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Post by Sbilo on Dec 1, 2019 7:40:12 GMT -5
The OP bracket makes sense, but it's troubling that of the PAC teams making the tournament, 3 might end up in one regional. And, to make it worse, it's the Stanford regional. And, to make it even worse, it's the teams that finished 1-2-3 in conference. Here's hoping it doesn't shake out that way. Personally, I'd love to see Bajema take Stanford down pre-final 4 I’d love to see a Florida-UDub match up first.. Hall vs Bajema would be fun!
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Dec 1, 2019 7:49:11 GMT -5
So now you have me sweating a Michigan bid out after calling them mostly safe over the last two weeks. I'm here for it. Difference between RKPI and Blue's RPI Futures? When you're in the mostly safe but not a lock -- you have to do something to make yourself a lock. Michigan didn't do that. Then all of a sudden St. John's and Illinois State get hot - boom two more bids are gone. South Dakota also upset in its conference tournament is ahead of Michigan in RPI on the bubble. Illinois then loses to Northwestern and falls out of the T50. You see quite quickly how circumstances can change! Michigan is very fortunate that its RPI held up enough but that's what put them in the mostly safe category anyway!
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Post by jwvolley on Dec 1, 2019 7:54:10 GMT -5
I’m gonna feel bad for South Dakota if they’re out. 26-24, 28-26 and 29-27 set scores in their conference tourney :/ talk about terrible luck
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Post by bball on Dec 1, 2019 8:32:00 GMT -5
Uhm..... I really dont agree with your seeding predictions. I appreciate your work, but I dont think those were too accurate. We shall see
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Post by nakedcrayon on Dec 1, 2019 8:37:08 GMT -5
Trojan Thanks for all of the work you do over the season but especially at the end
The final two seeds to me are down to BYU vs Utah and WKU vs Rice
Going to be interesting if they take BYU both big win and head to head matters. Can’t do that for Rice vs WKU however. Rice has bigger win against Texas and WKU has the head to head twice.
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Post by EyesOfTexas on Dec 1, 2019 8:50:57 GMT -5
How do the RPI and the RKPI compare and what are the differences?
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Post by Wiswell on Dec 1, 2019 8:55:04 GMT -5
Wisconsin has very consistently gotten a Pac 12 in their subregional. And a few times it has been Cal. Last time maybe 2013?
I remember Cal, Oregon, WSU in recent memory.
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Post by Wiswell on Dec 1, 2019 8:55:35 GMT -5
Uhm..... I really dont agree with your seeding predictions. I appreciate your work, but I dont think those were too accurate. We shall see We will see how this ages!
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Dec 1, 2019 9:01:10 GMT -5
I would agree on the 32 at larges. South Dakota is a bit of wildcard because of that RPI, but I agree that is probably isn't good enough to compensate for zero T50 wins.
I also agree that South Carolina is the most vulnerable of those you have making it. I kind of think the last spot comes down to SD, SC, or one of those Horizon teams. Since there are two Horizon teams, it seems difficult to take one w/o the other so they may both be out.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Dec 1, 2019 9:05:50 GMT -5
Tried to make sure this was as 100% accurate as possible - but let me know if anyone sees any errors. Figstats being slightly inaccurate made this a little tougher. I also think the bracket has the least amount of flights possible. I think you can add one more drive-in with Wright State. Wright State could go to any of Penn State, Kentucky, Pittsburgh, or Marquette. Illinois State could go to Wisconsin leaving a spot for Wright State. When doing this a couple weeks ago - Wisconsin could benefit with a weaker subregional (along with Penn State).
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Post by jayj79 on Dec 1, 2019 9:10:34 GMT -5
I would agree on the 32 at larges. South Dakota is a bit of wildcard because of that RPI, but I agree that is probably isn't good enough to compensate for zero T50 wins. I also agree that South Carolina is the most vulnerable of those you have making it. I kind of think the last spot comes down to SD, SC, or one of those Horizon teams. Since there are two Horizon teams, it seems difficult to take one w/o the other so they may both be out. I say kick out the two Big Ten teams on the bubble (there is already enough of them in the tourney anyway) and put in the two Horizon bubble teams. Then swap South Carolina and South Dakota. (this isn't based on any actual data, just my anti-P5 feelings. haha)
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Post by rainbowbadger on Dec 1, 2019 9:13:38 GMT -5
So we had two bid stealers this year? St. John’s and Illinois State?
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Post by Wiswell on Dec 1, 2019 9:14:53 GMT -5
I would agree on the 32 at larges. South Dakota is a bit of wildcard because of that RPI, but I agree that is probably isn't good enough to compensate for zero T50 wins. I also agree that South Carolina is the most vulnerable of those you have making it. I kind of think the last spot comes down to SD, SC, or one of those Horizon teams. Since there are two Horizon teams, it seems difficult to take one w/o the other so they may both be out. I say kick out the two Big Ten teams on the bubble (there is already enough of them in the tourney anyway) and put in the two Horizon bubble teams. Then swap South Carolina and South Dakota. (this isn't based on any actual data, just my anti-P5 feelings. haha) I agree with you on Illinois. 13 losses, no thank you.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Dec 1, 2019 9:33:07 GMT -5
Here is where I have the seeds:
1 Baylor 16 Marquette 9 Kentucky 8 Minnesota 5 Wisconsin 12 Texas A&M 13 Penn State 4 Pittsburgh 3 Texas 14 Utah 11 Hawaii 6 Washington 7 Nebraska 10 Florida 15 BYU 2 Stanford
I kind of expect the unexpected form the committee. My hunch is they are going to value quality wins and how teams have been playing towards the end of the season. I think this will hurt Marquette and I think they may be vulnerable. They have the RPI and quality wins to bring them in - but too many losses in the BE late in the season could put them in jeopardy.
If it wasn't BYU and Utah being such a natural 2nd round matchup - I think the committee would put both in. I think they will ignore this - and put both because of merit. Penn State is the fly in the ointment again this year. No one is going to want them in the regional semi-final (and given their likely subregional, they are about a 95% chance of making the 3rd round). Despite the #16 RPI - I think they will view and seed them better than Marquette, Rice, and Western Kentucky. Do they go ahead of Texas A&M and Hawaii - it is possible? Kentucky will fall below Washington, Nebraska, and Minnesota due to strength of quality wins. Pretty much have to have Kentucky ahead of Florida.
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Post by Wiswell on Dec 1, 2019 9:37:55 GMT -5
Penn State in Pgh regional would be like 3 home weekends and they would embarrassingly outnumber Pitt fans.
So that sounds about right!
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