Bracketology (11/12)

[eyeroll2021]

Nov 14, 2024 17:58:03 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

selection criteria notwithstanding, this is the bracket of the top 32 that I propose:

in brackets are their seeded sub regional team:

1- Pitt (Oklahoma)
8- Wisconsin (Marquette)
9- ASU (Texas A&M)
16- TCU (Missouri)

2- Nebraska (North Carolina)
7- SMU (Washington)
10- Kansas (Florida)
15- Utah (Dayton)

3- Louisville (LMU)
6- Penn State (Miami-FL)
11- Texas (Georgia Tech)
14- Oregon (BYU)

4- Creighton (Florida State)
5- Stanford (Minnesota)
12- Kentucky (USC)
13- Purdue (Baylor)

5 Seeds: Dayton, Missouri, BYU, Baylor
6 Seeds: USC, Florida, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M,
7 Seeds: Marquette, Minnesota, Washington, Miami-FL
8 Seeds: North Carolina, Florida State, LMU, Oklahoma

Agreed

[BigDigEnergy]

Nov 15, 2024 10:07:29 GMT -5 comet said:

trojansc

Is MN pretty set in stone to go to Creighton or are there any other possibilities?

That will depend on our final seeding #. I can see the Gopher as the #5 or #6 seed. If #5, we probably see teams like TCU or Utah. If #6, it may be ASU, Kansas, or Kentucky. 

[bbg95]

Nov 15, 2024 8:54:18 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 14, 2024 19:17:05 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

I do agree it’s H2H and Common Opponent keeping them out. Better wins is not criteria but I’d assume it’s on the mind when the margins are thin and you’ve been discussing said teams for seeds.

And they are necessarily better. And will remain so. Simplify it by cancelling out the shared wins.

Do you seriously think the committee is going to look at a team with wins over #3, #10, #16 against a team with wins over #11, #15, and #19 X3 and say “well it’s somewhat impressive Penn State beat a team we just gave a regional to, but holy cow look at how many times Creighton beat #19!!” They could even change the Big East Tournament to a 10 game H2H against Marquette and I still would not look at their set of wins as stronger.

You also missed the PSU three possible future T50 wins when boasting about Creighton’s dominance over teams ranked 15-50.

I have said MULTIPLE times that Penn State's current and likely future resume is better than Creighton and will give them a top 4 seed.  My response was to you saying that Creighton has the 'worst set of wins we've ever seen' (from a team in consideration for a top 4 seed).  I think this is false.  I have shown that the list of Creighton wins is similar to Penn State this year (and superior to San Diego 2 years ago and Texas last year). I have used Pablo and RPI to make this case - which you want to dismiss.  Instead - you want to cite that Kansas really isn't that good because they bled some sets to Kansas State while not using that standard when talking about PSU sets lost to Yale, Ohio State, Iowa, and Northwestern.

Right now - according to Figstats RPI - Creighton has played a tougher schedule than Penn State while having the same record.  RPI Futures believes that Penn State's SOS will close that gap by the end of the season and Creighton and Penn State will essentially have the same SOS (as calculated by RPI) - and the only likely way for Penn State to not have a worse record is for them to win the rest of their matches.

You continue to downgrade Creighton's quality of wins, schedule and resume as determined by the committee.  Creighton's resume (assuming they win out) will be very solid based on the standards the typical committee uses.  

Well, first of all, neither 2023 Texas nor 2022 San Diego received a 1 seed to host a region, so I'm not sure how relevant they are to this discussion. Second, I'm confused as to why you brought up Kansas losing two sets to Kansas State. I guess triangle mentioned that too, but that was just some additional evidence for their claim that Kansas is struggling. The much bigger issue for Kansas is that they actually lost to Arizona (and ASU, but that's understandable). Penn State may have dropped some sets or even been pushed to five by lesser teams, but they haven't lost to any of them. Also, Kansas' best wins are Utah, TCU, Marquette and Purdue. Those are solid wins, but they don't have a win over a likely regional host (or even a contender) like Penn State does.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 15, 2024 10:24:40 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Nov 15, 2024 8:54:18 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I have said MULTIPLE times that Penn State's current and likely future resume is better than Creighton and will give them a top 4 seed.  My response was to you saying that Creighton has the 'worst set of wins we've ever seen' (from a team in consideration for a top 4 seed).  I think this is false.  I have shown that the list of Creighton wins is similar to Penn State this year (and superior to San Diego 2 years ago and Texas last year). I have used Pablo and RPI to make this case - which you want to dismiss.  Instead - you want to cite that Kansas really isn't that good because they bled some sets to Kansas State while not using that standard when talking about PSU sets lost to Yale, Ohio State, Iowa, and Northwestern.

Right now - according to Figstats RPI - Creighton has played a tougher schedule than Penn State while having the same record.  RPI Futures believes that Penn State's SOS will close that gap by the end of the season and Creighton and Penn State will essentially have the same SOS (as calculated by RPI) - and the only likely way for Penn State to not have a worse record is for them to win the rest of their matches.

You continue to downgrade Creighton's quality of wins, schedule and resume as determined by the committee.  Creighton's resume (assuming they win out) will be very solid based on the standards the typical committee uses.  

Well, first of all, neither 2023 Texas nor 2022 San Diego received a 1 seed to host a region, so I'm not sure how relevant they are to this discussion. Second, I'm confused as to why you brought up Kansas losing two sets to Kansas State. I guess triangle mentioned that too, but that was just some additional evidence for their claim that Kansas is struggling. The much bigger issue for Kansas is that they actually lost to Arizona (and ASU, but that's understandable). Penn State may have dropped some sets or even been pushed to five by lesser teams, but they haven't lost to any of them. Also, Kansas' best wins are Utah, TCU, Marquette and Purdue. Those are solid wins, but they don't have a win over a likely regional host (or even a contender) like Penn State does.

San Diego was very much in the running for top 4 seed in 2022.  Texas won it all last year and were somewhat in the discussion.

Kansas, Purdue and Missouri may end up imploding the last couple weeks - and this could really hurt the quality of Creighton wins.  But as of now - saying that the Kansas win really wasn't all that good since Kansas went 5 sets against Kansas State, but no interest in the 5 set matches that Penn State won - as said by the OP - seems off.  And then to completely discount the Missouri win - because most mentally don't think they are a top 15 team this year.  

[trianglevolleyball]

Nov 15, 2024 10:37:46 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 15, 2024 10:24:40 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Well, first of all, neither 2023 Texas nor 2022 San Diego received a 1 seed to host a region, so I'm not sure how relevant they are to this discussion. Second, I'm confused as to why you brought up Kansas losing two sets to Kansas State. I guess triangle mentioned that too, but that was just some additional evidence for their claim that Kansas is struggling. The much bigger issue for Kansas is that they actually lost to Arizona (and ASU, but that's understandable). Penn State may have dropped some sets or even been pushed to five by lesser teams, but they haven't lost to any of them. Also, Kansas' best wins are Utah, TCU, Marquette and Purdue. Those are solid wins, but they don't have a win over a likely regional host (or even a contender) like Penn State does.

San Diego was very much in the running for top 4 seed in 2022.  Texas won it all last year and were somewhat in the discussion.

Kansas, Purdue and Missouri may end up imploding the last couple weeks - and this could really hurt the quality of Creighton wins.  But as of now - saying that the Kansas win really wasn't all that good since Kansas went 5 sets against Kansas State, but no interest in the 5 set matches that Penn State won - as said by the OP - seems off.  And then to completely discount the Missouri win - because most mentally don't think they are a top 15 team this year.  

You sure do love a good strawman. I never said the Kansas win is weaker because they went five with KSU. I said it is an indication that Kansas’ remaining schedule is not as easy as Trojan made it out to be. It is deceptive to describe a schedule as “two matches against teams above 0.500” while leaving out Kansas’ main rival, a team with a high ceiling that took Kansas to 5 in Lawrence. There is a good chance Kansas loses 2 matches and falls further given their level of play recently.

I can be just as fair to PSU’s vulnerability too. They are much weaker on the road. I think they are more likely to lose away at Maryland, a team they have struggled with for a while, than at home versus Purdue. I think of any team in the top 16, however, Kansas is the most likely to underperform what their RPI Futures predicts.

[trojansc]

Nov 15, 2024 13:05:37 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

Nov 15, 2024 10:37:46 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

San Diego was very much in the running for top 4 seed in 2022.  Texas won it all last year and were somewhat in the discussion.

Kansas, Purdue and Missouri may end up imploding the last couple weeks - and this could really hurt the quality of Creighton wins.  But as of now - saying that the Kansas win really wasn't all that good since Kansas went 5 sets against Kansas State, but no interest in the 5 set matches that Penn State won - as said by the OP - seems off.  And then to completely discount the Missouri win - because most mentally don't think they are a top 15 team this year.  

You sure do love a good strawman. I never said the Kansas win is weaker because they went five with KSU. I said it is an indication that Kansas’ remaining schedule is not as easy as Trojan made it out to be. It is deceptive to describe a schedule as “two matches against teams above 0.500” while leaving out Kansas’ main rival, a team with a high ceiling that took Kansas to 5 in Lawrence. There is a good chance Kansas loses 2 matches and falls further given their level of play recently.

I can be just as fair to PSU’s vulnerability too. They are much weaker on the road. I think they are more likely to lose away at Maryland, a team they have struggled with for a while, than at home versus Purdue. I think of any team in the top 16, however, Kansas is the most likely to underperform what their RPI Futures predicts.

If you are making the point that Kansas is weaker than it appears - that's fine, that's one thing.

If you want to make the point that K-State is much tougher than it appears - we are talking a K-State team that yes went 5 with KU in Lawrence, but they also went 5 twice with West Virginia, went 5 with Iowa State and Cincinnati, lost to Texas Tech and Houston. They are all over the place - but a very beatable team.

I think 3-1 is a fair prediction of Kansas. It's certainly what I would likely do if you asked me to bet money on what was most likely (4-0, 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, 0-4). 4-0 or 2-2 would be next. 1-3 or 0-4 would be last.. They lost two deuce sets on the road at ASU. They mostly took care of business against the weaker teams without too many hiccups.

TCU needs to win out to meet RPI Futures last prediction, and they still play at K-State. While Missouri is hot - thinking they lose to both Florida/Kentucky is highly plausible and would be below RPI futures predictions. I think Kansas is among a group of who could under-achieve predictions, but I think it's also just as likely that Kansas wins out as it is to them going 2-2...

[trojansc]

Nov 15, 2024 10:07:29 GMT -5 comet said:

trojansc

Is MN pretty set in stone to go to Creighton or are there any other possibilities?

Minnesota is a drive-in opportunity to Creighton or Marquette. (i.e if Creighton is a 2 and Minnesota is a 7, it's nearly assured Minnesota is going to Creighton). Missouri is technically a drive-in to Creighton, but I just don't see those two teams ending up on a seed line? I have Missouri as being better than a 7 in most all scenarios.

Now Marquette is interesting. Marquette would absolutely HAVE to win out to get a seed - and they would be a 4-seed. So if Minnesota was a 5, they could go to Marquette, but this all seems extremely unlikely to me. Marquette could even not host 1st/2nd round even if they win out and beat Creighton.

Basically, if Minnesota is a seed-matchup for a 2nd round match, book that trip to Omaha.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 15, 2024 14:32:15 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 15, 2024 13:05:37 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

You sure do love a good strawman. I never said the Kansas win is weaker because they went five with KSU. I said it is an indication that Kansas’ remaining schedule is not as easy as Trojan made it out to be. It is deceptive to describe a schedule as “two matches against teams above 0.500” while leaving out Kansas’ main rival, a team with a high ceiling that took Kansas to 5 in Lawrence. There is a good chance Kansas loses 2 matches and falls further given their level of play recently.

I can be just as fair to PSU’s vulnerability too. They are much weaker on the road. I think they are more likely to lose away at Maryland, a team they have struggled with for a while, than at home versus Purdue. I think of any team in the top 16, however, Kansas is the most likely to underperform what their RPI Futures predicts.

If you are making the point that Kansas is weaker than it appears - that's fine, that's one thing.

If you want to make the point that K-State is much tougher than it appears - we are talking a K-State team that yes went 5 with KU in Lawrence, but they also went 5 twice with West Virginia, went 5 with Iowa State and Cincinnati, lost to Texas Tech and Houston. They are all over the place - but a very beatable team.

I think 3-1 is a fair prediction of Kansas. It's certainly what I would likely do if you asked me to bet money on what was most likely (4-0, 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, 0-4). 4-0 or 2-2 would be next. 1-3 or 0-4 would be last.. They lost two deuce sets on the road at ASU. They mostly took care of business against the weaker teams without too many hiccups.

TCU needs to win out to meet RPI Futures last prediction, and they still play at K-State. While Missouri is hot - thinking they lose to both Florida/Kentucky is highly plausible and would be below RPI futures predictions. I think Kansas is among a group of who could under-achieve predictions, but I think it's also just as likely that Kansas wins out as it is to them going 2-2...

Re Creighton quality wins.  There is some real variance that could happen.

Missouri:  They have home matches against Florida and Kentucky.  If they win both of them (they are favored) and take care of lesser opponents, they are darn close to RPI top 10.  If they lose both - they are probably just outside the top 16.  If they split - they probably are hosting the first two rounds.  Any of these are plausible.  And there is the chance they slip up @ Ole Miss.

Kansas: They have home matches against Baylor and BYU - and then K-State and Iowa State on the road.  If they win 3 or all 4 of them - they are going to land just outside the top 10 in RPI.  If they lose 2 - then they fall to the 15-18 range.  They lose 3 of the final 4 - they move to around #20.  Anything there is possible.

Purdue has 5 challenging matches remaining and could easily win 4 of 5 or lose 4 of 5.  If they lose 3 of their final 5 - they drop out of the top 20.  They win 3 and they are right on the bubble for a hosting seed.  They win all 5 and they are darn close to top 10.  

This only matters if Penn State loses 2 more matches.  

[GatorsChomp]

🕯️🕯️give Florida an upset-able bracket🕯️🕯️

[boxcariii]

Nov 15, 2024 16:16:12 GMT -5 GatorsChomp said:

🕯️🕯️give Florida an upset-able bracket🕯️🕯️

Give me Mizzou over Florida this evening though.   PTW and all.

[GatorsChomp]

Nov 15, 2024 17:09:09 GMT -5 boxcariii said:

Nov 15, 2024 16:16:12 GMT -5 GatorsChomp said:

🕯️🕯️give Florida an upset-able bracket🕯️🕯️

Give me Mizzou over Florida this evening though.   PTW and all.

Now who said all that…

[trojansc]

Today's big matches

Illinois at Penn State - Illinois isn't mathematically out of the race to host as a Top 16 seed - but this would be a must win if they want to do so. Penn State playing for a regional. I expect a PSU sweep - but maybe Terry gets them a set?

Miami-FL at SMU - Miami-FL can improve its "seed" but I don't see how they realistically get into top 16 hosting discussion. SMU is looking to maintain its "2 seed" (top 8 team, 5-8 range) - which I have had them at pretty consistently, but I don't see them having any possibility of hosting a regional. Miami-FL isn't even locked to the NCAA Tournament yet - though they'd have to lose out or go 1-5 IMO to realistically miss out on the tournament.

Texas at Auburn - I think Auburn needs one more win to be locked to the tournament. A loss for Texas isn't super impactful just yet. I do wonder how much of these 26-50 losses will matter in this context. Texas has a unique profile.

TCU at Kansas State - Mathematically, a loss eliminates KSU from the tournament. If they won out they could actually be on the bubble. OTOH, I think a loss could cost TCU a top 16 seed.

Florida at Missouri - Could Florida still get a seed? They'd need to win out and hope for some things to go their way.. but I wouldn't say it's not possible at this point. Missouri needs to win this and the Kentucky match IMO to feel like they have a real good shot at a Top 16 seed. They could certainly lose one and be in on the conversation, but, I think they'd miss out.

Arkansas at Ole Miss - I think Ole Miss needs this more. I have had Ole Miss as being one of the SEC teams in more trouble than others (along with Tennessee, South Carolina, and Arkansas) in a few Bracketology editions. The good news - I think the winner has an excellent shot at the tournament. And if it is Ole Miss - at least Arkansas beat them earlier this year.

[buttery]

My likely prediction for Kansas is that we go 3-1 with the hiccup being at K-State. K-State has not beaten us for the last 7 matches and I imagine Carter will want to go out on a high note. Also - that place is not easy to play (ask Texas and BYU last year) and the gym will be more amped than ever for a rivalry game.

Quite frankly, as noble as it is for everyone to debate whether Creighton gets a regional host; I think it’s moot because we all spend way too much time looking at the data and numbers than the committee seems too. And that isn’t a testament to the committee being bad (though they’ve had their handful of questionable decisions over the years), but more a testament to how much time people put into analyzing the RPI Futures, quality wins etc. on this board. vollleytalk’s culture is an extremely data driven one and is impressive among the college sport landscape.

Also, I’ll just say it - I (and most of this board if we’re being honest) would put money on the fact that Penn State/Stanford would get the last regional host slot even if they have worse numbers and quality wins than Creighton because there is a bias in NCAA Volleyball to Power 4 conferences, but particularly now the Big Ten and ACC. Which is warranted - these are the two strongest conferences and get the most eyeballs. Oh also - because they are Penn State and they are Stanford.

Personally, I think Pitt and Nebraska are in a field of their own this year, but Louisville, Penn State, Stanford, SMU, Wisconsin, Creighton, Kansas, Arizona State (yes I said those two, put some respect to the Big 12’s top teams please), and Texas (their record not as indicative of their talent) could wind up in the Final Four easily. The margin between these teams IMO is very small and I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see any of these teams beat one of the other in either the regional final or the Round of 16.

[trojansc]

Nov 15, 2024 18:11:12 GMT -5 buttery said:

I think it’s moot because we all spend way too much time looking at the data and numbers than the committee seems too. And that isn’t a testament to the committee being bad (though they’ve had their handful of questionable decisions over the years), but more a testament to how much time people put into analyzing the RPI Futures, quality wins etc. on this board. vollleytalk’s culture is an extremely data driven one and is impressive among the college sport landscape.

The reason why we are hyper-RPI (data) obsessed is because the committee has made us that way - not the other way around. If you could have a 22 RPI and miss the tournament, or a 68 RPI and make the tournament, things might be different. But through years of their decisions - we know how they select teams, and RPI is just soooooooo important.

The committee's process is not exactly robust or thorough - it's pretty simple. But even when dumbed down, they find ways to make extremely questionable decision.

Like, one of the complaints is that they don't even take the Final RPI into account. How in the world do you put such an emphasis on RPI and then NOT see that Tennessee and Ole Miss fell into the high 50s of RPI on the last week of the season.

[GatorsChomp]

Nov 16, 2024 14:54:24 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 15, 2024 18:11:12 GMT -5 buttery said:

I think it’s moot because we all spend way too much time looking at the data and numbers than the committee seems too. And that isn’t a testament to the committee being bad (though they’ve had their handful of questionable decisions over the years), but more a testament to how much time people put into analyzing the RPI Futures, quality wins etc. on this board. vollleytalk’s culture is an extremely data driven one and is impressive among the college sport landscape.

The reason why we are hyper-RPI (data) obsessed is because the committee has made us that way - not the other way around. If you could have a 22 RPI and miss the tournament, or a 68 RPI and make the tournament, things might be different. But through years of their decisions - we know how they select teams, and RPI is just soooooooo important.

The committee's process is not exactly robust or thorough - it's pretty simple. But even when dumbed down, they find ways to make extremely questionable decision.

Like, one of the complaints is that they don't even take the Final RPI into account. How in the world do you put such an emphasis on RPI and then NOT see that Tennessee and Ole Miss fell into the high 50s of RPI on the last week of the season.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I was under the impression that it was like a pretty well known thing that the last week of play doesn't impact the seedings for the tournament ? Like isn't that a thing?