Final Bracketology (all matches concluded)

[Barefoot In Kailua]

Nov 25, 2012 10:27:53 GMT -5 southie said:

Nov 25, 2012 0:59:41 GMT -5 Barefoot In Kailua said:

I don't expect to see Hawaii at USC or UCLA for a subregional. Haley would throw a fit. Sealy probably would too. A potential second round match of two top 10 AVCA teams is dumb. It has happened before but unlikely.

I doubt it matters to the committee if someone "throws a fit". It's not like these coaches can retaliate.

The reason the rules were changed to allow seeded teams to host is because the PAC 12 coaches advocated for change. It may not matter to the current Women's. Volleyball Championship Committee when creating the seeds and pairings but it does matter to the NCAA.

[baywatcher]

The specter of Coach Haley on tv last year, saying "I've been doing this a long time" in essence saying, I know what I'm doing" criticizing and responding to being seeded 10th as Pac 12 champ could not have sat well with the NCAA people involved with volleyball. Don't know how many that is, but the numbers of schools involved, student athletes, and attendance at final Four is not minimal.

Last year Haley basically proved them wrong, making the final four and points away from the final. Be interesting to see if there is retaliation this year, silently warning coaches to keep their mouths shut.

[BeachbytheBay]

Hawaii hosts, & Washington travels to Hawaii.

[herdmentality]

Nov 25, 2012 13:48:47 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

Hawaii hosts, & Washington travels to Hawaii.

Seattle-Honolulu flights cheap right now! I wonder if the committee knows that.

If it is Washington, please give them lots of leis (on arrival) some slides and many, many tips and that will assure the Husky fans and extra couple of weeks to complain about the committee selections.

[hammer]

Nov 25, 2012 13:27:53 GMT -5 baywatcher said:

The specter of Coach Haley on tv last year, saying "I've been doing this a long time" in essence saying, I know what I'm doing" criticizing and responding to being seeded 10th as Pac 12 champ could not have sat well with the NCAA people involved with volleyball. Don't know how many that is, but the numbers of schools involved, student athletes, and attendance at final Four is not minimal.

Last year Haley basically proved them wrong, making the final four and points away from the final. Be interesting to see if there is retaliation this year, silently warning coaches to keep their mouths shut.

Mick, former National team coach, three national championships, numerous FF appearances ... to have the temerity to scold the NCAA committee with a weak resume like that is simply outrageous.

[herdmentality]

My last minute predictions (would work for committee) and regionals

1. Stanford
2. PSU
3. Texas
4. Louisville
5. Nebraska
6. UCLA
7. FSU
8. Kansas
9. BYU
10. Minnesota
11. Florida
12. Oregon
13. USC
14. Texas A&M
15. Washington
16. Hawaii

Cal
(1) Stanford
(16) Hawaii
(9) BYU
(8) Kansas

Omaha
(5) Nebraska
12 Oregon
13 USC
(4) Louisville

Austin
(3) Texas
(14) Texas A&M
(11) Florida
(6) UCLA

Purdue
(7) FSU
(10) Minnesota
(15) Washington
(2) PSU

[jagdpanther]

Nebraska/Oregon in the Sweet 16 would be really interesting.

Penn State/Washington... wow. That would be a great match. Penn State would really have to limit the errors in such a match. Our block has disappeared at times this season and we could not afford that against Washington.

[baywatcher]

for herdmentality brackets; just to be argumentative and nothing else to do while waiting on the NCAA

why Louisville so high? I put them right behind Hawaii. Their "BIG" wins are Purdue and Miami, then Marquette 3 times, Kentucky, Western Kentucky, Illinois. Lost to 53 RPI Notre Dame. And that's worth a 4 seed. The conference RPI is as bad as Hawaii's. No other under 70 wins in there. had the foresight to lose to Penn State and Texs, helping RPI.

Florida State, for example, has a win over Miami, same as Louisville, then Tennessee, Iowa State, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio State, North Carolina State twice, Georgia Tech, Clemson, all under 70 Pablo teams. To me much more impressive than beating Purdue and Marquette.

And I wrote above why Texas A&M shouldnot be seeded. Iowa State much more deserving. Actually beat somebody.

[Deleted]

Nov 25, 2012 0:44:42 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 25, 2012 0:41:22 GMT -5 vball928 said:

Any chance Trojans or Bruins will host the first round playoffs?

I'm hoping both of them will host.

Teams that could be sent their way:
Hawai'i
California
San Diego
San Diego State
Saint Mary's
Santa Clara
Pepperdine
Oklahoma has a history
Arizona State

Since Cal and Arizona are in the same conference as USC and UCLA, neither of them would be sent there. If Santa Clara makes it in, they will go to Stanford; if not St. Marys will probably go there.

[trojansc]

I got all 64 teams right!!! Can I be the vb Joe Lunardi and get my own section on ESPN now please? Thanks!

[Deleted]

Seedings a bit off, but every team is called perfectly! Nice job trojan

[trojansc]

Nov 25, 2012 16:23:02 GMT -5 @swaneys14 said:

Seedings a bit off, but every team is called perfectly! Nice job trojan

Seedings are definitely off - the NCAA is hard to predict in that manor. Kentucky?

[karplets]

IF the RPI is primarily or exclusively used to determine the seed candidates, then I think the most likely top 4 seeds will be 1. Penn State, 2. Nebraska, 3. Stanford, 4. Texas

I'm using that updated website for the RPI list (ohio.mcginn) ohiomcginn.dyndns-at-home.com/ncaastats/volleyball-rpi.cgi#

The top seed candidates would include Louisville, UCLA, Kansas, and Florida State in addition to the above.

It's very likely Stanford's loss to Penn State hurts them in two ways - both the direct head-to-head against Penn State of course, but also in comparison to Nebraska looking at their common opponents (Stanford: Loss to PSU; Nebraska: W/L) And as far as record against the seed candidates, Nebraska matches Stanford's win(s) against UCLA.

Again, this depends on the Committee using the top 8 RPI as the pool of candidates for the top seeds. But if they do this, I don't see any way that they would seed Stanford over Penn State. Stanford and Nebraska is much closer and I would need to be able to know more precisely how the Committee works to say with any certainty which of those teams gets the higher seed.

I'll try to work on an alternative seeding based on the Committee averaging the RPI, Pablo, and the AVCA poll to determine the seed candidates.

[karplets]

ah, I'm behind the times. They already announced the bracket. Okay, I think we have reason to think the Committee incorporated Pablo and/or the AVCA poll to determine the seed candidates. As nearly as I can tell (and we don't know whether the Committee received an updated Pablo that we don't have), the top 8 teams by averaged RPI/Pablo/AVCA are: Penn State, Stanford, Texas, UCLA, USC, Oregon, Louisville, and Nebraska.

I'm working on an analysis based on that pool of candidates...

[karplets]

My analysis using what I know of the Committee's criteria came up with the following top four seeds: 1)Penn State, 2) Stanford, 3 and 4) Nebraska and Oregon (not sure in what order those two). I had Texas outside the top 4. It was very close however. I think Oregon was hurt by its record in the last 10 games, a criterion that I find rather problematic to interpret or apply. Oregon hurt for sure by its loss to California (although Texas also lost its last game, didn't they? to Iowa State). But Oregon seems punished for having the harder conference, with losses in the last 10 also to Stanford and Washington.

I also don't know how much weight the Committee gives to the NCRPI (Non-Conference RPI or OOCRPI / Out-of-Conference RPI). Texas, I believe, ranked #2 in NCRPI while Oregon was much further down the list (taking those numbers from Baywatcher on another thread)