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Post by volleyballplayer00 on Nov 26, 2019 8:05:38 GMT -5
Will texas get a top 4 seed? what do you think?
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Post by ugopher on Nov 26, 2019 8:15:30 GMT -5
If Wisconsin wins out, I feel they should have the #4 seed over Pittsburgh.
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Post by rainbowbadger on Nov 26, 2019 8:57:01 GMT -5
If Wisconsin wins out, I feel they should have the #4 seed over Pittsburgh. I was wondering about your logic here. RPI Futures has us at 2, behind Baylor, if we win out. Do you think we'll be punished that much for the Ohio State loss? Or will the allure of having Pitt be at home all the way to the championship be too great for the committee to pass up? ETA: I'm mostly just curious. I'm not one to over-inflate Wisconsin's resume or be too bullish on our prospects. I think my record's pretty clear on that.
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Post by Wiswell on Nov 26, 2019 9:02:06 GMT -5
Ohio State is now a bubble out. That was the killer loss I think. I also think the committee likes the idea of a newcomer (really, two if you count Baylor), and Pittsburgh has been supportive of NCAA sports lately.
It is crazy to think the Big Ten Champion wouldn't get a top 4 seed though.
I like the potential draw though, as predicted. I don't need to see Illinois or Marquette again. Happy to hold at a 5.
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Post by jayj79 on Nov 26, 2019 9:05:41 GMT -5
7 Nebraska (San Diego, Northern Iowa, Winthrop) would be an interesting coincidence if that happened, being that UNI is playing San Diego in the first round of the FCS football playoffs this Saturday (UNI and USD have never played each other in football before, but did play twice in volleyball in the early 1990s).
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Post by B1Gminnesotafan on Nov 26, 2019 9:24:06 GMT -5
I like it. Although, as a B1G 10 fan, I think Wisconsin and Pitt should flip. However, I don't think it will happen. NCAA has never put the top 4 B1G 10 teams in 4 different regionals. They always have had it so that one will have to beat the other to get to the final four.
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Post by jayj79 on Nov 26, 2019 9:39:10 GMT -5
when it comes to the one or two last-in at-large spots, I wouldn't mind seeing the committee giving preference to teams that have never made the tournament, or haven't made the tournament for a long time, over a bubble team that often makes the tournament. Let a new team and fanbase get some excitement. I'm not saying they have to reach way down the list to find a new team, but if such a team is on the bubble, I say let them in. (watch this come back and bite me, as a fan of a team that makes the tournament on a fairly regular basis)
That being said, the only team on either side of trojansc's that would fall into that category would be Wright State, who is already on the "in" side of the bubble
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 26, 2019 9:58:59 GMT -5
Michigan California Illinois Wright State South Carolina Washington State Milwaukee Green Bay --------------------------- South Dakota VCU Pepperdine Coastal Carolina Southern Methodist Arizona State Villanova Georgia Tech
Complete Predicted NCAA Tournament Bracket
1 Baylor (Texas State, UCLA, Alabama State) - 16 BYU (Utah, Wright State, American) 8 Minnesota (Southern California, South Carolina, Denver) - 9 Kentucky (Purdue, Northern Kentucky, SE Missouri State)
4 Pittsburgh (Cincinnati, Michigan, Howard) - 13 Marquette (Louisville, Illinois, Milwaukee) 5 Wisconsin (Notre Dame, Green Bay, Ball State) - 12 Hawaii (Western Kentucky, California, Samford)
3 Texas (Stephen F. Austin, Washington State, Fairfield) - 14 Penn State (Dayton, Towson, Sacred Heart) 6 Washington (Colorado State, Cal Poly, Northern Colorado) - 11 Florida (UCF, Florida State, Kennesaw State)
2 Stanford (UC Santa Barbara, Georgia, Albany) - 15 Texas A&M (Rice, Oklahoma, New Mexico State) 7 Nebraska (San Diego, Northern Iowa, Winthrop) - 10 Creighton (Missouri, Iowa State, Princeton) I bumped this up with my bracket I did yesterday (didn't post) and there is a Lot of similarites. I am going to go through some differences: I have South Dakota and Princeton in and you have Green Bay and Milwaukee. I conceed on South Dakota - and it isn't like they can eaily be compared to another team. Either the committee is going to look at the RPI ~ 41 and put them in or they are going to look at zero T50 wins and keep them out. Pepperdine may not have enough with a likely loss to BYU. So your projection makes a lot sense - just hard to imagine 4 Horizon teams in the tournmanet. I will say that I like Wright State's chances the best among the 3 potential at-large - and we agree on this. Seeds: I have Utah and you have BYU (both at #16). That will be interesting and could go either way (or neither). I do think that if Utah wins out, they will get their RPI much closer to #16 and it will be interesting if the committee will value the better wins from Utah or the H2H + Stanford win for BYU. As for Regional Seed - I have it with Wisconsin - 3, Texas - 4, and Pittsburgh - 5. I think it may be as simple as what happens in the Wisconsin at Penn State match where Pablo has this as a 50-50 match. Wisconsin probably drops to #5 with a loss and probably moves up to #2 or 3 with a win. Everythings else is the same - except for where games this week could really move the needle: Penn State - I have them at #9 if they win out with Minnesota dropping a bit. I have Marquette beating Creighton and both being seeded in the 13 and 14 spots. As for Subregionals - this is mostly a guess, but there are clearly some things we can predict and there is plenty of similarities in what we did. Interestingly, Wisconsin stands to gain a lot by having 4 Horizon teams. W/O the 4 in my bracket, I had to fly in a PAC team (USC) with Notre Dame. With the 4, it may easily become Notre Dame and one of those Horizon teams. I also had Baylor, Texas State, and a PAC team (Cal). Texas, Stephen F. Austin, and Washington State. Pittsburgh , Cincy, and Michigan. Penn State, Dayton, Towson. Florida, UCF, Florida State. Creighton, Missouri, Iowa State. Washington, Colorado State, Cal Poly. Stanford, UCSB, and I had Pepperdine, but w/o them it will be a fly-in. Texas A&M, Rice, Oklahoma (this is lock if TAM is a seed and Rice isn't). Utah/BYU or BYU/Utah is a lock if one gets a seed. Kentucky and Marquette is where the most choices occur (along with Hawaii). Kentucky could have Louisville, Western Kentucky, Purdue, Illinois (among others). I went with Western Kentucky and Illinois since I believe Kentucky and Purdue played this year and were possibly in the same subregional last year - I think the committee will try and avoid this if possible. It could just as easily be Louisville (and Illinois). For Marquette, I went with Purdue and Northern Kentucky. There are also many choices for Marquette. And that leaves the leftovers: Nebraska - I had them with UCLA and Northern Iowa - could just as easily be San Diego or USC. Minnesota - I had San Diego and South Dakota - could just as easily be UCLA or USC instead of San Diego. And Hawaii - I had Louisville and Georgia - but could be just about anyone: Louisville/Purdue/Western Kentucky (one of those teams is likey to have to fly, USC, UCLA, San Diego, Colorado State are all going to fly and are candidates for Hawaii.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Nov 26, 2019 10:30:48 GMT -5
2019 Bracketology (11/25)
NCAA Selection Show - Sunday Dec. 1st, 2018 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU Conference Tournaments this week: Big East, Big Sky, and Missouri Valley I will be continuously editing this post throughout the week Final Bracketology will be posted after all matches conclude and Selection RPI is calculated Accuracy: In the previous 7 years, I've missed on 6 at-large teams, and 8 seeded teams. So, about 1 at-large and 1-seed per year. Complete history in 2nd post of this thread. Who's in? 64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams teams with a * have clinched their conference AQ/Championship
Atlantic 10 - Dayton* AAC - UCF*|| At-Large: Cincinnati ACC - Pittsburgh* || At-Large: Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State America East - Albany* Atlantic Sun - Kennesaw State* Big East - Creighton || At-Large: Marquette Big Ten - Wisconsin || At-Large: Nebraska, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue, Michigan, Illinois Big 12 - Texas || At-Large: Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State Big Sky - Northern Colorado Big South - Winthrop* Big West - Hawaii* || At-Large: UCSB, Cal Poly Colonial - Towson* Conference USA - Western Kentucky* || At-Large: Rice Horizon - Northern Kentucky* || At-Large: Wright State, Green Bay, Milwaukee Ivy League - Princeton* Metro Atlantic - Fairfield* Mid-American - Ball State* Mid-Eastern - Howard* Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa Mountain West - Colorado State* Northeast - Sacred Heart* Ohio Valley- SE Missouri State* Pacific-12- Stanford || At-Large: Washington, Utah, Southern California, UCLA, California, Washington State Patriot - American* Southeastern - Kentucky || At-Large: Florida, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina Southland - Stephen F. Austin* Southern - Samford* Summit - Denver* Sun Belt - Texas State* Southwestern - Alabama State* Western Athletic- New Mexico State* West Coast - San Diego* || At-Large: BYU Four before the last 4 in: Wright State, California, Illinois, Michigan Last 4 in: South Carolina, Washington State, Milwaukee, Green Bay First 4 out: South Dakota, Virginia Commonwealth, Pepperdine, Coastal Carolina Next 4 out: Southern Methodist, Arizona State, Villlanova, Georgia Tech Bubble TeamsThese are the (16) teams that I consider on the bubble to the NCAA Tournament. There are exactly (8) spots for this grouping of teams. If your team is not listed here, but is listed above as an at-large bid, Congratulations! You are a lock to the NCAA Tournament. Once I have placed a team as a *lock* to the NCAA-Tournament, they have never missed it.
Michigan California Illinois Wright State South Carolina Washington State Milwaukee Green Bay --------------------------- South Dakota VCU Pepperdine Coastal Carolina Southern Methodist Arizona State Villanova Georgia Tech
Complete Predicted NCAA Tournament Bracket
1 Baylor (Texas State, UCLA, Alabama State) - 16 BYU (Utah, Wright State, American) 8 Minnesota (Southern California, South Carolina, Denver) - 9 Kentucky (Purdue, Northern Kentucky, SE Missouri State)
4 Pittsburgh (Cincinnati, Michigan, Howard) - 13 Marquette (Louisville, Illinois, Milwaukee) 5 Wisconsin (Notre Dame, Green Bay, Ball State) - 12 Hawaii (Western Kentucky, California, Samford)
3 Texas (Stephen F. Austin, Washington State, Fairfield) - 14 Penn State (Dayton, Towson, Sacred Heart) 6 Washington (Colorado State, Cal Poly, Northern Colorado) - 11 Florida (UCF, Florida State, Kennesaw State)
2 Stanford (UC Santa Barbara, Georgia, Albany) - 15 Texas A&M (Rice, Oklahoma, New Mexico State) 7 Nebraska (San Diego, Northern Iowa, Winthrop) - 10 Creighton (Missouri, Iowa State, Princeton) So basically Pepperdine has to beat BYU to get in
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Post by davebrake38 on Nov 26, 2019 10:46:28 GMT -5
Blue, You and Trojansc are amazing with the time and effort you put into this information. Thanks again. David
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 26, 2019 10:50:22 GMT -5
I like it. Although, as a B1G 10 fan, I think Wisconsin and Pitt should flip. However, I don't think it will happen. NCAA has never put the top 4 B1G 10 teams in 4 different regionals. They always have had it so that one will have to beat the other to get to the final four. I believe this is a combination of 2 things other than a conspiracy to force B1G teams to beat each other before the FF. 1) Chance - If the committee didn't make a conscious effort to put these teams in the 4 regions - it would still usually end up being multiple B1G top 4 in the same region. Or, the probability of all 4 being in a different region is much less than 2 or more being in the same region. 2) Pre earned Regional Host - There was more required 'doctoring' of the seeds prior to regional hosts that increased some seeding to be based on geography and thus increasing the chances of same conference/same region. This went away with earned regional hosts. Right now - I think the committee seeds the top 16 in the order they think is correct and let the conferences distribution fall as it comes out.
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jiml
Sophomore
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Post by jiml on Nov 26, 2019 11:19:00 GMT -5
... I think the committee seeds the top 16 in the order they think is correct and let the conferences distribution fall as it comes out. I think the committee starts by picking their top 16 seeds on their merits, given the framework they're working in (heavy on RPI, etc). However, once the seeds are picked they can finagle 5-16 up or down up to two numbers in order to help with geographic balance, less fly-ins, not having conference foes meet in the first two rounds, etc. The conference issue primarily affects Pac-12 and B1G, since they put so many teams into the tourney. So the lower seeds shouldn't get to obsessed with their exact number; it may have been tweaked for non-performance reasons.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 26, 2019 11:28:17 GMT -5
... I think the committee seeds the top 16 in the order they think is correct and let the conferences distribution fall as it comes out. I think the committee starts by picking their top 16 seeds on their merits, given the framework they're working in (heavy on RPI, etc). However, once the seeds are picked they can finagle 5-16 up or down up to two numbers in order to help with geographic balance, less fly-ins, not having conference foes meet in the first two rounds, etc. The conference issue primarily affects Pac-12 and B1G, since they put so many teams into the tourney. So the lower seeds shouldn't get to obsessed with their exact number; it may have been tweaked for non-performance reasons. I'm not sure they do much (or any) moving the seeds around anymore. They used to do that because of the pre-selected host sites. But I believe things like "fly-ins" and such are only considered when filling out the first two rounds. We've seen before when there were massive concentrations of teams from one conference in the same regional, and every time the Committee has said, "Huh. We didn't notice that. Anyway, it's no matter to us either way."
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Post by beba on Nov 26, 2019 11:32:13 GMT -5
I'm pre-outraged.
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Post by Reach on Nov 26, 2019 11:39:06 GMT -5
So this looks perfect for a Wisconsin - Stanford final. The committee should do everything they can to put Stanford opposite Texas but they’ll likely screw they up.
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