FINALIZED Bracketology (11/28) [includes AQ's]

[trojansc]

updated. All RPI numbers are the NCAA's RPi listed as of 11/23.

[dawnsong]

Missing a significant win for Michigan...
On Nov 14 they swept Ohio State in Columbus.

Yes, both Ohio -and- Ohio State should be in their significant win list.

[Dakota]

Why is Illinois a lock?

[gobruins]

Nov 17, 2015 15:16:06 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Bracketology (11/24)
A majority of teams have concluded the regular season (particularly those with conference tournaments). Some teams are still in action this week.
Crucial Big East and Missouri Valley tournaments this weekend.
**I will update the Automatic Qualifiers as they win their conference.
**I will update my final selections after all matches conclude on Saturday night, November 28th and release a predicted NCAA Tournament bracket.

The NCAA Selection show on Sunday, November 29th.


Projected Sixteen Seeds:
(1) USC
(2) Texas
(3) Minnesota
(4) Wisconsin
(5) Washington
(6) Nebraska
(7) Texas A&M
(8) Kansas
(9) Florida
(10) Penn State
(11) Stanford
(12) BYU
(13) UCLA
(14) Ohio State
(15) Missouri
(16) Louisville

So, do you see the USC/Kansas/Florida/Louisville bracket being sent to Kentucky? With Wisconsin/Washington/BYU/UCLA in San Diego?

Kind of goes against the idea of keeping the #1 seed closer to home.

[southie]

Nov 24, 2015 8:54:07 GMT -5 gobruins said:

Nov 17, 2015 15:16:06 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Bracketology (11/24)
A majority of teams have concluded the regular season (particularly those with conference tournaments). Some teams are still in action this week.
Crucial Big East and Missouri Valley tournaments this weekend.
**I will update the Automatic Qualifiers as they win their conference.
**I will update my final selections after all matches conclude on Saturday night, November 28th and release a predicted NCAA Tournament bracket.

The NCAA Selection show on Sunday, November 29th.


Projected Sixteen Seeds:
(1) USC
(2) Texas
(3) Minnesota
(4) Wisconsin
(5) Washington
(6) Nebraska
(7) Texas A&M
(8) Kansas
(9) Florida
(10) Penn State
(11) Stanford
(12) BYU
(13) UCLA
(14) Ohio State
(15) Missouri
(16) Louisville

So, do you see the USC/Kansas/Florida/Louisville bracket being sent to Kentucky? With Wisconsin/Washington/BYU/UCLA in San Diego?

Kind of goes against the idea of keeping the #1 seed closer to home.

You're assuming regional host Kentucky gets sent to the Louisville sub-regional (which is very logical), but I believe they could easily be sent to the Ohio State sub-regional, as well.

[southie]

If A&M were to win at Mizzou and Arkansas this week, I could see them as maybe the #8 national seed. But, I don't think they'll win both games anyway.

[seymour8]

Nov 17, 2015 17:46:51 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Projected Seeds [RPI Futures] (fixed this)

Lexington?:
1. [3]USC v 16. [16]Louisville
8. [8]Kansas v 9. [9]Nebraska

Des Moines:
2. [1]Minnesota v 15. [16]Missouri
7. [4]Florida v 10. [11]BYU

Austin:
3. [2]Texas v 14. [14]Ohio State
6. [5]Wisconsin v 11. [12]TAMU

San Diego?:
4. [6]Penn State v 13. [10]UCLA
5. [7]Washington v 12. [13]Stanford

[17]Western Kentucky
[18]Kentucky
[19]Arkansas State

Lexington looks like a breeze for USC. Why not San Diego? I'm assuming that Louisville, Western Kentucky, and Kentucky will be in the same subregional, with a weaker drive-in, to help ensure one of the three makes it to Lexington.

San Diego regional, as you would have it, is brutal, with Penn State and three of the top four Pac-12 teams.

Louisville, Western Kentucky & Kentucky will not be in the same sub regional. That makes absolutely no sense. I will bet a BurgerKing Whopper with cheese on it.

[tenfootline]

Nov 24, 2015 6:21:56 GMT -5 trojansc said:

updated. All RPI numbers are the NCAA's RPi listed as of 11/23.

Thanks for updating.

Mo State's record should be:

Overall
22-9

Conf.
13-5

Home
9-4

Away
9-4

Neutral
4-1

[bluepenquin]

Nov 24, 2015 9:10:20 GMT -5 seymour8 said:

Nov 17, 2015 17:46:51 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Projected Seeds [RPI Futures] (fixed this)

Lexington?:
1. [3]USC v 16. [16]Louisville
8. [8]Kansas v 9. [9]Nebraska

Des Moines:
2. [1]Minnesota v 15. [16]Missouri
7. [4]Florida v 10. [11]BYU

Austin:
3. [2]Texas v 14. [14]Ohio State
6. [5]Wisconsin v 11. [12]TAMU

San Diego?:
4. [6]Penn State v 13. [10]UCLA
5. [7]Washington v 12. [13]Stanford

[17]Western Kentucky
[18]Kentucky
[19]Arkansas State

Lexington looks like a breeze for USC. Why not San Diego? I'm assuming that Louisville, Western Kentucky, and Kentucky will be in the same subregional, with a weaker drive-in, to help ensure one of the three makes it to Lexington.

San Diego regional, as you would have it, is brutal, with Penn State and three of the top four Pac-12 teams.

Louisville, Western Kentucky & Kentucky will not be in the same sub regional. That makes absolutely no sense. I will bet a BurgerKing Whopper with cheese on it.

I would suggest it is likely (50% chance or better), but there are also many options.  I don't understand what part makes no sense.  Per Pablo rating, Louisville is #13, Western Kentucky is #25, and Kentucky is #33.  This would not be the toughest subregional.  Compare to a likely subregional of #30 Missouri, #15 Illinois and #27 Arkansas State (also not going to be the toughest) although the favorite will not be the host.

[gobruins]

Nov 24, 2015 9:01:27 GMT -5 southie said:

Nov 24, 2015 8:54:07 GMT -5 gobruins said:

So, do you see the USC/Kansas/Florida/Louisville bracket being sent to Kentucky? With Wisconsin/Washington/BYU/UCLA in San Diego?

Kind of goes against the idea of keeping the #1 seed closer to home.

You're assuming regional host Kentucky gets sent to the Louisville sub-regional (which is very logical), but I believe they could easily be sent to the Ohio State sub-regional, as well.

That would mean sending the Minnesota/Nebraska/Stanford/Ohio State bracket to Lexington, instead of the more logical location of Des Moines.

[seymour8]

Nov 24, 2015 11:51:13 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 24, 2015 9:10:20 GMT -5 seymour8 said:

Louisville, Western Kentucky & Kentucky will not be in the same sub regional. That makes absolutely no sense. I will bet a BurgerKing Whopper with cheese on it.

I would suggest it is likely (50% chance or better), but there are also many options.  I don't understand what part makes no sense.  Per Pablo rating, Louisville is #13, Western Kentucky is #25, and Kentucky is #33.  This would not be the toughest subregional.  Compare to a likely subregional of #30 Missouri, #15 Illinois and #27 Arkansas State (also not going to be the toughest) although the favorite will not be the host.

I assumed the selection committee goes by RPI and not Pablo.

[dorothymantooth]

Nov 24, 2015 12:45:44 GMT -5 gobruins said:

Nov 24, 2015 9:01:27 GMT -5 southie said:

You're assuming regional host Kentucky gets sent to the Louisville sub-regional (which is very logical), but I believe they could easily be sent to the Ohio State sub-regional, as well.

That would mean sending the Minnesota/Nebraska/Stanford/Ohio State bracket to Lexington, instead of the more logical location of Des Moines.

Nebraska in the Des Moines regional could be the difference in 3-5,000 tickets. Hard to imagine they don't end up there as a 4,5,6 depending on how they finish this week. Lots of money at stake.

[greenpier]

What happened to Hawai`i?

[MTC]

Nov 24, 2015 12:56:50 GMT -5 dorothymantooth said:

Nov 24, 2015 12:45:44 GMT -5 gobruins said:

That would mean sending the Minnesota/Nebraska/Stanford/Ohio State bracket to Lexington, instead of the more logical location of Des Moines.

Nebraska in the Des Moines regional could be the difference in 3-5,000 tickets. Hard to imagine they don't end up there as a 4,5,6 depending on how they finish this week. Lots of money at stake.

There should be a lot of incentive for the Huskers to finish strong this week for their seeding.

[dorothymantooth]

Nov 24, 2015 13:18:28 GMT -5 MTC said:

Nov 24, 2015 12:56:50 GMT -5 dorothymantooth said:

Nebraska in the Des Moines regional could be the difference in 3-5,000 tickets. Hard to imagine they don't end up there as a 4,5,6 depending on how they finish this week. Lots of money at stake.

There should be a lot of incentive for the Huskers to finish strong this week for their seeding.

There is a lot of incentive for most teams to finish strong. Not sure why Nebraska's would be greater than PSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota.......