Bracketology (11/12)

[trojansc]

Nov 17, 2024 19:39:46 GMT -5 kaelca said:

Big 12 - Arizona have to win out to make it? Undefeated non con but bad SOS and rough start to conference play but could finish 20-9, 9-9…

If Arizona wins out at this point - I think they're in. One loss and they have a chance but it's in the committee's hands... Two losses and they are for sure out IMO.

Funny enough - and speaking about Auburn - Arizona's non-conference win over ALABAMA could put them in over Auburn. It's a common opponent criteria that Arizona wins.

2x Top 25 wins is rare for the bubble though - and even though both were at home, I think this should give Arizona an edge if they finish with an RPI 50 or better.

[trojansc]

Nov 17, 2024 22:20:09 GMT -5 badgerbyproxy said:

Nov 17, 2024 22:10:32 GMT -5 trojansc said:

So if Auburn loses all three - they are out. If they win just one, they could have:

-1 or 2 Top 25 wins
-3 or 4 Top 50 wins
-An RPI around or better than the cut line
(depending on GA Southern and who their one win comes against)
-One significant loss below 100 in RPI (Alabama) but most teams have one, and many have multiple!

Considering they have a good non-conference win or two in there (FSU and GA Southern), they almost check all of the boxes of primary criteria. However, they WILL lose H2H with like EVERY single SEC bubble team (unless they beat Oklahoma)

Well when you put it THAT way… 😝

It just seems baffling that a team with a late 8-match losing streak would still be in consideration. Even if they beat Oklahoma, they’d be 1-10 in the final stretch of the season and would be no better than 11th in the ACC.

I get that they looked promising the first 5 weeks of the season and had a strong pre-conference showing, but at what point does the committee say “yeah, the wheels fell off the bus many miles ago”?

Trust me - I’m with you. We’ll see how it shakes out. Though it does beg the question, are we okay giving Auburn’s bid away to a UTEP for example if they lose a 3rd time to WKU and have no Top 50 wins (besides maybe Southeastern Louisiana, which……)

I think if the bubble shrinks and it makes sense, cut Auburn for sure. But if not, there’s not a ton of qualified teams just waiting

[badgerbyproxy]

Nov 17, 2024 22:26:29 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 17, 2024 22:20:09 GMT -5 badgerbyproxy said:

Well when you put it THAT way… 😝

It just seems baffling that a team with a late 8-match losing streak would still be in consideration. Even if they beat Oklahoma, they’d be 1-10 in the final stretch of the season and would be no better than 11th in the ACC.

I get that they looked promising the first 5 weeks of the season and had a strong pre-conference showing, but at what point does the committee say “yeah, the wheels fell off the bus many miles ago”?

Trust me - I’m with you. We’ll see how it shakes out. Though it does beg the question, are we okay giving Auburn’s bid away to a UTEP for example if they lose a 3rd time to WKU and have no Top 50 wins (besides maybe Southeastern Louisiana, which……)

I think if the bubble shrinks and it makes sense, cut Auburn for sure. But if not, there’s not a ton of qualified teams just waiting

A completely fair question that makes me grateful I’m not on the selection committee! 😂

Out of curiosity, will you be doing the blind resume challenges again for bubble teams this year?

[trojansc]

For those who aren't aware, Conference Tournaments that give byes or limit their pools sometimes allow for their teams to make big RPI jumps. But this is heavily dependent on RPI matchups, which can vary vastly by conference/seed/etc..

So in South Florida's case, which I mentioned earlier - if they ended up getting a good W/L team in the QF and Semifinals, that loss to Rice in the Finals doesn't hurt that much and it still means they end up with an RPI that is better than where they started before the conference tournament

But they don't. South Florida gets UAB (11-16) in the QFs and then the SFs could be either Tulsa (18-10) or Wichita State (15-13). The combination of that with another loss isn't putting them through.

WKU is getting an absolutely DREADFUL first round matchup, FIU (8-24)

In fact, most of the "bubble" mid-majors aren't getting good RPI matchups to win and lose in finals and make a jump from what I see now.

Georgia Southern is one with some potential though, they could get South Alabama (15-11) and then get Arkansas State (24-4) and lose in the conference Finals and see their RPI improve. Their profile would be so thin though - with maybe 1 Top 50 (like if App State won the conference).

RPI Futures does not include conference tournaments until this point in the year because we don't know the seeding until now and it changes up until the last minute.

[trojansc]

Nov 17, 2024 22:48:35 GMT -5 badgerbyproxy said:

Nov 17, 2024 22:26:29 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Trust me - I’m with you. We’ll see how it shakes out. Though it does beg the question, are we okay giving Auburn’s bid away to a UTEP for example if they lose a 3rd time to WKU and have no Top 50 wins (besides maybe Southeastern Louisiana, which……)

I think if the bubble shrinks and it makes sense, cut Auburn for sure. But if not, there’s not a ton of qualified teams just waiting

A completely fair question that makes me grateful I’m not on the selection committee! 😂

Out of curiosity, will you be doing the blind resume challenges again for bubble teams this year?

My plan was to actually do a blind resume challenge with the last spots for the top 16 seeds this week (they are juicy) and then do a blind resume challenge on around Friday or the last day of the season when I've really narrowed it down.

I also would prefer to do a last 2 in / first 2 out for blind resume. I feel like it's so hard comparing like 8 teams for 4 spots (I think that's what I did last year) and the data stretches the posts here and it's not as easy or clean to look into, but, I could be under-estimating VT's analytical skills.

I actually think I didn't exclude Stephen F. Austin in the blind resume challenge last year and of course SFA got in... LOL.

[c4ndlelight]

Is it just me or does this feel like a "down" year in terms of level of play overall?

Maybe starting to feel the full effects of the lost experience from COVID (and sitting behind COVID seniors)? IDK.

Also, a lot of the underclassmen out there lost a LOT of very important development reps.

[badgerbyproxy]

Nov 17, 2024 22:58:45 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 17, 2024 22:48:35 GMT -5 badgerbyproxy said:

A completely fair question that makes me grateful I’m not on the selection committee! 😂

Out of curiosity, will you be doing the blind resume challenges again for bubble teams this year?

My plan was to actually do a blind resume challenge with the last spots for the top 16 seeds this week (they are juicy) and then do a blind resume challenge on around Friday or the last day of the season when I've really narrowed it down.

I also would prefer to do a last 2 in / first 2 out for blind resume. I feel like it's so hard comparing like 8 teams for 4 spots (I think that's what I did last year) and the data stretches the posts here and it's not as easy or clean to look into, but, I could be under-estimating VT's analytical skills.

I actually think I didn't exclude Stephen F. Austin in the blind resume challenge last year and of course SFA got in... LOL.

Awesome! Thanks for all your hard work with this!

And regarding SFA, the committee couldn’t just blatantly copy you, so they had to make a change somewhere 😝

[hawaiifan89]

Nov 17, 2024 22:53:57 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Georgia Southern is one with some potential though, they could get South Alabama (15-11) and then get Arkansas State (24-4) and lose in the conference Finals and see their RPI improve. Their profile would be so thin though - with maybe 1 Top 50 (like if App State won the conference).

RPI Futures does not include conference tournaments until this point in the year because we don't know the seeding until now and it changes up until the last minute.

The Sun Belt Conference is an interesting one. Last season they had multiple teams on the bubble and this year it’s looking like a one-bid conference. Some of these teams could make a move depending on how they do in this tournament.

As a Hawaii fan, I have my eye on Texas State. They have had an up and down season but have won their last 8 which has helped their RPI and also Hawaii’s. They recently beat an 11-13 James Madison Team twice and moved up in RPI from 88 to 73. If they can beat James Madison again in the Sun Belt Tournament then they would probably face Appalachian State (17-8). Per KPI, Pablo (barely), and Massey, Texas State would be the favorite in this matchup. If they can win these two matches I wonder what their RPI would look like.

Rooting all Hawaii’s non-conference opponents down the stretch! Go Bows!

[volleyball303]

Nov 17, 2024 23:04:24 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Is it just me or does this feel like a "down" year in terms of level of play overall?

Maybe starting to feel the full effects of the lost experience from COVID (and sitting behind COVID seniors)? IDK.

Also, a lot of the underclassmen out there lost a LOT of very important development reps.

I was just thinking the other day while watching USC vs Wisconsin. I was thinking USC teams of the past were better and also not ranked in the top 25.
I do believe the top 2 teams (maybe also Creighton and Louisville) are as good of teams at the top that we have seen in a while.

[badgerbyproxy]

Nov 17, 2024 23:04:24 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Is it just me or does this feel like a "down" year in terms of level of play overall?

Maybe starting to feel the full effects of the lost experience from COVID (and sitting behind COVID seniors)? IDK.

Also, a lot of the underclassmen out there lost a LOT of very important development reps.

It just feels like we’re in a bit of a transition period overall in the sport. Not only with the player experience as you noted (and next year’s gonna be interesting with not be the COVID and 2021 classes going at once), but there’s also a substantial number of P4 teams that have undergone recent coaching transitions.

I don’t have numbers across the entire P4, but at least in the Big 10, 8 of the 18 programs have head coaches who are only in their third year with the program, and a lot of those programs are in “rebuilding” stages for their programs.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 17, 2024 22:21:40 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 17, 2024 19:39:46 GMT -5 kaelca said:

Big 12 - Arizona have to win out to make it? Undefeated non con but bad SOS and rough start to conference play but could finish 20-9, 9-9…

If Arizona wins out at this point - I think they're in. One loss and they have a chance but it's in the committee's hands... Two losses and they are for sure out IMO.

Funny enough - and speaking about Auburn - Arizona's non-conference win over ALABAMA could put them in over Auburn. It's a common opponent criteria that Arizona wins.

2x Top 25 wins is rare for the bubble though - and even though both were at home, I think this should give Arizona an edge if they finish with an RPI 50 or better.

Their remaining schedule is against sub 500 teams - so their SOS is going to get worse.

I agree that 0 losses and they are in and 2 losses they are out.  It is possible that 1 loss and their RPI moves into the mid-50's - and the quality of their wins this year isn't close to Kansas State last year.  Different year - we will have to see.

[hawaiifan89]

Is it possible to predict Hawaii’s RPI if they win 2 matches this week? Thanks!

[trojansc]

Nov 18, 2024 12:23:14 GMT -5 hawaiifan89 said:

Is it possible to predict Hawaii’s RPI if they win 2 matches this week? Thanks!

This might be the hardest week to predict because of conference tournaments.

Hawaii is going to lose RPI value even with two wins this week. Fullerton is an RPI killer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hawaii drop anywhere from 2-7 spots if they win twice. If they lose even one, they can go even further down.

Maybe bluepenquin can provide more specifics.

[trojansc]

KPI continues to love the SEC. Not so crazy about the ACC or Arizona. Nor Pepperdine. 11 teams in the SEC have a KPI of 41 or better. LSU right behind at 52 for team #12.

[Kearney Kingston]

Nov 18, 2024 10:12:05 GMT -5 badgerbyproxy said:

Nov 17, 2024 23:04:24 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Is it just me or does this feel like a "down" year in terms of level of play overall?

Maybe starting to feel the full effects of the lost experience from COVID (and sitting behind COVID seniors)? IDK.

Also, a lot of the underclassmen out there lost a LOT of very important development reps.

It just feels like we’re in a bit of a transition period overall in the sport. Not only with the player experience as you noted (and next year’s gonna be interesting with not be the COVID and 2021 classes going at once), but there’s also a substantial number of P4 teams that have undergone recent coaching transitions.

I don’t have numbers across the entire P4, but at least in the Big 10, 8 of the 18 programs have head coaches who are only in their third year with the program, and a lot of those programs are in “rebuilding” stages for their programs.

Unfortunately, several don’t seem to be “rebuilding”. Of course the Big Ten is a hard place to learn and develop a winning team.