RPI Futures - Week 10 (10/29/18)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on the season wins and losses plus the win probabilities of all future matches on the schedule per Pablo rating.

RPI Futures Rank. (Last Week Rank) School - Conference  RPI Score/% (Projected Wins - Losses rounded) - RPI Futures Strength of Schedule Rank

1. (1) Stanford - Pac 12 .7444 (27-2) - 3
2. (2) BYU - West Coast .7027 (28-0) - 25
3. (6) Illinois - Big Ten .7001 (27-4) - 6
4. (4) Minnesota - Big Ten .6954 (25-3) - 14
5. (5) Texas - Big 12 .6942 (19-5) - 2
6. (8) Wisconsin - Big Ten .6886 (22-6) - 4
7. (3) Pittsburgh - Atlantic Coast .6824 (28-2) - 26
8. (7) USC - Pac 12 .6793 (21-10) - 1
9. (9) Kentucky - Southeastern .6757 (23-5) - 8
10. (13) Washington State - Pac 12 .6608 (22-8) - 7
11. (12) UCF - American Athletic .6578 (26-4) - 28
12. (10) Nebraska - Big Ten .6526 (23-7) - 16
13. (11) Penn State - Big Ten .6490 (23-7) - 19
14. (14) Michigan - Big Ten .6461 (23-8) - 11
15. (16) Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley .6459 (23-8) - 13
16. (19) Creighton - Big East .6405 (26-4) - 62
17. (21) Purdue - Big Ten .6377 (22-9) - 15
18. (20) Oregon - Pac 12 .6355 (20-10) - 12
19. (15) Marquette - Big East .6343 (26-5) - 54
20. (17) Florida - Southeastern .6327 (24-6) - 45
21. (23) Cincinnati - American Athletic .6258 (24-8) - 37
22. (25) Baylor - Big 12 .6250 (17-10) - 10
23. (18) Cal Poly - Big West .6247 (24-3) - 99
24. (22) Texas State - Sun Belt .6231 (24-6) - 56
25. (27) Missouri - Southeastern .6150 (24-6) - 73
26. (28) Rice - Conference USA .6110 (22-5) - 82
27. (32) Illinois State - Missouri Valley .6077 (24-6) - 78
28. (24) Washington - Pac 12 .6044 (16-14) - 5
29. (37) East Tennessee State - Southern .6035 (25-6) - 106
30. (31) Florida State - Atlantic Coast .6016 (18-10) - 23
31. (26) UCLA - Pac 12 .6012 (15-12) - 9
32. (29) Louisville - Atlantic Coast .6009 (21-8) - 71
33. (30) Dayton - Atlantic 10 .6005 (21-8) - 60
34. (40) Tennessee - Southeastern .5987 (23-7) - 80
35. (33) South Carolina - Southeastern .5972 (18-10) - 34
36. (34) Kansas - Big 12 .5966 (17-10) - 24
37. (35) Saint Marys - West Coast .5959 (19-9) - 50
38. (36) Syracuse - Atlantic Coast .5956 (18-8) - 42
39. (57) Duke - Atlantic Coast .5929 (16-11) - 27
40. (41) Colorado State - Mountain West .5925 (23-7) - 93
41. (42) Denver - The Summit .5890 (27-1) - 254
42. (38) Utah - Pac 12 .5879 (17-14) - 18
43. (46) Stephen F. Austin - Southland .5873 (29-2) - 245
44. (39) Pepperdine - West Coast .5864 (20-9) - 64
45. (53) Notre Dame - Atlantic Coast .5862 (17-11) - 39
46. (75) Miami-FL - Atlantic Coast .5843 (16-9) - 47
47. (44) James Madison - Colonial .5840 (21-6) - 124
48. (43) Arizona - Pac 12 .5825 (21-11) - 69
49. (51) Wichita State - American Athletic .5815 (16-14) - 21
50. (45) Texas Tech - Big 12 .5805 (19-11) - 55
51. (67) San Diego - West Coast .5800 (17-11) - 41
52. (48) Alabama - Southeastern .5787 (22-10) - 79
53. (55) Hawaii - Big West .5768 (17-9) - 70
54. (60) UC Irvine - Big West .5762 (17-11) - 48
55. (54) Valparaiso - Missouri Valley .5761 (25-8) - 118
56. (63) VCU - Atlantic 10 .5761 (19-8) - 103
57. (71) Yale - Ivy .5747 (18-5) - 158
58. (56) High Point - Big South .5745 (20-9) - 94
59. (50) Loyola Marymount - West Coast .5745 (20-9) - 98
60. (70) Austin Peay - Ohio Valley .5735 (25-4) - 233
61. (73) Miami-OH - Mid-American .5724 (22-6) - 154
62. (80) Western Kentucky - Conference USA .5721 (19-10) - 86
63. (52) Princeton - Ivy .5713 (19-6) - 120
64. (49) Kansas State - Big 12 .5709 (15-12) - 32
65. (47) Portland - West Coast .5704 (20-10) - 95
66. (58) Iowa State - Big 12 .5700 (15-14) - 33
67. (84) Northwestern - Big Ten .5700 (16-16) - 20
68. (62) College of Charleston - Colonial .5697 (20-10) - 81
69. (76) Tulsa - American Athletic .5692 (20-10) - 91
70. (64) Indiana - Big Ten .5686 (17-14) - 36
71. (74) Colorado - Pac 12 .5682 (17-14) - 38
72. (59) New Mexico State - Western Athletic .5679 (21-8) - 135
73. (82) Florida Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun .5628 (23-7) - 173
74. (86) Tulane - American Athletic .5624 (24-9) - 152
75. (66) Ohio State - Big Ten .5622 (14-18) - 17
76. (69) Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun .5619 (23-6) - 212
77. (65) UTSA - Conference USA .5602 (19-7) - 136
78. (81) Oklahoma - Big 12 .5597 (16-12) - 65
79. (85) Florida Atlantic - Conference USA .5588 (20-7) - 182
80. (83) Hofstra - Colonial .5579 (22-8) - 170
81. (61) Iowa - Big Ten .5577 (16-15) - 43
82. (90) UT Rio Grande Valley - Western Athletic .5573 (21-9) - 132
83. (89) Fresno State - Mountain West .5564 (21-9) - 157
84. (78) Wyoming - Mountain West .5563 (20-10) - 113
85. (68) TCU - Big 12 .5557 (15-12) - 49
86. (72) Arizona State - Pac 12 .5554 (15-17) - 30
87. (87) Maryland - Big Ten .5547 (16-16) - 31
88. (77) Georgia - Southeastern .5528 (16-13) - 59
89. (96) American - Patriot .5524 (21-10) - 130
90. (88) Michigan State - Big Ten .5520 (17-16) - 53
91. (79) Texas A&M - Southeastern .5506 (16-14) - 67
92. (99) Auburn - Southeastern .5503 (13-15) - 29
93. (92) Ball State - Mid-American .5493 (22-7) - 239
94. (95) UCSB - Big West .5489 (17-11) - 100
95. (102) Georgia Tech - Atlantic Coast .5473 (17-14) - 76
96. (104) UMKC - Western Athletic .5473 (20-10) - 121
97. (91) Navy - Patriot .5458 (21-8) - 207
98. (106) Cal - Pac 12 .5455 (15-16) - 46
99. (97) Radford - Big South .5443 (21-4) - 280
100. (94) California Baptist - Western Athletic .5417 (20-8) - 203
101. (93) Arkansas-Little Rock - Sun Belt .5416 (18-11) - 128
102. (100) Arkansas - Southeastern .5409 (13-15) - 44
103. (109) USF - American Athletic .5399 (20-11) - 148
104. (111) UNCW - Colonial .5391 (16-10) - 144
105. (101) Bradley - Missouri Valley .5386 (21-9) - 202
106. (108) Appalachian State - Sun Belt .5378 (20-8) - 231
107. (118) St. Johns - Big East .5363 (22-11) - 195
108. (119) Ole Miss - Southeastern .5352 (15-17) - 57
109. (112) UC Davis - Big West .5339 (17-11) - 138
110. (113) Cleveland State - Horizon .5339 (19-9) - 197
111. (116) Clemson - Atlantic Coast .5339 (16-15) - 88
112. (105) LSU - Southeastern .5335 (10-19) - 22
113. (98) NC State - Atlantic Coast .5333 (13-15) - 58
114. (120) Stony Brook - America East .5315 (18-9) - 210
115. (114) Central Arkansas - Southland .5315 (23-6) - 286
116. (117) Loyola-Chicago - Missouri Valley .5303 (17-13) - 123
117. (107) Bowling Green - Mid-American .5300 (17-12) - 131
118. (130) Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun .5290 (17-11) - 160
119. (121) Missouri State - Missouri Valley .5275 (15-16) - 90
120. (141) Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt .5264 (12-12) - 92
121. (125) Villanova - Big East .5261 (16-14) - 112
122. (127) Utah Valley - Western Athletic .5261 (16-13) - 109
123. (137) Buffalo - Mid-American .5258 (17-11) - 164
124. (103) Drake - Missouri Valley .5257 (20-13) - 175
125. (135) South Dakota - The Summit .5256 (19-9) - 225
126. (133) Arkansas State - Sun Belt .5252 (17-12) - 133
127. (115) UNLV - Mountain West .5243 (19-11) - 189
128. (142) Northern Colorado - Big Sky .5237 (16-11) - 153
129. (132) Northern Arizona - Big Sky .5231 (22-9) - 266
130. (110) SMU - American Athletic .5224 (11-17) - 52
131. (126) Weber State - Big Sky .5214 (17-10) - 215
132. (124) Samford - Southern .5205 (16-14) - 129
133. (143) West Virginia - Big 12 .5186 (12-18) - 63
134. (131) Virginia Tech - Atlantic Coast .5181 (16-14) - 115
135. (128) CSU Bakersfield - Western Athletic .5179 (14-15) - 105
136. (159) Cornell - Ivy .5167 (14-10) - 183
137. (150) Sam Houston State - Southland .5164 (21-7) - 289
138. (148) Murray State - Ohio Valley .5156 (17-11) - 219
139. (129) Boise State - Mountain West .5156 (17-12) - 184
140. (149) Idaho - Big Sky .5154 (20-10) - 263
141. (147) Oregon State - Pac 12 .5147 (13-19) - 68
142. (122) Long Beach State - Big West .5144 (16-13) - 139
143. (134) UT Arlington - Sun Belt .5144 (15-11) - 177
144. (123) Florida International - Conference USA .5143 (16-12) - 165
145. (144) Houston - American Athletic .5141 (17-16) - 116
146. (138) Green Bay - Horizon .5135 (18-10) - 248
147. (166) New Mexico - Mountain West .5123 (15-15) - 122
148. (140) Wofford - Southern .5115 (15-14) - 127
149. (153) Northern Kentucky - Horizon .5099 (18-9) - 264
150. (136) Harvard - Ivy .5099 (12-11) - 137
151. (139) Illinois-Chicago - Horizon .5095 (18-11) - 234
152. (145) Towson - Colonial .5090 (14-16) - 107
153. (160) North Texas - Conference USA .5075 (14-17) - 102
154. (151) Southern Miss - Conference USA .5068 (16-13) - 172
155. (165) Colgate - Patriot .5060 (15-13) - 178
156. (171) Northeastern - Colonial .5047 (15-14) - 171
157. (163) Omaha - The Summit .5037 (17-11) - 242
158. (162) UConn - American Athletic .5009 (13-18) - 108
159. (172) Howard - Mid-Eastern .5008 (18-9) - 283
160. (167) Charlotte - Conference USA .5008 (16-14) - 205
161. (146) Air Force - Mountain West .5007 (16-16) - 151
162. (170) UAB - Conference USA .5001 (14-14) - 149
163. (157) Georgetown - Big East .4994 (15-15) - 179
164. (161) Sacramento State - Big Sky .4992 (18-14) - 217
165. (164) Pacific - West Coast .4983 (10-19) - 72
166. (174) La Salle - Atlantic 10 .4979 (17-11) - 273
167. (177) Louisiana-Lafayette - Sun Belt .4971 (16-14) - 192
168. (199) San Jose State - Mountain West .4965 (13-14) - 176
169. (154) LIU Brooklyn - Northeast .4963 (15-8) - 279
170. (156) Davidson - Atlantic 10 .4960 (13-12) - 209
171. (186) Iona - Metro Atlantic .4957 (18-7) - 306
172. (187) Ohio - Mid-American .4943 (13-16) - 134
173. (181) Memphis - American Athletic .4943 (13-17) - 117
174. (152) Abilene Christian - Southland .4929 (14-14) - 188
175. (168) Temple - American Athletic .4925 (8-22) - 35
176. (176) Xavier - Big East .4916 (11-19) - 87
177. (169) East Carolina - American Athletic .4908 (13-15) - 143
178. (179) Morehead State - Ohio Valley .4901 (20-9) - 303
179. (182) Boston College - Atlantic Coast .4898 (15-15) - 200
180. (175) Gonzaga - West Coast .4896 (9-20) - 61
181. (155) Lehigh - Patriot .4895 (19-9) - 300
182. (173) Western Michigan - Mid-American .4890 (15-15) - 223
183. (158) Eastern Michigan - Mid-American .4888 (16-14) - 249
184. (196) Stetson - Atlantic Sun .4880 (16-12) - 260
185. (185) Furman - Southern .4873 (12-15) - 161
186. (180) Winthrop - Big South .4868 (14-14) - 221
187. (192) Liberty - Atlantic Sun .4867 (14-16) - 187
188. (201) Albany - America East .4855 (16-9) - 295
189. (178) South Alabama - Sun Belt .4855 (13-16) - 167
190. (183) North Carolina - Atlantic Coast .4847 (7-20) - 51
191. (194) San Francisco - West Coast .4845 (9-20) - 83
192. (184) Grand Canyon - Western Athletic .4845 (12-16) - 142
193. (191) Butler - Big East .4843 (10-20) - 96
194. (189) UT Martin - Ohio Valley .4840 (15-15) - 220
195. (197) Northwestern State - Southland .4832 (13-13) - 211
196. (198) Bryant - Northeast .4827 (22-10) - 305
197. (190) North Dakota - The Summit .4820 (15-17) - 208
198. (215) Indiana State - Missouri Valley .4807 (11-19) - 111
199. (193) Cal State Northridge - Big West .4806 (9-19) - 84
200. (188) Fort Wayne - The Summit .4785 (16-14) - 265
201. (205) Seattle - Western Athletic .4779 (12-17) - 162
202. (208) Houston Baptist - Southland .4778 (14-16) - 235
203. (195) Seton Hall - Big East .4777 (10-21) - 97
204. (207) Mercer - Southern .4772 (14-13) - 251
205. (200) Idaho State - Big Sky .4771 (16-15) - 256
206. (227) Oakland - Horizon .4754 (11-16) - 147
207. (210) Rutgers - Big Ten .4754 (6-27) - 40
208. (203) Delaware - Colonial .4754 (10-18) - 119
209. (222) New Hampshire - America East .4744 (12-14) - 229
210. (209) San Diego State - Mountain West .4741 (10-21) - 104
211. (212) Wright State - Horizon .4737 (14-14) - 255
212. (206) Marshall - Conference USA .4733 (11-18) - 159
213. (224) Virginia - Atlantic Coast .4730 (9-19) - 110
214. (233) Western Carolina - Southern .4717 (13-14) - 262
215. (216) Southeast Missouri - Ohio Valley .4711 (16-13) - 285
216. (229) Army - Patriot .4710 (13-16) - 230
217. (211) Wake Forest - Atlantic Coast .4710 (9-21) - 101
218. (218) Santa Clara - West Coast .4706 (7-23) - 75
219. (213) Central Connecticut State - Northeast .4705 (13-12) - 269
220. (219) Dartmouth - Ivy .4704 (10-15) - 174
221. (202) Elon - Colonial .4704 (14-14) - 252
222. (204) Columbia - Ivy .4682 (10-14) - 224
223. (236) Saint Louis - Atlantic 10 .4677 (6-20) - 74
224. (214) Loyola University Maryland - Patriot .4676 (13-16) - 243
225. (217) UNC Greensboro - Southern .4675 (12-16) - 218
226. (226) Duquesne - Atlantic 10 .4663 (13-14) - 259
227. (221) Campbell - Big South .4658 (10-16) - 186
228. (231) Jacksonville State - Ohio Valley .4643 (17-13) - 292
229. (234) Northern Illinois - Mid-American .4639 (11-20) - 156
230. (223) Nevada - Mountain West .4638 (11-18) - 166
231. (220) Akron - Mid-American .4631 (12-15) - 244
232. (225) Montana State - Big Sky .4629 (12-17) - 238
233. (243) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Southland .4610 (9-20) - 125
234. (241) George Mason - Atlantic 10 .4607 (10-14) - 214
235. (228) Canisius - Metro Atlantic .4598 (15-12) - 298
236. (230) Chattanooga - Southern .4590 (9-20) - 146
237. (235) Troy University - Sun Belt .4586 (11-18) - 198
238. (237) Kent State - Mid-American .4582 (13-17) - 253
239. (261) UNC Asheville - Big South .4582 (13-13) - 272
240. (232) Evansville - Missouri Valley .4580 (9-22) - 126
241. (238) Utah State - Mountain West .4578 (6-23) - 85
242. (239) Sacred Heart - Northeast .4576 (15-10) - 308
243. (250) Charleston Southern - Big South .4551 (13-11) - 293
244. (240) Southern Illinois - Missouri Valley .4550 (5-26) - 66
245. (262) North Dakota State - The Summit .4548 (9-18) - 163
246. (248) Oral Roberts - The Summit .4547 (11-17) - 227
247. (245) Mississippi State - Southeastern .4543 (6-25) - 77
248. (242) McNeese State - Southland .4531 (9-22) - 150
249. (258) New Orleans - Southland .4487 (12-19) - 228
250. (252) Toledo - Mid-American .4484 (10-17) - 236
251. (264) Brown - Ivy .4476 (10-14) - 270
252. (247) Fairfield - Metro Atlantic .4471 (13-14) - 284
253. (249) George Washington - Atlantic 10 .4471 (9-17) - 232
254. (253) UTEP - Conference USA .4464 (5-21) - 89
255. (256) UC Riverside - Big West .4463 (8-20) - 169
256. (257) Chicago State - Western Athletic .4450 (9-24) - 155
257. (259) Louisiana-Monroe - Sun Belt .4445 (10-20) - 222
258. (270) SIUE - Ohio Valley .4444 (9-19) - 196
259. (246) Presbyterian - Big South .4437 (10-17) - 240
260. (255) Marist - Metro Atlantic .4433 (14-14) - 299
261. (254) Fordham - Atlantic 10 .4428 (11-16) - 267
262. (272) Providence - Big East .4427 (9-20) - 199
263. (260) DePaul - Big East .4425 (6-23) - 114
264. (265) Milwaukee - Horizon .4422 (9-20) - 213
265. (268) UNF - Atlantic Sun .4421 (11-21) - 237
266. (244) Eastern Illinois - Ohio Valley .4417 (10-21) - 201
267. (278) The Citadel - Southern .4414 (11-17) - 257
268. (280) Rider - Metro Atlantic .4403 (17-10) - 327
269. (266) Alabama A&M - Southwestern Athletic .4396 (21-14) - 326
270. (271) Bethune-Cookman - Mid-Eastern .4391 (16-14) - 312
271. (263) Rhode Island - Atlantic 10 .4377 (9-17) - 246
272. (276) Florida A&M - Mid-Eastern .4373 (10-15) - 277
273. (283) Central Michigan - Mid-American .4351 (6-22) - 145
274. (275) Alabama State - Southwestern Athletic .4347 (18-19) - 304
275. (267) Montana - Big Sky .4341 (10-20) - 247
276. (273) UMBC - America East .4338 (8-18) - 216
277. (274) Incarnate Word - Southland .4323 (9-18) - 258
278. (269) William & Mary - Colonial .4320 (5-20) - 141
279. (251) Morgan State - Mid-Eastern .4318 (14-13) - 319
280. (290) Holy Cross - Patriot .4308 (8-21) - 194
281. (279) Middle Tennessee - Conference USA .4286 (7-21) - 204
282. (277) Penn - Ivy .4266 (6-19) - 193
283. (291) Georgia State - Sun Belt .4239 (7-19) - 241
284. (286) South Carolina Upstate - Big South .4237 (12-18) - 288
285. (285) Robert Morris - Northeast .4220 (11-18) - 287
286. (281) Tennessee State - Ohio Valley .4213 (10-17) - 281
287. (289) Maryland Eastern Shore - Mid-Eastern .4192 (9-16) - 291
288. (284) St. Francis-PA - Northeast .4190 (6-21) - 191
289. (282) Southern Utah - Big Sky .4183 (5-25) - 140
290. (287) South Dakota State - The Summit .4173 (6-23) - 185
291. (288) IUPUI - Horizon .4169 (6-24) - 206
292. (303) Belmont - Ohio Valley .4163 (5-23) - 168
293. (296) Portland State - Big Sky .4155 (6-24) - 180
294. (294) Eastern Kentucky - Ohio Valley .4145 (5-23) - 190
295. (293) Hartford - America East .4105 (11-13) - 318
296. (292) Georgia Southern - Sun Belt .4100 (9-22) - 282
297. (295) Jacksonville - Atlantic Sun .4080 (5-24) - 181
298. (297) Youngstown State - Horizon .4038 (8-21) - 275
299. (298) Lamar - Southland .4037 (7-20) - 276
300. (301) Cal State Fullerton - Big West .3991 (6-23) - 261
301. (299) Eastern Washington - Big Sky .3978 (9-21) - 296
302. (304) Hampton - Big South .3977 (9-18) - 297
303. (300) North Carolina A&T - Mid-Eastern .3952 (11-12) - 333
304. (307) Niagara - Metro Atlantic .3951 (10-17) - 309
305. (306) Louisiana Tech - Conference USA .3940 (6-23) - 274
306. (309) Quinnipiac - Metro Atlantic .3933 (8-20) - 294
307. (302) Tennessee Tech - Ohio Valley .3908 (10-20) - 315
308. (305) Gardner-Webb - Big South .3879 (7-22) - 290
309. (308) Binghamton - America East .3870 (5-20) - 278
310. (310) Nicholls State - Southland .3805 (4-25) - 250
311. (316) St. Francis-Brooklyn - Northeast .3765 (9-19) - 320
312. (311) Arkansas-Pine Bluff - Southwestern Athletic .3762 (8-19) - 301
313. (312) North Alabama - Atlantic Sun .3734 (4-21) - 268
314. (315) Western Illinois - The Summit .3720 (2-27) - 226
315. (314) Texas Southern - Southwestern Athletic .3715 (10-21) - 316
316. (313) Bucknell - Patriot .3691 (7-20) - 310
317. (317) Jackson State - Southwestern Athletic .3601 (12-21) - 332
318. (318) Southeastern Louisiana - Southland .3587 (3-26) - 271
319. (319) Coppin State - Mid-Eastern .3562 (9-22) - 325
320. (322) Lafayette - Patriot .3505 (6-22) - 307
321. (320) North Carolina Central - Mid-Eastern .3451 (6-18) - 328
322. (324) Southern - Southwestern Athletic .3440 (11-17) - 336
323. (321) Saint Peters - Metro Atlantic .3396 (7-25) - 317
324. (323) Manhattan College - Metro Atlantic .3389 (5-26) - 311
325. (325) Grambling State - Southwestern Athletic .3380 (7-22) - 321
326. (326) UMass-Lowell - America East .3363 (4-22) - 313
327. (327) NJIT - Atlantic Sun .3288 (5-27) - 314
328. (329) Siena - Metro Atlantic .3234 (3-28) - 302
329. (328) Prairie View A&M - Southwestern Athletic .3221 (7-21) - 330
330. (330) Norfolk State - Mid-Eastern .3164 (4-17) - 329
331. (331) Alcorn State - Southwestern Athletic .3002 (5-17) - 335
332. (333) Savannah State - Mid-Eastern .2984 (4-20) - 334
333. (332) Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast .2955 (3-27) - 323
334. (334) Delaware State - Mid-Eastern .2911 (3-26) - 322
335. (335) Mississippi Valley State - Southwestern Athletic .2840 (2-27) - 324
336. (336) South Carolina State - Mid-Eastern .2650 (1-25) - 331

[johnbar]

For the Pac-12, Stanford is expected to have one more loss, while USC, WSU and Oregon are expected to pick up 3 losses each. If that turns out to be correct, Stanford would win the conference by 6 games. I don't recall a margin that big before.

[leftcoaster71]

Oct 29, 2018 16:49:54 GMT -5 johnbar said:

For the Pac-12, Stanford is expected to have one more loss, while USC, WSU and Oregon are expected to pick up 3 losses each. If that turns out to be correct, Stanford would win the conference by 6 games. I don't recall a margin that big before.

I believe Stanford did in 1995. They went 18-0 and WSU and UCLA went 12-6 to finish tied for 2nd.

[c4ndlelight]

Oct 29, 2018 16:49:54 GMT -5 johnbar said:

For the Pac-12, Stanford is expected to have one more loss, while USC, WSU and Oregon are expected to pick up 3 losses each. If that turns out to be correct, Stanford would win the conference by 6 games. I don't recall a margin that big before.

Stanford is just playing a level above everyone else, and in the brief moments they aren't 100% dialed in, they have Hentz and Plummer to make it not matter.

[bluepenquin]

Here is the probabilities from 1000 simulations.

1. (1) Stanford - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 1.001 T4 - 100% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
2. (2) BYU - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 3.233 T4 - 86% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
3. (3) Illinois - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 3.801 T4 - 70% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
4. (4) Minnesota - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 4.482 T4 - 53% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
5. (5) Texas - Big 12 Avg RPI Rank 4.693 T4 - 49% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
6. (6) Wisconsin - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 5.658 T4 - 31% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
7. (7) Pittsburgh - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 6.975 T4 - 5% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
8. (8) USC - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 8.028 T4 - 5% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
9. (9) Kentucky - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 8.198 T4 - 2% T16 - >99% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
10. (10) Washington State - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 11.432 T4 - 0% T16 - 95% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
11. (11) UCF - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 11.788 T4 - 0% T16 - 95% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
12. (12) Nebraska - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 12.68 T4 - 0% T16 - 89% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
13. (13) Penn State - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 14.01 T4 - 0% T16 - 76% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
14. (15) Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley Avg RPI Rank 14.689 T4 - 0% T16 - 81% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
15. (14) Michigan - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 15.123 T4 - 0% T16 - 68% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
16. (16) Creighton - Big East Avg RPI Rank 16.552 T4 - 0% T16 - 54% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
17. (17) Purdue - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 17.647 T4 - 0% T16 - 39% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
18. (18) Oregon - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 18.331 T4 - 0% T16 - 37% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
19. (19) Marquette - Big East Avg RPI Rank 18.469 T4 - 0% T16 - 21% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
20. (20) Florida - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 19.654 T4 - 0% T16 - 21% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
21. (22) Baylor - Big 12 Avg RPI Rank 22.09 T4 - 0% T16 - 11% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
22. (21) Cincinnati - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 22.217 T4 - 0% T16 - 7% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
23. (23) Cal Poly - Big West Avg RPI Rank 22.359 T4 - 0% T16 - 3% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
24. (24) Texas State - Sun Belt Avg RPI Rank 22.367 T4 - 0% T16 - <1% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
25. (25) Missouri - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 26.316 T4 - 0% T16 - 1% T45 - >99% T90 - 100%
26. (26) Rice - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 27.364 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
27. (27) Illinois State - Missouri Valley Avg RPI Rank 30.447 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 99% T90 - 100%
28. (29) East Tennessee State - Southern Avg RPI Rank 32.283 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 99% T90 - 100%
29. (33) Dayton - Atlantic 10 Avg RPI Rank 33.235 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - >99% T90 - 100%
30. (28) Washington - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 33.286 T4 - 0% T16 - <1% T45 - 92% T90 - 100%
31. (30) Florida State - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 34.086 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 92% T90 - 100%
32. (32) Louisville - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 34.471 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 92% T90 - 100%
33. (34) Tennessee - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 34.956 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 90% T90 - 100%
34. (31) UCLA - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 36.656 T4 - 0% T16 - <1% T45 - 82% T90 - 100%
35. (37) Saint Marys - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 37.373 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 82% T90 - 100%
36. (35) South Carolina - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 37.428 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 81% T90 - 100%
37. (36) Kansas - Big 12 Avg RPI Rank 37.808 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 81% T90 - 100%
38. (38) Syracuse - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 38.56 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 81% T90 - 100%
39. (40) Colorado State - Mountain West Avg RPI Rank 39.71 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 81% T90 - 100%
40. (39) Duke - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 41.03 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 72% T90 - 100%
41. (41) Denver - The Summit Avg RPI Rank 42.083 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 77% T90 - 100%
42. (43) Stephen F. Austin - Southland Avg RPI Rank 45.58 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 59% T90 - 100%
43. (44) Pepperdine - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 45.636 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 56% T90 - 100%
44. (42) Utah - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 46.382 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 52% T90 - 100%
45. (47) James Madison - Colonial Avg RPI Rank 47.064 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 49% T90 - 100%
46. (45) Notre Dame - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 47.496 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 49% T90 - >99%
47. (46) Miami-FL - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 51.083 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 38% T90 - >99%
48. (49) Wichita State - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 51.548 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 35% T90 - >99%
49. (48) Arizona - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 51.966 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 34% T90 - >99%
50. (51) San Diego - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 52.771 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 29% T90 - 100%
51. (50) Texas Tech - Big 12 Avg RPI Rank 53.574 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 30% T90 - >99%
52. (52) Alabama - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 54.835 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 25% T90 - >99%
53. (56) VCU - Atlantic 10 Avg RPI Rank 56.527 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 13% T90 - >99%
54. (55) Valparaiso - Missouri Valley Avg RPI Rank 57.618 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 14% T90 - >99%
55. (53) Hawaii - Big West Avg RPI Rank 57.622 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 17% T90 - >99%
56. (54) UC Irvine - Big West Avg RPI Rank 58.326 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 15% T90 - >99%
57. (57) Yale - Ivy Avg RPI Rank 59.102 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 6% T90 - 99%
58. (58) High Point - Big South Avg RPI Rank 59.226 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - >99%
59. (59) Loyola Marymount - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 59.662 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 13% T90 - >99%
60. (60) Austin Peay - Ohio Valley Avg RPI Rank 59.669 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 3% T90 - >99%
61. (61) Miami-OH - Mid-American Avg RPI Rank 62.215 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 5% T90 - >99%
62. (63) Princeton - Ivy Avg RPI Rank 62.232 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - <1% T90 - >99%
63. (62) Western Kentucky - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 63.383 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 2% T90 - 99%
64. (65) Portland - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 63.545 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 8% T90 - 97%
65. (64) Kansas State - Big 12 Avg RPI Rank 64.631 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 10% T90 - 97%
66. (66) Iowa State - Big 12 Avg RPI Rank 65.267 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 8% T90 - 96%
67. (67) Northwestern - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 65.568 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 6% T90 - 99%
68. (68) College of Charleston - Colonial Avg RPI Rank 65.833 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - <1% T90 - >99%
69. (70) Indiana - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 67.184 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 8% T90 - 95%
70. (69) Tulsa - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 68.314 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 6% T90 - 94%
71. (72) New Mexico State - Western Athletic Avg RPI Rank 68.824 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 1% T90 - 95%
72. (71) Colorado - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 70.697 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 4% T90 - 93%
73. (73) Florida Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun Avg RPI Rank 73.321 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 95%
74. (75) Ohio State - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 73.943 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 2% T90 - 91%
75. (76) Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun Avg RPI Rank 75.77 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 94%
76. (74) Tulane - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 75.904 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 90%
77. (79) Florida Atlantic - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 76.753 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 89%
78. (78) Oklahoma - Big 12 Avg RPI Rank 77.646 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 1% T90 - 79%
79. (77) UTSA - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 78.483 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 91%
80. (81) Iowa - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 81.158 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 1% T90 - 73%
81. (80) Hofstra - Colonial Avg RPI Rank 81.213 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 84%
82. (82) UT Rio Grande Valley - Western Athletic Avg RPI Rank 82.853 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 76%
83. (85) TCU - Big 12 Avg RPI Rank 83.111 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - <1% T90 - 69%
84. (84) Wyoming - Mountain West Avg RPI Rank 83.606 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 73%
85. (83) Fresno State - Mountain West Avg RPI Rank 84.165 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 72%
86. (86) Arizona State - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 84.409 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - <1% T90 - 64%
87. (87) Maryland - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 84.704 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - <1% T90 - 64%
88. (88) Georgia - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 85.983 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - <1% T90 - 61%
89. (90) Michigan State - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 87.554 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - <1% T90 - 56%
90. (89) American - Patriot Avg RPI Rank 87.802 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 64%
91. (94) UCSB - Big West Avg RPI Rank 90.786 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 47%
92. (91) Texas A&M - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 90.83 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 47%
93. (92) Auburn - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 90.958 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 48%
94. (93) Ball State - Mid-American Avg RPI Rank 91.958 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 45%
95. (95) Georgia Tech - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 94.066 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 35%
96. (96) UMKC - Western Athletic Avg RPI Rank 94.51 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 38%
97. (97) Navy - Patriot Avg RPI Rank 96.751 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 26%
98. (99) Radford - Big South Avg RPI Rank 98.233 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 17%
99. (98) Cal - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 98.888 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - <1% T90 - 26%
100. (100) California Baptist - Western Athletic Avg RPI Rank 101.534 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 16%
101. (101) Arkansas-Little Rock - Sun Belt Avg RPI Rank 102.605 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 14%
102. (103) USF - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 103.088 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 19%
103. (102) Arkansas - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 103.25 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 22%
104. (104) UNCW - Colonial Avg RPI Rank 106.087 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 9%
105. (106) Appalachian State - Sun Belt Avg RPI Rank 106.637 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 2%
106. (107) St. Johns - Big East Avg RPI Rank 108.584 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 4%
107. (105) Bradley - Missouri Valley Avg RPI Rank 109.345 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 9%
108. (111) Clemson - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 111.204 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 3%
109. (109) UC Davis - Big West Avg RPI Rank 111.765 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 5%
110. (108) Ole Miss - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 112.012 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 7%
111. (110) Cleveland State - Horizon Avg RPI Rank 112.125 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - <1%
112. (112) LSU - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 113.254 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 8%
113. (114) Stony Brook - America East Avg RPI Rank 114.904 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
114. (113) NC State - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 115.043 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 5%
115. (115) Central Arkansas - Southland Avg RPI Rank 115.248 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
116. (117) Bowling Green - Mid-American Avg RPI Rank 117.082 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - <1%
117. (116) Loyola-Chicago - Missouri Valley Avg RPI Rank 117.089 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 2%
118. (118) Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun Avg RPI Rank 118.725 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - <1%
119. (119) Missouri State - Missouri Valley Avg RPI Rank 122.274 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - <1%
120. (122) Utah Valley - Western Athletic Avg RPI Rank 123.089 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - <1%
121. (120) Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt Avg RPI Rank 123.201 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
122. (123) Buffalo - Mid-American Avg RPI Rank 123.45 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
123. (121) Villanova - Big East Avg RPI Rank 124.109 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - <1%
124. (126) Arkansas State - Sun Belt Avg RPI Rank 124.579 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - <1%
125. (125) South Dakota - The Summit Avg RPI Rank 124.758 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
126. (124) Drake - Missouri Valley Avg RPI Rank 125.193 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
127. (127) UNLV - Mountain West Avg RPI Rank 126.258 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - <1%
128. (128) Northern Colorado - Big Sky Avg RPI Rank 126.608 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - <1%
129. (129) Northern Arizona - Big Sky Avg RPI Rank 128.865 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
130. (130) SMU - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 130.039 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 1%
131. (131) Weber State - Big Sky Avg RPI Rank 130.805 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
132. (132) Samford - Southern Avg RPI Rank 131.576 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
133. (133) West Virginia - Big 12 Avg RPI Rank 134.723 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - <1%
134. (135) CSU Bakersfield - Western Athletic Avg RPI Rank 135.004 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
135. (134) Virginia Tech - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 136.224 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
136. (138) Murray State - Ohio Valley Avg RPI Rank 138.744 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
137. (140) Idaho - Big Sky Avg RPI Rank 138.934 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
138. (136) Cornell - Ivy Avg RPI Rank 138.985 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
139. (139) Boise State - Mountain West Avg RPI Rank 139.333 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
140. (142) Long Beach State - Big West Avg RPI Rank 139.922 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
141. (137) Sam Houston State - Southland Avg RPI Rank 140.145 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
142. (141) Oregon State - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 141.072 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - <1%
143. (144) Florida International - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 141.554 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
144. (143) UT Arlington - Sun Belt Avg RPI Rank 141.871 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
145. (146) Green Bay - Horizon Avg RPI Rank 143.202 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
146. (145) Houston - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 144.831 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
147. (147) New Mexico - Mountain West Avg RPI Rank 145.024 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
148. (148) Wofford - Southern Avg RPI Rank 145.703 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
149. (149) Northern Kentucky - Horizon Avg RPI Rank 147.142 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
150. (151) Illinois-Chicago - Horizon Avg RPI Rank 147.894 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
151. (150) Harvard - Ivy Avg RPI Rank 148.007 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
152. (152) Towson - Colonial Avg RPI Rank 148.446 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
153. (154) Southern Miss - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 153.32 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
154. (155) Colgate - Patriot Avg RPI Rank 154.06 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
155. (153) North Texas - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 154.19 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
156. (156) Northeastern - Colonial Avg RPI Rank 155.359 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
157. (157) Omaha - The Summit Avg RPI Rank 157.671 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
158. (159) Howard - Mid-Eastern Avg RPI Rank 162.316 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
159. (160) Charlotte - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 162.357 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
160. (158) UConn - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 162.919 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
161. (161) Air Force - Mountain West Avg RPI Rank 163.156 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
162. (162) UAB - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 164.058 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
163. (164) Sacramento State - Big Sky Avg RPI Rank 164.927 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
164. (163) Georgetown - Big East Avg RPI Rank 166.461 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
165. (165) Pacific - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 167.32 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
166. (166) La Salle - Atlantic 10 Avg RPI Rank 168.014 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
167. (168) San Jose State - Mountain West Avg RPI Rank 169.009 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
168. (167) Louisiana-Lafayette - Sun Belt Avg RPI Rank 169.428 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
169. (170) Davidson - Atlantic 10 Avg RPI Rank 170.771 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
170. (169) LIU Brooklyn - Northeast Avg RPI Rank 170.945 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
171. (171) Iona - Metro Atlantic Avg RPI Rank 171.547 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
172. (172) Ohio - Mid-American Avg RPI Rank 173.892 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
173. (173) Memphis - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 174.785 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
174. (174) Abilene Christian - Southland Avg RPI Rank 176.229 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
175. (175) Temple - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 177.575 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
176. (176) Xavier - Big East Avg RPI Rank 179.029 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
177. (177) East Carolina - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 179.995 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
178. (179) Boston College - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 180.135 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
179. (180) Gonzaga - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 181.039 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
180. (178) Morehead State - Ohio Valley Avg RPI Rank 181.194 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
181. (181) Lehigh - Patriot Avg RPI Rank 182.239 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
182. (182) Western Michigan - Mid-American Avg RPI Rank 182.886 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
183. (184) Stetson - Atlantic Sun Avg RPI Rank 184.991 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
184. (183) Eastern Michigan - Mid-American Avg RPI Rank 185.21 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
185. (185) Furman - Southern Avg RPI Rank 185.732 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
186. (186) Winthrop - Big South Avg RPI Rank 186.227 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
187. (187) Liberty - Atlantic Sun Avg RPI Rank 186.279 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
188. (189) South Alabama - Sun Belt Avg RPI Rank 189.354 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
189. (188) Albany - America East Avg RPI Rank 189.41 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
190. (193) Butler - Big East Avg RPI Rank 190.488 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
191. (191) San Francisco - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 190.773 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
192. (190) North Carolina - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 190.836 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
193. (194) UT Martin - Ohio Valley Avg RPI Rank 191.411 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
194. (192) Grand Canyon - Western Athletic Avg RPI Rank 191.8 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
195. (196) Bryant - Northeast Avg RPI Rank 192.603 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
196. (195) Northwestern State - Southland Avg RPI Rank 192.823 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
197. (197) North Dakota - The Summit Avg RPI Rank 195.556 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
198. (198) Indiana State - Missouri Valley Avg RPI Rank 197.507 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
199. (199) Cal State Northridge - Big West Avg RPI Rank 197.654 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
200. (200) Fort Wayne - The Summit Avg RPI Rank 201.435 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
201. (204) Mercer - Southern Avg RPI Rank 202.16 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
202. (201) Seattle - Western Athletic Avg RPI Rank 202.522 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
203. (203) Seton Hall - Big East Avg RPI Rank 202.616 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
204. (205) Idaho State - Big Sky Avg RPI Rank 203.569 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
205. (202) Houston Baptist - Southland Avg RPI Rank 203.9 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
206. (206) Oakland - Horizon Avg RPI Rank 206.608 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
207. (207) Rutgers - Big Ten Avg RPI Rank 207.911 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
208. (209) New Hampshire - America East Avg RPI Rank 208.377 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
209. (208) Delaware - Colonial Avg RPI Rank 208.418 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
210. (210) San Diego State - Mountain West Avg RPI Rank 208.558 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
211. (212) Marshall - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 211.639 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
212. (211) Wright State - Horizon Avg RPI Rank 211.699 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
213. (213) Virginia - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 212.291 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
214. (214) Western Carolina - Southern Avg RPI Rank 215.195 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
215. (217) Wake Forest - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 215.489 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
216. (216) Army - Patriot Avg RPI Rank 215.946 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
217. (215) Southeast Missouri - Ohio Valley Avg RPI Rank 216.267 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
218. (219) Central Connecticut State - Northeast Avg RPI Rank 216.619 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
219. (218) Santa Clara - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 216.834 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
220. (220) Dartmouth - Ivy Avg RPI Rank 217.212 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
221. (221) Elon - Colonial Avg RPI Rank 217.416 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
222. (223) Saint Louis - Atlantic 10 Avg RPI Rank 220.873 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
223. (225) UNC Greensboro - Southern Avg RPI Rank 222.184 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
224. (224) Loyola University Maryland - Patriot Avg RPI Rank 222.336 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
225. (222) Columbia - Ivy Avg RPI Rank 222.536 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
226. (227) Campbell - Big South Avg RPI Rank 224.698 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
227. (226) Duquesne - Atlantic 10 Avg RPI Rank 224.734 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
228. (228) Jacksonville State - Ohio Valley Avg RPI Rank 227.02 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
229. (230) Nevada - Mountain West Avg RPI Rank 227.668 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
230. (229) Northern Illinois - Mid-American Avg RPI Rank 228.137 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
231. (232) Montana State - Big Sky Avg RPI Rank 228.456 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
232. (231) Akron - Mid-American Avg RPI Rank 229.176 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
233. (233) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Southland Avg RPI Rank 231.443 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
234. (234) George Mason - Atlantic 10 Avg RPI Rank 233.05 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
235. (239) UNC Asheville - Big South Avg RPI Rank 234.967 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
236. (235) Canisius - Metro Atlantic Avg RPI Rank 235.298 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
237. (236) Chattanooga - Southern Avg RPI Rank 236.074 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
238. (242) Sacred Heart - Northeast Avg RPI Rank 236.351 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
239. (237) Troy University - Sun Belt Avg RPI Rank 237.341 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
240. (241) Utah State - Mountain West Avg RPI Rank 237.541 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
241. (238) Kent State - Mid-American Avg RPI Rank 237.593 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
242. (240) Evansville - Missouri Valley Avg RPI Rank 238.21 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
243. (244) Southern Illinois - Missouri Valley Avg RPI Rank 241.832 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
244. (243) Charleston Southern - Big South Avg RPI Rank 242.32 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
245. (245) North Dakota State - The Summit Avg RPI Rank 242.474 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
246. (246) Oral Roberts - The Summit Avg RPI Rank 242.805 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
247. (247) Mississippi State - Southeastern Avg RPI Rank 244.684 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
248. (248) McNeese State - Southland Avg RPI Rank 245.445 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
249. (249) New Orleans - Southland Avg RPI Rank 249.66 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
250. (250) Toledo - Mid-American Avg RPI Rank 253.053 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
251. (251) Brown - Ivy Avg RPI Rank 253.209 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
252. (252) Fairfield - Metro Atlantic Avg RPI Rank 253.598 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
253. (253) George Washington - Atlantic 10 Avg RPI Rank 254.861 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
254. (255) UC Riverside - Big West Avg RPI Rank 255.545 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
255. (254) UTEP - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 256.051 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
256. (256) Chicago State - Western Athletic Avg RPI Rank 257.679 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
257. (257) Louisiana-Monroe - Sun Belt Avg RPI Rank 258.498 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
258. (258) SIUE - Ohio Valley Avg RPI Rank 258.932 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
259. (260) Marist - Metro Atlantic Avg RPI Rank 260.386 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
260. (265) UNF - Atlantic Sun Avg RPI Rank 260.756 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
261. (261) Fordham - Atlantic 10 Avg RPI Rank 260.818 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
262. (262) Providence - Big East Avg RPI Rank 261.121 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
263. (259) Presbyterian - Big South Avg RPI Rank 261.129 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
264. (263) DePaul - Big East Avg RPI Rank 261.219 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
265. (267) The Citadel - Southern Avg RPI Rank 261.252 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
266. (264) Milwaukee - Horizon Avg RPI Rank 261.763 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
267. (266) Eastern Illinois - Ohio Valley Avg RPI Rank 262.953 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
268. (268) Rider - Metro Atlantic Avg RPI Rank 263.879 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
269. (269) Alabama A&M - Southwestern Athletic Avg RPI Rank 265.501 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
270. (270) Bethune-Cookman - Mid-Eastern Avg RPI Rank 266.714 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
271. (271) Rhode Island - Atlantic 10 Avg RPI Rank 267.881 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
272. (272) Florida A&M - Mid-Eastern Avg RPI Rank 268.939 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
273. (273) Central Michigan - Mid-American Avg RPI Rank 270.816 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
274. (274) Alabama State - Southwestern Athletic Avg RPI Rank 271.454 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
275. (275) Montana - Big Sky Avg RPI Rank 271.956 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
276. (276) UMBC - America East Avg RPI Rank 273.084 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
277. (277) Incarnate Word - Southland Avg RPI Rank 274.751 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
278. (279) Morgan State - Mid-Eastern Avg RPI Rank 275.598 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
279. (278) William & Mary - Colonial Avg RPI Rank 275.924 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
280. (280) Holy Cross - Patriot Avg RPI Rank 276.857 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
281. (281) Middle Tennessee - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 279.179 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
282. (282) Penn - Ivy Avg RPI Rank 280.099 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
283. (284) South Carolina Upstate - Big South Avg RPI Rank 282.367 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
284. (283) Georgia State - Sun Belt Avg RPI Rank 283.334 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
285. (286) Tennessee State - Ohio Valley Avg RPI Rank 285.282 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
286. (285) Robert Morris - Northeast Avg RPI Rank 285.823 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
287. (287) Maryland Eastern Shore - Mid-Eastern Avg RPI Rank 287.076 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
288. (289) Southern Utah - Big Sky Avg RPI Rank 287.84 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
289. (288) St. Francis-PA - Northeast Avg RPI Rank 288.394 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
290. (290) South Dakota State - The Summit Avg RPI Rank 288.64 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
291. (291) IUPUI - Horizon Avg RPI Rank 289.212 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
292. (292) Belmont - Ohio Valley Avg RPI Rank 289.469 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
293. (293) Portland State - Big Sky Avg RPI Rank 290.201 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
294. (294) Eastern Kentucky - Ohio Valley Avg RPI Rank 291.151 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
295. (295) Hartford - America East Avg RPI Rank 293.831 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
296. (296) Georgia Southern - Sun Belt Avg RPI Rank 294.566 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
297. (297) Jacksonville - Atlantic Sun Avg RPI Rank 295.679 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
298. (299) Lamar - Southland Avg RPI Rank 298.131 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
299. (298) Youngstown State - Horizon Avg RPI Rank 298.654 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
300. (300) Cal State Fullerton - Big West Avg RPI Rank 301.006 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
301. (301) Eastern Washington - Big Sky Avg RPI Rank 301.198 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
302. (302) Hampton - Big South Avg RPI Rank 302.243 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
303. (304) Niagara - Metro Atlantic Avg RPI Rank 303.416 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
304. (303) North Carolina A&T - Mid-Eastern Avg RPI Rank 303.547 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
305. (305) Louisiana Tech - Conference USA Avg RPI Rank 304.001 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
306. (306) Quinnipiac - Metro Atlantic Avg RPI Rank 304.192 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
307. (307) Tennessee Tech - Ohio Valley Avg RPI Rank 305.782 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
308. (309) Binghamton - America East Avg RPI Rank 307.247 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
309. (308) Gardner-Webb - Big South Avg RPI Rank 307.439 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
310. (310) Nicholls State - Southland Avg RPI Rank 310.298 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
311. (312) Arkansas-Pine Bluff - Southwestern Athletic Avg RPI Rank 311.001 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
312. (311) St. Francis-Brooklyn - Northeast Avg RPI Rank 311.905 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
313. (313) North Alabama - Atlantic Sun Avg RPI Rank 313.3 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
314. (314) Western Illinois - The Summit Avg RPI Rank 313.485 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
315. (315) Texas Southern - Southwestern Athletic Avg RPI Rank 313.6 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
316. (316) Bucknell - Patriot Avg RPI Rank 314.731 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
317. (318) Southeastern Louisiana - Southland Avg RPI Rank 317.739 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
318. (317) Jackson State - Southwestern Athletic Avg RPI Rank 317.984 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
319. (319) Coppin State - Mid-Eastern Avg RPI Rank 318.325 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
320. (320) Lafayette - Patriot Avg RPI Rank 320.301 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
321. (322) Southern - Southwestern Athletic Avg RPI Rank 321.877 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
322. (321) North Carolina Central - Mid-Eastern Avg RPI Rank 322.054 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
323. (323) Saint Peters - Metro Atlantic Avg RPI Rank 323.612 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
324. (325) Grambling State - Southwestern Athletic Avg RPI Rank 323.841 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
325. (324) Manhattan College - Metro Atlantic Avg RPI Rank 324.186 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
326. (326) UMass-Lowell - America East Avg RPI Rank 324.992 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
327. (327) NJIT - Atlantic Sun Avg RPI Rank 326.633 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
328. (329) Prairie View A&M - Southwestern Athletic Avg RPI Rank 327.964 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
329. (328) Siena - Metro Atlantic Avg RPI Rank 328.022 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
330. (330) Norfolk State - Mid-Eastern Avg RPI Rank 329.176 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
331. (331) Alcorn State - Southwestern Athletic Avg RPI Rank 331.826 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
332. (332) Savannah State - Mid-Eastern Avg RPI Rank 332.252 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
333. (333) Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast Avg RPI Rank 332.776 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
334. (334) Delaware State - Mid-Eastern Avg RPI Rank 333.215 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
335. (335) Mississippi Valley State - Southwestern Athletic Avg RPI Rank 334.243 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%
336. (336) South Carolina State - Mid-Eastern Avg RPI Rank 335.967 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0% T90 - 0%

[bluepenquin]

Wisconsin has a 9% chance of winning the rest of their matches. Illinois has a 30% chance. 28 times out of 1000 both teams won the rest of their matches. Wisconsin finished with the better RPI 19 of those 28 times.

15 times out of 1000 Illinois and Wisconsin won all their matches and Minnesota only loses to Wisconsin. Just 1 of those 15 times did Minnesota finish in the top 4 (at #4) and that was with BYU losing a match. They finished 5th 4 times, 6th 9 times and 7th once. 2/3 of the time they were not in the top 5.

And the perfect storm scenario - BYU, Texas, Illinois, Wisconsin win the rest of their matches while Minnesota only loses at Wisconsin. This happened only 4 times - so less than a 1% chance of happening. In each instance, BYU finished 5th in RPI and Minnesota finished 6th. Texas, Illinois, and Wisconsin traded off between #2 through #4.

[bluepenquin]

UCF has a 24.3% chance of winning the rest of their matches. In those 243 times - they never finish with an RPI worse than 12. They have a 38.4% chance of losing 1 more match. In those 384 times, they finish no worse than #14 and 91% of the time they finish 12th or better. With some T25 and T50 wins - I think they are likely to be a seed?

[c4ndlelight]

Oct 29, 2018 18:04:45 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

UCF has a 24.3% chance of winning the rest of their matches. In those 243 times - they never finish with an RPI worse than 12. They have a 38.4% chance of losing 1 more match. In those 384 times, they finish no worse than #14 and 91% of the time they finish 12th or better. With some T25 and T50 wins - I think they are likely to be a seed?

If Florida doesn't win @ky, it's looking pretty likely they'll be heading to a UCF subregional. With someone like Miami as a 3rd seed. And Mary might want to take that over the potential subregional visitors they'd get if they did host (likely FSU and a feistier fly-in)

[bluepenquin]

Purdue has remaining matches at Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois and home against Nebraska. If they go 4-4 in their final 8 mathces - their average RPI is 15.8. They have a 63% chance of finishing in the top 16 and 83% chance of finishing in the top 17.

[bluepenquin]

Oct 29, 2018 18:10:36 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Oct 29, 2018 18:04:45 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

UCF has a 24.3% chance of winning the rest of their matches. In those 243 times - they never finish with an RPI worse than 12. They have a 38.4% chance of losing 1 more match. In those 384 times, they finish no worse than #14 and 91% of the time they finish 12th or better. With some T25 and T50 wins - I think they are likely to be a seed?

If Florida doesn't win @ky, it's looking pretty likely they'll be heading to a UCF subregional. With someone like Miami as a 3rd seed. And Mary might want to take that over the potential subregional visitors they'd get if they did host (likely FSU and a feistier fly-in)

Even if they lose 1 more - their average RPI is 15.3 and they finish with a Top 16 RPI 76% of the time.  Pablo doesn't like their chances of finishing with 0 or 1 more loss.  This has ~ a 22% chance of happening. 

[c4ndlelight]

Oct 29, 2018 18:12:28 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Purdue has remaining matches at Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois and home against Nebraska. If they go 4-4 in their final 8 mathces - their average RPI is 15.8. They have a 63% chance of finishing in the top 16 and 83% chance of finishing in the top 17.

But then they'd have 1 win over the Top 25 and only 3 over Top 50 (Louisville, Notre Dame). I don't think that's enough for a seed. Michigan will have a similarly thin resume and will have H2H. I could easily see Creighton, UNI, Oregon, maybe even Florida jumping them in line for a seed. They wouldn't even be convenient geographically at that point, with Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, Pitt, Penn St., Wisky, Minny, Creighton/UNI, Nebraska all hosting. Of course, they do have a chance to win one of those 4 and better their resume.

[bluepenquin]

If 8-4 Oregon wins 6 of their remaining 8 matches their average RPI is 16.3 and a 53% chance of finishing in the top 16. 73% chance of finishing in the top 17.

They have Stanford, Cal, Washington, and Oregon State on the road and USC, UCLA, Utah, and Colorado at home.

54 times Purdue finishes 12-8 and Oregon finishes 14-6. Purdue finishes with the better RPI 41 (77%) times.

57 times Florida finishes 16-2 and Oregon finishes 14-6. Florida finishes with the better RPI 40 (70%) times.

[c4ndlelight]

Oct 29, 2018 18:30:50 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

If 8-4 Oregon wins 6 of their remaining 8 matches their average RPI is 16.3 and a 53% chance of finishing in the top 16. 73% chance of finishing in the top 17.

They have Stanford, Cal, Washington, and Oregon State on the road and USC, UCLA, Utah, and Colorado at home.

54 times Purdue finishes 12-8 and Oregon finishes 14-6. Purdue finishes with the better RPI 41 (77%) times.

57 times Florida finishes 16-2 and Oregon finishes 14-6. Florida finishes with the better RPI 40 (70%) times.

Purdue does not want to be RPI 16 with only 1 Top 25 win.

[bluepenquin]

Oct 29, 2018 18:19:56 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Oct 29, 2018 18:12:28 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Purdue has remaining matches at Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois and home against Nebraska. If they go 4-4 in their final 8 mathces - their average RPI is 15.8. They have a 63% chance of finishing in the top 16 and 83% chance of finishing in the top 17.

But then they'd have 1 win over the Top 25 and only 3 over Top 50 (Louisville, Notre Dame). I don't think that's enough for a seed. Michigan will have a similarly thin resume and will have H2H. I could easily see Creighton, UNI, Oregon, maybe even Florida jumping them in line for a seed. They wouldn't even be convenient geographically at that point, with Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, Pitt, Penn St., Wisky, Minny, Creighton/UNI, Nebraska all hosting. Of course, they do have a chance to win one of those 4 and better their resume.

It is kind of weird how Purdue and Michigan may end up with lessor quality wins than UCF, UNI, Marquette, Creighton despite similar RPIs.  The Big Ten has no easy T25 teams and there no T50.

[c4ndlelight]

Oct 29, 2018 18:36:47 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Oct 29, 2018 18:19:56 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

But then they'd have 1 win over the Top 25 and only 3 over Top 50 (Louisville, Notre Dame). I don't think that's enough for a seed. Michigan will have a similarly thin resume and will have H2H. I could easily see Creighton, UNI, Oregon, maybe even Florida jumping them in line for a seed. They wouldn't even be convenient geographically at that point, with Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, Pitt, Penn St., Wisky, Minny, Creighton/UNI, Nebraska all hosting. Of course, they do have a chance to win one of those 4 and better their resume.

It is kind of weird how Purdue and Michigan may end up with lessor quality wins than UCF, UNI, Marquette, Creighton despite similar RPIs.  The Big Ten has no easy T25 teams and there no T50.

Purdue and Michigan only have 9 matches against upper half Big Ten teams this year. Because the bottom 7 are that much weaker this year, the majority of their conference schedule is going to be against non-tourney teams (barring an unprobable run from a cellar-dwellar). It's not as tough of a grind this year as people are assuming it is.