Post by trojansc on Nov 19, 2018 16:29:39 GMT -5
2018 Bracketology (11/23)
NCAA Selection Show - Sunday Nov. 25, 2018 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU
Missouri Valley, WAC, Big Sky, Big East tournaments will be held THIS week
Final update and Final projections will be in Saturday night (11/24)
RPI numbers in parentheses (00) are from Monday, November 19 using Official NCAA RPI
6-year history of Bracketology:
Missed on only FOUR at-large bids (details in bottom of this post)
Missed on eight seeded-teams
64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference
Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams
Bold teams are LOCKS to the NCAA Tournament
Atlantic 10 - Dayton
AAC - UCF || At-Large: Cincinnati
ACC - Pittsburgh || At-Large: Florida State, Syracuse, Louisville, Duke
America East - Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast
Big East - Creighton || At-Large: Marquette
Big Ten - Minnesota || At-Large: Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, Purdue, Nebraska
Big 12 - Texas || At-Large: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State
Big Sky - Idaho
Big South - High Point
Big West - Cal Poly
Colonial - Hofstra
Conference USA - Rice
Horizon - Green Bay
Ivy League- Yale
Metro Atlantic - Iona
Mid-American - Eastern Michigan
Mid-Eastern - Howard
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa || At-Large: Illinois State
Mountain West - Colorado State
Northeast - Bryant
Ohio Valley- Murray State
Pacific-12- Stanford || At-Large: Southern California, Washington State, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Utah, Colorado
Patriot - Navy
Southeastern - Kentucky || At-Large: Florida, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee
Southland - Stephen F. Austin
Southern - Samford || At-Large: East Tennessee State
Summit - South Dakota
Sun Belt - Texas State
Southwestern - Alabama State
Western Athletic- New Mexico State
West Coast- BYU || At-Large: Pepperdine, Saint Mary's, San Diego, Loyola Marymount
Four before the last 4 in: Colorado, Duke, Kansas, Arizona
Last 4 in: Loyola Marymount, San Diego, Kansas State, Saint Mary's
First 4 out: Denver, Hawaii, Maryland, Iowa State
Next 4 out: Princeton, James Madison, Notre Dame, Western Kentucky
***UCLA is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament***
Projected Top 16 seeds
1 Stanford
2 Minnesota
3 BYU
4 Illinois
5 Texas
6 Wisconsin
7 Penn State
8 Nebraska
9 Southern California
10 Kentucky
11 Pittsburgh
12 UCF
13 Creighton
14 Oregon
15 Washington State
16 Baylor
Outside looking in:
Marquette
Florida
Purdue
Michigan
Northern Iowa
Details on the Last Teams IN/ Last Teams OUT (11/19)
*UCLA* (35) has eligibility issues. UCLA must beat Colorado or Southern California. If they win one, they are in the tournament. If they lose both, they are out.
Pepperdine (37) - Really hard for me to see Pepperdine not making the tournament. They only have one match remaining with San Diego, and they should be safe in RPI distance of the other bubble teams even with a loss to San Diego. Pepperdine has two wins over Saint Mary's and one over Hawaii. They aren't the most impressive - but given their RPI and not a lot of bubble teams have multiple top 50 wins, Pepperdine is in.
Saint Mary's (42) - Saint Mary's just needs to take care of Santa Clara this week and they are in the tournament. Santa Clara has won just one conference game, so that is very unlikely. But it is a rivalry match nonetheless! Saint Mary's three T50 wins of Utah, San Diego(x2) will be good enough to get the tournament. Even with a loss, I think Saint Mary's would still make the tournament, but they wouldn't want to risk that.
Utah (40) - The Utes have BIG wins that nobody (besides Arizona and Colorado) can match. Utah has three top 25 wins (Washington(x2) and Oregon). I think that Utah can probably afford to lose both matches this week to USC and Colorado. They are pretty safe with their victories. Of course they don't want to lose both, but the Utes should be dancing no matter what.
Arizona (41) - Arizona has SIX top 50 wins. Going 1-1 this week against California and Arizona State is good enough to get them into the tournament. Arizona is fortunate, because they really did not schedule well. Two top-25 wins against Washington State and Oregon help their case. If Arizona goes 0-2 this week -- they are probably out. I'm not sure their RPI would be able to survive that hit, but they would still be in on the discussion I imagine.
Duke (48) - I like Duke's case because they have two top 25 wins (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. They are their only two T50 wins -- but they are pretty big. I think as long as Duke beats Miami-FL or Notre Dame, they'll be okay. Losing both and they will probably be out as their RPI probably wouldn't cut it. They are the only team to beat Pittsburgh -- that also leads me to think they'll get some love from the committee. If they win both they are absolutely in, no doubt about it.
Colorado (46) - Colorado picked up two huge road wins -- surviving the Oregon schools. That puts them into the tournament, but they aren't exactly safe. Colorado should punch their tournament bid if they win just one this week against UCLA or Utah. Losing both puts them in trouble with their RPI. I think Colorado makes it into the tournament.
San Diego (47) - San Diego has wins over Baylor, Tennessee, and Pepperdine. San Diego has only one match remaining against Pepperdine. I think San Diego makes the tournament even with a loss to Pepperdine - but that would put them as one of the last bids in, so they don't want to cut it that close. San Diego beating Pepperdine(again) absolutely puts them into the tournament. Tennessee is really close to T25 - so that would really help USD's case as well. All in all - I don't think San Diego should panic too much. They would be safely in had they not lost to San Diego State - but they have improved all season and I think they are a deserving tournament team.
Denver (43) - This is where things really start to get dicey. I don't know what to do with Denver, Hawaii, and Kansas State. Denver (27-2) has the "High Point" advantage with RPI. They are low 40's in RPI with a T50 win, is that good enough? I've seen resume's similar to this be LEFT OUT of the tournament before, and particularly hurting Denver's case is their awful S.O.S. I have Denver as the last team in the NCAA Tournament right now, only because of their RPI really. One win against Saint Mary's shouldn't be good enough to make the tournament. Interestingly, Denver can match Hawaii's other T100 wins (UCSB and UC Irvine). With a better RPI as well, the only Hawaiian advantage is that Cal Poly is a better win than Denver's over Saint Mary's. Now when it comes to Kansas State, it is a matter of how many spots the committee is willing to have them jump in over Denver.
Kansas State (52) - Kansas State is a tough case. They've been really poor in the inconsistent Big 12. Kansas State is only here because they managed to come back from a 0-2 deficit against Kansas. That saved their tournament chances. Had they beat Texas Tech, they would have surely been in the tournament. Now, they need to beat TCU to make the tournament. If Kansas State beats TCU, I think they should be in. They have FIVE top 50 wins. That's a lot -- only the PAC bubble teams can match that. I can't get past Kansas State winning TWICE at Hawaii, both sweeps. If it comes down to an argument between K-State and Hawaii, I'm not sure how you put Hawaii in, unless the distance in RPI is so significant. We'll have to see the final numbers play out. Right now, I have Kansas State out because I'm not sure they are going to beat TCU. It is a tough match in Fort Worth and McCall is back.
Hawaii (50) - The Wahine are just barely out. They need some things to go their way for me to see them getting into the tournament. The issue is they just don't have enough RPI distance right now. If they were lower 40's, I would feel much more confident in putting them in the tournament. Having only one top 50 win (even though it is T25), is not exactly where you want to be on the bubble when your RPI is in the 45-50 range. I can see Hawaii getting in if some scenarios happen: K-State loses to TCU, Duke loses both, Arizona/Colorado lose both, Saint Mary's loses to Santa Clara, San Diego loses to Pepperdine, and UCLA become ineligible for the tournament.The important thing about those scenarios is that Hawaii would jump some of them in RPI. That would be crucial. Even if those teams are still considered NCAA at-large teams, it could give Hawaii enough space between them and someone else to where the committee wouldn't jump that many spots in RPI, and put Hawaii in. It's a long week of watching, waiting, and rooting for other teams for Hawaii.
Princeton (49) - Princeton is in a similar situation to Hawaii. They could really benefit if Maryland finishes T50, but Maryland finishing T50 could mean that the Terrapins take another at-large spot, which might not leave room for Princeton. I'm kind of stumped with the Princeton situation. if they finish with 3 TOP 50 wins, how does that compare to a team with just 1 Top 25 win? It's very rare territory that we have an Ivy League team competing for an at-large berth. Princeton for sure has two Top 50 wins in Stephen F. Austin and Yale. Northwestern will not be a top 50 win, but Maryland could. I think amidst chaos, Princeton could squeeze in but I'm not sure of their RPI numbers. They need their opponents to do better than projected this week to really have the best chance.
Maryland (53) - Maryland is by no means out of it. They absolutely have to beat Iowa to have any chance. If they beat both Iowa and Nebraska -- they are definitely in. I don't think one win against Michigan is going to get it done for a tournament bid, but it gets them in on the discussion. If they go 1-1 this week, I think that's good enough to put them as just barely out. Amidst chaos again however, we could see them get in. It will be interesting to look at their final resume compared to Hawaii. It looks like Hawaii will have the better RPI, and that could be the decider if it came down to these two.
Notre Dame (54) - Notre Dame is right outside the tournament right now -- thanks to their big win against Louisville. Notre Dame absolutely has to beat Duke to have a chance at the tournament. They won't finish with any T25 wins, but will potentially have three T50 wins with a win over Duke. That could be good enough to get them in. Right now, I am leaning towards them being out in most realistic scenarios. They have to play at Duke, who is also playing for their tournament life. They lost at home 2-3 to Duke in the prior meeting. I don't think Notre Dame gets enough RPI push even if they beat Duke, but it's their only chance. They need bubble chaos to occur and squeeze into the best potential RPI ranking they could get.
Indiana (57) - Indiana is still alive. I have kept a close eye on them because of their TWO top 25 wins -- Michigan and Cincinnati. Both of those teams will likely finish T25 -- giving Indiana major resume boosters. Indiana has to win both this weekend, and if they do, I think they are in. Beating Northwestern and losing to Purdue won't be good enough to get them in. Beating Purdue is alot easier than it looks on paper. Purdue has looked vulnerable and has an inflated RPI. Now, if Indiana pulls it off and wins both this week, that would put their RPI Top 50 and that would give a benefit to Maryland, who SWEPT them AT Indiana. I wouldn't be surprised if Indiana plays their way into the tournament this week.
James Madison (55) - James Madison did not dominate as well in the Colonial Athletic as I expected, and thus they are now on the wrong side of the bubble. They lost twice to Hofstra and once to Towson and UNC Wilmington. That's not good enough to make the tournament given they only have one T50 victory over Missouri. Had they lost even one less CAA game - they would probably be on the just in or just out line. I don't see the CAA getting two bids this season, College of Charleston had a better profile and RPI last year than JMU does this year. Still, they are close enough to be in on the discussion, and if bubble chaos does occur, I wonder where exactly their RPI finishes. They are just barely breathing, but not for sure out yet.
Western Kentucky (62) - The loss to Southern Mississippi really cut off hope for an at-large bid. Had that loss been in the Finals to Rice, or even in the semifinals, things could have been very different. WKU losing in the Quarterfinals of the C-USA tournament was shocking. They actually had a decent profile -- WKU beat Cincinnati and East Tennessee State. 1 Top 25, 2 Top 50 is not bad. But their RPI has now put them too far out of distance to have a realistic shot. WKU was a very inconsistent team this year, but had a lot of rebuilding to do after replacing arguably the best team they had in school history. They will be back next year.
-Bracketology History through the years:
2012: All at-larges predicted correctly. Had Hawaii and Tennessee as seeds, but Iowa State (15) and Kentucky (16) got them.
2013: All at-larges predicted correctly. Had Marquette and Florida State as seeds, but Wisconsin (12) and Illinois (13) got them.
2014: Had Virginia Tech in the tournament, but Michigan State got the bid. All predicted seeded teams did get a seed.
2015: Had Pittsburgh in the tournament, but Northern Iowa got the bid. Had Missouri as a seeded team, but Creighton (16) seeded.
2016: All at-larges predicted correctly. Had San Diego seeded, but Penn State (16) was seeded instead.
2017: Had Maryland and North Texas in the tournament, but High Point and LSU got at-large bids instead. Had Wisconsin (15) and Kansas (16) as seeds, but (15) BYU and (16) Wichita State got them intead.
2012: All at-larges predicted correctly. Had Hawaii and Tennessee as seeds, but Iowa State (15) and Kentucky (16) got them.
2013: All at-larges predicted correctly. Had Marquette and Florida State as seeds, but Wisconsin (12) and Illinois (13) got them.
2014: Had Virginia Tech in the tournament, but Michigan State got the bid. All predicted seeded teams did get a seed.
2015: Had Pittsburgh in the tournament, but Northern Iowa got the bid. Had Missouri as a seeded team, but Creighton (16) seeded.
2016: All at-larges predicted correctly. Had San Diego seeded, but Penn State (16) was seeded instead.
2017: Had Maryland and North Texas in the tournament, but High Point and LSU got at-large bids instead. Had Wisconsin (15) and Kansas (16) as seeds, but (15) BYU and (16) Wichita State got them intead.