FINALIZED Bracketology (11/28) [includes AQ's]

[kidfree]

bluepenquin, I noticed that you have Pacific in your mix for either USC, UCLA or Stanford areas. Do you think they have a chance to make the cut or are you just putting it out there in case?

Thanks for the work.

[southie]

Nov 23, 2015 11:36:42 GMT -5 vbphilsdad said:

In 2011, un-seeded Florida was sent to UNI (1229 mi.) when FSU and Tenn were hosting first week-end.
Was that because they had to be put the Gainesville regional? Is that always a predominant locating factor?
How do they determine which regional gets the 1-8-9-16 pods vs. the 2-7-10-15 pods, etc?
can they move the pods around, like NCAA BB?

Florida was a regional host that year, but an unseeded at-large participant. They had to be placed in their own regional (group of 16 teams); so, didn't matter which of the 4 sub-regionals they were sent to as long as those four seeded hosts were placed in the Florida regional.

[n00b]

Nov 23, 2015 11:36:42 GMT -5 vbphilsdad said:

In 2011, un-seeded Florida was sent to UNI (1229 mi.) when FSU and Tenn were hosting first week-end.
Was that because they had to be put the Gainesville regional? Is that always a predominant locating factor?
How do they determine which regional gets the 1-8-9-16 pods vs. the 2-7-10-15 pods, etc?
can they move the pods around, like NCAA BB?

Yes they can move the pods around. They mainly act on two principles when picking which region plays where. First, host schools obviously have to play at home. This could affect seeding some since they can't end up with two host schools in the same region. Second, the try to keep the #1 overall seed as close to home as possible, then #2, etc.

[southie]

Nov 23, 2015 12:47:36 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 23, 2015 11:36:42 GMT -5 vbphilsdad said:

In 2011, un-seeded Florida was sent to UNI (1229 mi.) when FSU and Tenn were hosting first week-end.
Was that because they had to be put the Gainesville regional? Is that always a predominant locating factor?
How do they determine which regional gets the 1-8-9-16 pods vs. the 2-7-10-15 pods, etc?
can they move the pods around, like NCAA BB?

Yes they can move the pods around. They mainly act on two principles when picking which region plays where. First, host schools obviously have to play at home. This could affect seeding some since they can't end up with two host schools in the same region. Second, the try to keep the #1 overall seed as close to home as possible, then #2, etc.

I don't think they try to keep any of the seeds "as close to home as possible" other than the Top 4 national seeds.

Last year, there was #5 PSU, #6 Florida State, #7 North Carolina, and #8 Florida. FSU being sent to Seattle negates "regionalization" unless one thinks that UF was the true #6 seed (but placed in Ames, IA) and UNC was above FSU, and thereby sent to Minneapolis.

[trojansc]

This post will be updated sometime in the late hours west coast time tonight

[bluepenquin]

Nov 23, 2015 12:39:48 GMT -5 kidfree said:

bluepenquin, I noticed that you have Pacific in your mix for either USC, UCLA or Stanford areas. Do you think they have a chance to make the cut or are you just putting it out there in case?

Thanks for the work.

I think that if either Long Beach State or Pacific win out (they play each other) then they will have an RPI in the 48-51 range and could make the tournament.  I am guessing this would put them squarely on the bubble - I leave that whether that would be good enough for others here (trojansc).

[n00b]

Nov 23, 2015 13:04:49 GMT -5 southie said:

Nov 23, 2015 12:47:36 GMT -5 n00b said:

Yes they can move the pods around. They mainly act on two principles when picking which region plays where. First, host schools obviously have to play at home. This could affect seeding some since they can't end up with two host schools in the same region. Second, the try to keep the #1 overall seed as close to home as possible, then #2, etc.

I don't think they try to keep any of the seeds "as close to home as possible" other than the Top 4 national seeds.

Last year, there was #5 PSU, #6 Florida State, #7 North Carolina, and #8 Florida. FSU being sent to Seattle negates "regionalization" unless one thinks that UF was the true #6 seed (but placed in Ames, IA) and UNC was above FSU, and thereby sent to Minneapolis.

Isn't that what I said? I guess my use of etcetera wasn't great. I only meant #1, #2, #3 and #4.

[gophervbfan]

Nov 23, 2015 13:29:03 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 23, 2015 12:39:48 GMT -5 kidfree said:

bluepenquin, I noticed that you have Pacific in your mix for either USC, UCLA or Stanford areas. Do you think they have a chance to make the cut or are you just putting it out there in case?

Thanks for the work.

I think that if either Long Beach State or Pacific win out (they play each other) then they will have an RPI in the 48-51 range and could make the tournament.  I am guessing this would put them squarely on the bubble - I leave that whether that would be good enough for others here (trojansc).

The current RPI for Long Beach is #63 and for Pacific it is #60. Very difficult to see either of these teams making it. The WCC looks like it has a pretty natural cut-off at 4 teams making it. Santa Clara is the 4th team in the conference with an RPI of #37 and then it drops to Pacific at #60. Unless I am missing something, Pacific and Long Beach look like they are on the outside of the bubble.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 23, 2015 15:42:48 GMT -5 gophervbfan said:

Nov 23, 2015 13:29:03 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I think that if either Long Beach State or Pacific win out (they play each other) then they will have an RPI in the 48-51 range and could make the tournament.  I am guessing this would put them squarely on the bubble - I leave that whether that would be good enough for others here (trojansc).

The current RPI for Long Beach is #63 and for Pacific it is #60. Very difficult to see either of these teams making it. The WCC looks like it has a pretty natural cut-off at 4 teams making it. Santa Clara is the 4th team in the conference with an RPI of #37 and then it drops to Pacific at #60. Unless I am missing something, Pacific and Long Beach look like they are on the outside of the bubble.

You could be right, when looking at the futures last week - I was seeing a path to the 48-51 range.  I will have to see if that has changed when updating tonight.

Keep in mind, Long Beach State has matches against Pacific (17-11) and Denver (27-6) and Pacific has matches left with LBSU (23-6) and Santa Clara (21-8).  Plus, Pacific can pick up a T50 bonus points.  Those are pretty good additions to RPI SOS.  2 wins by either may result in a 10 or more improvement in the final RPI rank.

[trollhunter]

Nov 23, 2015 15:42:48 GMT -5 gophervbfan said:

Nov 23, 2015 13:29:03 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I think that if either Long Beach State or Pacific win out (they play each other) then they will have an RPI in the 48-51 range and could make the tournament.  I am guessing this would put them squarely on the bubble - I leave that whether that would be good enough for others here (trojansc).

The current RPI for Long Beach is #63 and for Pacific it is #60. Very difficult to see either of these teams making it. The WCC looks like it has a pretty natural cut-off at 4 teams making it. Santa Clara is the 4th team in the conference with an RPI of #37 and then it drops to Pacific at #60. Unless I am missing something, Pacific and Long Beach look like they are on the outside of the bubble.

They are outside the bubble now - but both still have 2 matches left against teams with good W/L records. So whichever one of them wins out will have a decent increase to parts 1 and 2 of their RPI calculation. I agree with Blue - it could put them squarely on the bubble.

Edit: Aww Blue beat me to it. And I think the LBSU vs Pacific game was recently added to schedule so it may not have been calculated in last Futures edition.

[usvballfan]

Arizona has 12 losses and still remains in the Top 25???

[bill]

Nov 23, 2015 13:29:03 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 23, 2015 12:39:48 GMT -5 kidfree said:

bluepenquin, I noticed that you have Pacific in your mix for either USC, UCLA or Stanford areas. Do you think they have a chance to make the cut or are you just putting it out there in case?

Thanks for the work.

I think that if either Long Beach State or Pacific win out (they play each other) then they will have an RPI in the 48-51 range and could make the tournament.  I am guessing this would put them squarely on the bubble - I leave that whether that would be good enough for others here (trojansc).

Even though i THINK THAT lbs IS Clearly a top 64 team, in fact a whole lot better than that, the rpi crapola is going to kill their chances...not going to get an at-large.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 23, 2015 20:15:22 GMT -5 bill said:

Nov 23, 2015 13:29:03 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I think that if either Long Beach State or Pacific win out (they play each other) then they will have an RPI in the 48-51 range and could make the tournament.  I am guessing this would put them squarely on the bubble - I leave that whether that would be good enough for others here (trojansc).

Even though i THINK THAT lbs IS Clearly a top 64 team, in fact a whole lot better than that, the rpi crapola is going to kill their chances...not going to get an at-large.

Doing the updated calculations - Pacific wins their final 2, they would be projected to finish #47 in the final RPI. And if Long Beach wins their final 2 matches, they would be projected to finish #51. These could change a couple spots depending on how teams around them finish.

[Deleted]

Nov 23, 2015 20:50:17 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 23, 2015 20:15:22 GMT -5 bill said:

Even though i THINK THAT lbs IS Clearly a top 64 team, in fact a whole lot better than that, the rpi crapola is going to kill their chances...not going to get an at-large.

Doing the updated calculations - Pacific wins their final 2, they would be projected to finish #47 in the final RPI. And if Long Beach wins their final 2 matches, they would be projected to finish #51. These could change a couple spots depending on how teams around them finish.

I agree with you, bluepenquin, about the possibility of LBSU and Pacific. As of now, based solely on RPI, the last at-large goes to UNI, current RPI of 52. And in the final week, I would not be surprised--though I am not running any computerized algorithm or other analysis--if some teams on or near the bubble went up 10 places and others went down 10 places. There are also still two conference autos that are up for grabs and that could affect the final two slots.

[ndodge]

Nov 22, 2015 17:46:45 GMT -5 bigfan said:

Nov 22, 2015 17:12:53 GMT -5 usvballfan said:

I think USC and Washington have earned it and should have higher seeds than Minnesota or Wisconsin (based on their win/loss records). The top four are so critical.

PSU should be a top seed in one of the regionals. They are going to be terror when all is said and done.

Should because they *might* play to past form ?  I sure hope the Badgers get that kind of credit after Carlini leaves.  Now, you may be right in the end, but in no way has the current team earned a top 4 seed.