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Post by jayj79 on Dec 1, 2019 11:31:45 GMT -5
Does the committee care that BYU already played Utah and Stanford? #idontwanttoplaythemagain they might try to avoid rematches in the first round, and maybe the second. But I don't think that takes that high of a priority. And I doubt it factors much at all in potential rematches in later rounds. Or perhaps "higher profile" teams get more preferential treatment in that regard. I know they've had no problem setting up the team I follow in a rematch of a non-conference opponent played earlier in the season.
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Post by dunninla3 on Dec 1, 2019 11:52:13 GMT -5
Not that I’m complaining but ima need you to explain that 6-8 portion. If the argument for Kentucky being there is RPI(I assume), why would Washington be ahead of Nebraska when they are behind them in RPI, have two more losses, lost within the past 24 hours and Nebraska’s only lost to Stanford, Wisconsin and a nearly seeded Purdue? I almost still put Washington at 6 ahead of Kentucky. Washington can match Nebraska's best OOC win (they both beat Creighton) but Washington also beat Wisconsin(x2) and Stanford. Washington went 3-0 vs. Stanford/Wisconsin while Nebraska went 0-3 against Stanford/Wisconsin. Washington has some baggage with worse losses -- but you can't look at the significant wins and common opponents and not see Washington with a huge advantage there. I still wouldn't be surprised at any 6-9 order though. UDub I'm sure would much rather be seeded #8 than #7. They hope jwvolley is on the Committee.
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Post by azvb on Dec 1, 2019 11:52:24 GMT -5
Does the committee care that BYU already played Utah and Stanford? #idontwanttoplaythemagain they might try to avoid rematches in the first round, and maybe the second. But I don't think that takes that high of a priority. And I doubt it factors much at all in potential rematches in later rounds. Or perhaps "higher profile" teams get more preferential treatment in that regard. I know they've had no problem setting up the team I follow in a rematch of a non-conference opponent played earlier in the season. Yeah, I figured. Last thing I want is Utah and Stanford with revenge in their veins for a regular season loss. Again.
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Post by dunninla3 on Dec 1, 2019 12:05:14 GMT -5
Final 2019 Bracketology NCAA Selection Show - Sunday Dec. 1st, 2019 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU Final RPI Numbers are from bluepenquin So now - we're left with just one last bid. South Carolina did not lose a match to anyone outside of the T50 RPI all season -- but they split with Georgia and that's their best argument for getting into the tournament. Milwaukee's kind of a hot mess -- but you've gotta have them here? They beat Green Bay THREE TIMES. They also beat Northern Kentucky & Wright State. That gives them 5 T50 wins -- but all of them are conference foes and Milwaukee also has an astronomically bad loss to Eastern Washington, who is ~290(!) in RPI.
After all that -- I decided to settle on South Carolina. I could easily be wrong here. South Dakota does have an RPI advantage. Green Bay has 3 T50 and Milwaukee has 5 T50 wins -- while Carolina has just one. IDK, I think I'd take a hot mess with 5 T50 over a team with 1 T50. For me, Milwaukee over South Carolina for potential, but South Carolina's RPI of 45 just can't be ignored. So I guess I agree with your choice of South Carolina for that last spot.
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Post by Diggin' Water on Dec 1, 2019 12:08:42 GMT -5
Here is where I have the seeds: 11 Hawaii 6 Washington I would love to see this Sweet 16 matchup...
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Post by bball on Dec 1, 2019 12:12:06 GMT -5
Does anyone think the top 4 could go: 1 Baylor 2 Stanford 3 Pittsburgh 4 Texas I think anything is possible with 2, 3 and 4 being inter changeable. Baylor will be #1 likely... but with the committee you NEVER really know.
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Post by dunninla3 on Dec 1, 2019 12:19:27 GMT -5
Uhm..... I really dont agree with your seeding predictions. I appreciate your work, but I dont think those were too accurate. We shall see What friggin kind of post says they don't agree but don't say a single word about why?
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Post by haw2991 on Dec 1, 2019 12:21:40 GMT -5
I posted on the previous bracketology, just wanted to posted here to make comparisons:
1. Baylor, UCLA, Stephen F. Austin, Alabama State 16. Western Kentucky, Creighton, Wright State, Samford
8. Washington, UCSB, Illinois, Northern Colorado 9. Kentucky, Louisville, Northern Kentucky, SE Missouri State
4. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Towson, Howard 13. Marquette, Purdue, Norte Dame, Illinois State
5. Wisconsin, Missouri, Northern Iowa, Ball State 12. Hawaii, Colorado State, Washington State, New Mexico State
2. Texas, Texas State, Cal, Albany 15. Texas A&M, Rice, Oklahoma, Winthrop
7. Minnesota, Southern California, South Carolina, Fairfield 10. Penn State, Dayton, St. John’s, Sacred Heart
3. Stanford, Cal Poly, Michigan, Princeton 14. BYU, Utah, Georgia, Denver
6. Nebraska, San Diego, Iowa State, American 11. Florida, UCF, Florida State, Kennesaw State
Last 4 In: Iowa State, UNI, South Carolina, Illinois Last 4 out: South Dakota, VCU, Milwaukee, Green Bay Next 4 out: Arizona State, Pepperdine, Coastal Carolina, SMU
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Post by ay2013 on Dec 1, 2019 12:52:23 GMT -5
Thanks for all your hard work Trojan!
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Post by blue-footedbooby on Dec 1, 2019 13:17:13 GMT -5
I was just noticing that only one of ASUs losses (@ colorado ) is to a none tournament bound team. You would think not having any bad losses and two T25 wins would be enough to get a team in. Compared to say a Iowa State which has 5 none tournament team losses and 0 T25 wins. It makes me wonder if maybe the PAC quota is the issue.
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Post by jayj79 on Dec 1, 2019 13:23:02 GMT -5
I was just noticing that only one of ASUs losses (@ colorado ) is to a none tournament bound team. You would think not having any bad losses and two T25 wins would be enough to get a team in. Compared to say a Iowa State which has 5 none tournament team losses and 0 T25 wins. It makes me wonder if maybe the PAC quota is the issue. RPI of 59 is probably more of an issue
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2019 13:25:47 GMT -5
I was just noticing that only one of ASUs losses (@ colorado ) is to a none tournament bound team. You would think not having any bad losses and two T25 wins would be enough to get a team in. Compared to say a Iowa State which has 5 none tournament team losses and 0 T25 wins. It makes me wonder if maybe the PAC quota is the issue. Who are the Top 25 wins? Figstats shows no Top 50 wins for Arizona State
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Post by FreeBall on Dec 1, 2019 13:26:29 GMT -5
I posted on the previous bracketology, just wanted to posted here to make comparisons: 1. Baylor, UCLA, Stephen F. Austin, Alabama State 16. Western Kentucky, Creighton, Wright State, Samford 8. Washington, UCSB, Illinois, Northern Colorado 9. Kentucky, Louisville, Northern Kentucky, SE Missouri State 4. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Towson, Howard 13. Marquette, Purdue, Norte Dame, Illinois State 5. Wisconsin, Missouri, Northern Iowa, Ball State 12. Hawaii, Colorado State, Washington State, New Mexico State 2. Texas, Texas State, Cal, Albany 15. Texas A&M, Rice, Oklahoma, Winthrop 7. Minnesota, Southern California, South Carolina, Fairfield 10. Penn State, Dayton, St. John’s, Sacred Heart 3. Stanford, Cal Poly, Michigan, Princeton 14. BYU, Utah, Georgia, Denver 6. Nebraska, San Diego, Iowa State, American 11. Florida, UCF, Florida State, Kennesaw State A couple comments after a quick review of your projected bracket: 1. If Creighton is not seeded, they will be sent to either Minnesota or Nebraska. There's no reason to fly them to Western Kentucky. 2. Missouri will most likely be sent to Nebraska for the second year in a row. They are within 400 miles of Lincoln, so I doubt the committee would fly them to Wisconsin. 3. Putting Louisville at Western Kentucky (in place of Creighton) would let you move Michigan to Kentucky. This would help further reduce the number of flights.
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Post by blue-footedbooby on Dec 1, 2019 13:30:25 GMT -5
I was just noticing that only one of ASUs losses (@ colorado ) is to a none tournament bound team. You would think not having any bad losses and two T25 wins would be enough to get a team in. Compared to say a Iowa State which has 5 none tournament team losses and 0 T25 wins. It makes me wonder if maybe the PAC quota is the issue. Who are the Top 25 wins? Figstats shows no Top 50 wins for Arizona State I was referencing AVCA top 25 (WSU x 2).
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Post by blue-footedbooby on Dec 1, 2019 13:39:05 GMT -5
I was just noticing that only one of ASUs losses (@ colorado ) is to a none tournament bound team. You would think not having any bad losses and two T25 wins would be enough to get a team in. Compared to say a Iowa State which has 5 none tournament team losses and 0 T25 wins. It makes me wonder if maybe the PAC quota is the issue. RPI of 59 is probably more of an issue The just released RKPI for Iowa State is 46. ASUs is 58. Is this enough of a difference to out way other factors? If every one of your losses (except the one) is to a hot tourney bound team, I mean, that has to say something.
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