With one match left in the Big Ten conference season:
Plus 4: Minnesota. The Gophers were picked to finish fifth in the preseason conference poll. They’ll end up either first or tied for first.
Plus 2: Purdue and Ohio State. Purdue was picked seventh, Ohio State eighth. They’ll finish fifth and sixth.
Plus 2 or Plus 1: Indiana. Picked to finish twelfth, the Hoosiers will be either tenth or eleventh.
Plus 2, Plus 1 or Plus 0: Wisconsin. Picked to finish fourth, the Badgers can come out anywhere from a tie for second to fourth, depending on the outcome of Saturday’s matches.
Plus 1: Maryland. Picked to finish thirteenth, the Terps have locked up twelfth place.
Plus 1 or Plus 0: Nebraska. Picked to finish second, Nebraska will either tie for first, finish second outright, or tie for second.
Plus 0: Michigan, Rutgers. Michigan was picked to come in ninth, that’s exactly where they’ll end up. Rutgers was picked to finish last, they’ll finish last. I know, technically, they could tie Iowa, but they’re not beating Ohio State, sorry.
Plus 0 to Minus 1: Northwestern. Picked to finish tenth, they’ll either be tenth or eleventh.
Minus 1 to Minus 2: Michigan State. Picked to finish sixth, Sparty will end up seventh or eighth.
Minus 1 to Minus 3: Penn State. Picked to win the league, Penn State’s best hope is a tie for second, but could finish as low as fourth, depending on Saturday’s outcomes.
Minus 2: Iowa. Picked to come in eleventh, they’ll be thirteenth.
Minus 3 to Minus 4: Illinois. Illinois was picked third. Best they can do is sixth at this point.
I’m still intrigued by the impact of the unbalanced schedule. I think most people would agree that Nebraska and Wisconsin are playing the best of any of the teams in the B1G right now, but if you look at the wins and losses, Minnesota and Penn State have (in my opinion) more impressive resumes. Minnesota is the only team in the B1G to have beaten each of the other five teams in the top six in the league. Penn State can do the same if they can figure out a way to top the Huskers in Lincoln. Nebraska has beaten only Penn State and Purdue, with losses at Ohio State and to Minnesota and Wisconsin at home in their only matchups of the season. No doubt Nebraska would love to have a chance to avenge those losses -- maybe they will in the tournament. Wisconsin lost twice to Minnesota and their only match with Penn State this year, but does have the victory at Nebraska.
Wins vs. Top 6 Losses Remaining
Minnesota 17-2 @osu, @wi, WI, @ne, PUR, PSU, OSU @psu, @pur @in
Nebraska 16-3 @psu, @pur @osu, MN, WI PSU
Penn State 15-4 MN, WI, @osu, OSU, PUR NE, @nw,
mn, MI @ne
Wisconsin 15-4 @ne, PUR, OSU @psu, @osu, MN,
mn @pur
Purdue 13-6 MN @psu, @osu,
mn, @wi, NE, MSU WI
Ohio State 11-8 NE,WI, PUR MN, PSU, PSU, MSU, MD, MI, @wi,
mn RUT
Wins vs. Top 6 Losses to Lower in Standings Remaining
Illinois 10-9
@mi
Michigan State 10-9 @pur, OSU @in, NW IA
Michigan 8-11 @psu, @osu @in ILL
Indiana 6-13 IA MN
Northwestern 6-13 PSU MD
Maryland 4-15 OSU @rut @nw
Iowa 2-17
MSU Rutgers 1-18 @osu
Parting thought: Can someone please explain to me how eleven coaches in the last AVCA poll had Illinois ranked above Ohio State? Christy Johnson-Lynch also has Illinois above Purdue. Granted, the Illini have not lost to anyone behind them in the standings, but they also have zero wins against the teams ahead of them. Ohio State has beaten Nebraska, Wisconsin and Purdue, and Purdue beat Minnesota.
Special shout out to Robert Machan from Sacred Heart, who on this week’s AVCA poll ranked Arizona 11, Arizona State 13, Illinois 16, Purdue 17 and Wisconsin 19.