FINALIZED Bracketology (11/28) [includes AQ's]

[bluepenquin]

Nov 25, 2015 12:26:29 GMT -5 badgerbreath said:

Some tasty matchups in the first round there.
UNC v Miami
Purdue v ASU

Then there are some pretty even local rivalries
Kentucky v WKU
Iowa State v Creighton
Wichita State v KSU

Crap!  Scratch that (what was I thinking), UNC and Miami cannot be in the same subregional.  UNC will have to be flown somewhere much farther away - probably a PAC school.

[badgerbreath]

Nov 25, 2015 12:36:02 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 25, 2015 12:26:29 GMT -5 badgerbreath said:

Some tasty matchups in the first round there.
UNC v Miami
Purdue v ASU

Then there are some pretty even local rivalries
Kentucky v WKU
Iowa State v Creighton
Wichita State v KSU

Crap!  Scratch that (what was I thinking), UNC and Miami cannot be in the same subregional.  UNC will have to be flown somewhere much farther away - probably a PAC school.

So they do try to separate teams from the same conference at the subregional stage? That makes sense but I wasn't aware it was a hard and fast rule.

[redbeard2008]

Nov 25, 2015 12:36:02 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 25, 2015 12:26:29 GMT -5 badgerbreath said:

Some tasty matchups in the first round there.
UNC v Miami
Purdue v ASU

Then there are some pretty even local rivalries
Kentucky v WKU
Iowa State v Creighton
Wichita State v KSU

Crap!  Scratch that (what was I thinking), UNC and Miami cannot be in the same subregional.  UNC will have to be flown somewhere much farther away - probably a PAC school.

You mean, probably to Seattle...

[HawaiiVB]

The Pac 12 did come a knockin to UH long before. When it was the Pac8. Before the football money and creation of power conferences. UH did not want to make the move because it had no money to improve the campuses. UH is money poor. But I think UH could make a move, if the Pac12 would buy into the idea that UH also has a very favorable TV audience in both the Pacific Island nations and Asiana. If combined, the tv reach for the pac12 would be in the millions.

[redbeard2008]

Nov 25, 2015 14:42:53 GMT -5 HawaiiVB said:

The Pac 12 did come a knockin to UH long before. When it was the Pac8. Before the football money and creation of power conferences. UH did not want to make the move because it had no money to improve the campuses. UH is money poor. But I think UH could make a move, if the Pac12 would buy into the idea that UH also has a very favorable TV audience in both the Pacific Island nations and Asiana. If combined, the tv reach for the pac12 would be in the millions.

How long before, exactly. The two big problems with Hawaii in the Pac has been: 1) lower academic status and 2) lack of a travel partner.

Hawaii fans need to just forget about the Pac - it's a fantasy - and start focusing on how to get out of the Big West and into the WCC.

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 25, 2015 12:06:38 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Here is how I am seeing the bracket as of now. This has the maximum # of drive-ins - although there are probably another 100 other ways to have the same number of drive-ins. If these are the 16 hosts, then there will be more flying this year than last. Last 4 in - TCU, Oregon, Villanova, Boise State, Last 4 out - Long Beach State, Wyoming, Arkansas, Michigan State. RP Index as I see it ending the season in parenthesis.

San Diego
1) USC (2): Loyola Marymount (29), UNCW (60), Northern Arizona (34), Furman (95)
16) BYU (13): Hawaii (26), Boise State (46), American (70)

8) Florida (5): North Carolina (21), Miami (42), UNCW (60), Coastal Carolina (85)
9) UCLA (11): San Diego (25), Northern Arizona (34), North Carolina (21), New Mexico State (68)

Lexington
4) Wisconsin (4): Arizona (44), Marquette (37), Fairfield (174)
13) Louisville (16): Kentucky (18), Western Kentucky (17), Belmont (178)

5) Washington (6): Michigan (30), Lipscomb (54), Harvard (145)
12) Kansas (9): Purdue (32), Arizona State (35), Missouri State (39)

Des Moines
3) Minnesota (3): Iowa State (24), Creighton (19), New Hampshire (154)
14) Missouri (14): Illinois (23), Arkansas State (20), Southern Illinois (38)

6) Nebraska (7): Wichita State (33), Kansas State (41), Denver (84)
11) Stanford (12): Colorado State (28), Santa Clara (36), Howard (226)

Austin
2) Texas (1): SMU (31), Oregon (50), Jackson State (313)
15) Ohio State (15): Dayton (27), Ohio (53), Cleveland State (74)

7) Penn State (8): Pittsburgh (43), Villanova (45), Robert Morris (209)
10) Texas A&M (10): Florida State (22), TCU (48), Texas A&M Corpus Christi (72)

I can't help but notice that Eugene-Salt Lake and Tucson-Houston (A&M) are the only options for direct commercial flights to seeded hosts. How much travel planning does the Committee do?

[bluepenquin]

Nov 25, 2015 15:27:03 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Nov 25, 2015 12:06:38 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Here is how I am seeing the bracket as of now. This has the maximum # of drive-ins - although there are probably another 100 other ways to have the same number of drive-ins. If these are the 16 hosts, then there will be more flying this year than last. Last 4 in - TCU, Oregon, Villanova, Boise State, Last 4 out - Long Beach State, Wyoming, Arkansas, Michigan State. RP Index as I see it ending the season in parenthesis.

San Diego
1) USC (2): Loyola Marymount (29), UNCW (60), Northern Arizona (34), Furman (95)
16) BYU (13): Hawaii (26), Boise State (46), American (70)

8) Florida (5): North Carolina (21), Miami (42), UNCW (60), Coastal Carolina (85)
9) UCLA (11): San Diego (25), Northern Arizona (34), North Carolina (21), New Mexico State (68)

Lexington
4) Wisconsin (4): Arizona (44), Marquette (37), Fairfield (174)
13) Louisville (16): Kentucky (18), Western Kentucky (17), Belmont (178)

5) Washington (6): Michigan (30), Lipscomb (54), Harvard (145)
12) Kansas (9): Purdue (32), Arizona State (35), Missouri State (39)

Des Moines
3) Minnesota (3): Iowa State (24), Creighton (19), New Hampshire (154)
14) Missouri (14): Illinois (23), Arkansas State (20), Southern Illinois (38)

6) Nebraska (7): Wichita State (33), Kansas State (41), Denver (84)
11) Stanford (12): Colorado State (28), Santa Clara (36), Howard (226)

Austin
2) Texas (1): SMU (31), Oregon (50), Jackson State (313)
15) Ohio State (15): Dayton (27), Ohio (53), Cleveland State (74)

7) Penn State (8): Pittsburgh (43), Villanova (45), Robert Morris (209)
10) Texas A&M (10): Florida State (22), TCU (48), Texas A&M Corpus Christi (72)

I can't help but notice that Eugene-Salt Lake and Tucson-Houston (A&M) are the only options for direct commercial flights to seeded hosts. How much travel planning does the Committee do? 

Interesting - something worth testing once the selections come out?  Didn't the committee send BYU to Arizona as opposed to Oregon last year?  Seems like they could have easily done that if direct flight was a consideration.

[Deleted]

I don't see how Oregon gets in, but I took your word for it.

Obviously, beating ASU is a must.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 25, 2015 13:24:56 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Nov 25, 2015 12:36:02 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Crap!  Scratch that (what was I thinking), UNC and Miami cannot be in the same subregional.  UNC will have to be flown somewhere much farther away - probably a PAC school.

You mean, probably to Seattle...

In looking at potential possibilities - I don't know how one of these teams doesn't end up in Seattle:

Hawaii, North Carolina, Purdue, Michigan, Florida State, Miami, Colorado State - I think one of the 1st 4 on the list is most likely.

[southie]

Nov 25, 2015 12:06:38 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Here is how I am seeing the bracket as of now. This has the maximum # of drive-ins - although there are probably another 100 other ways to have the same number of drive-ins. If these are the 16 hosts, then there will be more flying this year than last. Last 4 in - TCU, Oregon, Villanova, Boise State, Last 4 out - Long Beach State, Wyoming, Arkansas, Michigan State. RP Index as I see it ending the season in parenthesis.

San Diego
1) USC (2): Loyola Marymount (29), UNCW (60), Northern Arizona (34), Furman (95)
16) BYU (13): Hawaii (26), Boise State (46), American (70)

8) Florida (5): North Carolina (21), Miami (42), UNCW (60), Coastal Carolina (85)
9) UCLA (11): San Diego (25), Northern Arizona (34), North Carolina (21), New Mexico State (68)

Lexington
4) Wisconsin (4): Arizona (44), Marquette (37), Fairfield (174)
13) Louisville (16): Kentucky (18), Western Kentucky (17), Belmont (178)

5) Washington (6): Michigan (30), Lipscomb (54), Harvard (145)
12) Kansas (9): Purdue (32), Arizona State (35), Missouri State (39)

Des Moines
3) Minnesota (3): Iowa State (24), Creighton (19), New Hampshire (154)
14) Missouri (14): Illinois (23), Arkansas State (20), Southern Illinois (38)

6) Nebraska (7): Wichita State (33), Kansas State (41), Denver (84)
11) Stanford (12): Colorado State (28), Santa Clara (36), Howard (226)

Austin
2) Texas (1): SMU (31), Oregon (50), Jackson State (313)
15) Ohio State (15): Dayton (27), Ohio (53), Cleveland State (74)

7) Penn State (8): Pittsburgh (43), Villanova (45), Robert Morris (209)
10) Texas A&M (10): Florida State (22), TCU (48), Texas A&M Corpus Christi (72)

Pretty good stuff there overall.

But, you've got to give Wisconsin someone stronger than the #44 team and Penn State someone stronger than #43. #28 Colorado State could be sent to Wisconsin, and #21 North Carolina could be sent to PSU. Florida getting #22 Florida State makes sense.

Minnesota, Mizzou, Stanford, Louisville, and Nebraska sub-regionals seem overloaded compared to others. Minnesota sub-regional, especially. ISU or Creighton could easily go to Wisconsin instead of #44 Arizona.

[tenfootline]

At the risk of sounding stupid.....why so much talk about schools driving and trying to balance that out?

[bluepenquin]

Nov 25, 2015 16:11:08 GMT -5 southie said:

Nov 25, 2015 12:06:38 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Pretty good stuff there overall.

But, you've got to give Wisconsin someone stronger than the #44 team and Penn State someone stronger than #43. #28 Colorado State could be sent to Wisconsin, and #21 North Carolina could be sent to PSU. Florida getting #22 Florida State makes sense.

Minnesota, Mizzou, Stanford, Louisville, and Nebraska sub-regionals seem overloaded compared to others. Minnesota sub-regional, especially. ISU or Creighton could easily go to Wisconsin instead of #44 Arizona.

Creighton cannot go to Wisconsin w/o increasing flying - they are outside the mileage.  ISU could go to Wisconsin - but then that will require Wisconsin to be in Des Moines region (which I think is a possibility of happening and Minnesota going to Lexington).  It doesn't appear in the past that the committee has RP I balanced subs.  Someone or a couple teams will just get 'easy' subregionals.  Yes, I can see these things you mentioned happening (except Creighton).

[tenfootline]

Nov 25, 2015 16:25:03 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 25, 2015 16:11:08 GMT -5 southie said:

Pretty good stuff there overall.

But, you've got to give Wisconsin someone stronger than the #44 team and Penn State someone stronger than #43. #28 Colorado State could be sent to Wisconsin, and #21 North Carolina could be sent to PSU. Florida getting #22 Florida State makes sense.

Minnesota, Mizzou, Stanford, Louisville, and Nebraska sub-regionals seem overloaded compared to others. Minnesota sub-regional, especially. ISU or Creighton could easily go to Wisconsin instead of #44 Arizona.

Creighton cannot go to Wisconsin w/o increasing flying - they are outside the mileage.  ISU could go to Wisconsin - but then that will require Wisconsin to be in Des Moines region (which I think is a possibility of happening and Minnesota going to Lexington).  It doesn't appear in the past that the committee has RP I balanced subs.  Someone or a couple teams will just get 'easy' subregionals.  Yes, I can see these things you mentioned happening (except Creighton).

Bluepenguin

Can you tell me what the concern with driving versus flying is for the committee? Are they on the hook for air travel? Thanks.

[n00b]

Nov 25, 2015 16:28:26 GMT -5 tenfootline said:

Nov 25, 2015 16:25:03 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Creighton cannot go to Wisconsin w/o increasing flying - they are outside the mileage.  ISU could go to Wisconsin - but then that will require Wisconsin to be in Des Moines region (which I think is a possibility of happening and Minnesota going to Lexington).  It doesn't appear in the past that the committee has RP I balanced subs.  Someone or a couple teams will just get 'easy' subregionals.  Yes, I can see these things you mentioned happening (except Creighton).

Bluepenguin

Can you tell me what the concern with driving versus flying is for the committee? Are they on the hook for air travel? Thanks.

The committee's bracketing process is:

1) Pick (and rank) the 16 best teams. These teams will host subregionals.

2) Place the other 48 teams into those 16 subregionals, minimizing the number of flights. The NCAA will pay for flights on trips over 400 miles. Also in this step, they need to make sure all regional hosts are in the region they're hosting and to avoid intraconference matchups in rounds 1 & 2.

Thus, geography plays a large roll in where the unseeded teams get sent for the first two rounds.

[redbeard2008]

Nov 25, 2015 16:05:23 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 25, 2015 13:24:56 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

You mean, probably to Seattle...

In looking at potential possibilities - I don't know how one of these teams doesn't end up in Seattle:

Hawaii, North Carolina, Purdue, Michigan, Florida State, Miami, Colorado State - I think one of the 1st 4 on the list is most likely.

Yeah, the first one. I'm thinking that two or three of the first four are quite possible, although they do tend to throw at least one tail dragger our way.