Bracketology (11/12)

[bruinsgold]

Nov 18, 2024 12:51:46 GMT -5 trojansc said:

KPI continues to love the SEC. Not so crazy about the ACC or Arizona. Nor Pepperdine. 11 teams in the SEC have a KPI of 41 or better. LSU right behind at 52 for team #12.

Let's schedule Alabama an extra (winnable) RPI boosting match in the last week of November!

[hawaiifan89]

Nov 18, 2024 12:38:42 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 18, 2024 12:23:14 GMT -5 hawaiifan89 said:

Is it possible to predict Hawaii’s RPI if they win 2 matches this week? Thanks!

This might be the hardest week to predict because of conference tournaments.

Hawaii is going to lose RPI value even with two wins this week. Fullerton is an RPI killer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hawaii drop anywhere from 2-7 spots if they win twice. If they lose even one, they can go even further down.

Maybe bluepenquin can provide more specifics.

Thank you for your response. That makes total sense as Fullerton is 4-22. I guess Hawaii needs to win both and then hope for some good results from OOC opponents!

[trojansc]

For teams tracking RPI movement: There are sometimes 'gaps' in which teams are closer/further away than they appear. It is not as simple as saying "I'm only two spots or one spot below a team". That could mean a significant gap, or you could be virtually equal.

For example, currently #24 Marquette has a pretty significant lead on #26 Loyola Marymount (.013) #24 Marquette is closer to #17 USC than they are to LMU.

The distance between #34 Miami-FL and #46 NC State is LESS than the distance between Marquette and LMU.

In other words, NC State (mathematically) could jump Miami-FL, who is 12 spots ahead, with less RPI points than it would take for LMU to jump Marquette, who is only 2 spots ahead.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 18, 2024 12:38:42 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 18, 2024 12:23:14 GMT -5 hawaiifan89 said:

Is it possible to predict Hawaii’s RPI if they win 2 matches this week? Thanks!

This might be the hardest week to predict because of conference tournaments.

Hawaii is going to lose RPI value even with two wins this week. Fullerton is an RPI killer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hawaii drop anywhere from 2-7 spots if they win twice. If they lose even one, they can go even further down.

Maybe bluepenquin can provide more specifics.

I don't think they would drop that much.

My guess - Hawaii gets a bid if they win their last 2 matches - win their first match in the tournament, but lose in the finals.  Heck - they have a chance if they lose to Irvine then lose in the BW championship match.  

[WahineFan44]

Nov 18, 2024 15:01:23 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 18, 2024 12:38:42 GMT -5 trojansc said:

This might be the hardest week to predict because of conference tournaments.

Hawaii is going to lose RPI value even with two wins this week. Fullerton is an RPI killer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hawaii drop anywhere from 2-7 spots if they win twice. If they lose even one, they can go even further down.

Maybe bluepenquin can provide more specifics.

I don't think they would drop that much.

My guess - Hawaii gets a bid if they win their last 2 matches - win their first match in the tournament, but lose in the finals.  Heck - they have a chance if they lose to Irvine then lose in the BW championship match.  

I’m assuming Hawai’i has to pray to the gods that
1. SD and Pepperdine stay top 50
2. Riverside doesn’t plunge farther
3. UCSB stays top 100 to avoid another top 100 loss to the committee

[bluepenquin]

Nov 18, 2024 14:24:19 GMT -5 trojansc said:

For example, currently #24 Marquette has a pretty significant lead on #26 Loyola Marymount (.013) #24 Marquette is closer to #17 USC than they are to LMU.

That gap will get bigger when factoring in the BE tournament.  Just count on Marquette finishing in the top 20 and potentially as high at #17 or 18.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 18, 2024 15:03:06 GMT -5 WahineFan44 said:

Nov 18, 2024 15:01:23 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I don't think they would drop that much.

My guess - Hawaii gets a bid if they win their last 2 matches - win their first match in the tournament, but lose in the finals.  Heck - they have a chance if they lose to Irvine then lose in the BW championship match.  

I’m assuming Hawai’i has to pray to the gods that
1. SD and Pepperdine stay top 50
2. Riverside doesn’t plunge farther
3. UCSB stays top 100 to avoid another top 100 loss to the committee

In terms of RPI - #1 could matter, at least hope 1 of them stay in the top 50.  #2 isn't likely to happen.  #3 doesn't matter.

I would assume that a Top 50 RPI along with a win over SMU will be sufficient to make the tournament?  Plus H2H over San Diego.

[trojansc]

Nov 18, 2024 15:05:32 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

That gap will get bigger when factoring in the BE tournament.  Just count on Marquette finishing in the top 20 and potentially as high at #17 or 18.

.... will it?

(i'm just meme'ing around here, I know even a Big East semi loss wouldn't hurt them too much)

[trojansc]

I should have a Bracketology update done by then - but just in case I don't.... Wednesday has some important matches in the middle of the week!

Purdue at Penn State
Northern Iowa at Drake
Florida at Auburn
Minnesota at Wisconsin

[gobigredno1]

Nov 18, 2024 16:51:29 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I should have a Bracketology update done by then - but just in case I don't.... Wednesday has some important matches in the middle of the week!

Purdue at Penn State
Northern Iowa at Drake
Florida at Auburn
Minnesota at Wisconsin

The B1G is heating up