|
|
Post by octonion on Nov 27, 2015 19:25:47 GMT -5
With these probabilities, The algorithm might include darts If you say so. |
|
|
|
Post by flvoldad on Nov 27, 2015 19:54:58 GMT -5
Yes but ACC champion has been hosting for the last 4 years and will host again! But that's probably b/c those teams met the criteria for hosting .... and not b/c they were conference champions ... just sayin' ... |
|
|
|
Post by flvoldad on Nov 27, 2015 19:57:48 GMT -5
I am sorry to the Minnesota fan..but you can't have 8 PAC teams and 8 big teams hosting...I know you think that's the way it should be ..but it won't. Also Hawaii fan..you won't host anyone...sorry
|
|
|
|
Post by brahmin on Nov 27, 2015 20:14:06 GMT -5
Northern Iowa loses to Wichita State in MVC semifinals. They are probably toast with their bubble aspirations.
|
|
trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 31,517 
|
Post by trojansc on Nov 27, 2015 20:35:31 GMT -5
Kentucky, if they were hoping for an outside shot at seeding, are hurting themselves right now. Down 1-2 at Auburn.
|
|
|
|
Post by brahmin on Nov 27, 2015 20:45:26 GMT -5
Kentucky, if they were hoping for an outside shot at seeding, are hurting themselves right now. Down 1-2 at Auburn. Actually it is a home game for Kentucky. |
|
trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 31,517
|
Post by trojansc on Nov 27, 2015 20:49:25 GMT -5
Kentucky, if they were hoping for an outside shot at seeding, are hurting themselves right now. Down 1-2 at Auburn. Actually it is a home game for Kentucky. Even worse!! |
|
|
|
Post by n00b on Nov 27, 2015 21:14:12 GMT -5
Northern Iowa loses to Wichita State in MVC semifinals. They are probably toast with their bubble aspirations. RPI will still be around 53. With three wins over tournament teams (Creighton, Missouri St, Southern Illinois), I don't think they're out of the conversation. |
|
|
|
Post by mikegarrison on Nov 27, 2015 23:04:41 GMT -5
Washington will be the AQ for the PAC-12 if they beat WSU (tiebreaker is head-to-head sets won, which Washington wins 4-3). If Washington loses to WSU, USC will be the AQ.
|
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,300
|
Post by bluepenquin on Nov 27, 2015 23:04:49 GMT -5
My updated regional seeds are 1 Minnesota 8 Penn State 9 Florida 16 Louisville 2 USC 7 Texas A&M 10 Stanford 15 Missouri 3 Texas 6 Nebraska 11 Kansas 14 Ohio State 4 Washington 5 Wisconsin 12 UCLA 13 BYU Using these as the seeds and running a sim, I get the following national championship probabilities: Washington 49.6% Southern California 24.6% Penn St. 12.8% Nebraska 3.4% Minnesota 3.3% Texas 2.4% Kansas 1.1% Florida 0.9% BYU 0.7% Stanford 0.6% Wisconsin 0.4% UCLA 0.2% Louisville 0% Texas A&M 0% Missouri 0% Ohio St. 0% github.com/octonion/volleyball-w/blob/master/ncaa_pbp/tournament/champion_p.csvHere is the % chance of winning the NC per Pablo rating - assuming these 16 teams win their subregional (no HCA calculated).
USC 28.92%
Washington 28.55%
Texas 14.80%
Minnesota 7.09%
Penn State 4.40%
Nebraska 4.28%
Stanford 4.15%
Wisconsin 3.73%
BYU 1.31%
Kansas 1.13%
UCLA 0.75%
Louisville 0.40%
Florida 0.22%
Ohio State 0.22%
Texas A&M 0.04%
Missouri 0.02%
|
|
|
|
Post by huskerjen on Nov 28, 2015 0:00:56 GMT -5
Here is the % chance of winning the NC per Pablo rating - assuming these 16 teams win their subregional (no HCA calculated).
USC 28.92%
Washington 28.55%
Texas 14.80%
Minnesota 7.09%
Penn State 4.40%
Nebraska 4.28%
Stanford 4.15%
Wisconsin 3.73%
BYU 1.31%
Kansas 1.13%
UCLA 0.75%
Louisville 0.40%
Florida 0.22%
Ohio State 0.22%
Texas A&M 0.04%
Missouri 0.02%
That makes more sense. |
|
|
|
Post by Babar on Nov 28, 2015 7:38:58 GMT -5
So will Florida be seeded above Texas A&M? I would bet not but there are a plethora of reasons to seed A+M higher. The NCAA volleyball committee does not take plethoras into consideration.  |
|
|
|
Post by brahmin on Nov 28, 2015 8:49:16 GMT -5
Bubble questions for today.
Colorado finished at 11-9 in Pac-12 play, with a crappy RPI number, will they get in at 5th place in the conference? In my mind yes they will.
Does Oregon get in by being a .500 team in the Pac-12? They are ahead of Arizona and Arizona State in the conference standings, but both of those teams appear to be in. I think that the Ducks will get in due to the tough conference.
Michigan State could do the same if they beat Iowa today with the Big Ten. They would be above Michigan in the conference standings as well.
Which of the ACC three get in (Miami is already in in my mind)? Syracuse, Pittsburgh or Virginia. I am leaning Syracuse and Pittsburgh, but not Virginia, due to the better conference records.
Kansas State is probably in a must win game today. A loss would put them even with TCU in the Big 12 standings.
Can Boise State get in with a Kansas State loss or will it be TCU?
|
|
|
|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 28, 2015 9:27:06 GMT -5
Northern Iowa loses to Wichita State in MVC semifinals. They are probably toast with their bubble aspirations. RPI will still be around 53. With three wins over tournament teams (Creighton, Missouri St, Southern Illinois), I don't think they're out of the conversation. Really? I find it hard to believe that with only 3 wins over tournament teams they would be in the conversation. And the loss to Ill-Chic |
|
|
|
Post by s0uthie on Nov 28, 2015 10:56:42 GMT -5
RPI will still be around 53. With three wins over tournament teams (Creighton, Missouri St, Southern Illinois), I don't think they're out of the conversation. Really? I find it hard to believe that with only 3 wins over tournament teams they would be in the conversation. And the loss to Ill-Chic Agreed, especially with teams like Michigan State, Oregon, and maybe Colorado hanging about in that general range. |
|
