|
Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 3:32:27 GMT -5
With 99% of precincts reporting in Ohio the lead for Bush has remained at 3% but grown to 144,000 votes.
Michigan projected for Kerry.
Bush: 254 Kerry: 242
|
|
|
Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 3:52:34 GMT -5
Interestingly New Mexico has dropped from 103% of precincts reported to 98% reported and Bush's lead has dwindled to 1% or just under 2,000 votes. I see that (R)uffda and BiK have won senate seats in Minnesota and Hawaii as write in votes so they can carry on their verbal sparring on a national stage from the Senate floor.
|
|
|
Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Nov 3, 2004 4:38:34 GMT -5
Gorf get some sleep. Thanks for the updates.
|
|
|
Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 4:42:34 GMT -5
Wisconsin projected to Kerry:
Bush: 254 kerry: 252
Iowa and New Mexico each with 99% of precincts reporting are both 51% to 49% in favor of Bush but are essentially now "meaningless".
Bush has what would appear to be an insurmountable lead in Ohio, though Kerry isn't likely to concede there until there is a final known total number of provisional and absentee ballots and whether they even remotely have a chance to get a high enough percentage of those votes to either win the state or to force a recount.
|
|
|
Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 4:43:45 GMT -5
[quote author= BiK link=board=news&thread=1099066354&start=77#5 date=1099474714]Gorf get some sleep. Thanks for the updates.[/quote] ROFL. My wife's alarm goes off in about an hour. You're the great Bikstradamus prognosticatorizer supreme.
|
|
|
Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Nov 3, 2004 4:50:55 GMT -5
You're the great Bikstradamus prognosticatorizer supreme. Rare occassion where I actually make a correct prediction, assuming Ohio does indeed go to Bush. I'm all campaigned out. The representative I was working for was re-elected. The only bummer is my girlfriend isn't too happy right now. The same can be said for a lot of my friends. One would think I'd be very pleased with a Bush victory, I'm not. Now that it seems to be over, I wonder how much of a difference Kerry would have made. In retrospect, I don't despise Kerry at all. I'm actually a little sad for him.
|
|
|
Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 4:58:10 GMT -5
I simply find it somewhat fascinating that we're in a somewhat similar position this year as we were in 2004 but in Ohio instead of Florida and so far without the legal challenges of the "dropped chads" (though Ohio does happen to be a punch card state) or the issues of reportedly not clearly marked ballots where numerous people intending to vote for one candidate yet actually voted for a different candidate by mistake because of the design of the ballots.
Bush appears to have 51%+ of the popular vote.
The Republicans appear to have picked up seats in the senate, included knocking the Democratic Minority Leader (South Dakota's Tom Daschle) out of office in favor of formor Congressman Tom Thune.
The Democrats have been hit pretty hard in this election on a national level.
|
|
|
Post by Gorf on Nov 3, 2004 6:14:50 GMT -5
The alarm for my wife to get ready to go teach went off so I might as well babble a bit more.
Kerry has closed to within ~136,000 of Bush in Ohio.
If there are indeed 175,000+ provisional ballots Kerry would need ~93% of those to pass Bush enough votes that Bush could not demand a recount. This would give Kerry the election. Not very likely to happen.
Kerry would need ~89% of the provisional votes in order to tie or slightly surpas Bush, at which point Bush would probably demand a recount. Since Bush would demand a recount in this situation it becomes basically irrelevant.
Kerry would need a bit over 84% of the provisional votes in order to gain enough votes to be within close enough range of Bush in order to demand a recount.
Anything under 84% would be an outright Ohio victory for Bush and a victory in the presidential election.
It doesn't sound very likely for Kerry to take 84%+ of the provisional votes. Its probably marginally possible if it was the Republicans that were doing the majority of the challenges that lead to the provisional votes being required.
If there are more than 175,000 provisional votes or there are an appreciable amount of absentee ballots then the percentages needed by Kerry are lowered.
Still not very good odds for Kerry. But for the sake of argument lets say that Kerry is stubborn and waits the entire 11 days for the provisional votes to be judged and counted and by some minor miracle does gain enough votes to force a reccount.
At that point since Ohio is a punch card state like Florida was in 2000 we open up the realm of the dropped chads again.
;D
|
|
|
Post by bigfan on Nov 3, 2004 10:59:59 GMT -5
[quote author=BiK link=board=news&thread=1099066354&start=80#5 date=1099475455]
Rare occassion where I actually make a correct prediction, assuming Ohio does indeed go to Bush.
I'm all campaigned out. The representative I was working for was re-elected. The only bummer is my girlfriend isn't too happy right now. The same can be said for a lot of my friends. One would think I'd be very pleased with a Bush victory, I'm not. Now that it seems to be over, I wonder how much of a difference Kerry would have made. In retrospect, I don't despise Kerry at all. I'm actually a little sad for him.[/quote]Congratulations, BIK you are a true believer. Now what about the Wahines?
|
|