 20.5 Mississippi State 11.5 So, you're saying Arkansas has zero chance at a win? Or that they will forfeit their season? ;-)
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Post by vbshrink on Aug 26, 2015 19:49:12 GMT -5
How bad will Georgia be this year? They have good talent, but not used correctly? Any thoughts? They have some talent, but not enough and not distributed well enough, imo. Their middles are athletic and effective, and they have a strong-hitting OPP, but their ball control and OH play is not likely to be good enough, and their only experienced setter will be a soph and only played back row last year. Lots of challenges facing the Dawgs.
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