|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Aug 31, 2006 16:45:43 GMT -5
I expect the first Pablo rankings for the season to be available probably late Monday or early Tuesday. The first Pablo rankings are always interesting to me because of the question regarding who will be number 1. Unlike the AVCA or other polls, the Pablo #1 is based on actual on-court performance, and expectations do not come into play in any way. Last year, it was Missouri who rode sweeps over Utah, Tennessee, and Wisconsin to debut into the number 1 spot (although Washington took over the spot in week 2). In 2004, Pablo shocked everyone by putting Washington at the top of the opening rating. Although there was a lot of criticism, it was met that week when the Huskies went to LA and beat USC and UCLA (although subsequent losses modified things). However, opening the season near the top bodes well, as Missouri finished the season ranked 6th in Pablo last year (8th in the RichKern poll), whereas Washington was 3rd the year before.
This year, I am trying Pablo rankings earlier than ever. There will likely be some glitches, as not all teams will have two weekends of play, so I can't verify the connectivity all the way around, but I'm still curious to see who comes out on top.
It's tempting to think that Texas has the inside track, but that will depend on what happens this weekend with Wisconsin and Washington. Note that this early in the season, Pablo is going to prefer to see sweeps, so a 5 game match, even against a good team, could dampen the overall rating (as the season bears on and it becomes more evident about the quality of the competition, that will be corrected, though)
I will be out of town this weekend, and won't be able to follow the action, but it's worth thinking about as the weekend progresses.
|
|
|
Post by OverAndUnder on Aug 31, 2006 17:33:40 GMT -5
I think it will be someone crazy and completely ridiculous, a hodgepodged wreck of a team that really has no chance at all of making the Final Four, much less winning the #1 title at the end of the season.
But I'm sure their debut at the top spot will make their coach happy he shaved the goat. ;D ;D
|
|
|
Post by UCSBVball on Aug 31, 2006 17:49:57 GMT -5
Of interest to me (of course) will be where UCSB is ranked after they played strong in the Stanford match.
|
|
|
Post by IdahoBoy on Aug 31, 2006 18:00:18 GMT -5
So... the other polls don't take into account wins on the court?
|
|
|
Post by cdizzle on Aug 31, 2006 18:16:32 GMT -5
No. the other polls are wrong
|
|
|
Post by Ye Olde Dawg on Aug 31, 2006 18:34:06 GMT -5
It's tempting to think that Texas has the inside track, but that will depend on what happens this weekend with Wisconsin and Washington. Note that this early in the season, Pablo is going to prefer to see sweeps, so a 5 game match, even against a good team, could dampen the overall rating (as the season bears on and it becomes more evident about the quality of the competition, that will be corrected, though). I don't know about Wisconsin, but what happens this weekend with Washington is fairly predictable. Between now and the start of conference play, Washington's opponents have been fairly carefully selected. There should be some challenge, but little actual risk of losing. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Nebraska ends up on top. I guess they were sloppy in that San Diego match, but they did sweep--and they're not playing patsies to the same extent as some other teams. If they do more sweeping this weekend, they'll be in a good spot.
|
|
|
Post by Ye Olde Dawg on Aug 31, 2006 18:42:04 GMT -5
So... the other polls don't take into account wins on the court? Pablo isn't a poll; it's, um... an "algorithm". See: www.richkern.com/vb/rankings/PabloFAQ.aspPolls involve voters who take into account subjective things like tradition and last year's performance. Pablo, or a rating symtem like RKPI only considers results on the court.
|
|
|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Aug 31, 2006 19:37:51 GMT -5
So... the other polls don't take into account wins on the court? Not in the first one of the season they don't.
|
|
|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Aug 31, 2006 19:47:01 GMT -5
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Nebraska ends up on top. I guess they were sloppy in that San Diego match, but they did sweep--and they're not playing patsies to the same extent as some other teams. If they do more sweeping this weekend, they'll be in a good spot. I was thinking maybe them or Stanford. But I think one of the teams that are just starting this weekend could slip in there.
|
|
|
Post by IdahoBoy on Aug 31, 2006 19:47:39 GMT -5
So... the other polls don't take into account wins on the court? Not in the first one of the season they don't. Well, yeah, but the thing about the polls is that everything is speculation... Pablo would be crappy without seeing anyone play at all, while the poll at least wouldn't rate everyone even...
|
|
|
Post by StuffU on Aug 31, 2006 19:50:47 GMT -5
With two 5 set matches, I don't expect Hawaii to be anywhere near the Top 10 in the first Pablo.
|
|
|
Post by IdahoBoy on Aug 31, 2006 19:52:02 GMT -5
With two 5 set matches, I don't expect Hawaii to be anywhere near the Top 10 in the first Pablo. If Hawaii had swept handily, they'd still be low... Pablo has issues with Hawaii... I think it's a time-zone calibration problem.
|
|
|
Post by Ye Olde Dawg on Aug 31, 2006 19:57:12 GMT -5
With two 5 set matches, I don't expect Hawaii to be anywhere near the Top 10 in the first Pablo. If Hawaii had swept handily, they'd still be low... Pablo has issues with Hawaii... I think it's a time-zone calibration problem. Well, if they beat Florida, and if Pepperdine beats Texas....
|
|
|
Post by StuffU on Aug 31, 2006 20:04:43 GMT -5
If Hawaii had swept handily, they'd still be low... Pablo has issues with Hawaii... I think it's a time-zone calibration problem. Well, if they beat Florida, and if Pepperdine beats Texas.... Even in that case, I dont expect Hawaii in Pablo's Top 10. Pablo doesn't like 5 gamers. It's pretty much a draw in Pablo. If anything Pepperdine would gain more from the matches than Hawaii would.
|
|
|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Aug 31, 2006 20:39:26 GMT -5
Well, if they beat Florida, and if Pepperdine beats Texas.... Even in that case, I dont expect Hawaii in Pablo's Top 10. Pablo doesn't like 5 gamers. It's pretty much a draw in Pablo. If anything Pepperdine would gain more from the matches than Hawaii would. Recall that the current version of Pablo has extra emphasis on wins, so Hawaii should still fare better than Pepperdine, even given the home court advantage. In the old days when it was just points, this type of win could be better for the loser.
|
|