jiml
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Posts: 234
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Post by jiml on Dec 1, 2019 13:47:47 GMT -5
Illinois? ... finish ... with a loss at Northwestern Don't underestimate Northwestern, who went 5-5 in the second half of the B1G season. When I saw them play in Madison they looked a lot better than their early season record.
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Post by jayj79 on Dec 1, 2019 13:59:56 GMT -5
Who are the Top 25 wins? Figstats shows no Top 50 wins for Arizona State I was referencing AVCA top 25 (WSU x 2).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2019 14:11:27 GMT -5
Final 2019 Bracketology
NCAA Selection Show - Sunday Dec. 1st, 2019 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU Final RPI Numbers are from bluepenquin Accuracy: In the previous 7 years, I've missed on 6 at-large teams, and 8 seeded teams. So, about 1 at-large and 1-seed per year. Complete history in 2nd post of this thread. 16 Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds
1 Baylor
2 Stanford
3 Texas
4 Pittsburgh
5 Wisconsin
6 Kentucky
7 Washington
8 Nebraska
9 Minnesota
10 Florida
11 Marquette
12 Hawaii
13 Texas A&M
14 Penn State
15 BYU
16 Rice
Just Missed it: Western Kentucky, Utah, Creighton, Purdue
Seeding Rationale
Baylor is the clear #1 from what I'm seeing. Stanford holds down the 2 spot because of its quality wins and brutal non-conference schedule. Texas comes in at #3 and would probably be #2 if they didn't have a H2H loss to Stanford. Pittsburgh won the final regional hosting spot at #4 on a few factors -- but of course it is very important they are ahead of Wisconsin in RPI. They can pretty much match Wisconsin's quality wins in the T25 and T50 category -- but Pittsburgh doesn't have as bad of a loss as Wisconsin had. Pittsburgh is really really fortunate that Louisville was able to finish in the T25.
The rest of the seeds after that seemed relatively clear to me up until 15 and 16. I think the Top 14 are all seeded teams. They could be jumbled around -- but the last two are really the biggest question marks. After throwing out Mizzou - I came to six teams for the final two spots (Rice - Western Kentucky - BYU - Utah - Creighton - Purdue). You could kind of make cases for all of them -- they all have unique characteristics.
This was really hard for me because if I could pick any of those two -- I wanted both Utah and BYU. I really did. But I just think the committee is only going to give it to one of them -- and I went with BYU. BYU has the H2H and common opponent advantage by beating Stanford -- which I think is pretty huge. I also really found it interesting that Creighton, Purdue, and Utah all had their best win of Kentucky.
I ended up settling on Rice at #16. This was very tough and I could easily see Western Kentucky or Utah as the first in line to take Rice's place. Rice was the only team that had TWO non-conference Top 25 victories. The committee seems to really emphasize the non-conference for seeded teams - and Rice has that ginormous win over Texas, which might be just better enough than the bubble seeds' wins over Kentucky. I have very little confidence in this at all - and in all honesty I wanted to put Utah here. But Utah had some sketchy losses and I'm just not seeing two hosts in Utah. And of course -- how do you not mention WKU who beat Rice twice, on Rice's home court, and is just one spot behind them?! Well - WKU's best non-conference win is Northern Kentucky -- so that wasn't good enough for me. It was really close. Will be interesting to see what the committee decides.
Who's in? 64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams Atlantic 10 - Dayton AAC - UCF || At-Large: Cincinnati ACC - Pittsburgh || At-Large: Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State America East - Albany Atlantic Sun - Kennesaw State Big East - St. John's || At-Large: Marquette, Creighton Big Ten - Wisconsin || At-Large: Nebraska, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan Big 12 - Texas || At-Large: Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State Big Sky - Northern Colorado Big South - Winthrop Big West - Hawaii || At-Large: UCSB, Cal Poly Colonial - Towson Conference USA - Western Kentucky || At-Large: Rice Horizon - Northern Kentucky || At-Large: Wright State Ivy League - Princeton Metro Atlantic - Fairfield Mid-American - Ball State Mid-Eastern - Howard Missouri Valley - Illinois State || At-Large: Northern Iowa Mountain West - Colorado State Northeast - Sacred Heart Ohio Valley- SE Missouri State Pacific-12- Stanford || At-Large: Washington, Utah, Southern California, UCLA, California, Washington State Patriot - American Southeastern - Kentucky || At-Large: Florida, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina Southland - Stephen F. Austin Southern - Samford Summit - Denver Sun Belt - Texas State Southwestern - Alabama State Western Athletic- New Mexico State West Coast - San Diego || At-Large: BYU Four before the last 4 in: Wright State, Washington State, California, Northern Iowa Last 4 in: Iowa State, Illinois, Michigan, South Carolina First 4 out: South Dakota, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Virginia Commonwealth Next 4 out: Pepperdine, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Tech, Arizona State,
Rationale for Bubble Teams
Well. I would be pretty surprised if someone from the "Four before the last Four" gets left out, and I would be pretty surprised if someone from the "Next Four Out" gets a tournament bid. That was a lot much easier than trying to separate the next group of teams. Wright State has the RPI and quality victories -- including an OOC at Notre Dame. Washington State has by far the best victories but a terrible S.O.S -- the nonconference is killing them. But Wazzu should be safe. California has some good wins as well and Northern Iowa has RPI distance in its favor. I just cannot see how the committee is going to leave out any of those teams.
These are the 8 final teams that were the hardest decisions (RPI Futures rank):
38. South Dakota 42. Michigan 43. Green Bay 44. South Carolina 46. Iowa State 47. VCU 51. Illinois 55. Milwaukee
I decided that of all of those eight teams -- Iowa State was actually my favorite. Iowa State has 3 T50 wins -- Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Northern Iowa. Having two H2H wins -- both being out of conference -- against other bubble teams -- was enough to convince me that Iowa State will get in. And of my least favorite -- Virginia Commonwealth. VCU just didn't have much to sell - they needed an RPI around where South Dakota is to probably get a bid. So, that helped a little bit. I now had 6 teams -- and just three bids from that grouping.
Of those 6 - my favorite was actually Illinois. Illinois had beaten Marquette in the non-conference, which is the best OOC win of this grouping. They also had another big win AT Purdue. Two top 25 wins -- and one of which is on the road -- I don't think Illinois should be left out. What qualifies South Dakota being ahead of Illinois, for example? This is where the committee needs to look beyond RPI.
After I decided Illinois was in -- Michigan was the next team on my list. This was tough -- because Michigan and South Carolina look pretty similar when you put their team sheets next to each other. But I liked that Michigan won a good OOC game -- while also beating Illinois twice. Even if Illinois isn't T50 as blue has them at 51 -- it still counts as two quality wins against a team receiving an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Michigan's also really fortunate that their RPI held up enough at 42. This is a major factor towards them getting into the dance.
So now - we're left with just one last bid. South Dakota? South Carolina? Green Bay? or Milwaukee? It's really really tough. South Dakota, sadly, did nothing significant. Their best win is Wyoming -- who won't be in the tournament and is not even in at-large consideration. South Carolina did not lose a match to anyone outside of the T50 RPI all season -- but they split with Georgia and that's their best argument for getting into the tournament. Green Bay has a much better RPI than Milwaukee and has three top 50 wins -- a good record in that category compared to the other teams. But those teams are all 40s in RPI -- so how much respect will Green Bay get for that? Last is Milwaukee. Milwaukee's kind of a hot mess -- but you've gotta have them here? They beat Green Bay THREE TIMES. They also beat Northern Kentucky & Wright State. That gives them 5 T50 wins -- but all of them are conference foes and Milwaukee also has an astronomically bad loss to Eastern Washington, who is ~290(!) in RPI.
After all that -- I decided to settle on South Carolina. They won at Georgia, which is the best win of any of the remaining teams, and also they did it on the road. I could easily be wrong here. South Dakota does have an RPI advantage. Green Bay has 3 T50 and Milwaukee has 5 T50 wins -- while Carolina has just one. But Carolina is also doesn't have much bad about them like mentioned above. It's so hard when you get to this point because you just want to know what the committee is looking for or talking about when it comes to these at-large bids. They could choose to emphasize one criteria over another and we're not quite sure which. I will not be surprised if I see Milwaukee, South Dakota, or Green Bay's name called on Selection Sunday.
Final Predicted NCAA Tournament Bracket
Waco Regional
(1) Baylor vs. Alabama State Texas State vs. Cal Poly
(16) Rice vs. American Colorado State vs. Washington State
(8) Nebraska vs. Denver Northern Iowa vs. Missouri
(9) Minnesota vs. Princeton Creighton vs. Samford
Pittsburgh Regional
(4) Pittsburgh vs. Howard Cincinnati vs. Michigan
(13) Texas A&M vs. St. John's Oklahoma vs. Western Kentucky
(5) Wisconsin vs. Ball State Notre Dame vs. California
(12) Hawaii vs. Northern Colorado Southern California vs. Georgia
Palo Alto Regional
(2) Stanford vs. Albany UC Santa Barbara vs. South Carolina
(15) BYU vs. New Mexico State Utah vs. Illinois
(7) Washington vs. Winthrop San Diego vs. Wright State
(10) Florida vs. Kennesaw State UCF vs. Florida State
Austin Regional
(3) Texas vs. Fairfield Stephen F. Austin vs. UCLA
(14) Penn State vs. Sacred Heart Dayton vs. Towson
(6) Kentucky vs. SE Missouri State Louisville vs. Northern Kentucky
(11) Marquette vs. Illinois State Purdue vs. Iowa State
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2019 14:11:42 GMT -5
Final 2019 Bracketology
NCAA Selection Show - Sunday Dec. 1st, 2019 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU Final RPI Numbers are from bluepenquin Accuracy: In the previous 7 years, I've missed on 6 at-large teams, and 8 seeded teams. So, about 1 at-large and 1-seed per year. Complete history in 2nd post of this thread. 16 Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds
1 Baylor
2 Stanford
3 Texas
4 Pittsburgh
5 Wisconsin
6 Kentucky
7 Washington
8 Nebraska
9 Minnesota
10 Florida
11 Marquette
12 Hawaii
13 Texas A&M
14 Penn State
15 BYU
16 Rice
Just Missed it: Western Kentucky, Utah, Creighton, Purdue
Seeding Rationale
Baylor is the clear #1 from what I'm seeing. Stanford holds down the 2 spot because of its quality wins and brutal non-conference schedule. Texas comes in at #3 and would probably be #2 if they didn't have a H2H loss to Stanford. Pittsburgh won the final regional hosting spot at #4 on a few factors -- but of course it is very important they are ahead of Wisconsin in RPI. They can pretty much match Wisconsin's quality wins in the T25 and T50 category -- but Pittsburgh doesn't have as bad of a loss as Wisconsin had. Pittsburgh is really really fortunate that Louisville was able to finish in the T25.
The rest of the seeds after that seemed relatively clear to me up until 15 and 16. I think the Top 14 are all seeded teams. They could be jumbled around -- but the last two are really the biggest question marks. After throwing out Mizzou - I came to six teams for the final two spots (Rice - Western Kentucky - BYU - Utah - Creighton - Purdue). You could kind of make cases for all of them -- they all have unique characteristics.
This was really hard for me because if I could pick any of those two -- I wanted both Utah and BYU. I really did. But I just think the committee is only going to give it to one of them -- and I went with BYU. BYU has the H2H and common opponent advantage by beating Stanford -- which I think is pretty huge. I also really found it interesting that Creighton, Purdue, and Utah all had their best win of Kentucky.
I ended up settling on Rice at #16. This was very tough and I could easily see Western Kentucky or Utah as the first in line to take Rice's place. Rice was the only team that had TWO non-conference Top 25 victories. The committee seems to really emphasize the non-conference for seeded teams - and Rice has that ginormous win over Texas, which might be just better enough than the bubble seeds' wins over Kentucky. I have very little confidence in this at all - and in all honesty I wanted to put Utah here. But Utah had some sketchy losses and I'm just not seeing two hosts in Utah. And of course -- how do you not mention WKU who beat Rice twice, on Rice's home court, and is just one spot behind them?! Well - WKU's best non-conference win is Northern Kentucky -- so that wasn't good enough for me. It was really close. Will be interesting to see what the committee decides.
Who's in? 64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams Atlantic 10 - Dayton AAC - UCF || At-Large: Cincinnati ACC - Pittsburgh || At-Large: Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State America East - Albany Atlantic Sun - Kennesaw State Big East - St. John's || At-Large: Marquette, Creighton Big Ten - Wisconsin || At-Large: Nebraska, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan Big 12 - Texas || At-Large: Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State Big Sky - Northern Colorado Big South - Winthrop Big West - Hawaii || At-Large: UCSB, Cal Poly Colonial - Towson Conference USA - Western Kentucky || At-Large: Rice Horizon - Northern Kentucky || At-Large: Wright State Ivy League - Princeton Metro Atlantic - Fairfield Mid-American - Ball State Mid-Eastern - Howard Missouri Valley - Illinois State || At-Large: Northern Iowa Mountain West - Colorado State Northeast - Sacred Heart Ohio Valley- SE Missouri State Pacific-12- Stanford || At-Large: Washington, Utah, Southern California, UCLA, California, Washington State Patriot - American Southeastern - Kentucky || At-Large: Florida, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina Southland - Stephen F. Austin Southern - Samford Summit - Denver Sun Belt - Texas State Southwestern - Alabama State Western Athletic- New Mexico State West Coast - San Diego || At-Large: BYU Four before the last 4 in: Wright State, Washington State, California, Northern Iowa Last 4 in: Iowa State, Illinois, Michigan, South Carolina First 4 out: South Dakota, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Virginia Commonwealth Next 4 out: Pepperdine, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Tech, Arizona State,
Rationale for Bubble Teams
Well. I would be pretty surprised if someone from the "Four before the last Four" gets left out, and I would be pretty surprised if someone from the "Next Four Out" gets a tournament bid. That was a lot much easier than trying to separate the next group of teams. Wright State has the RPI and quality victories -- including an OOC at Notre Dame. Washington State has by far the best victories but a terrible S.O.S -- the nonconference is killing them. But Wazzu should be safe. California has some good wins as well and Northern Iowa has RPI distance in its favor. I just cannot see how the committee is going to leave out any of those teams.
These are the 8 final teams that were the hardest decisions (RPI Futures rank):
38. South Dakota 42. Michigan 43. Green Bay 44. South Carolina 46. Iowa State 47. VCU 51. Illinois 55. Milwaukee
I decided that of all of those eight teams -- Iowa State was actually my favorite. Iowa State has 3 T50 wins -- Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Northern Iowa. Having two H2H wins -- both being out of conference -- against other bubble teams -- was enough to convince me that Iowa State will get in. And of my least favorite -- Virginia Commonwealth. VCU just didn't have much to sell - they needed an RPI around where South Dakota is to probably get a bid. So, that helped a little bit. I now had 6 teams -- and just three bids from that grouping.
Of those 6 - my favorite was actually Illinois. Illinois had beaten Marquette in the non-conference, which is the best OOC win of this grouping. They also had another big win AT Purdue. Two top 25 wins -- and one of which is on the road -- I don't think Illinois should be left out. What qualifies South Dakota being ahead of Illinois, for example? This is where the committee needs to look beyond RPI.
After I decided Illinois was in -- Michigan was the next team on my list. This was tough -- because Michigan and South Carolina look pretty similar when you put their team sheets next to each other. But I liked that Michigan won a good OOC game -- while also beating Illinois twice. Even if Illinois isn't T50 as blue has them at 51 -- it still counts as two quality wins against a team receiving an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Michigan's also really fortunate that their RPI held up enough at 42. This is a major factor towards them getting into the dance.
So now - we're left with just one last bid. South Dakota? South Carolina? Green Bay? or Milwaukee? It's really really tough. South Dakota, sadly, did nothing significant. Their best win is Wyoming -- who won't be in the tournament and is not even in at-large consideration. South Carolina did not lose a match to anyone outside of the T50 RPI all season -- but they split with Georgia and that's their best argument for getting into the tournament. Green Bay has a much better RPI than Milwaukee and has three top 50 wins -- a good record in that category compared to the other teams. But those teams are all 40s in RPI -- so how much respect will Green Bay get for that? Last is Milwaukee. Milwaukee's kind of a hot mess -- but you've gotta have them here? They beat Green Bay THREE TIMES. They also beat Northern Kentucky & Wright State. That gives them 5 T50 wins -- but all of them are conference foes and Milwaukee also has an astronomically bad loss to Eastern Washington, who is ~290(!) in RPI.
After all that -- I decided to settle on South Carolina. They won at Georgia, which is the best win of any of the remaining teams, and also they did it on the road. I could easily be wrong here. South Dakota does have an RPI advantage. Green Bay has 3 T50 and Milwaukee has 5 T50 wins -- while Carolina has just one. But Carolina is also doesn't have much bad about them like mentioned above. It's so hard when you get to this point because you just want to know what the committee is looking for or talking about when it comes to these at-large bids. They could choose to emphasize one criteria over another and we're not quite sure which. I will not be surprised if I see Milwaukee, South Dakota, or Green Bay's name called on Selection Sunday.
Final Predicted NCAA Tournament Bracket
Waco Regional
(1) Baylor vs. Alabama State Texas State vs. Cal Poly
(16) Rice vs. American Colorado State vs. Washington State
(8) Nebraska vs. Denver Northern Iowa vs. Missouri
(9) Minnesota vs. Princeton Creighton vs. Samford
Pittsburgh Regional
(4) Pittsburgh vs. Howard Cincinnati vs. Michigan
(13) Texas A&M vs. St. John's Oklahoma vs. Western Kentucky
(5) Wisconsin vs. Ball State Notre Dame vs. California
(12) Hawaii vs. Northern Colorado Southern California vs. Georgia
Palo Alto Regional
(2) Stanford vs. Albany UC Santa Barbara vs. South Carolina
(15) BYU vs. New Mexico State Utah vs. Illinois
(7) Washington vs. Winthrop San Diego vs. Wright State
(10) Florida vs. Kennesaw State UCF vs. Florida State
Austin Regional
(3) Texas vs. Fairfield Stephen F. Austin vs. UCLA
(14) Penn State vs. Sacred Heart Dayton vs. Towson
(6) Kentucky vs. SE Missouri State Louisville vs. Northern Kentucky
(11) Marquette vs. Illinois State Purdue vs. Iowa State
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Post by ilikecorn on Dec 1, 2019 14:14:28 GMT -5
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Post by wishinwestcoastvb on Dec 1, 2019 14:15:42 GMT -5
If this final prediction is actually the bracket that comes out, there will potentially be some interesting results.
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Post by sclawman on Dec 1, 2019 14:18:57 GMT -5
I wish I could like the original post more than once. trojansc possesses the wisdom of Solomon. We can only hope the committee is so wise.
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Post by blue-footedbooby on Dec 1, 2019 14:21:46 GMT -5
I just hate the thought of Washington and Stanford (1 and 2 in PAC) being in the same regional.
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Post by blue-footedbooby on Dec 1, 2019 14:27:01 GMT -5
I was referencing AVCA top 25 (WSU x 2). No, but when you figure in other metrics such as SOS and conference RPI along with polling and bad losses, ASU looks better than IS in combined metrics. And to not look at what many would consider 5 bad losses...well holy smokes batman.
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Post by smartrf on Dec 1, 2019 14:46:40 GMT -5
Thank you trojansc for writing this. I enjoy reading these posts each year.
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Post by jayj79 on Dec 1, 2019 14:58:04 GMT -5
I'm here for the Brak-etology.
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Post by ay2013 on Dec 1, 2019 15:08:22 GMT -5
I was just noticing that only one of ASUs losses (@ colorado ) is to a none tournament bound team. You would think not having any bad losses and two T25 wins would be enough to get a team in. Compared to say a Iowa State which has 5 none tournament team losses and 0 T25 wins. It makes me wonder if maybe the PAC quota is the issue. Asu has no top 25 wins.
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Post by blue-footedbooby on Dec 1, 2019 15:14:27 GMT -5
I was just noticing that only one of ASUs losses (@ colorado ) is to a none tournament bound team. You would think not having any bad losses and two T25 wins would be enough to get a team in. Compared to say a Iowa State which has 5 none tournament team losses and 0 T25 wins. It makes me wonder if maybe the PAC quota is the issue. Asu has no top 25 wins. See above post.
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trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 28,360
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Post by trojansc on Dec 1, 2019 15:18:34 GMT -5
I was just noticing that only one of ASUs losses (@ colorado ) is to a none tournament bound team. You would think not having any bad losses and two T25 wins would be enough to get a team in. Compared to say a Iowa State which has 5 none tournament team losses and 0 T25 wins. It makes me wonder if maybe the PAC quota is the issue. Huh? ASU only beat Wazzu? Not even close to T25?
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Post by blue-footedbooby on Dec 1, 2019 15:21:05 GMT -5
I was just noticing that only one of ASUs losses (@ colorado ) is to a none tournament bound team. You would think not having any bad losses and two T25 wins would be enough to get a team in. Compared to say a Iowa State which has 5 none tournament team losses and 0 T25 wins. It makes me wonder if maybe the PAC quota is the issue. Huh? ASU only beat Wazzu? Not even close to T25? Read previous post. T25 is a reference to AVCA poll. Something Iowa State doesn't have.
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