Bracketology (11/25)

[trojansc]

2019 Bracketology (11/25)

NCAA Selection Show - Sunday Dec. 1st, 2018 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU

Conference Tournaments this week: Big East, Big Sky, and Missouri Valley
I will be continuously editing this post throughout the week
Final Bracketology will be posted after all matches conclude and Selection RPI is calculated

Accuracy: In the previous 7 years, I've missed on 6 at-large teams, and 8 seeded teams. So, about 1 at-large and 1-seed per year. Complete history in 2nd post of this thread.

Who's in? 64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference

Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams

teams with a * have clinched their conference AQ/Championship

Atlantic 10 - Dayton*
AAC - UCF*|| At-Large: Cincinnati
ACC - Pittsburgh*  || At-Large: Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State 
America East - Albany* 
Atlantic Sun - Kennesaw State*
Big East - Creighton || At-Large: Marquette
Big Ten - Wisconsin  || At-Large: Nebraska, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue, Michigan, Illinois
Big 12 - Texas || At-Large: Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Big Sky - Northern Colorado
Big South - Winthrop*
Big West - Hawaii* || At-Large: UCSB, Cal Poly
Colonial - Towson*
Conference USA - Western Kentucky* || At-Large: Rice
Horizon - Northern Kentucky* || At-Large: Wright State, Green Bay, Milwaukee
Ivy League - Princeton*
Metro Atlantic - Fairfield*
Mid-American - Ball State*
Mid-Eastern - Howard*
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
Mountain West - Colorado State*
Northeast - Sacred Heart*
Ohio Valley- SE Missouri State*
Pacific-12- Stanford || At-Large: Washington, Utah, Southern California, UCLA, California, Washington State
Patriot - American*
Southeastern - Kentucky || At-Large: Florida, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina
Southland - Stephen F. Austin*
Southern - Samford*
Summit - Denver*
Sun Belt - Texas State*
Southwestern - Alabama State*
Western Athletic- New Mexico State*

West Coast - San Diego*  || At-Large: BYU

Four before the last 4 in: Wright State, California, Illinois, Michigan
Last 4 in: South Carolina, Washington State, Milwaukee, Green Bay
First 4 out: South Dakota, Virginia Commonwealth, Pepperdine, Coastal Carolina

Next 4 out: Southern Methodist, Arizona State, Villlanova, Georgia Tech

Bubble Teams
These are the (16) teams that I consider on the bubble to the NCAA Tournament. There are exactly (8) spots for this grouping of teams. If your team is not listed here, but is listed above as an at-large bid, Congratulations! You are a lock to the NCAA Tournament. Once I have placed a team as a *lock* to the NCAA-Tournament, they have never missed it.

Michigan
California
Illinois
Wright State
South Carolina
Washington State
Milwaukee
Green Bay
---------------------------
South Dakota
VCU
Pepperdine
Coastal Carolina
Southern Methodist
Arizona State
Villanova
Georgia Tech

---

Complete Predicted NCAA Tournament Bracket

1 Baylor (Texas State, UCLA, Alabama State) - 16 BYU (Utah, Wright State, American)
8 Minnesota (Southern California, South Carolina, Denver) - 9 Kentucky (Purdue, Northern Kentucky, SE Missouri State)

4 Pittsburgh (Cincinnati, Michigan, Howard) - 13 Marquette (Louisville, Illinois, Milwaukee)
5 Wisconsin (Notre Dame, Green Bay, Ball State) - 12 Hawaii (Western Kentucky, California, Samford)

3 Texas (Stephen F. Austin, Washington State, Fairfield) - 14 Penn State (Dayton, Towson, Sacred Heart)
6 Washington (Colorado State, Cal Poly, Northern Colorado) - 11 Florida (UCF, Florida State, Kennesaw State)

2 Stanford (UC Santa Barbara, Georgia, Albany)  - 15 Texas A&M (Rice, Oklahoma, New Mexico State)
7 Nebraska (San Diego, Northern Iowa, Winthrop) - 10 Creighton (Missouri, Iowa State, Princeton)

[trojansc]

Bracketology History

Missed At-Large bids (6 in 7 years)
-Perfect in 2012, 2013, and 2016.

2014
Committee Pick: Michigan State
My Pick: Virginia Tech

2015
Committee Pick: Northern Iowa
My Pick: Pittsburgh

2017
Committee Pick: High Point and LSU
My Pick: Maryland and North Texas

2018
Committee Pick: Denver and Hawaii
My Pick: Kansas and Kansas State

---

Missed Seeds (8 in 7 years)
-Only perfect in 2014.

2012
Committee Pick: Iowa State and Kentucky
My Pick: Hawaii and Tennessee

2013
Committee Pick: Wisconsin and Illinois
My Pick: Marquette and Florida State

2015
Committee Pick: Creighton
My Pick: Missouri

2016
Committee Pick: Penn State
My Pick: San Diego

2017
Committee pIck: Wichita State
My Pick: Kansas

2018
Committee pick: Marquette
My Pick: Baylor

[trojansc]

Bubble Team Profiles

(RPI numbers are as of 11/25)

Atlantic 10

Virginia Commonwealth (24-6, 16-0 A10)

RPI: 49
Non-Conference RPI: 68
SOS rank: 125
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-1
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-3
Significant Wins: 46 Dayton
Significant Losses: None
Last 10 games: 9-1

American Athletic (AAC)

Southern Methodist (18-9, 11-5 AAC)

RPI: 58
Non-Conference RPI: 59
SOS rank: 71
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-3
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-3
Significant Wins: 46 Dayton
Significant Losses: 111 Houston
Last 10 games: 5-4
Remaining Matches: (North Texas)

ACC

Georgia Tech (20-8, 13-4 ACC)

RPI: 57
Non-Conference RPI: 95
SOS rank: 62
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-2
Record against 26-50 RPI: 2-4
Record against 51-100 RPI: 2-1
Significant Wins: 34 Notre Dame, 35 Florida State
Significant Losses: 131 Boston College
Last 10 games: 8-1
Remaining Matches: (at Miami-FL)

Big East

Villanova (22-8, 13-5 Big East)

RPI: 60
Non-Conference RPI: 63
SOS rank: 113
Record against 1-25 RPI: 1-3
Record against 26-50 RPI: 0-1
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-1
Significant Wins: 17 Creighton
Significant Losses: 112 TCU, 127 La Salle, 180 DePaul
Last 10 games: 7-3
Remaining Matches: (at Big East Tournament)

Big Ten

Illinois (15-12, 10-8 B1G)

RPI: 43
Non-Conference RPI: 53
SOS rank: 18
Record against 1-25 RPI: 2-8
Record against 26-50 RPI: 0-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 7-2
Significant Wins: 12 Marquette, 23 Purdue
Significant Losses: None
Last 10 games: 5-3
Remaining Matches: (at Northwestern, Northwestern)

Michigan (19-9, 12-6 B1G)
RPI: 39
Non-Conference RPI: 51
SOS rank: 54
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-7
Record against 26-50 RPI: 3-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 7-0
Significant Wins: Notre Dame, Illinois(x2)
Significant Losses: None     
Last 10 games: 6-2
Remaining Matches: (Purdue, Indiana)

Horizon

Milwaukee (26-6, 12-4 Horizon)

RPI: 54
Non-Conference RPI: 82
SOS rank: 202
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-0
Record against 26-50 RPI: 5-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 2-0
Significant Wins: 44 Wright State, 47 Green Bay(x3), 48 Northern Kentucky
Significant Losses: 119 Oakland(x2), 293 Eastern Washington
Last 10 games: 6-4

Wright State (24-5, 13-3 Horizon)
RPI: 44
Non-Conference RPI: 64
SOS rank: 72
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-0
Record against 26-50 RPI: 4-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-3
Significant Wins: 34 Notre Dame, 47 Green Bay, 48 Northern Kentucky(x2)
Significant Losses: None
Last 10 games: 8-2

Green Bay (21-9, 12-4 Horizon)
RPI: 47
Non-Conference RPI: 61
SOS rank: 61
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-2
Record against 26-50 RPI: 3-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-3
Significant Wins: 44 Wright State, 48 Northern Kentucky(x2)
Significant Losses: 151 Cleveland State, 173 North Dakota State
Last 10 games: 7-3

Pac-12

California (24-8, 10-8 Pac-12)

RPI: 45
Non-Conference RPI: 25
SOS rank: 127
Record against 1-25 RPI: 2-2
Record against 26-50 RPI: 3-4
Record against 51-100 RPI: 5-2
Significant Wins: 16 Utah, 25 Colorado State
Significant Losses: None
Last 10 games: 3-5
Remaining Matches: (at Washington, at Stanford)

Washington State (22-8, 11-7 Pac-12)
RPI: 56
Non-Conference RPI: 69
SOS rank: 185
Record against 1-25 RPI: 2-1
Record against 26-50 RPI: 2-5
Record against 51-100 RPI: 6-2
Significant Wins: 8 Washington, 16 Utah, 27 Southern California(x2)
Significant Losses: None
Last 10 games: 4-4 
Remaining Matches: (Stanford, at Washington)

Arizona State (16-13, 8-10 Pac-12)
RPI: 50
Non-Conference RPI: 32
SOS rank: 22
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-8
Record against 26-50 RPI: 0-4
Record against 51-100 RPI: 8-1
Significant Wins: None
Significant Losses: None
Last 10 games: 3-5
Remaining Matches: (Southern California, at Arizona)

SEC

South Carolina (18-10, 10-6 SEC)

RPI: 41
Non-Conference RPI: 40
SOS rank: 35
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-9
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-1
Record against 51-100 RPI: 5-0
Significant Wins: 33 Georgia
Significant Losses: NONE
Last 10 games: 6-2
Remaining Matches: (Texas A&M, Arkansas)

Summit

South Dakota (27-2, 16-0 Summit)
RPI: 42
Non-Conference RPI: 38
SOS rank: 209
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-0
Record against 26-50 RPI: 0-1
Record against 51-100 RPI: 5-0
Significant Wins: None
Significant Losses: 124 Nebraska Omaha
Last 10 games: 9-1

Sun Belt

Coastal Carolina (24-6, 13-3 Sun Belt)

RPI: 53
Non-Conference RPI: 62
SOS rank: 152
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-0
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-1
Significant Wins: 36 Towson
Significant Losses: 132 UT Arlington, 149 Lipscomb
Last 10 games: 6-4

WCC

Pepperdine (18-10, 14-3 WCC)

RPI: 55
Non-Conference RPI: 86
SOS rank: 57
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-4
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 1-1
Significant Wins: 26 San Diego
Significant Losses: 130 North Texas, 142 Saint Mary's
Last 10 games: 7-2
Remaining Matches: (at BYU)

[hammer]

trojansc, THANK YOU for your detailed analysis!! It is much appreciated.

[utexrulz23]

This is so amazing, as per expected.

Only thing I can see at first glance is that you have Michigan in Penn State’s sub regional.

[trojansc]

Nov 26, 2019 0:57:37 GMT -5 utexrulz23 said:

This is so amazing, as per expected.

Only thing I can see at first glance is that you have Michigan in Penn State’s sub regional.

Whoops! They were supposed to go to Pittsburgh. It's fixed now. Two hosts in Pennsylvania - I'm still adjusting to that!

[txnut]

You also have Louisville with Pittsburgh.

That can be fixed by changing Cincinnati and Louisville. 

[trojansc]

Nov 26, 2019 2:51:04 GMT -5 txnut said:

You also have Louisville with Pittsburgh.

That can be fixed by changing Cincinnati and Louisville. 

Thank you! I made the bracket kind of quickly trying to minimize the most flights.

I need to check the NCAA official site - is Louisville within 400 miles of Marquette - but not Wisconsin?

[haw2991]

Nov 26, 2019 3:08:51 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 26, 2019 2:51:04 GMT -5 txnut said:

You also have Louisville with Pittsburgh.

That can be fixed by changing Cincinnati and Louisville. 

Thank you! I made the bracket kind of quickly trying to minimize the most flights.

I need to check the NCAA official site - is Louisville within 400 miles of Marquette - but not Wisconsin?

Just barely, 395 miles from Louisville to Marquette. 450 miles to Wisconsin....

I did a ton of research after completing my bracket, specifically on the travel distance.

I think if the committee stays frugal, they're going to keep Louisville in Lexington because that would be a drive-in, 70 miles....

Purdue to Marquette would actually be 40 miles closer compared to Purdue to Kentucky....

Honestly though, I'm hoping the committee surprises us all and mixes it up.....

[txnut]

Nov 26, 2019 3:08:51 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 26, 2019 2:51:04 GMT -5 txnut said:

You also have Louisville with Pittsburgh.

That can be fixed by changing Cincinnati and Louisville. 

Thank you! I made the bracket kind of quickly trying to minimize the most flights.

I need to check the NCAA official site - is Louisville within 400 miles of Marquette - but not Wisconsin?

I get Marquette to Louisville is 389. 

[Brutus Buckeye]

In addition to them losing out, what outcomes would most likely result in the Wolverines getting their bubble burst?

[trojansc]

Nov 26, 2019 3:20:54 GMT -5 haw2991 said:

Nov 26, 2019 3:08:51 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Thank you! I made the bracket kind of quickly trying to minimize the most flights.

I need to check the NCAA official site - is Louisville within 400 miles of Marquette - but not Wisconsin?

Just barely, 395 miles from Louisville to Marquette. 450 miles to Wisconsin....

I did a ton of research after completing my bracket, specifically on the travel distance.

I think if the committee stays frugal, they're going to keep Louisville in Lexington because that would be a drive-in, 70 miles....

Purdue to Marquette would actually be 40 miles closer compared to Purdue to Kentucky....

Honestly though, I'm hoping the committee surprises us all and mixes it up.....

Did you post it in the last thread? Can you share it here too? Would like to see the total number of flights you have compared to mine.

I think it doesn’t matter how far they are — as long as they are within 400 miles the NCAA doesn’t have to pay? So 70 vs. 395 is irrelevant, right?

[trojansc]

Nov 26, 2019 3:29:38 GMT -5 Brutus Buckeye said:

In addition to them losing out, what outcomes would most likely result in the Wolverines getting their bubble burst?

The only real way I see Michigan out is if they lose twice and Illinois loses twice. Both of those outcomes are very unlikely

[huskerrob]

sorry my phone must have scrolled over that part..

[bprtbone]

No bubble team profile for Michigan?

My only disagreement is with Green Bay and Milwaukee; I just can't see them sending 4 from the Horizon. I wouldn't be surprised to see only NKU and Wright State get in. That SOS for Milwaukee should be disqualifying on its own but they are also on the wrong side of 50. It's a big reach for a team from that league.