Penultimate Bracketology (11/24)

[austintatious]

Nov 30, 2024 13:39:22 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 30, 2024 13:21:08 GMT -5 buttery said:

I don’t think it’s out of the question that we see Wisconsin over SMU as an #6 and I’m more on board with the Creighton as an #8. And I think that would be ultimately to punitive to Creighton, but you have to start reverse engineering the committee’s rationale and I think they’ll look at quality wins. Edit: Ok I did this and don’t think the committee would pass-up Nebraska-Creighton and yet another Pitt-Wisconsin match-up lol.

I can’t believe the arguments for Creighton as a 4 seed still as you look at the quality wins of the Top 7 and they for sure have the worst. I think it’s easy to simply look at Top 25 wins, but the difference between 1-6, 7-12, and 13-20, and 20-25 in current RPI are significant in my opinion and having 43% of your Top 25 wins vs. a Marquette team that is notably worse in KPI than RPI is hardly a selling point.

They needed to beat Nebraska or Louisville to be in the conversation at this point - they know it, we know it, everybody knows it.

For fun, my guess. I think NCAA considers geography and non-con rivalries a lot:

(1) Pitt (Oklahoma)
(8) Wisconsin (Marquette)
(9) Kentucky (UNC)
(16) Florida (it won’t make sense but from geography hosting purposes it does) (Georgia Tech)

(4) Stanford (LMU)
(5) Louisville (winner of LOU-STAN hosts) (South Dakota State)
(12) Kansas (Missouri)
(13) Oregon (BYU)

(2) Penn State (Florida State)
(7) SMU (Baylor)
(10) Texas (TCU) - they’ll hype Parra return Texas
(15) Purdue (Dayton)

(3) Nebraska (Northern Iowa)
(6) Creighton (Minnesota)
(11) Arizona State (USC)
(14) Utah (Texas A&M)

I agree with a lot of your initial analysis.  But, I just can't fathom the committee dropping Nebraska to #3 overall.

Agree, won't happen. Solid #2

[trojansc]

Nov 30, 2024 13:21:08 GMT -5 buttery said:

I think it’s easy to simply look at Top 25 wins, but the difference between 1-6, 7-12, and 13-20, and 20-25 in current RPI are significant in my opinion and having 43% of your Top 25 wins vs. a Marquette team that is notably worse in KPI than RPI is hardly a selling point.

TCU is even worse in KPI-->RPI than Marquette is. USC is the same distance. Marquette is better than both in KPI - and I think TCU is a serious seed contender, so, I doubt this has any real factor.

[trojansc]

Nov 30, 2024 13:26:43 GMT -5 horns1 said:

The committee had Texas' at #8 in the first reveal even with a loss to Miami FL in September.

Do you have data (or a reason) that supports your theory re: performance since reveal and why that might be more significant/a better process than looking at the data sort of blankly starting on Wed-Fri the week of selection week?

I listen to the committee on the reveals to hear what they say (their comments about ASU's non-conference makes me wonder if non-conference is emphasized by this committee - especially for bubble teams). But it seems you have strong opinions about moving up/down and what has X team done since a reveal, and I'm wondering if some sort of past decisions are influencing why you feel strongly about that.

[trojansc]

Nov 30, 2024 11:30:25 GMT -5 blue10 said:

9. Kentucky
10. Arizona State

this is so bad idek where to begin lol 

This would be my biggest gripe.

You can say yes - Kentucky has a Top 10 win (which is for sure without doubt his reasoning). But, as far as "next best wins" ASU has SIX wins that are better than Kentucky's second-best win. ASU has 6 T25 wins in the range of 13-19. Kentucky is #7 and #22. Kentucky has a loss outside the T50 - ASU has no losses outside the T25.

[horns1]

Nov 30, 2024 14:05:51 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 30, 2024 13:26:43 GMT -5 horns1 said:

The committee had Texas' at #8 in the first reveal even with a loss to Miami FL in September.

Do you have data (or a reason) that supports your theory re: performance since reveal and why that might be more significant/a better process than looking at the data sort of blankly starting on Wed-Fri the week of selection week?

I listen to the committee on the reveals to hear what they say (their comments about ASU's non-conference makes me wonder if non-conference is emphasized by this committee - especially for bubble teams). But it seems you have strong opinions about moving up/down and what has X team done since a reveal, and I'm wondering if some sort of past decisions are influencing why you feel strongly about that.

Some mentioned a few weeks ago that their belief was that the committee would NOT use their previous reveal as a starting point for their eventual final bracket. I disagreed. It would be a huge waste of time and effort if they disregarded their Top 10 rankings from October. Even subconsciously they wouldn’t be able to just forget those rankings as if they never existed and their reasons for the rankings order.

I recall a few seasons ago where Nebraska was Top 4 in one of the committee’s reveal. They didn’t lose after that but fell out of the Top 4 in the final bracket because their schedule was very front-loaded. Hope that’s an accurate recollection of how that played out.

[trojansc]

The trends of recent years are that the committee and I are seeing more and more eye-to-eye in terms of Top 16 seeds than in years previously (I can post some history tomorrow). But that I am missing slightly MORE on at-larges than I was when I started doing this - which is interesting.

Last year - our major disagreements came on they ranked Arkansas and Tennessee both spots higher than I had - and dropped Washington State FOUR spots below where I had them. Washington State had two Top-10 wins (Texas and Oregon) and was given a #13 seed, Arkansas had zero Top-10 wins and was given the #9 seed.

[bbg95]

Nov 30, 2024 13:39:22 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 30, 2024 13:21:08 GMT -5 buttery said:

I don’t think it’s out of the question that we see Wisconsin over SMU as an #6 and I’m more on board with the Creighton as an #8. And I think that would be ultimately to punitive to Creighton, but you have to start reverse engineering the committee’s rationale and I think they’ll look at quality wins. Edit: Ok I did this and don’t think the committee would pass-up Nebraska-Creighton and yet another Pitt-Wisconsin match-up lol.

I can’t believe the arguments for Creighton as a 4 seed still as you look at the quality wins of the Top 7 and they for sure have the worst. I think it’s easy to simply look at Top 25 wins, but the difference between 1-6, 7-12, and 13-20, and 20-25 in current RPI are significant in my opinion and having 43% of your Top 25 wins vs. a Marquette team that is notably worse in KPI than RPI is hardly a selling point.

They needed to beat Nebraska or Louisville to be in the conversation at this point - they know it, we know it, everybody knows it.

For fun, my guess. I think NCAA considers geography and non-con rivalries a lot:

(1) Pitt (Oklahoma)

(4) Stanford (LMU)

(2) Penn State (Florida State)

(3) Nebraska (Northern Iowa)

I agree with a lot of your initial analysis.  But, I just can't fathom the committee dropping Nebraska to #3 overall.

I wouldn't do it, but I can see a semi-reasonable case. They have the same record (the SMU and Wisconsin losses are comparable), and Penn State has the head-to-head win. Actually, now that I look at their bracket, the more questionable selection in my view is ranking Stanford ahead of Louisville.

[trojansc]

Oof. It would be brutal for Ole Miss if they get left out of the tournament.

[jwvolley]

Ole Miss seriously just blew a 13-7 lead in the fifth against Texas in their pursuit of a tournament bid...

[blue10]

Nov 30, 2024 14:59:09 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oof. It would be brutal for Ole Miss if they get left out of the tournament.

no I hope they do lol. You can’t blow a 13-7 lead and 14-10 in the 5th in a match that near guarantees you a tournament bid and complain about getting left out

[Fight On!]

Nov 30, 2024 14:59:09 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oof. It would be brutal for Ole Miss if they get left out of the tournament.

Karma for getting in a couple of years ago when they didn’t deserve it.

[Resident Bitchy Canadian Fan]

Nov 30, 2024 14:59:09 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oof. It would be brutal for Ole Miss if they get left out of the tournament.

they had three chances to get a kill to push them into the tourney and errored on them all. With everything on the line, like how do you do that? It’s what they deserve

[trojansc]

there's something going on in Pittsburgh ya'll

[trojansc]

San Diego may be on the wrong side of the bubble - but they're getting all they can handle from Saint Mary's. They escape to go up 2-0, but, any chance hinges on winning this match.

[Kearney Kingston]

You had Oregon at a #4 and Purdue at a #3. Oregon loses at home to Purdue, wins at USC. Purdue wins at Oregon and at Washington. Does anything change?