Bracketology (11/6)

[azsker]

I am really excited to see how ASU’s season plays out. I really think they could cause some chaos, but with that given it’s such a high risk high reward system. They aren’t immune to being upset in the 2nd round.

The SEC and the amount of teams they get will be frustrating.

[horns1]

Nov 8, 2024 14:02:24 GMT -5 azsker said:

I am really excited to see how ASU’s season plays out. I really think they could cause some chaos, but with that given it’s such a high risk high reward system. They aren’t immune to being upset in the 2nd round.

The SEC and the amount of teams they get will be frustrating.

I don't understand why folks keep posting these type of comments.  Would you say the same thing if it was the ACC or B1G?

Committee will invite those teams who they believe have the best resumes' and other power ratings.

[n00b]

Nov 8, 2024 14:58:03 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 8, 2024 14:02:24 GMT -5 azsker said:

I am really excited to see how ASU’s season plays out. I really think they could cause some chaos, but with that given it’s such a high risk high reward system. They aren’t immune to being upset in the 2nd round.

The SEC and the amount of teams they get will be frustrating.

I don't understand why folks keep posting these type of comments.  Would you say the same thing if it was the ACC or B1G?

Committee will invite those teams who they believe have the best resumes' and other power ratings.

I think it’s different. The group of LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Tennessee was collectively 0-5 against Top 50 nonconference opponents. Meaning they only even SCHEDULED one each. And went winless. I don’t think there are currently Big Ten bubble teams with that kind of resume.

[horns1]

Nov 8, 2024 15:05:21 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 8, 2024 14:58:03 GMT -5 horns1 said:

I don't understand why folks keep posting these type of comments.  Would you say the same thing if it was the ACC or B1G?

Committee will invite those teams who they believe have the best resumes' and other power ratings.

I think it’s different. The group of LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Tennessee was collectively 0-5 against Top 50 nonconference opponents. Meaning they only even SCHEDULED one each. And went winless. I don’t think there are currently Big Ten bubble teams with that kind of resume.

LSU has a loss at RPI #18 Baylor.  Tennessee lost to Top 5 Penn State and also played UCLA (who is currently at #61 in RPI).

RPI 46 Michigan only scheduled North Carolina and lost.  So, there's a B1G bubble team with one RPI Top 50 opponent.  Their next best non-conference opponent was Notre Dame with a current RPI of 86.

I guess the committee has to look beyond just one non-conference opponent.  Not sure how ma

[n00b]

Nov 8, 2024 15:26:35 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 8, 2024 15:05:21 GMT -5 n00b said:

I think it’s different. The group of LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Tennessee was collectively 0-5 against Top 50 nonconference opponents. Meaning they only even SCHEDULED one each. And went winless. I don’t think there are currently Big Ten bubble teams with that kind of resume.

LSU has a loss at RPI #18 Baylor.  Tennessee lost to Top 5 Penn State and also played UCLA (who is currently at #61 in RPI).

RPI 46 Michigan only scheduled North Carolina and lost.  So, there's a B1G bubble team with one RPI Top 50 opponent.  Their next best non-conference opponent was Notre Dame with a current RPI of 86.

I guess the committee has to look beyond just one non-conference opponent.  Not sure how ma

Sure, I agree about Michigan. But trojan doesn’t even have them as one of the first four out. While he has Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Arkansas all in the field.

[horns1]

Nov 8, 2024 15:29:09 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 8, 2024 15:26:35 GMT -5 horns1 said:

LSU has a loss at RPI #18 Baylor.  Tennessee lost to Top 5 Penn State and also played UCLA (who is currently at #61 in RPI).

RPI 46 Michigan only scheduled North Carolina and lost.  So, there's a B1G bubble team with one RPI Top 50 opponent.  Their next best non-conference opponent was Notre Dame with a current RPI of 86.

I guess the committee has to look beyond just one non-conference opponent.  Not sure how ma

Sure, I agree about Michigan. But trojan doesn’t even have them as one of the first four out. While he has Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Arkansas all in the field.

And, that's probably because Michigan's non-conference opponents collectively aren't as strong as those of the SEC schools you listed.

[hammer]

Nov 8, 2024 15:39:20 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 8, 2024 15:29:09 GMT -5 n00b said:

Sure, I agree about Michigan. But trojan doesn’t even have them as one of the first four out. While he has Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Arkansas all in the field.

And, that's probably because Michigan's non-conference opponents collectively aren't as strong as those of the SEC schools you listed.

I'm trying to think of a color that might define Michigan's season up to this point in time ...

[trojansc]

I can post the data later, but in particular the committee has done some quite shady things regarding SEC bubble teams.

2021 Ole Miss - awful S.O.S, bad RPI (mid-50s) and somehow the committee said they WEREN’T a last 4 in team (so, safely in the tournament???) most people didnt even think Ole Miss was getting in, let alone safely in

2022 Auburn and Tennessee - consensus seemed to be one might get in, probably not both, possibly neither. Both had awful S.O.S’s again. Tennessee lost in the last week to Alabama, a really bad loss. Tennessee finished with an RPI in the mid-50s, I want to say like 56? Somehow, AGAIN, the committee did not include Tennessee as a “last 4 in”. Safely being in the tournament was confusing to say the least.

Also, Florida being seeded over Miami-FL was shady work (2021).

So, part of my meme’ing the SEC is that they’ve caught some real breaks recently and its not like their tournament profiles were even great to where you’d forgive the bad RPI and S.O.S and nonconference performances.

And I refuse to put faith that the committee will reward the right teams when they gave at-large bids to Stephen F. Austin and Ball State in recent years.

[trojansc]

What made me most upset re: 2022 Tennessee was that in the next year, 2023 Kansas State, who had a basically an equivalent RPI, was left out of the tournament.

K State actually had big time wins, sweeps over BYU and Texas. Way better than what Tennessee did. That was ignored to give a SFA team a bid who could take beat anyone with an RPI better than ~75.

So mid-SEC teams with 50s RPIs and not as great wins are safely in, while K State gets left out. Dumb.

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 8, 2024 15:59:44 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I can post the data later, but in particular the committee has done some quite shady things regarding SEC bubble teams.

2021 Ole Miss - awful S.O.S, bad RPI (mid-50s) and somehow the committee said they WEREN’T a last 4 in team (so, safely in the tournament???) most people didnt even think Ole Miss was getting in, let alone safely in

2022 Auburn and Tennessee - consensus seemed to be one might get in, probably not both, possibly neither. Both had awful S.O.S’s again. Tennessee lost in the last week to Alabama, a really bad loss. Tennessee finished with an RPI in the mid-50s, I want to say like 56? Somehow, AGAIN, the committee did not include Tennessee as a “last 4 in”. Safely being in the tournament was confusing to say the least.

Also, Florida being seeded over Miami-FL was shady work (2021).

So, part of my meme’ing the SEC is that they’ve caught some real breaks recently and its not like their tournament profiles were even great to where you’d forgive the bad RPI and S.O.S and nonconference performances.

And I refuse to put faith that the committee will reward the right teams when they gave at-large bids to Stephen F. Austin and Ball State in recent years.

The SEC getting special treatment in terms of SOS (and particularly OOC SOS) is ridiculous. The single round-robin and short conference schedule is even hiding it due to RPI ridiculousness.

[trojansc]

Nov 8, 2024 16:22:53 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

The SEC getting special treatment in terms of SOS (and particularly OOC SOS) is ridiculous. The single round-robin and short conference schedule is even hiding it due to RPI ridiculousness.

Ugh, this also just reminded me that Syracuse who had an RPI over 10 spots better than Ole Miss that year had 3 good non-conference wins, incl. a T25 win against Mississippi State (who Ole Miss lost to!!!) Syracuse getting snubbed that year was worse than USC.

[n00b]

Nov 8, 2024 16:30:59 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 8, 2024 16:22:53 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

The SEC getting special treatment in terms of SOS (and particularly OOC SOS) is ridiculous. The single round-robin and short conference schedule is even hiding it due to RPI ridiculousness.

Ugh, this also just reminded me that Syracuse who had an RPI over 10 spots better than Ole Miss that year had 3 good non-conference wins, incl. a T25 win against Mississippi State (who Ole Miss lost to!!!) Syracuse getting snubbed that year was worse than USC.

See, this one annoys me much more than the Kansas St omission. The committee and selection criteria should incentivize maximizing the number of head-to-head points of reference to make selections easier. Too often teams are rewarded for taking no risk and playing the easiest schedule possible.

If I remember correctly, K State had a TERRIBLE non-conference resume and was nowhere near the bubble before springing a couple of huge wins.

[trojansc]

Nov 8, 2024 16:35:45 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 8, 2024 16:30:59 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Ugh, this also just reminded me that Syracuse who had an RPI over 10 spots better than Ole Miss that year had 3 good non-conference wins, incl. a T25 win against Mississippi State (who Ole Miss lost to!!!) Syracuse getting snubbed that year was worse than USC.

See, this one annoys me much more than the Kansas St omission. The committee and selection criteria should incentivize maximizing the number of head-to-head points of reference to make selections easier. Too often teams are rewarded for taking no risk and playing the easiest schedule possible.

If I remember correctly, K State had a TERRIBLE non-conference resume and was nowhere near the bubble before springing a couple of huge wins.

Which is fair. I think it's fair to be critical of K-State, though very few, if any in a given season, have the collection fo wins that K-State had. I would not nearly be up in arms as much IF they had chosen to given the bid to NC State (better RPI, huge win over Louisville) St. John's (better RPI, 2x T25 wins), UCLA, etc. Instead... they chose SFA.

It's the fact that the committee keeps giving at-large bids to: 2019 VCU, 2022 Ball State, 2023 Stephen F. Austin... Teams that did not win anything in the non-conference. Between those three at-large bids, they had two Top 50 wins (VCU was over a 40-ish Dayton team, Ball State was over a 40-ish Bowling Green team). They won once against conference foes.

That's what bothers me more than the exclusions. yes, I will rant about the exclusions, but if Texas State was left out in 2022 (like they were) but instead a bid was given to UCLA or Colorado State, that would have been more stomachable.

It just goes to your point that we're giving at-large bids to teams that really do very little to earn it. The committee's last bids don't seem to come from a group of teams that all have something to sell but have question marks. They might instead go to a team with a member on the committee (or at least the RACs)

[GatorsChomp]

I rebuke the Penn State regional

[horns1]

Nov 8, 2024 16:22:53 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Nov 8, 2024 15:59:44 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I can post the data later, but in particular the committee has done some quite shady things regarding SEC bubble teams.

2021 Ole Miss - awful S.O.S, bad RPI (mid-50s) and somehow the committee said they WEREN’T a last 4 in team (so, safely in the tournament???) most people didnt even think Ole Miss was getting in, let alone safely in

2022 Auburn and Tennessee - consensus seemed to be one might get in, probably not both, possibly neither. Both had awful S.O.S’s again. Tennessee lost in the last week to Alabama, a really bad loss. Tennessee finished with an RPI in the mid-50s, I want to say like 56? Somehow, AGAIN, the committee did not include Tennessee as a “last 4 in”. Safely being in the tournament was confusing to say the least.

Also, Florida being seeded over Miami-FL was shady work (2021).

So, part of my meme’ing the SEC is that they’ve caught some real breaks recently and its not like their tournament profiles were even great to where you’d forgive the bad RPI and S.O.S and nonconference performances.

And I refuse to put faith that the committee will reward the right teams when they gave at-large bids to Stephen F. Austin and Ball State in recent years.

The SEC getting special treatment in terms of SOS (and particularly OOC SOS) is ridiculous. The single round-robin and short conference schedule is even hiding it due to RPI ridiculousness.

Not sure I understand that comment.  SEC has 15 schools who field volleyball programs.  They play each other once in conference play, and play 2 schools twice for a total of 16 conference matches.

B1G has 18 schools who all field volleyball programs.  They play each other once in conference play, and play 3 schools twice for a total of 20 conference matches.  Nobody forced the B1G to expand to 18 members.