RPI Futures Week 5 (9/25/16)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending RPI projection based on the win probabilities per Pablo rating for all remaining scheduled matches.

Projected wins and losses are rounded. 

Projected RPI Rank (Previous week projection) Team (Projected Wins - Losses) - SOS Rank.

1. (1) Nebraska (28-1) - 13

2. (2) Wisconsin (24-5) - 2

3. (3) Texas (21-5) - 1

4. (4) Minnesota (23-6) - 3

5. (7) Florida (27-2) - 39

6. (6) Stanford (21-7) - 7

7. (5) Purdue (22-9) - 4

8. (9) BYU (27-3) - 43

9. (8) Michigan (23-9) - 6

10. (15) Michigan State (24-8) - 8

11. (11) San Diego (25-4) - 36

12. (10) Kansas State (21-8) - 9

13. (16) Oregon (21-8) - 11

14. (20) Washington State (25-7) - 32

15. (19) TCU (17-9) - 5

16. (12) UCLA (23-7) - 24

17. (14) North Carolina (25-5) - 54

18. (13) Washington (22-8) - 28

19. (17) Kentucky (22-7) - 25

20. (18) Western Kentucky (25-4) - 79

21. (22) UNLV (25-5) - 47

22. (23) Utah (20-11) - 14

23. (27) Creighton (22-8) - 35

24. (26) Missouri (22-8) - 37

25. (38) Pittsburgh (26-6) - 84

26. (31) Wichita State (23-6) - 63

27. (24) Kansas (21-7) - 64

28. (21) Marquette (24-6) - 82

29. (36) Florida State (23-6) - 85

30. (41) Hawaii (22-5) - 91

31. (30) Dayton (27-3) - 157

32. (28) Coastal Carolina (23-5) - 124

33. (25) Colorado (18-12) - 26

34. (34) Tulsa (24-8) - 57

35. (49) Baylor (20-12) - 31

36. (44) Illinois (19-12) - 17

37. (51) Notre Dame (25-7) - 99

38. (42) Georgia Tech (23-9) - 73

39. (40) Boise State (22-9) - 55

40. (33) Penn State (18-13) - 19

41. (37) Texas A&M (18-11) - 27

42. (39) Ohio State (19-13) - 16

43. (35) Arizona (17-15) - 12

44. (29) USC (17-14) - 15

45. (45) SMU (21-11) - 44

46. (46) Texas-San Antonio (21-5) - 143

47. (58) Miami-OH (22-6) - 140

48. (32) Iowa State (15-13) - 10

49. (43) Cal Poly (19-8) - 83

50. (56) Colorado State (19-10) - 56

51. (55) Loyola Marymount (20-10) - 61

52. (62) Alabama (20-11) - 52

53. (73) Cincinnati (18-13) - 33

54. (50) Florida Gulf Coast (26-4) - 191

55. (48) Cleveland State (21-7) - 117

56. (66) UConn (22-9) - 93

57. (53) Northern Iowa (21-10) - 109

58. (69) UCF (22-11) - 89

59. (52) Lipscomb (19-8) - 110

60. (74) Arkansas State (23-7) - 141

61. (47) UNCW (21-7) - 132

62. (77) Wyoming (18-13) - 48

63. (61) Towson (25-6) - 159

64. (59) Indiana (17-16) - 22

65. (70) Rice (18-11) - 69

66. (65) Missouri State (21-11) - 104

67. (91) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (20-8) - 128

68. (80) Southern Illinois (21-11) - 87

69. (57) Ole Miss (19-12) - 81

70. (68) Tennessee (19-12) - 72

71. (84) San Diego State (18-14) - 51

72. (92) Northern Illinois (22-6) - 187

73. (112) Pacific (16-14) - 41

74. (54) Iowa (18-14) - 49

75. (63) Villanova (18-13) - 60

76. (67) Hofstra (18-11) - 86

77. (72) NC State (19-13) - 74

78. (60) USF (20-12) - 106

79. (64) Santa Clara (19-11) - 108

80. (104) Illinois State (20-10) - 136

81. (71) Duke (19-11) - 103

82. (76) Xavier (17-14) - 67

83. (86) UCSB (18-11) - 114

84. (103) Tulane (18-14) - 71

85. (85) South Dakota (26-4) - 273

86. (97) Wisconsin-Green Bay (20-8) - 162

87. (82) DePaul (15-15) - 46

88. (107) James Madison (16-13) - 76

89. (94) Northeastern (20-10) - 138

90. (110) Long Beach State (18-13) - 102

91. (89) New Mexico (19-13) - 96

92. (100) Southern Miss (21-8) - 189

93. (113) Temple (17-13) - 77

94. (99) Albany (16-8) - 151

95. (114) Yale (19-5) - 249

96. (124) College of Charleston (17-11) - 120

97. (106) Princeton (18-5) - 223

98. (78) Texas Tech (14-17) - 30

99. (116) Texas State (19-12) - 125

100. (96) Marshall (21-8) - 214

101. (115) New Mexico State (22-8) - 204

102. (120) Saint Louis (15-14) - 59

103. (79) Bowling Green (21-8) - 199

104. (87) Portland State (20-9) - 176

105. (137) UT Rio Grande Valley (22-9) - 190

106. (117) SIUE (20-7) - 235

107. (83) South Carolina (17-13) - 118

108. (119) Denver (22-7) - 250

109. (88) Oklahoma (14-15) - 62

110. (123) Army (21-9) - 218

111. (90) Fresno State (15-14) - 95

112. (102) Louisville (15-15) - 70

113. (93) High Point (21-8) - 236

114. (81) Nevada (17-13) - 133

115. (101) Butler (20-14) - 144

116. (105) Maryland (13-19) - 40

117. (134) Northern Arizona (21-8) - 244

118. (75) Gonzaga (14-14) - 78

119. (131) Samford (20-11) - 168

120. (136) Oakland (18-12) - 152

121. (111) West Virginia (13-17) - 53

122. (121) Pepperdine (12-18) - 34

123. (128) East Tennessee State (20-8) - 229

124. (109) Oregon State (11-20) - 21

125. (126) Belmont (19-8) - 231

126. (98) Georgia (18-13) - 153

127. (133) Toledo (15-13) - 126

128. (132) Utah State (14-16) - 80

129. (108) Miami-FL (14-18) - 58

130. (154) Kennesaw State (16-12) - 148

131. (158) Rhode Island (16-10) - 179

132. (129) UNF (19-12) - 169

133. (138) American (23-9) - 252

134. (125) Arizona State (11-21) - 20

135. (151) Sacramento State (17-13) - 150

136. (174) Radford (22-6) - 289

137. (148) Milwaukee (15-12) - 139

138. (135) Sam Houston State (17-12) - 155

139. (146) Auburn (12-19) - 42

140. (127) Weber State (19-8) - 268

141. (182) Cal State Northridge (12-16) - 65

142. (143) Portland (14-16) - 92

143. (170) Seton Hall (14-17) - 97

144. (166) Stephen F. Austin (19-10) - 247

145. (95) Illinois-Chicago (19-12) - 201

146. (130) UC Irvine (13-18) - 88

147. (122) LSU (9-20) - 23

148. (147) Ohio (13-16) - 113

149. (159) Saint Marys (11-18) - 68

150. (155) Howard (22-5) - 315

151. (157) Fairfield (25-7) - 300

152. (171) Northern Colorado (16-12) - 182

153. (152) VCU (17-14) - 178

154. (180) Austin Peay (22-11) - 262

155. (172) Mississippi State (15-17) - 119

156. (118) Delaware (10-19) - 50

157. (165) Western Michigan (14-15) - 127

158. (164) Arkansas (8-22) - 18

159. (192) Texas-Arlington (16-15) - 167

160. (161) UMKC (16-11) - 221

161. (149) Elon (19-14) - 213

162. (140) Northwestern (10-22) - 38

163. (150) St. Johns (16-15) - 156

164. (177) Wright State (12-17) - 98

165. (156) Campbell (16-14) - 172

166. (184) Murray State (17-11) - 227

167. (139) UC Davis (13-16) - 122

168. (145) Northern Kentucky (13-14) - 145

169. (144) South Alabama (18-11) - 243

170. (163) Cal (9-21) - 45

171. (168) North Dakota (18-14) - 216

172. (153) Seattle (14-14) - 165

173. (181) Utah Valley (12-16) - 115

174. (141) East Carolina (16-14) - 185

175. (176) Loyola-Chicago (12-19) - 107

[badgerbreath]

Wow. What a different picture. 5 B1G teams in the top 10, and then not another until Illinois at 36. And Penn St at 40! Northwestern at 162? Yikes. Of course, Rutgers isn't even on the list!

[durtpile]

Bear with my ignorance here.
Why did MSU jump 5 spots after losing at home to Nebraska, while WSU jumped only 6 after winning at at Washington?

I get that this is the futures market, but don't understand how crunching numbers only boosted their future value based on comparative results.

Your top 25 is better than AVCA's, btw.

[ay2013]

Sept 26, 2016 18:48:24 GMT -5 durtpile said:

Bear with my ignorance here.
Why did MSU jump 5 spots after losing at home to Nebraska, while WSU jumped only 6 after winning at at Washington?

I get that this is the futures market, but don't understand how crunching numbers only boosted their future value based on comparative results.

Your top 25 is better than AVCA's, btw.

Last week MSU had a projected season ending record of 23-9, now they have a projected season ending record of 24-8, that's a direct increase of their own win-loss record, which is 25% of a teams RPI. They improved their Pablo rating by taking nebraska to 5...Pablo always thought MSU was going to lose to Nebraska, and both season ending projections reflect that, now Pablo thinks MSU will end up winning an additional match throughout the course of the season that they probably weren't favored to win last week.

WSU also has improved their own win-loss projection, but their SOS (75% of RPI) hasn't changed...they will generally only be able to crawl so high compared to other teams with much better SOS.

MSU has a SOS rank of 8, WSU has a SOS rank of 32, that's the difference.

[ay2013]

It's clear that the Michigan's played the preseason RPI game (whether purposefully or not) to perfection.

[TuesdayGone]

Agreee....My top 6 teams in country

Nebraska
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Texas
Florida
Stanford

[bluepenquin]

Sept 26, 2016 18:48:24 GMT -5 durtpile said:

Bear with my ignorance here.
Why did MSU jump 5 spots after losing at home to Nebraska, while WSU jumped only 6 after winning at at Washington?

I get that this is the futures market, but don't understand how crunching numbers only boosted their future value based on comparative results.

Your top 25 is better than AVCA's, btw.

As AY explained - Michigan State has a projected improvement of conference wins from 11.6 to 13.2.  The loss to Nebraska was already mostly baked into the projection last week, but the excellent scores they posted against Nebraska has lead Pablo to be much more optimistic in future matches.  Pablo sees Nebraska as clearly the best team in the country by a fairly wide margin.

But you have really hit on something with this question.  This is really a quirk in trying to compare RPI rating (a calculated number) and RPI rank.  As it turns out, Washington State had a bigger improvement in RPI than Michigan State.  MSU was #15 last week, but there was hardly any difference between #13 and #15.  They might as well have moved from #13 to #10.  While Washington State was #20 last week, but much farther away to #19. 

[bkedane]

Has there been systematic study of how accurate these projections are, by week, for past seasons?

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Sept 26, 2016 20:16:56 GMT -5 bkedane said:

Has there been systematic study of how accurate these projections are, by week, for past seasons?

They get better as the season progresses, but already more than 40 of the top 50 can be expected to finish in the top 50

[durtpile]

Sept 26, 2016 20:18:34 GMT -5 The Bofa on the Sofa said:

Sept 26, 2016 20:16:56 GMT -5 bkedane said:

They get better as the season progresses, but already more than 40 of the top 50 can be expected to finish in the top 50

I have no argument with that.  You can take the last 15 years of AVCA polls, and based on the previous year and returning starters, come up with a pretty accurate forecast of who will make the final top 25. There are the outliers of course, who would not be expected to have stellar seasons (BYU and Kansas being recent examples). The next 25 would be far more difficult, it would seem.

[big10volleyballfan]

Sept 26, 2016 18:47:41 GMT -5 badgerbreath said:

Wow. What a different picture. 5 B1G teams in the top 10, and then not another until Illinois at 36. And Penn St at 40! Northwestern at 162? Yikes. Of course, Rutgers isn't even on the list!

6 B1G teams in the Top 10.

[badgerbreath]

Sept 26, 2016 22:20:59 GMT -5 big10volleyballfan said:

Sept 26, 2016 18:47:41 GMT -5 badgerbreath said:

Wow. What a different picture. 5 B1G teams in the top 10, and then not another until Illinois at 36. And Penn St at 40! Northwestern at 162? Yikes. Of course, Rutgers isn't even on the list!

6 B1G teams in the Top 10.

Are you seriously asking me to count above 5? I'm not some six fingered monster!

(apologies to all the lovely 6-fingered peoples out there) 

[spikerthemovie]

I'm intrigued to see the next one -- looks like there will be a couple big moves near the top, with Florida and Nebraska already having reached their projected number of losses.

[MTC]

Penn State makes this listing a joke. It should be weighing the most recent performance more heavily. Any bloke can make a projection right once the season is over.

[durtpile]

Oct 18, 2016 5:50:42 GMT -5 MTC said:

Penn State makes this listing a joke. It should be weighing the most recent performance more heavily. Any bloke can make a projection right once the season is over.

meh.

I respect tPSu, but the jury is still out on them. The next couple of weeks will give them a chance to stake their claim.