|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Oct 29, 2018 18:55:02 GMT -5
It is kind of weird how Purdue and Michigan may end up with lessor quality wins than UCF, UNI, Marquette, Creighton despite similar RPIs. The Big Ten has no easy T25 teams and there no T50. Purdue and Michigan only have 9 matches against upper half Big Ten teams this year. Because the bottom 7 are that much weaker this year, the majority of their conference schedule is going to be against non-tourney teams (barring an unprobable run from a cellar-dwellar). It's not as tough of a grind this year as people are assuming it is. As a Purdue fan, I'd feel a LOT better with one additional upset win. Heck, I'd even trade that upset win for a loss against one of the other expected wins (except Iowa - a loss to Iowa is never acceptable). OK, BP, what happens with Purdue in the simulations if they go 4-4, but one of those wins is against the top 4 and one of the losses is against the other 4? Still at RPI 15, but now with an additional top 25 win? Or does the bonus help the RPI?
|
|
|
Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 29, 2018 19:17:59 GMT -5
Purdue and Michigan only have 9 matches against upper half Big Ten teams this year. Because the bottom 7 are that much weaker this year, the majority of their conference schedule is going to be against non-tourney teams (barring an unprobable run from a cellar-dwellar). It's not as tough of a grind this year as people are assuming it is. As a Purdue fan, I'd feel a LOT better with one additional upset win. Heck, I'd even trade that upset win for a loss against one of the other expected wins (except Iowa - a loss to Iowa is never acceptable). OK, BP, what happens with Purdue in the simulations if they go 4-4, but one of those wins is against the top 4 and one of the losses is against the other 4? Still at RPI 15, but now with an additional top 25 win? Or does the bonus help the RPI? Yes, I think the 4-4 with one upset win and one upset loss would be much better for them (and help drag another Big Ten team into bubble range if that upsetting team could string one or two more together) and position them decently.
|
|
|
Post by jaypak on Oct 29, 2018 19:26:56 GMT -5
Trust the numbers in this case. A win over a Marquette, UNI, UCF, etc, is a better win than a win over a bottom-7 B1G team, this year.
Teams like Purdue or Michigan have two routes to a seed... 1) Beat some elite teams OOC. Sure helped Illinois, USC, Kentucky, etc. Takes off the pressure to spring upsets in conference. (Especially if the unbalanced B1G schedule gives you more games against the lesser B1G teams.) 2) Upset some of the elite teams in conference. You have so many chances for elite wins, and only need to capitalize on one or two of them.
A team that does neither of the two things above probably doesn’t deserve a seed over a team that tries to schedules tough OOC and wins some over elite opponents.
|
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
|
Post by bluepenquin on Oct 29, 2018 22:02:38 GMT -5
Purdue and Michigan only have 9 matches against upper half Big Ten teams this year. Because the bottom 7 are that much weaker this year, the majority of their conference schedule is going to be against non-tourney teams (barring an unprobable run from a cellar-dwellar). It's not as tough of a grind this year as people are assuming it is. As a Purdue fan, I'd feel a LOT better with one additional upset win. Heck, I'd even trade that upset win for a loss against one of the other expected wins (except Iowa - a loss to Iowa is never acceptable). OK, BP, what happens with Purdue in the simulations if they go 4-4, but one of those wins is against the top 4 and one of the losses is against the other 4? Still at RPI 15, but now with an additional top 25 win? Or does the bonus help the RPI? Unfortunately I don't capture this kind of detail when doing the simulations. So I will have to look at this different ways. There is no doubt that winning against one of the good teams at the expense of losing to a lessor team would be helpful in terms of RPI (plus quality wins). RPI Futures has Purdue at #17 while winning 11.45 matches in conference. The impact of a T25 bonus points on average is worth about 1 place in the standings. RPI Futures has Purdue getting .66 wins against those top 4 teams - along with .66 of the bonus points. The extra half win plus the full bonus points for the T25 win would move Purdue to #16 and close to #14. In doing the simulations - 25% of the time that Purdue went 12-8 they finished with an RPI 14 or better. I suspect that a good portion of these were where Purdue got an upset win and an upset loss. One thing that I have learned from doing the simulations - it is never as simple (this far out) as saying if we win these games we will finish with this RPI. There are so many small things that can move in the extreme a long ways from the RPI Futures rank. It is still valuable to know the RPI Futures rank - and for Purdue with an upset win against Nebraska and an upset loss at Indiana produces an RPI Future of #16 and #17 if the favorite wins each match in the Purdue matches.
|
|
|
Post by pavsec5row10 on Oct 29, 2018 22:08:24 GMT -5
46. (75) Miami-FL - Atlantic Coast .5843 (16-9) - 47
What propelled Miami up 29 spots in the weekly futures? Beating Florida State doesn't seem that worthy of such a large jump.
|
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
|
Post by bluepenquin on Oct 30, 2018 6:06:34 GMT -5
46. (75) Miami-FL - Atlantic Coast .5843 (16-9) - 47
What propelled Miami up 29 spots in the weekly futures? Beating Florida State doesn't seem that worthy of such a large jump. Beating Florida State & Virginia Tech increased their projected wins by 1. Plus improved Pablo rating increased their projected wins over the final 6 matches by another .38 wins. This improved their RPI points from w/l% by .0139 Duke beating Pittsburgh and moving into the Top 50 added .0013 in bonus points along with .0005 for projected win probability of beating Duke later this year. Increased Pablo added fraction bonus points against Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Notre Dame of a net .0007 pickup. So a .0035 improvement from bonus points. Finally, Florida Atlantic moved from #81 in unadjusted RPI to #75 and Florida Gulf Coast moved from #78 to #71. Both of these teams moving from outside the top 75 to inside the top 75 gave Miami the scheduling bonus and .0026 points. Miami's gains were based on 70% on improved w/l%. 17% on T25/50 bonus points. 13% on scheduling bonus points.
|
|
|
Post by Millennium on Oct 30, 2018 6:36:54 GMT -5
You know what would be cool? To see the RPI Futures in categories by conference, the way Pelagius does it in the weekly RPI thread.
|
|
|
Post by pavsec5row10 on Oct 30, 2018 9:28:13 GMT -5
What propelled Miami up 29 spots in the weekly futures? Beating Florida State doesn't seem that worthy of such a large jump. Beating Florida State & Virginia Tech increased their projected wins by 1. Plus improved Pablo rating increased their projected wins over the final 6 matches by another .38 wins. This improved their RPI points from w/l% by .0139 Duke beating Pittsburgh and moving into the Top 50 added .0013 in bonus points along with .0005 for projected win probability of beating Duke later this year. Increased Pablo added fraction bonus points against Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Notre Dame of a net .0007 pickup. So a .0035 improvement from bonus points. Finally, Florida Atlantic moved from #81 in unadjusted RPI to #75 and Florida Gulf Coast moved from #78 to #71. Both of these teams moving from outside the top 75 to inside the top 75 gave Miami the scheduling bonus and .0026 points. Miami's gains were based on 70% on improved w/l%. 17% on T25/50 bonus points. 13% on scheduling bonus points. Thanks for the look under the RPI covers. I had thought Duke had something to do with it, but had forgot about the top 75 bonus, which I find one of the most egregious issues with RPI in general.
|
|
|
Post by spikerthemovie on Oct 30, 2018 11:10:34 GMT -5
What propelled Miami up 29 spots in the weekly futures? Beating Florida State doesn't seem that worthy of such a large jump. Beating Florida State & Virginia Tech increased their projected wins by 1. Plus improved Pablo rating increased their projected wins over the final 6 matches by another .38 wins. This improved their RPI points from w/l% by .0139 Duke beating Pittsburgh and moving into the Top 50 added .0013 in bonus points along with .0005 for projected win probability of beating Duke later this year. Increased Pablo added fraction bonus points against Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Notre Dame of a net .0007 pickup. So a .0035 improvement from bonus points. Finally, Florida Atlantic moved from #81 in unadjusted RPI to #75 and Florida Gulf Coast moved from #78 to #71. Both of these teams moving from outside the top 75 to inside the top 75 gave Miami the scheduling bonus and .0026 points. Miami's gains were based on 70% on improved w/l%. 17% on T25/50 bonus points. 13% on scheduling bonus points. You are amazing, bluepenquin.
|
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
|
Post by bluepenquin on Oct 30, 2018 15:32:45 GMT -5
By Conference
114. America East - Stony Brook 188. America East - Albany 209. America East - New Hampshire 276. America East - UMBC 295. America East - Hartford 309. America East - Binghamton 326. America East - UMass-Lowell
11. American Athletic - UCF 21. American Athletic - Cincinnati 49. American Athletic - Wichita State 69. American Athletic - Tulsa 74. American Athletic - Tulane 103. American Athletic - USF 130. American Athletic - SMU 145. American Athletic - Houston 158. American Athletic - UConn 173. American Athletic - Memphis 175. American Athletic - Temple 177. American Athletic - East Carolina
33. Atlantic 10 - Dayton 56. Atlantic 10 - VCU 166. Atlantic 10 - La Salle 170. Atlantic 10 - Davidson 223. Atlantic 10 - Saint Louis 226. Atlantic 10 - Duquesne 234. Atlantic 10 - George Mason 253. Atlantic 10 - George Washington 261. Atlantic 10 - Fordham 271. Atlantic 10 - Rhode Island
7. Atlantic Coast - Pittsburgh 30. Atlantic Coast - Florida State 32. Atlantic Coast - Louisville 38. Atlantic Coast - Syracuse 39. Atlantic Coast - Duke 45. Atlantic Coast - Notre Dame 46. Atlantic Coast - Miami-FL 95. Atlantic Coast - Georgia Tech 111. Atlantic Coast - Clemson 113. Atlantic Coast - NC State 134. Atlantic Coast - Virginia Tech 179. Atlantic Coast - Boston College 190. Atlantic Coast - North Carolina 213. Atlantic Coast - Virginia 217. Atlantic Coast - Wake Forest
73. Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast 76. Atlantic Sun - Kennesaw State 118. Atlantic Sun - Lipscomb 184. Atlantic Sun - Stetson 187. Atlantic Sun - Liberty 265. Atlantic Sun - UNF 297. Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville 313. Atlantic Sun - North Alabama 327. Atlantic Sun - NJIT
5. Big 12 - Texas 22. Big 12 - Baylor 36. Big 12 - Kansas 50. Big 12 - Texas Tech 64. Big 12 - Kansas State 66. Big 12 - Iowa State 78. Big 12 - Oklahoma 85. Big 12 - TCU 133. Big 12 - West Virginia
16. Big East - Creighton 19. Big East - Marquette 107. Big East - St. Johns 121. Big East - Villanova 163. Big East - Georgetown 176. Big East - Xavier 193. Big East - Butler 203. Big East - Seton Hall 262. Big East - Providence 263. Big East - DePaul
128. Big Sky - Northern Colorado 129. Big Sky - Northern Arizona 131. Big Sky - Weber State 140. Big Sky - Idaho 164. Big Sky - Sacramento State 205. Big Sky - Idaho State 232. Big Sky - Montana State 275. Big Sky - Montana 289. Big Sky - Southern Utah 293. Big Sky - Portland State 301. Big Sky - Eastern Washington
58. Big South - High Point 99. Big South - Radford 186. Big South - Winthrop 227. Big South - Campbell 239. Big South - UNC Asheville 243. Big South - Charleston Southern 259. Big South - Presbyterian 284. Big South - South Carolina Upstate 302. Big South - Hampton 308. Big South - Gardner-Webb
3. Big Ten - Illinois 4. Big Ten - Minnesota 6. Big Ten - Wisconsin 12. Big Ten - Nebraska 13. Big Ten - Penn State 14. Big Ten - Michigan 17. Big Ten - Purdue 67. Big Ten - Northwestern 70. Big Ten - Indiana 75. Big Ten - Ohio State 81. Big Ten - Iowa 87. Big Ten - Maryland 90. Big Ten - Michigan State 207. Big Ten - Rutgers
23. Big West - Cal Poly 53. Big West - Hawaii 54. Big West - UC Irvine 94. Big West - UCSB 109. Big West - UC Davis 142. Big West - Long Beach State 199. Big West - Cal State Northridge 255. Big West - UC Riverside 300. Big West - Cal State Fullerton
47. Colonial - James Madison 68. Colonial - College of Charleston 80. Colonial - Hofstra 104. Colonial - UNCW 152. Colonial - Towson 156. Colonial - Northeastern 208. Colonial - Delaware 221. Colonial - Elon 278. Colonial - William & Mary
26. Conference USA - Rice 62. Conference USA - Western Kentucky 77. Conference USA - UTSA 79. Conference USA - Florida Atlantic 144. Conference USA - Florida International 153. Conference USA - North Texas 154. Conference USA - Southern Miss 160. Conference USA - Charlotte 162. Conference USA - UAB 212. Conference USA - Marshall 254. Conference USA - UTEP 281. Conference USA - Middle Tennessee 305. Conference USA - Louisiana Tech
110. Horizon - Cleveland State 146. Horizon - Green Bay 149. Horizon - Northern Kentucky 151. Horizon - Illinois-Chicago 206. Horizon - Oakland 211. Horizon - Wright State 264. Horizon - Milwaukee 291. Horizon - IUPUI 298. Horizon - Youngstown State
57. Ivy - Yale 63. Ivy - Princeton 136. Ivy - Cornell 150. Ivy - Harvard 220. Ivy - Dartmouth 222. Ivy - Columbia 251. Ivy - Brown 282. Ivy - Penn
171. Metro Atlantic - Iona 235. Metro Atlantic - Canisius 252. Metro Atlantic - Fairfield 260. Metro Atlantic - Marist 268. Metro Atlantic - Rider 304. Metro Atlantic - Niagara 306. Metro Atlantic - Quinnipiac 323. Metro Atlantic - Saint Peters 324. Metro Atlantic - Manhattan College 328. Metro Atlantic - Siena
61. Mid-American - Miami-OH 93. Mid-American - Ball State 117. Mid-American - Bowling Green 123. Mid-American - Buffalo 172. Mid-American - Ohio 182. Mid-American - Western Michigan 183. Mid-American - Eastern Michigan 229. Mid-American - Northern Illinois 231. Mid-American - Akron 238. Mid-American - Kent State 250. Mid-American - Toledo 273. Mid-American - Central Michigan
159. Mid-Eastern - Howard 270. Mid-Eastern - Bethune-Cookman 272. Mid-Eastern - Florida A&M 279. Mid-Eastern - Morgan State 287. Mid-Eastern - Maryland Eastern Shore 303. Mid-Eastern - North Carolina A&T 319. Mid-Eastern - Coppin State 321. Mid-Eastern - North Carolina Central 330. Mid-Eastern - Norfolk State 332. Mid-Eastern - Savannah State 334. Mid-Eastern - Delaware State 336. Mid-Eastern - South Carolina State
15. Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa 27. Missouri Valley - Illinois State 55. Missouri Valley - Valparaiso 105. Missouri Valley - Bradley 116. Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago 119. Missouri Valley - Missouri State 124. Missouri Valley - Drake 198. Missouri Valley - Indiana State 240. Missouri Valley - Evansville 244. Missouri Valley - Southern Illinois
40. Mountain West - Colorado State 83. Mountain West - Fresno State 84. Mountain West - Wyoming 127. Mountain West - UNLV 139. Mountain West - Boise State 147. Mountain West - New Mexico 161. Mountain West - Air Force 168. Mountain West - San Jose State 210. Mountain West - San Diego State 230. Mountain West - Nevada 241. Mountain West - Utah State
169. Northeast - LIU Brooklyn 196. Northeast - Bryant 219. Northeast - Central Connecticut State 242. Northeast - Sacred Heart 285. Northeast - Robert Morris 288. Northeast - St. Francis-PA 311. Northeast - St. Francis-Brooklyn 333. Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson
60. Ohio Valley - Austin Peay 138. Ohio Valley - Murray State 178. Ohio Valley - Morehead State 194. Ohio Valley - UT Martin 215. Ohio Valley - Southeast Missouri 228. Ohio Valley - Jacksonville State 258. Ohio Valley - SIUE 266. Ohio Valley - Eastern Illinois 286. Ohio Valley - Tennessee State 292. Ohio Valley - Belmont 294. Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky 307. Ohio Valley - Tennessee Tech
1. Pac 12 - Stanford 8. Pac 12 - USC 10. Pac 12 - Washington State 18. Pac 12 - Oregon 28. Pac 12 - Washington 31. Pac 12 - UCLA 42. Pac 12 - Utah 48. Pac 12 - Arizona 71. Pac 12 - Colorado 86. Pac 12 - Arizona State 98. Pac 12 - Cal 141. Pac 12 - Oregon State
89. Patriot - American 97. Patriot - Navy 155. Patriot - Colgate 181. Patriot - Lehigh 216. Patriot - Army 224. Patriot - Loyola University Maryland 280. Patriot - Holy Cross 316. Patriot - Bucknell 320. Patriot - Lafayette
9. Southeastern - Kentucky 20. Southeastern - Florida 25. Southeastern - Missouri 34. Southeastern - Tennessee 35. Southeastern - South Carolina 52. Southeastern - Alabama 88. Southeastern - Georgia 91. Southeastern - Texas A&M 92. Southeastern - Auburn 102. Southeastern - Arkansas 108. Southeastern - Ole Miss 112. Southeastern - LSU 247. Southeastern - Mississippi State
29. Southern - East Tennessee State 132. Southern - Samford 148. Southern - Wofford 185. Southern - Furman 204. Southern - Mercer 214. Southern - Western Carolina 225. Southern - UNC Greensboro 236. Southern - Chattanooga 267. Southern - The Citadel
43. Southland - Stephen F. Austin 115. Southland - Central Arkansas 137. Southland - Sam Houston State 174. Southland - Abilene Christian 195. Southland - Northwestern State 202. Southland - Houston Baptist 233. Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 248. Southland - McNeese State 249. Southland - New Orleans 277. Southland - Incarnate Word 299. Southland - Lamar 310. Southland - Nicholls State 318. Southland - Southeastern Louisiana
269. Southwestern Athletic - Alabama A&M 274. Southwestern Athletic - Alabama State 312. Southwestern Athletic - Arkansas-Pine Bluff 315. Southwestern Athletic - Texas Southern 317. Southwestern Athletic - Jackson State 322. Southwestern Athletic - Southern 325. Southwestern Athletic - Grambling State 329. Southwestern Athletic - Prairie View A&M 331. Southwestern Athletic - Alcorn State 335. Southwestern Athletic - Mississippi Valley State
24. Sun Belt - Texas State 101. Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock 106. Sun Belt - Appalachian State 120. Sun Belt - Coastal Carolina 126. Sun Belt - Arkansas State 143. Sun Belt - UT Arlington 167. Sun Belt - Louisiana-Lafayette 189. Sun Belt - South Alabama 237. Sun Belt - Troy University 257. Sun Belt - Louisiana-Monroe 283. Sun Belt - Georgia State 296. Sun Belt - Georgia Southern
41. The Summit - Denver 125. The Summit - South Dakota 157. The Summit - Omaha 197. The Summit - North Dakota 200. The Summit - Fort Wayne 245. The Summit - North Dakota State 246. The Summit - Oral Roberts 290. The Summit - South Dakota State 314. The Summit - Western Illinois
2. West Coast - BYU 37. West Coast - Saint Marys 44. West Coast - Pepperdine 51. West Coast - San Diego 59. West Coast - Loyola Marymount 65. West Coast - Portland 165. West Coast - Pacific 180. West Coast - Gonzaga 191. West Coast - San Francisco 218. West Coast - Santa Clara
72. Western Athletic - New Mexico State 82. Western Athletic - UT Rio Grande Valley 96. Western Athletic - UMKC 100. Western Athletic - California Baptist 122. Western Athletic - Utah Valley 135. Western Athletic - CSU Bakersfield 192. Western Athletic - Grand Canyon 201. Western Athletic - Seattle 256. Western Athletic - Chicago State
|
|
|
Post by badgerbreath on Oct 30, 2018 16:11:31 GMT -5
Whoa. The B1G is insane wrt RPI.
|
|
|
Post by Cruz'n on Oct 30, 2018 16:23:47 GMT -5
Whoa. The B1G is insane wrt RPI. B1G average RPI 52.3 PAC average RPI 48.5
|
|
|
Post by tomclen on Oct 30, 2018 16:38:09 GMT -5
Whoa. The B1G is insane wrt RPI. B1G average RPI 52.3 PAC average RPI 48.5 The Rutgers 'drag' makes that B1G average rank somewhat unfair. Stats rules say to discount any team whose RPI rank equals or is higher than their average attendance.
|
|
|
Post by Cruz'n on Oct 30, 2018 16:48:50 GMT -5
B1G average RPI 52.3 PAC average RPI 48.5 The Rutgers 'drag' makes that B1G average rank somewhat unfair. Stats rules say to discount any team whose RPI rank equals or is higher than their average attendance. Oregon State is not as bad as Rutgers, but not that far off. What is crazy, is that I had OSU in my top 25 on September 17. They had just beaten San Diego. They got their record to 10-2, then packed it in for the year. What happened?
|
|
|
Post by badgerbreath on Oct 30, 2018 17:03:30 GMT -5
Whoa. The B1G is insane wrt RPI. B1G average RPI 52.3 PAC average RPI 48.5 Wasn't talking about average, but 7 in top 20.
|
|