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Post by spikerthemovie on Nov 6, 2012 0:51:30 GMT -5
Interesting mixup. Stanford definitely benefitting if this would be the seeding come tournament time Forget Stanford, you expect the overall #1 to get an easy path. No, this seeding would be a dream come true for Texas. They creamed San Diego already using a much weaker lineup, and played Minnesota very close with perhaps the most clumsy and awkward 6-2 lineup I've seen in Jerritt's tenure. Plus, the team that beats Texas in the tournament will do it from the service line. Minnesota is definitely not known for being a tough serving team. Hard to see them outlasting the firepower Texas has been displaying the last three weeks if they can't neutralize it with tough serves. You mean the Minnesota team that is 12th in the nation in aces (second among BCS schools) and has the number four aces-per-set server in the nation? |
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Post by lionsfan on Nov 6, 2012 0:57:53 GMT -5
I think the Big 10 is only going to get 2 seeds this year, Nebraska and PSU. You don't think Minnesota gets a seed? |
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 6, 2012 3:37:45 GMT -5
I think the Big 10 is only going to get 2 seeds this year, Nebraska and PSU. You don't think Minnesota gets a seed? WHOOPS! yeah I think the Gophers get a seed, my bad. totally overlooked them in the rpi. As for the other Big 10 teams, I just think that they will have accumulated too many losses compared to the other bubble seed teams. |
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Post by rampageripster on Nov 6, 2012 8:54:30 GMT -5
You don't think Minnesota gets a seed? WHOOPS! yeah I think the Gophers get a seed, my bad. totally overlooked them in the rpi. As for the other Big 10 teams, I just think that they will have accumulated too many losses compared to the other bubble seed teams. After losing to Minn on Sunday, I think the only way tOSU gets a seed is if they win out. That would include wins @ Pur and @ PSU. It's a shame, cause the Buckeyes had two top 10 teams on the ropes up 2-0 at home, and lost both of them in 5 (Oregon and Minn). Win those two matches and this is a completely different story. |
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Post by BoilerUp! on Nov 6, 2012 11:09:15 GMT -5
So, Purdue went from 26 to 24. What I don't know is, if they won one of the non-expected-wins would it be mathematically possible to make it to 16 ? No, not on the 1 win alone. winning one more match for the year has only a slightly positive impact on rpi. your own win-loss ratio is only 25% of the rpi. If Purdue ends the season 22-9 instead of 21-10 the difference is a .709 winning percentage to a .700 winning percentage. that small difference simply is not gonna bump Purdue higher than all those other teams. what helps Purdue the most is if their non conference teams score a few more wins than expected overall. But then that could also hurt Purdue depending on which teams win. If it's my team (washington), for example, and we end up winning out (which boosts Purdue's rpi) and getting close to #16 in the end, Washington will have the definitive edge against all bubble teams for a seed having 5 wins over rpi top 25 and no losses against non seeded teams. I think the Big 10 is only going to get 2 3 seeds this year, Nebraska, PSU, Minnesota. Thank you for the analysis. I was trying all the many fun RPKI pages at Rich Kern, but I was not sure I had it straight in my mind. |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 6, 2012 11:53:06 GMT -5
The bracket is going to be really messy this year because of too many qualified teams from the OH/KY/NC/IN area. It would help a lot if Tennessee, OSU, or Purdue got seeded, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop K-State or (especially) USD in favor of one of those. I mocked up some subregionals based on the above RPI projections, current AQs, trying to keep travel to a minimum and giving each seed a favorable first round match-up. The KY/LVILLE/UNC cluster could end up very different, as could the Neb/K-State/Minn to a lesser extent.
Stanford
Colgate/Creighton/ Santa Clara
Kentucky
Morehead St./Notre Dame/Michigan
BYU
Utah St./Colo St./Cal
FSU
FGCU/Western KY/Jackson St.
Nebraska
LIU-Brooklyn/UNI/Kansas
Florida
Ga Southern/Miami/Washington
USC
Towson/Hawaii/Pepperdine
UCLA
Ohio/Saint Mary's/Clemson
Texas
Sam Houston/Tulsa/ Texas A&M
San Diego
Arizona St./Northwestern/SDSU
North Carolina
UMES/Liberty/Ohio St.
Minnesota
IPFW/Iowa St./Marquette
Oregon
Portland St./Oklahoma/Michigan St.
Louisville
Purdue/Tennessee/Cleveland St.
Kansas St.
Albany/Wichita St./Arkansas
Penn State
Yale/Va-Tech/Fairfield
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 6, 2012 12:03:15 GMT -5
Was there any particular reason why you put most of the top PAC-12 teams into one region except Oregon, who you put in a different region? I kept how the seeds fell 1 v. 16, etc. etc. In placing unseeded teams into subregionals, I see how easy it is for the Committee to not even think about which regional they're in (hence 2009 Big 12-opolis). And I just eralized I didn't put Cal in its own regional, so switch them and Arizona St. (or switch USD's and BYU's seeds). I suppose to fix this, you would switch USC's seed up one or down to move them around (maybe flip with UNC). I don't think the Committee will think that far ahead. It's much harder to deal with the damn travel restrictions. And even then, your point isn't that strong. There are PAC-12 teams in all 4 regions, and seeded ones in 3 of them. It sucks that USC/UCLA are slated to match up in the Sweet 16, but that's hwo the RPI is falling. UW is also in that region, but they've got matches against Miami and Florida in the Sunshine State and a road match at Nebraska before they would meet either in the Elite 8, so I don't think that's too PAC heavy. Do you? |
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 6, 2012 12:07:04 GMT -5
I deleted my comment because I decided it didn't matter. This is one person's projection of a bracket based on projected RPIs a month before the season ends.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 6, 2012 12:22:39 GMT -5
I deleted my comment because I decided it didn't matter. This is one person's projection of a bracket based on projected RPIs a month before the season ends. Yes, but at the same time it taught me a lot of things about howI was complaining about the brackets. You can sit down and pinpoint where you think an unseeded Washngton team, but it just doesn't work out that easily. You can't send them to the PAC regionals nor the ones out of the WCC (already have PAC at-larges). A lot of the other ones were overfull with teams within the travel range (Louisville, Kentucky, North Carolina, PSU, Texas) or were only brininging in AQ teams from distance (Minnesota, Nebraska, K-State). So I basically had to flip a coin between UF and FSU. The Committee has a lot less leeway than you think, given its instructions. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 6, 2012 12:41:03 GMT -5
My point is that I don't think it is worth worrying about such details yet, when the whole bracket could be completely changed if Washington beats Stanford on Thursday. And that's just one match out of the more than a thousand still left to play in this season.
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Post by lionsfan on Nov 6, 2012 12:43:04 GMT -5
My point is that I don't think it is worth worrying about such details yet, when the whole bracket could be completely changed if Washington beats Stanford on Thursday. And that's just one match out of the more than a thousand still left to play in this season. But it's fun! What else would we all argue about? |
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 6, 2012 12:44:40 GMT -5
My point is that I don't think it is worth worrying about such details yet, when the whole bracket could be completely changed if Washington beats Stanford on Thursday. And that's just one match out of the more than a thousand still left to play in this season. But it's fun! What else would we all argue about? I didn't ask candle to delete his post. I deleted my post. Feel free to argue about it all you want. I'll stay out of it. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2012 14:10:42 GMT -5
No way the Big Ten only gets three top 16 seeds. This league is tougher than ever in 2012. I know the committee gets that. The Big Ten has a better chance to see five top 16 seeds than three.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 6, 2012 14:16:54 GMT -5
No way the Big Ten only gets three top 16 seeds. This league is tougher than ever in 2012. I know the committee gets that. The Big Ten has a better chance to see five top 16 seeds than three. It would make the subregionals much easier to form and the bracket more balanced if they did, but it would be seriously hypocritical of the Committee to move away from using the RPI just for the benefit of the Big Ten. |
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Post by stand on Nov 6, 2012 14:52:53 GMT -5
No way the Big Ten only gets three top 16 seeds. This league is tougher than ever in 2012. I know the committee gets that. The Big Ten has a better chance to see five top 16 seeds than three. It would make the subregionals much easier to form and the bracket more balanced if they did, but it would be seriously hypocritical of the Committee to move away from using the RPI just for the benefit of the Big Ten. The RPI is used to select who gets in, but not for seeding. Here are the seeded teams from last year, none of the rankings seem to correlate to the seed: | Team | W | L | Seed | AVCA | Kern | RPI | Pablo | | Texas | 22 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | | Nebraska | 24 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | | Illinois | 27 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 10 | | Iowa State | 22 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 6 | | Purdue | 27 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | | UNI | 32 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 15 | | USC | 25 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | | Penn State | 23 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 3 | | UCLA | 24 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 13 | | Hawaii | 29 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | | Stanford | 21 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 25 | | Florida St. | 24 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 20 | 10 | 23 | | Minnesota | 18 | 11 | 13 | 19 | 18 | 12 | 16 | | Tennessee | 27 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 9 | | Pepperdine | 22 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 11 | | Texas A&M | 22 | 7 | 16 | 27 | 26 | 17 | 12 |
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