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Post by Gorf on Nov 2, 2004 23:19:13 GMT -5
In theory from what I just heard Dade country, the pan handle and a few other counties have not reported yet in Florida.
Dade is pretty large and I believe was heavy Gore in 2000 but I don't know if it would be enough to close a 300,000+ gap for Kerry to take Florida.
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Lwood
Sophomore
Go Lions!
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Post by Lwood on Nov 2, 2004 23:26:44 GMT -5
I don't understand why the networks are calling Wash. for Kerry already. Only 3% of the precincts have reported. They must be the most populous precincts - but even still the CSPAN map has it in a dead heat.
I think Kerry will win Wash. but that's not the point.
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Post by Gorf on Nov 2, 2004 23:33:50 GMT -5
That's what I've been talkign about with the early projections.
The networks have now projected Florida for Bush which takes it to:
Bush: 237 Kerry: 188
If that really holds then Ohio becomes huge for Kerry.
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Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 0:44:18 GMT -5
Latest projections:
Bush: 246 Kerry: 206
Ohio is still the key state at this point with Bush maintaining ~3% lead with 82% of precincts reporting. There are many absentee ballots that won't be counted though.
Wisconsin is very close again this year as well. Kerry is holding onto ~1% lead 62% of precincts reporting.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2004 0:47:50 GMT -5
Amazing.
Fact of the matter is there are too many people out there who would vote for aWol no matter what he did.
I am embarrassed to be an American.
Shame on us!
+++
What's the deal with Hawaii? Do the polls close at 6pm? They kept talking about how Alaska was the only state with polls still open.
I'm going to bed.
We deserve whatever we have coming...
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Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 0:58:10 GMT -5
Kerry appears to have an early lead in Hawaii.
Some media outlets had projected Ohio to Bush but with 87% of precincts reporting Kerry has closed the gap to 2% and ~100,000 votes. There are reportedly at least 140,000 provisional votes in Florida so it isn't likely to be truly realistically projected before the night is over.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2004 1:36:14 GMT -5
Anyone else find it odd that Fox is the only network projecting Ohio (to Bush)?
Let's see. The Far Right will now have control of the White House, the Senate, the House, and, very soon, the Supreme Court.
This is truly scary. Taliban scary. Iran scary.
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Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 1:43:59 GMT -5
The gap in Ohio closed back to 2% with 92% of precincts reporting.
If that gap can be closed more in the final 8% of precincts who knows what happens.
Bush has taken the lead in Iowa by 8000 votes (1%), he has a 5% lead in New Mexico.
Bush and Kerry are flipping-flopping the lead in Nevada.
Kerry has maintained a 3% lead in Michigan and a 1% lead in Wisconsin. He has an early 11% lead in Hawaii.
If Kerry somehow manages to get Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Hawaii that would give them an additional 51 votes and a 272 vote total.
Ohio is certainly a bit of a longshot for Kerry, but it certainly isn't on the Bush side yet.
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Post by bucky415 on Nov 3, 2004 1:52:02 GMT -5
Seriously, it is over. This is truly pathetic for the Democrats. I just can't wait to see what is in store for the second term. I am probably going to use my 39 cents from the next round of tax cuts to join the ACLU. I never liked Kerry, but the Democrats really need to define what they are for. I don't think the future looks good for them. They again lost the entire South and the entire inter-mountain West except for maybe Nevada and New Hampshire. That is not a good trend demographically. I think Kerry deserves some blame as well. I still am not sure what he stands for, and he wasn't able to use any of the issues I would have hammered to much avail (failing war, nightmare view of the world, budget deficits, weak economy, lack of health care, etc.). I think (R)uffda has a point, though. I think most of the people with flags or flag decals on their SUVs or pickup trucks would have voted W in no matter what. I realize I am in a bitter mood, but I think Americans probably are getting the president and policies that they deserve.
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Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 2:10:35 GMT -5
I don't think its actually over yet. Certainly the odds are in Bush's favor at this point, but there is also a decent change the results in Ohio will be put into some sort of litigation.
If Kerry doesn't get Wisconsin, Michigan, and one of the other remaining states it may not matter if he gets Ohio.
Ohio's secretary of state has just reported on a live broadcast that they don't know the exact number of provisional ballots, but with the counts they have at this time show that they are "trending" towards around 175,000 provisional ballots.
Its interesting.
Bush appears to be leading the popular vote, and it some sort of litigation or a high percentage of the provisional votes giving Ohio to Kerry we would have a reversal of the 2000 election and a Kerry victory.
That's probably not overly likely, but still interesting that situation is a possibility.
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Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 2:17:59 GMT -5
Even if the provisional votes don't give Kerry an outright victory in Ohio they could close the gap to the point where they could call for a recount in the state.
With 97% of precincts reporting in Ohio the lead is still with Bush at 51% to 49% or about 128,000 votes.
Kerry would then need somewhere around 60% of the projected provisional votes to gain a tie in Ohio.
Its somewhat fascinating to me at this point.
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Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 2:25:52 GMT -5
it turns out that there are also an unknown number of absentee ballots that have not been counted in Ohio and those won't be counted for 11 days.
Bush appears to be close to gaining Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada.
Hawaii has just been projected for Kerry.
Bush: 249 Kerry: 225
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Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 2:55:15 GMT -5
Nevada to Bush:
Bush: 254 Kerry: 225
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Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 3:00:13 GMT -5
Edwards went out to tell the people gathered at their campaign headquarters that waiting one more day after fighting for four years isn't bad - or something along those lines.
Not too much later supposedly a voice came over a loud speaker telling everyone "thanks for showing up".
It would probably have been better for Kerry to have gone out and spoken to his people there himself.
Very odd.
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Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 3:15:38 GMT -5
With 103% of the precincts reporting in New Mexico and Bush having a 5% lead the state has still not been projected for Bush. Methinks something is askew with the precincts reporting data. In Ohio with 98% of the precincts reporting Bush'es lead has grown back to 3% or ~139,000 votes. So even with 175,000 provisional votes and some unknown number of absentee ballots its looking good for Bush to retain the presidency. That said, a live report just stated that a couple of precincts are actually still open with voters still in line from the long lines that were there many hours ago. At best we'll see if Kerry will concede sometime Wednesday or if he'll insist on holding out for the full 11 days for the provisional ballots to be judged and counted and the absentee vote to be counted.
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