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Post by soljah808 on Dec 2, 2015 0:37:37 GMT -5
Boo! What you calculated .4125 are the chances of the combination of .75 and .55 occurring, not Hawaii's odds. I am not a probability expert, but this is how I'd do it: (.75+.55)/2. Answer= 65%. Politely suggest you do some basic homework before suggesting an inane equation that makes you feel better about Hawaii in two matches at College Station. The probability ( not "odds" or "chances") of two independent events BOTH occurring is the product ( that means you multiply one probability times the other). It is NOT the average as you conjured up without taking the time to inform yourself. Check any statistics text. Perhaps you fit the definition of a FANatic. A competent betting Hawaiian would not buy his ticket to Des Moins and Omaha from College Station. A FANatic would even though the last total success was 1987. So I get it....probability dictates that Hawaii won't make it out of College Station. Thank god you are not on Hawaii's coaching staff because if the team listened to you or its probable chances of advancing....they'd might as well keep their collective a$$es at home and spare them the trouble. Hallelujah for that.
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Post by Wolfgang on Dec 2, 2015 1:01:52 GMT -5
We can look ahead to TAMU or even Penn State. We're not the players themselves so we have the luxury of looking ahead as far into the future as we like. The one-match-at-a-time mentality is only for the players, not the fans.
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Post by wonderwarthog79 on Dec 2, 2015 1:04:11 GMT -5
It's fitting that this thread has almost as many posts as the entire Austin regional thread.
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Post by soljah808 on Dec 2, 2015 1:09:28 GMT -5
Look ahead to next year and 2017 and 2018 too then. I dont know what im talking about, ok thats fine. So if hawaii loses i dont want all you whiners to start creating an alibi as to why they lost Win or lose....us Hawaii FANS will still be here! If Hawaii loses....you won't hear an alibi from me at least. And if they win....will you finally get lost?
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Post by pineapple on Dec 2, 2015 1:10:15 GMT -5
Boo! What you calculated .4125 are the chances of the combination of .75 and .55 occurring, not Hawaii's odds. I am not a probability expert, but this is how I'd do it: (.75+.55)/2. Answer= 65%. Politely suggest you do some basic homework before suggesting an inane equation that makes you feel better about Hawaii in two matches at College Station. The probability ( not "odds" or "chances") of two independent events BOTH occurring is the product ( that means you multiply one probability times the other). It is NOT the average as you conjured up without taking the time to inform yourself. Check any statistics text. Perhaps you fit the definition of a FANatic. A competent betting Hawaiian would not buy his ticket to Des Moins and Omaha from College Station. A FANatic would even though the last total success was 1987. The poster to whom I was responding said the product .41 is the probability of Hawaii's advancing to the semi-regional. It is not; it is the probability of the two events occurring, as you said. As for the "conjuring up" part, didn't I qualify ( or disqualify) myself with "I am not a probability expert"? Besides, I didn't say it was the way to do it. I said it was the way I'd do it. May not be right but I was being truthful. I can tell you things that you wouldn't know anything about without condescending, like how to pick pineapples.
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Post by Labrat33 on Dec 2, 2015 2:48:42 GMT -5
Boo! What you calculated .4125 are the chances of the combination of .75 and .55 occurring, not Hawaii's odds. I am not a probability expert, but this is how I'd do it: (.75+.55)/2. Answer= 65%. Politely suggest you do some basic homework before suggesting an inane equation that makes you feel better about Hawaii in two matches at College Station. The probability ( not "odds" or "chances") of two independent events BOTH occurring is the product ( that means you multiply one probability times the other). It is NOT the average as you conjured up without taking the time to inform yourself. Check any statistics text. Perhaps you fit the definition of a FANatic. A competent betting Hawaiian would not buy his ticket to Des Moins and Omaha from College Station. A FANatic would even though the last total success was 1987. Here is what wahinefan744 came up with -- this seems to be closer to the mark: Unfortunately that's some funy math and Hawaii does not have a 65% chance of advancing beyond the weekend. garnet04 was closer with their analysis but failed to take into account the odds of Hawaii beating A&M Corpus Cristi should they beat A&M. Here's how the actual numbers work out based on the 11/30 Pablo: Probability of UH defeating TCU ~ 0.73 Probability of A&M defeating A&M CC ~ 0.8 Probability of UH defeating A&M ~ 0.59 Probability of UH defeating A&M CC ~ 0.86 So the probability of UH advancing beyond this weekend are as follows (Assuming I applied the Pablo probabilities correctly): 0.73 [0.2x0.86 +0.8x0.59] = 0.47 By the same logic, A&M has a probability of 0.385 of advancing while the other two schools have lower chances. Read more: volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/61121/hawaiis-draw?page=7#ixzz3t98P5xFC
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 2, 2015 3:11:19 GMT -5
They got the toughest draw of all the top teams this year. Gotta feel for Hawaii. On the contrary, Wahine fans aren't complaining. I for one feel like they got a good draw this time. Pablo says that even with the HCA for TAMU, Hawaii is the team favored to come out of that sub-region.
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 2, 2015 3:18:57 GMT -5
Get lost for what. This is a thread to post opinions, are you all really that sensitive? You misunderstand. They thought you were looking for something to watch on TV, and were suggesting that you get some DVDs of Lost.
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Post by X-Play on Dec 2, 2015 3:53:39 GMT -5
pepper2 and others maintain that "Hawaii has a very good chance to win against the teams in their regional bracket". Let us peek at the probabilities: Hawaii over TCU - 75% pretty good, but a 25% chance of loosing Hawaii over TAMU -55% not "very good" But to get to Penn State which seems a given to many, they have to win twice! The probability of that is .75 x .55 or .41 So it is more probable they do NOT get out of College Station (59%) to even meet PSU (who are also not assured of winning 2) So only a 41% probability of a favorable outcome for Hawaii in College Station is not "very good" IMO. Eh, it's STILL better than the probabilities of any other team getting out of College Station. So that's very good, especially considering the usual alternatives of getting sent to the West Coast again and facing an even lower probability of getting out of a subregional. It's ALL relative. Your point seems to be that the probability is not "very good" and you seem hung up on the fact that some posters are using the adverb "very" instead of just saying good or, better yet, throwing in the towel ahead of time because the supposed probabilities are sooo paltry. I'm sorry but it's coming across as petty. Why don't you just focus on the probabilities for TCU and TAMU getting out of the subregional and then you might understand the cautious optimism and excitement. I can assure you the Hawai'i team is not looking past or disrespecting any team in that regional. Here's hoping for the some great matches!
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Post by Courtside5 on Dec 2, 2015 8:38:17 GMT -5
On the contrary, Wahine fans aren't complaining. I for one feel like they got a good draw this time. Pablo says that even with the HCA for TAMU, Hawaii is the team favored to come out of that sub-region. Sounds good to me. I hope Pablo is right.
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Post by wahinefan744 on Dec 2, 2015 13:57:33 GMT -5
Politely suggest you do some basic homework before suggesting an inane equation that makes you feel better about Hawaii in two matches at College Station. The probability ( not "odds" or "chances") of two independent events BOTH occurring is the product ( that means you multiply one probability times the other). It is NOT the average as you conjured up without taking the time to inform yourself. Check any statistics text. Perhaps you fit the definition of a FANatic. A competent betting Hawaiian would not buy his ticket to Des Moins and Omaha from College Station. A FANatic would even though the last total success was 1987. So I get it....probability dictates that Hawaii won't make it out of College Station. Not at all. Hawaii has nearly a 50% chance of getting out of the subregional which is a pretty damn good chance and significantly higher chance than the other three to come out of College Station.
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Post by Cubicle No More ... on Dec 2, 2015 14:38:32 GMT -5
Get lost for what. This is a thread to post opinions, are you all really that sensitive? You misunderstand. They thought you were looking for something to watch on TV, and were suggesting that you get some DVDs of Lost. i love lost! luke warm on the series finale tho ...
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Post by Cubicle No More ... on Dec 2, 2015 14:43:41 GMT -5
all this probability talk is making my head spin ... it's too early in the morning ... **reaches for my cup of coffee** sounds like no one is making it out of the texas a&m subregional? ... penn st is gonna love that ... their path to the FF just got a little easier ...
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Post by Wolfgang on Dec 2, 2015 14:57:37 GMT -5
Just view TCU is another WAC team. I'm looking ahead to TAMU. Yeah, that's right. I said it.
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Post by vballin008 on Dec 2, 2015 15:02:02 GMT -5
When it comes to tourney time I'm sure Shoji will do anything to win. He will probably be switching setters more freely
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