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Post by akbar on Oct 25, 2015 16:07:56 GMT -5
Here is the current Pablo projected standings: 1. Minnesota (18-2) .883 2. Nebraska (16-4) .810 3. Penn State (16-4) .786 4. Ohio State (15-5) .771 5. Wisconsin (13-7) .658 6. Purdue (13-7) .642 7. Michigan State (11-9) .526 8. Illinois (10-10) .490 9. Northwestern (9-11) .433 10. Michigan (8-12) .421 11. Indiana (5-15) .235 12. Iowa (4-16) .214 13. Maryland (1-19) .075 14. Rutgers (1-19) .056 So, at the turn. Where does everyone have their projections? Overall Conference W-L % W-L % Minnesota 17-3 .850 9-1 .900 Penn State 19-2 .905 8-2 .800 Ohio State 19-3 .864 8-2 .800 Purdue 17-4 .810 8-2 .800 Nebraska 16-4 .800 7-3 .700 Wisconsin 14-6 .700 6-4 .600 Michigan State 14-7 .667 6-4 .600 Michigan 15-6 .714 5-5 .500 Illinois 13-8 .619 4-6 .400 Northwestern 12-9 .571 4-6 .400 Indiana 13-9 .591 3-7 .300 Maryland 11-13 .458 1-9 .100 Rutgers 4-18 .182 1-9 .100 Iowa 10-13 .435 0-10 .000
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Post by JT on Oct 25, 2015 16:30:53 GMT -5
Overall record. There's four weeks of pre-conference tourneys giving 10-14 more matches.
The conference record (and %-wins) is the last pair of stats.
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Post by Hawk Attack on Oct 25, 2015 16:34:01 GMT -5
Overall record. There's four weeks of pre-conference tourneys giving 10-14 more matches. The conference record (and %-wins) is the last pair of stats. Got it! I thought the first was where they projected them to end the B1G followed by where they're at in the B1G so far. I got thrown off with a couple teams being precisely at 20 matches so far.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2015 16:39:49 GMT -5
I don't see how NW gets to 9-11. That's a 5-5 second half. I don't even see how they get the 4-6 they need to qualify for the tournament. That loss to Indiana was HUGE.
10/30/2015 Home **Michigan 21 10/31/2015 Home **Michigan State 29 November 11/4/2015 Home **Illinois 19 11/7/2015 Away **Illinois 19 11/11/2015 Home **Minnesota 7 11/15/2015 Home **Purdue 23 11/18/2015 Away **Michigan State 29 11/21/2015 Away **Iowa 54 11/25/2015 Away **Penn State 6 11/28/2015 Home **Maryland 114
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 25, 2015 16:40:40 GMT -5
So, at the turn. Where does everyone have their projections? Overall Conference W-L % W-L % Minnesota 17-3 .850 9-1 .900 Penn State 19-2 .905 8-2 .800 Ohio State 19-3 .864 8-2 .800 Purdue 17-4 .810 8-2 .800 Nebraska 16-4 .800 7-3 .700 Wisconsin 14-6 .700 6-4 .600 Michigan State 14-7 .667 6-4 .600 Michigan 15-6 .714 5-5 .500 Illinois 13-8 .619 4-6 .400 Northwestern 12-9 .571 4-6 .400 Indiana 13-9 .591 3-7 .300 Maryland 11-13 .458 1-9 .100 Rutgers 4-18 .182 1-9 .100 Iowa 10-13 .435 0-10 .000 Haha wait... I'm definitely interested in your rankings but perhaps not with the W/L counts being where they're currently at, with the majority of teams somehow finding a way to play more than 20 matches? You're right. Akbars projected records don't add up. And where does Rutgers find 4 wins ?
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Post by akbar on Oct 25, 2015 16:46:58 GMT -5
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 25, 2015 17:50:34 GMT -5
Oh I see...I thought those were your projections, as per the post you were quoting...Sorry about that.
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Post by Hawk Attack on Oct 25, 2015 17:59:59 GMT -5
Go ahead and post YOUR projections. I'm much more interested in seeing that
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Post by akbar on Oct 25, 2015 18:12:08 GMT -5
Go ahead and post YOUR projections. I'm much more interested in seeing that I will. I need to think it through first and look at matchups.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 25, 2015 20:33:34 GMT -5
I don't see how NW gets to 9-11. That's a 5-5 second half. I don't even see how they get the 4-6 they need to qualify for the tournament. That loss to Indiana was HUGE. 10/30/2015 Home **Michigan 21 10/31/2015 Home **Michigan State 29 November 11/4/2015 Home **Illinois 19 11/7/2015 Away **Illinois 19 11/11/2015 Home **Minnesota 7 11/15/2015 Home **Purdue 23 11/18/2015 Away **Michigan State 29 11/21/2015 Away **Iowa 54 11/25/2015 Away **Penn State 6 11/28/2015 Home **Maryland 114 Based on last weeks Pablo ratings - NW is favored against Michigan (52%), Michigan State (62%), Purdue (57%), Iowa (62%), and Maryland (96%). They are narrow underdogs against @michigan State (41%) and Illinois (47%). However, the loss to Indiana probably will result in lower win probabilities when this week's Pablo comes out.
I kind of think they have 6 very competitive matchups coming up with 1 easy win against Maryland. Would need to win 1/2 of those close ones to be eligible - they have a clear path, but I wouldn't count on it happening.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2015 21:10:36 GMT -5
This week's Pablo ratings should smack NW. But I sure wouldn't pick them in any of those matches. Except for Maryland. I think Iowa beats them in Iowa City. But even if they don't, I don't know where the two other wins come from. They REALLY need to beat one of the Michigans this weekend.
It's not that NW is bad -- they aren't. They beat the Lions for cripesakes. It's just a really, really tough conference.
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Post by rampageripster on Oct 26, 2015 10:08:09 GMT -5
Tier 1: Minnesota [1]: I think the front-runner in the conference right now and my favorite to win it... Penn St [1]: Surviving without Courtney... we'll see about this week
Tier 2: Nebraska [1]: Go winless at home over a weekend and you'll drop. On a second look, they have 1 big win in conference, on the road against PSU. They've lost to the rest of the top tiers. Ohio St [1]: That MSU match was UGLY... Michigan was;t much better, but it was a W. MSU was the first B1G team to hit > .200. If the defense is off, they lose. Wisconsin [2]: Welcome back cheese weasels.
Tier 3: Purdue [2]: They drop mostly cause they haven't proven themselves yet.
Tier 4: Illinois [3[: It has been a sow descent to the bottom for the Illini Michigan [4]: Played REALLY well this weekend, unfortunate to not get a W out of it Michigan St [4]: Awesome against the Buckeyes, miserably bad against the Lions.
Tier 5; Northwestern [4]: Loss to Purdue is expected, loss to Indiana is not good. Iowa [5]: Really have nothing new. Just a mediocre team. Indiana [6]: I think they've been playing good volleyball as of late. Took a set from tOSU and now beat NU.
Tier 6: Maryland [6]: Just when I thought I was being too mean... Rutgers [7]: Your reward for your first ever win in conference is not having to be alone at the bottom.
I hate Penn State more than the NRA hates gun control
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Post by akbar on Oct 26, 2015 11:13:21 GMT -5
Here goes.
2nd round
PSU 9-1 ends 17-3 Minn 7-3 ends 16-4 Neb 9-1 ends 16-4 OSU 7-3 ends 15-5 Wis 9-1 ends 15-5 MSU 8-2 ends 13-7 Ill 8-2 ends 12-8 PUR 4-6 ends 12-8 Mich 2-8 ends 7-13 brutal schedule 2nd 1/2 NW 2-8 ends 6-14 IND 2-8 ends 5-15 MAR 1-9 ends 2-18 Iowa 2-8 ends 2-18 RU 0-10 ends 1-19
PSU wins B1G.
8 teams make it in
Wisc and MSU demonstrate great recoveries from a tough start.
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Post by BuckysHeat on Oct 28, 2015 12:38:12 GMT -5
I can see a case where Minnesota goes 18-2 and takes it with 4 teams tied at 16-4 for second place. For that to happen - and these are all real possibilities:
PSU loses one of the matches vs OSU this weekend and loses to Minny in Minn OSU splits with PSU and loses to Wis in Madison but beats Minnesota Nebraska gets their act back together and wins the next 9 but lose to PSU in Happy Valley Wisconsin Wins out - they would need to beat Illinois at Champaign and beat OSU at home
Purdue would go 5-5 the rest of the way to finish at 13-7, all others already have more than 4 losses
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Post by spikerthemovie on Oct 28, 2015 12:41:39 GMT -5
I can see a case where Minnesota goes 18-2 and takes it with 4 teams tied at 16-4 for second place. For that to happen - and these are all real possibilities: PSU loses one of the matches vs OSU this weekend and loses to Minny in Minn OSU splits with PSU and loses to Wis in Madison but beats Minnesota Nebraska gets their act back together and wins the next 9 but lose to PSU in Happy Valley Wisconsin Wins out - they would need to beat Illinois at Champaign and beat OSU at home Purdue would go 5-5 the rest of the way to finish at 13-7, all others already have more than 4 losses Nebraska already beat PSU at Happy Valley. The rematch is in Lincoln.
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