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Post by ay2013 on Nov 2, 2017 0:23:54 GMT -5
Updates to bracket predictions based on today’s top 10? As of TODAY (not month end) I'd say 11- Utah 12- Michigan State 13- Colorado 14- Iowa State 15- Kansas 16- USC Sorry Creighton.
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 2, 2017 0:26:03 GMT -5
Updates to bracket predictions based on today’s top 10? 1. Penn State 16. USC 8. Washington 9. Oregon 4. Stanford 13. Iowa State 5. Kentucky 12. Kansas 3. Minnesota 14. Utah 6. Florida 11. Michigan State 2. Nebraska 15. Creighton 7. Texas 10. Wisconsin By this, Penn State wouldn't have a bad draw. Stanford either, IMO. That Lincoln regional would be slammed, and the Cornhusker state would be in quite a frenzy with a Creighton/Nebraska game and then and Elite 8 game with Wiscy or Texas. Yikes...Minnesota will have a battle to get through their regional as well. I still think Washington has time to rise...probably right in to the Lincoln regional. Nebraska at #3 before it's over and Washington at #6 Texas to #8 sounds good to me. Send em' to State College...I think Creighton is pretty much set on ending up in Lincoln one way or another. A loss to Marquette would probably drop them out of hosting, but still place them in Lincoln sub-regional. I think Wisconsin will increase as well...maybe #7? Wisconsin's problem is that they have very little opportunity to get top 25 wins at this point. they currently have 2, Louisville will play with not being top 25 by season end, and they only have three more opportunities to get those wins v Penn State, @ Illinois and @ Purdue (who might not be top 25 by season end either)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2017 0:32:12 GMT -5
trojansc : I got 4 seeds correct, predicted the top three would be B1G teams, and 9/10 teams right overall (only missing Oregon). Do I still suck well, you weren't all that clear on whether you are predicting season end (seems like it) or what the early top 10 would look like, those are two different questions. The former presupposes what the committee will do with past results AND make predictions about future results, the latter only relies on past results. I also don't think it's all that remarkable to have "predicted" 9 out of 10, considering 8 of them were a damn near given. Also, most people had at least two Big 10 teams in the top 3. I had those 3 big 10 teams in the top 3 in my initial guess and that was prior to last weekends matches. can't I just get a nice lil pat on the back please this isn't my forte I'll just stick to my all-america picks
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2017 0:33:55 GMT -5
Updates to bracket predictions based on today’s top 10? As of TODAY (not month end) I'd say 11- Utah 12- Michigan State 13- Colorado 14- Iowa State 15- Kansas 16- USC Sorry Creighton. Break this down for me
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 2, 2017 0:39:19 GMT -5
well, you weren't all that clear on whether you are predicting season end (seems like it) or what the early top 10 would look like, those are two different questions. The former presupposes what the committee will do with past results AND make predictions about future results, the latter only relies on past results. I also don't think it's all that remarkable to have "predicted" 9 out of 10, considering 8 of them were a damn near given. Also, most people had at least two Big 10 teams in the top 3. I had those 3 big 10 teams in the top 3 in my initial guess and that was prior to last weekends matches. can't I just get a nice lil pat on the back please this isn't my forte I'll just stick to my all-america picks ok, pat
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 2, 2017 1:14:18 GMT -5
As of TODAY (not month end) I'd say 11- Utah 12- Michigan State 13- Colorado 14- Iowa State 15- Kansas 16- USC Sorry Creighton. Break this down for me you mean why Creighton is out, right this second? well....despite a win over Kansas, I have a hard time seeing Kansas out right now, though their stock is falling, IMO. And I suppose compared to USC, USC has more wins against RPI top 25 and top 50, Iowa State pretty much equals Creighton's resume but wins in the H2H
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2017 1:18:06 GMT -5
you mean why Creighton is out, right this second? well....despite a win over Kansas, I have a hard time seeing Kansas out right now, though their stock is falling, IMO. And I suppose compared to USC, USC has more wins against RPI top 25 and top 50, Iowa State pretty much equals Creighton's resume but wins in the H2H No, break down your reasoning for each seed
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 2, 2017 1:18:59 GMT -5
I'd like to give a big round of applause to the Pac-12 and the scheduling it did. With a consistent 7 teams in the top 25 RPI, the ability for the conference to beat up each other AND ADD VALUE is something we really haven't seen over the last few years. The strength of the Pac-12 1 thru about 8 is what has allowed Stanford to have an early top 4 ranking, despite having almost no real preseason to boast about, in fact, as of right now, they have the WORST SOS of any team in the top 16. The amount of significant wins the conference will be able to present to the conference is outrageous for a west coast conference, and I believe that we could possibly be 6 Pac-12 seeds, which is ridiculous. To say that we pretty much matched the Big 10 in value of conference in the RPI is a big accomplishment, because that hasn't really happened since Nebraska decided to leave the Big 12.
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 2, 2017 1:38:05 GMT -5
you mean why Creighton is out, right this second? well....despite a win over Kansas, I have a hard time seeing Kansas out right now, though their stock is falling, IMO. And I suppose compared to USC, USC has more wins against RPI top 25 and top 50, Iowa State pretty much equals Creighton's resume but wins in the H2H No, break down your reasoning for each seed Ah.... Utah- #12 in the aggregate RPI, 4 top 25 wins, 8 top 50 wins, preseason wins against RPI 25 team San Diego, all losses will be to team in or flirting in the 25 MSU- #14 in the aggregate RPI, 3 top 25 wins but arguably the BEST top 35 wins in this group as they are to team seeded above them...preseason was crappy, including a loss to a current 11-12 Georgia Tech Colorado- Sleeper here, sure, BUT, currently #15 in the aggregate RPI, they can dangle 4 top 25 wins in the committees face, only preseason loss came to PSU, they have a pretty solid record against good RPI teams over the last few weeks Iowa State- I think historically the RPI tends to overrate the Big 12 conference, in particular because they get to play more matches OOC and fewer matches in conference, but this year, they are getting it more right. Iowa State has wins over other possible seed contenders (Creighton and WSU) but they have fewer top 25 and top 50 wins. One only needs to look at a team like Florida at #6 to see that the significant wins criteria MATTERS Kansas- Their stock is falling some, and, like Iowa State, and Florida and Kentucky in the SEC, I just don't think the big 12 is going Kansas big favors this year. Only 3 top 25 wins, they are here right now because they have the fewest losses among this crop of teams (ISU notwithstanding) USC- Again, the strength of the Pac-12 in the RPI is pulling through. Despite an up and down preseason (I mean, Nebraska had that too, but they are #2!) and the most losses of any of the teams currently in decent consideration for a seed, they can still bring to the table 4 top 25 RPI wins, 3 of them on the road, 9 top 50 wins, a tie breaker win over Creighton
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Post by gobruins on Nov 3, 2017 2:46:56 GMT -5
Here was my post in its entirety, word for word: "No way USD gets seeded over USC/UCLA. San Diego has just one top 25 win, and 3 other top 50 wins. Missouri and Hawaii might not even be top 50 at season end...." I had no other issues with your seedings because they are all plausible results. San Diego being seeded is not a plausible result to me. The rest I wouldn't change much. I have your 15 seeds + (USC/UCLA). Don't be messy for no reason now I just wanna be loved Man, are you in the wrong place for that!
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 3, 2017 2:50:59 GMT -5
Man, are you in the wrong place for that! 😂😂😂😂😂#WeFoundLoveInAHopelessPlace
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Post by n00b on Nov 3, 2017 8:25:00 GMT -5
I'd like to give a big round of applause to the Pac-12 and the scheduling it did. With a consistent 7 teams in the top 25 RPI, the ability for the conference to beat up each other AND ADD VALUE is something we really haven't seen over the last few years. The strength of the Pac-12 1 thru about 8 is what has allowed Stanford to have an early top 4 ranking, despite having almost no real preseason to boast about, in fact, as of right now, they have the WORST SOS of any team in the top 16. The amount of significant wins the conference will be able to present to the conference is outrageous for a west coast conference, and I believe that we could possibly be 6 Pac-12 seeds, which is ridiculous. To say that we pretty much matched the Big 10 in value of conference in the RPI is a big accomplishment, because that hasn't really happened since Nebraska decided to leave the Big 12. That's the upside of having four teams go almost winless against the top 8. The ranking of those bottom four drops, but it doesn't really matter if you pick up a win over #75 or #125. Meanwhile, those top 8 collectively pick up more wins.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 3, 2017 12:55:35 GMT -5
No, break down your reasoning for each seed Ah.... Utah- #12 in the aggregate RPI, 4 top 25 wins, 8 top 50 wins, preseason wins against RPI 25 team San Diego, all losses will be to team in or flirting in the 25 MSU- #14 in the aggregate RPI, 3 top 25 wins but arguably the BEST top 35 wins in this group as they are to team seeded above them...preseason was crappy, including a loss to a current 11-12 Georgia Tech Colorado- Sleeper here, sure, BUT, currently #15 in the aggregate RPI, they can dangle 4 top 25 wins in the committees face, only preseason loss came to PSU, they have a pretty solid record against good RPI teams over the last few weeks Iowa State- I think historically the RPI tends to overrate the Big 12 conference, in particular because they get to play more matches OOC and fewer matches in conference, but this year, they are getting it more right. Iowa State has wins over other possible seed contenders (Creighton and WSU) but they have fewer top 25 and top 50 wins. One only needs to look at a team like Florida at #6 to see that the significant wins criteria MATTERS Kansas- Their stock is falling some, and, like Iowa State, and Florida and Kentucky in the SEC, I just don't think the big 12 is going Kansas big favors this year. Only 3 top 25 wins, they are here right now because they have the fewest losses among this crop of teams (ISU notwithstanding) USC- Again, the strength of the Pac-12 in the RPI is pulling through. Despite an up and down preseason (I mean, Nebraska had that too, but they are #2!) and the most losses of any of the teams currently in decent consideration for a seed, they can still bring to the table 4 top 25 RPI wins, 3 of them on the road, 9 top 50 wins, a tie breaker win over Creighton The PAC increased its OOC w/l% from 754 last year to 825 this year. The B1G also increased from 772 last year to 826 this year. The SEC increased from 686 to 728. The Big 12 dropped from 739 to 712. This sort of helps explain the issues Texas and Kansas are facing in terms of RPI and maybe more importantly in Top 25 and 50 wins (there is a relationship).
The key is how the teams at the bottom of the conference do in the OOC. The SEC and Big 12 have traditionally been very good at this. The Big Ten has also been good, and this is where the PAC has made up the gap. Now it becomes easy if their is consistency in which teams are in the bottom - and that played a role in the Big 12 'problems' this year. The B1G has had a lot of consistency - not necessarily the PAC. Lack of consistency makes it harder (would be my theory).
Examples of this year's OOC w/l % for the bottom of the conferences (Pablo rank in parenthesis).
Kansas State (72) 7-6 Oklahoma (110) 3-10 TCU (92) 8-4 Texas Tech (84) 11-2
This is worse than usual - and part of the problem is related to the decline from Kansas State and TCU. And a lot is related to Oklahoma.
Cal (61) 9-2 Arizona (71) 6-3 Arizona State (77) 10-2
These are really good records for teams 10-12 in the conference. ASU's record is way better than last year as is Cal (although Cal is probably a much better team than last year).
Northwestern (62) 10-2 Indiana (101) 11-1 Rutgers (243) 5-7
Rutgers is such a horrible team for a P5 conference - yet a record that doesn't kill the rest of the conference. Indiana has a much better record than K-State or TCU, yet not as good per Pablo.
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Post by southie on Nov 3, 2017 13:45:10 GMT -5
Especially Kansas State. They were the #14 national seed last season, I believe. But, Baylor was not ranked as high last season as this season, correct? So, that helps a bit this year, but doesn't make up completely for KSU's decline.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 3, 2017 18:37:51 GMT -5
Miami up 1-0 on Pittsburgh College of Charleston up 1-0 on Towson Villanova up 1-0 on Seton Hall
Butler beat Xavier today, amping the pressure up on the SHU/Nova match
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