Final 2019 Bracketology

[trojansc]

Final 2019 Bracketology

NCAA Selection Show - Sunday Dec. 1st, 2019 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU

Final RPI Numbers are from bluepenquin

Accuracy: In the previous 7 years, I've missed on 6 at-large teams, and 8 seeded teams. So, about 1 at-large and 1-seed per year. Complete history in 2nd post of this thread.

16 Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds

1 Baylor

2 Stanford

3 Texas

4 Pittsburgh

5 Wisconsin

6 Kentucky

7 Washington

8 Nebraska

9 Minnesota

10 Florida

11 Marquette

12 Hawaii

13 Texas A&M

14 Penn State

15 BYU

16 Rice

Just Missed it:
Western Kentucky, Utah, Creighton, Purdue

Seeding Rationale

Baylor is the clear #1 from what I'm seeing. Stanford holds down the 2 spot because of its quality wins and brutal non-conference schedule. Texas comes in at #3 and would probably be #2 if they didn't have a H2H loss to Stanford. Pittsburgh won the final regional hosting spot at #4 on a few factors -- but of course it is very important they are ahead of Wisconsin in RPI. They can pretty much match Wisconsin's quality wins in the T25 and T50 category -- but Pittsburgh doesn't have as bad of a loss as Wisconsin had. Pittsburgh is really really fortunate that Louisville was able to finish in the T25.

The rest of the seeds after that seemed relatively clear to me up until 15 and 16. I think the Top 14 are all seeded teams. They could be jumbled around -- but the last two are really the biggest question marks. After throwing out Mizzou - I came to six teams for the final two spots (Rice - Western Kentucky - BYU - Utah - Creighton - Purdue). You could kind of make cases for all of them -- they all have unique characteristics. 

This was really hard for me because if I could pick any of those two -- I wanted both Utah and BYU. I really did. But I just think the committee is only going to give it to one of them -- and I went with BYU. BYU has the H2H and common opponent advantage by beating Stanford -- which I think is pretty huge. I also really found it interesting that Creighton, Purdue, and Utah all had their best win of Kentucky. 

I ended up settling on Rice at #16. This was very tough and I could easily see Western Kentucky or Utah as the first in line to take Rice's place. Rice was the only team that had TWO non-conference Top 25 victories. The committee seems to really emphasize the non-conference for seeded teams - and Rice has that ginormous win over Texas, which might be just better enough than the bubble seeds' wins over Kentucky. I have very little confidence in this at all - and in all honesty I wanted to put Utah here. But Utah had some sketchy losses and I'm just not seeing two hosts in Utah. And of course -- how do you not mention WKU who beat Rice twice, on Rice's home court, and is just one spot behind them?! Well - WKU's best non-conference win is Northern Kentucky -- so that wasn't good enough for me. It was really close. Will be interesting to see what the committee decides.

---

Who's in? 64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference

Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams

Atlantic 10 - Dayton
AAC - UCF || At-Large: Cincinnati
ACC - Pittsburgh  || At-Large: Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State 
America East - Albany
Atlantic Sun - Kennesaw State
Big East - St. John's || At-Large: Marquette, Creighton
Big Ten - Wisconsin  || At-Large: Nebraska, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan
Big 12 - Texas || At-Large: Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Big Sky - Northern Colorado
Big South - Winthrop
Big West - Hawaii || At-Large: UCSB, Cal Poly
Colonial - Towson
Conference USA - Western Kentucky || At-Large: Rice
Horizon - Northern Kentucky || At-Large: Wright State
Ivy League - Princeton
Metro Atlantic - Fairfield
Mid-American - Ball State
Mid-Eastern - Howard
Missouri Valley - Illinois State || At-Large: Northern Iowa
Mountain West - Colorado State
Northeast - Sacred Heart
Ohio Valley- SE Missouri State
Pacific-12- Stanford || At-Large: Washington, Utah, Southern California, UCLA, California, Washington State
Patriot - American
Southeastern - Kentucky || At-Large: Florida, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina
Southland - Stephen F. Austin
Southern - Samford
Summit - Denver
Sun Belt - Texas State
Southwestern - Alabama State
Western Athletic- New Mexico State

West Coast - San Diego  || At-Large: BYU

Four before the last 4 in: Wright State, Washington State, California, Northern Iowa
Last 4 in: Iowa State, Illinois, Michigan, South Carolina
First 4 out: South Dakota, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Virginia Commonwealth

Next 4 out: Pepperdine, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Tech, Arizona State, 

Rationale for Bubble Teams

Well. I would be pretty surprised if someone from the "Four before the last Four" gets left out, and I would be pretty surprised if someone from the "Next Four Out" gets a tournament bid. That was a lot much easier than trying to separate the next group of teams. Wright State has the RPI and quality victories -- including an OOC at Notre Dame. Washington State has by far the best victories but a terrible S.O.S -- the nonconference is killing them. But Wazzu should be safe. California has some good wins as well and Northern Iowa has RPI distance in its favor. I just cannot see how the committee is going to leave out any of those teams.

These are the 8 final teams that were the hardest decisions (RPI Futures rank):

38. South Dakota
42. Michigan
43. Green Bay
44. South Carolina
46. Iowa State
47. VCU
51. Illinois
55. Milwaukee

I decided that of all of those eight teams -- Iowa State was actually my favorite. Iowa State has 3 T50 wins -- Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Northern Iowa. Having two H2H wins -- both being out of conference -- against other bubble teams -- was enough to convince me that Iowa State will get in. And of my least favorite -- Virginia Commonwealth. VCU just didn't have much to sell - they needed an RPI around where South Dakota is to probably get a bid. So, that helped a little bit. I now had 6 teams  -- and just three bids from that grouping.

Of those 6 - my favorite was actually Illinois. Illinois had beaten Marquette in the non-conference, which is the best OOC win of this grouping. They also had another big win AT Purdue. Two top 25 wins -- and one of which is on the road -- I don't think Illinois should be left out. What qualifies South Dakota being ahead of Illinois, for example? This is where the committee needs to look beyond RPI.

After I decided Illinois was in -- Michigan was the next team on my list. This was tough -- because Michigan and South Carolina look pretty similar when you put their team sheets next to each other. But I liked that Michigan won a good OOC game -- while also beating Illinois twice. Even if Illinois isn't T50 as blue has them at 51 -- it still counts as two quality wins against a team receiving an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Michigan's also really fortunate that their RPI held up enough at 42. This is a major factor towards them getting into the dance.

So now - we're left with just one last bid. South Dakota? South Carolina? Green Bay? or Milwaukee? It's really really tough. South Dakota, sadly, did nothing significant. Their best win is Wyoming -- who won't be in the tournament and is not even in at-large consideration. South Carolina did not lose a match to anyone outside of the T50 RPI all season -- but they split with Georgia and that's their best argument for getting into the tournament. Green Bay has a much better RPI than Milwaukee and has three top 50 wins -- a good record in that category compared to the other teams. But those teams are all 40s in RPI -- so how much respect will Green Bay get for that? Last is Milwaukee. Milwaukee's kind of a hot mess -- but you've gotta have them here? They beat Green Bay THREE TIMES. They also beat Northern Kentucky & Wright State. That gives them 5 T50 wins -- but all of them are conference foes and Milwaukee also has an astronomically bad loss to Eastern Washington, who is ~290(!) in RPI.

After all that -- I decided to settle on South Carolina. They won at Georgia, which is the best win of any of the remaining teams, and also they did it on the road. I could easily be wrong here. South Dakota does have an RPI advantage. Green Bay has 3 T50 and Milwaukee has 5 T50 wins -- while Carolina has just one. But Carolina is also doesn't have much bad about them like mentioned above. It's so hard when you get to this point because you just want to know what the committee is looking for or talking about when it comes to these at-large bids. They could choose to emphasize one criteria over another and we're not quite sure which. I will not be surprised if I see Milwaukee, South Dakota, or Green Bay's name called on Selection Sunday. 

Final Predicted NCAA Tournament Bracket

Waco Regional

(1) Baylor vs. Alabama State
Texas State vs. Cal Poly

(16) Rice vs. American
Colorado State vs. Washington State

(8) Nebraska vs. Denver
Northern Iowa vs. Missouri

(9) Minnesota vs. Princeton
Creighton vs. Samford


Pittsburgh Regional

(4) Pittsburgh vs. Howard
Cincinnati vs. Michigan

(13) Texas A&M vs. St. John's
Oklahoma vs. Western Kentucky

(5) Wisconsin vs. Ball State
Notre Dame vs. California

(12) Hawaii vs. Northern Colorado
Southern California vs. Georgia


Palo Alto Regional

(2) Stanford vs. Albany
UC Santa Barbara vs. South Carolina

(15) BYU vs. New Mexico State
Utah vs. Illinois

(7) Washington vs. Winthrop
San Diego vs. Wright State

(10) Florida vs. Kennesaw State
UCF vs. Florida State

Austin Regional

(3) Texas vs. Fairfield
Stephen F. Austin vs. UCLA

(14) Penn State vs. Sacred Heart
Dayton vs. Towson

(6) Kentucky vs. SE Missouri State
Louisville vs. Northern Kentucky

(11) Marquette vs. Illinois State
Purdue vs. Iowa State

[trojansc]

Bracketology History

Missed At-Large bids (6 in 7 years)
-Perfect in 2012, 2013, and 2016.

2014
Committee Pick: Michigan State
My Pick: Virginia Tech

2015
Committee Pick: Northern Iowa
My Pick: Pittsburgh

2017
Committee Pick: High Point and LSU
My Pick: Maryland and North Texas

2018
Committee Pick: Denver and Hawaii
My Pick: Kansas and Kansas State

---

Missed Seeds (8 in 7 years)
-Only perfect in 2014.

2012
Committee Pick: Iowa State and Kentucky
My Pick: Hawaii and Tennessee

2013
Committee Pick: Wisconsin and Illinois
My Pick: Marquette and Florida State

2015
Committee Pick: Creighton
My Pick: Missouri

2016
Committee Pick: Penn State
My Pick: San Diego

2017
Committee pIck: Wichita State
My Pick: Kansas

2018
Committee pick: Marquette
My Pick: Baylor

[trojansc]

Bubble Team Profiles

(RPI numbers from bluepenquin )

Atlantic 10

Virginia Commonwealth (24-6, 16-0 A10)

RPI: 47
Non-Conference RPI: 68
SOS rank: 125
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-1
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-3
Significant Wins: 41 Dayton
Significant Losses: None
Last 10 games: 9-1

ACC

Georgia Tech (21-8, 14-4 ACC)

RPI: 56
Non-Conference RPI: 95
SOS rank: 62
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-2
Record against 26-50 RPI: 2-4
Record against 51-100 RPI: 2-1
Significant Wins: 32 Notre Dame, 37 Florida State
Significant Losses: 131 Boston College
Last 10 games: 9-1

Big Ten

Illinois (15-12, 10-8 B1G)

RPI: 51
Non-Conference RPI: 53
SOS rank: 22
Record against 1-25 RPI: 2-8
Record against 26-50 RPI: 0-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 7-2
Significant Wins: 12 Marquette, 21 Purdue
Significant Losses: 105 Northwestern
Last 10 games: 6-4

Michigan (20-10, 13-7 B1G)
RPI: 42
Non-Conference RPI: 51
SOS rank: 53
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-7
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 9-0
Significant Wins: 32 Notre Dame, 51 Illinois (x2)
Significant Losses: None
Last 10 games: 7-3

Missouri Valley

Northern Iowa (24-10, 15-1 MVC)
RPI: 39
Non-Conference RPI: 10
SOS rank: 58
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-5
Record against 26-50 RPI: 2-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 5-0
Significant Wins: 30 Texas State, 44 Green Bay
Significant Losses: None
Last 10 games: 9-1


Horizon

Milwaukee (26-6, 12-4 Horizon)

RPI: 55
Non-Conference RPI: 82
SOS rank: 202
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-0
Record against 26-50 RPI: 5-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 2-0
Significant Wins: 41 Northern Kentucky, 44 Green Bay(x3), 46 Wright State
Significant Losses: 119 Oakland(x2), 293 Eastern Washington
Last 10 games: 6-4

Wright State (24-5, 13-3 Horizon)
RPI: 45
Non-Conference RPI: 64
SOS rank: 72
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-0
Record against 26-50 RPI: 4-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-3
Significant Wins: 32 Notre Dame, 41 Northern Kentucky, 44 Green Bay
Significant Losses: None
Last 10 games: 8-2

Green Bay (21-9, 12-4 Horizon)
RPI: 43
Non-Conference RPI: 61
SOS rank: 61
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-2
Record against 26-50 RPI: 3-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-3
Significant Wins: 41 Northern Kentucky(x2), 46 Wright State
Significant Losses: 151 Cleveland State, 173 North Dakota State
Last 10 games: 7-3

Pac-12

California (20-10, 10-10 Pac-12)

RPI: 49
Non-Conference RPI: 25
SOS rank: 89
Record against 1-25 RPI: 2-2
Record against 26-50 RPI: 3-4
Record against 51-100 RPI: 5-2
Significant Wins: 16 Utah, 25 Colorado State
Significant Losses: None
Last 10 games: 3-7

Washington State (23-9, 12-8 Pac-12)
RPI: 48
Non-Conference RPI: 69
SOS rank: 160
Record against 1-25 RPI: 3-2
Record against 26-50 RPI: 2-5
Record against 51-100 RPI: 6-2
Significant Wins: 8 Washington(x2), 16 Utah, 27 Southern California(x2)
Significant Losses: None
Last 10 games: 5-5

SEC

South Carolina (19-11, 11-7 SEC)

RPI: 45
Non-Conference RPI: 40
SOS rank: 35
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-9
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-1
Record against 51-100 RPI: 5-0
Significant Wins: 33 Georgia
Significant Losses: NONE
Last 10 games: 7-3

Summit

South Dakota (27-2, 16-0 Summit)
RPI: 38
Non-Conference RPI: 38
SOS rank: 209
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-0
Record against 26-50 RPI: 0-1
Record against 51-100 RPI: 5-0
Significant Wins: None
Significant Losses: 124 Nebraska Omaha
Last 10 games: 9-1

Sun Belt

Coastal Carolina (24-6, 13-3 Sun Belt)

RPI: 54
Non-Conference RPI: 62
SOS rank: 152
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-0
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-1
Significant Wins: 36 Towson
Significant Losses: 132 UT Arlington, 149 Lipscomb
Last 10 games: 6-4

WCC

Pepperdine (18-11, 14-4 WCC)

RPI: 52
Non-Conference RPI: 86
SOS rank: 57
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-4
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 1-1
Significant Wins: 26 San Diego
Significant Losses: 130 North Texas, 142 Saint Mary's
Last 10 games: 7-3

[trojansc]

Tried to make sure this was as 100% accurate as possible - but let me know if anyone sees any errors. Figstats being slightly inaccurate made this a little tougher. I also think the bracket has the least amount of flights possible.

[jwvolley]

Not that I’m complaining but ima need you to explain that 6-8 portion. If the argument for Kentucky being there is RPI(I assume), why would Washington be ahead of Nebraska when they are behind them in RPI, have two more losses, lost within the past 24 hours and Nebraska’s only lost to Stanford, Wisconsin and a nearly seeded Purdue?

[trojansc]

Dec 1, 2019 5:56:49 GMT -5 jwvolley said:

Not that I’m complaining but ima need you to explain that 6-8 portion. If the argument for Kentucky being there is RPI(I assume), why would Washington be ahead of Nebraska when they are behind them in RPI, have two more losses, lost within the past 24 hours and Nebraska’s only lost to Stanford, Wisconsin and a nearly seeded Purdue?

I almost still put Washington at 6 ahead of Kentucky.

Washington can match Nebraska's best OOC win (they both beat Creighton) but Washington also beat Wisconsin(x2) and Stanford. Washington went 3-0 vs. Stanford/Wisconsin while Nebraska went 0-3 against Stanford/Wisconsin. Washington has some baggage with worse losses -- but you can't look at the significant wins and common opponents and not see Washington with a huge advantage there.

I still wouldn't be surprised at any 6-9 order though.

[jwvolley]

Dec 1, 2019 6:07:40 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Dec 1, 2019 5:56:49 GMT -5 jwvolley said:

Not that I’m complaining but ima need you to explain that 6-8 portion. If the argument for Kentucky being there is RPI(I assume), why would Washington be ahead of Nebraska when they are behind them in RPI, have two more losses, lost within the past 24 hours and Nebraska’s only lost to Stanford, Wisconsin and a nearly seeded Purdue?

I almost still put Washington at 6 ahead of Kentucky.

Washington can match Nebraska's best OOC win (they both beat Creighton) but Washington also beat Wisconsin(x2) and Stanford. Washington went 3-0 vs. Stanford/Wisconsin while Nebraska went 0-3 against Stanford/Wisconsin. Washington has some baggage with worse losses -- but you can't look at the significant wins and common opponents and not see Washington with a huge advantage there.

I still wouldn't be surprised at any 6-9 order though.

Fair enough! Not sure I see it playing out that way but at least you have reasoning. Kentucky at 6 is ridiculous considering some of their losses but alas.

[nuclearbdgr]

Thank you for pulling this together, it is much appreciated.

[trojansc]

Dec 1, 2019 6:40:02 GMT -5 jwvolley said:

Dec 1, 2019 6:07:40 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I almost still put Washington at 6 ahead of Kentucky.

Washington can match Nebraska's best OOC win (they both beat Creighton) but Washington also beat Wisconsin(x2) and Stanford. Washington went 3-0 vs. Stanford/Wisconsin while Nebraska went 0-3 against Stanford/Wisconsin. Washington has some baggage with worse losses -- but you can't look at the significant wins and common opponents and not see Washington with a huge advantage there.

I still wouldn't be surprised at any 6-9 order though.

Fair enough! Not sure I see it playing out that way but at least you have reasoning. Kentucky at 6 is ridiculous considering some of their losses but alas.

Crazy part is I don't think the committee has ever seeded Kentucky worse than I have. That includes giving them a seed in 2012 (I didn't think they should) and also in 2017 when Top-4 hosting became a thing. I went with Nebraska as the #4 seed -- but Kentucky got it.

I will be very content knowing I am wrong on Kentucky!

[b1ghusker]

Looking at the Palo Alto regional Stanford has to face BYU who beat them at home, and might face Washington who also beat them with Plummer in. Should be a lot of fun to watch, Great Work!

[tomclen]

The OP bracket makes sense, but it's troubling that of the PAC teams making the tournament, 3 might end up in one regional.

And, to make it worse, it's the Stanford regional.

And, to make it even worse, it's the teams that finished 1-2-3 in conference.

Here's hoping it doesn't shake out that way.

[trojansc]

Dec 1, 2019 7:23:59 GMT -5 tomclen said:

The OP bracket makes sense, but it's troubling that of the PAC teams making the tournament, 3 might end up in one regional.

And, to make it worse, it's the Stanford regional.

And, to make it even worse, it's the teams that finished 1-2-3 in conference.

Here's hoping it doesn't shake out that way.

I didn't even notice that. But I do remember 2010. The Pac-12 had 4 teams in the elite 8 -- all on the same side of the backet. USC/Stanford and Cal/Washington. Cal then beat USC before Penn State beat Cal. It would have been a lot better to split them up on both sides of the bracket and watch Penn State have to battle through 3 of those teams to win the Title instead of one.

[jwvolley]

Dec 1, 2019 7:23:59 GMT -5 tomclen said:

The OP bracket makes sense, but it's troubling that of the PAC teams making the tournament, 3 might end up in one regional.

And, to make it worse, it's the Stanford regional.

And, to make it even worse, it's the teams that finished 1-2-3 in conference.

Here's hoping it doesn't shake out that way.

Personally, I'd love to see Bajema take Stanford down pre-final 4

[bprtbone]

So now you have me sweating a Michigan bid out after calling them mostly safe over the last two weeks. I'm here for it.

Difference between RKPI and Blue's RPI Futures?

[Sbilo]

Fantastic work again, Trojan!

I think its highly unlikely the top 3 PAC 12 teams will go to the same regional.

Stanford will probably end up as the 3rd seed after Baylor and Texas with those losses to Washington, BYU, Minnesota and UCLA...