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Post by FreeBall on Oct 30, 2017 23:43:13 GMT -5
still think CP will have too good of a RPI to go to Stanford (unless they lose 1-2 coming in). my bet is still on Hawaii to Stanford & maybe a team like Arkansas or NC State Aren’t there no “seeds” after 16? Do they actually try to balance like a fully-seeded draw? Last year (and maybe to a lesser extent the year before), they seemed to make a real effort to pair the lowest rated AQ teams with the seeded teams in the 1st round. This results in de-facto 4 seeds. However, I have seen no indication that the committee tries to achieve balance in the way they assign the middle 32 teams into the bracket. It's done geographically to the greatest extent possible. |
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Post by Fight On! on Oct 30, 2017 23:56:29 GMT -5
Aren’t there no “seeds” after 16? Do they actually try to balance like a fully-seeded draw? while that is true - still Poly is closer to LA - and they'd be aware of Poly's RPI close to 16 but one never knows with the NCAA Like 193 vs 204 miles. |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Oct 31, 2017 0:00:43 GMT -5
while that is true - still Poly is closer to LA - and they'd be aware of Poly's RPI close to 16 but one never knows with the NCAA Like 193 vs 204 miles. [/quote hey, we're talking bout the NCAA |
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Post by gobruins on Oct 31, 2017 5:08:41 GMT -5
The more like scenario, in those circumstances (USC and Stanford are the only California hosts), is that Cal Poly goes to Stanford, while USD goes to USC. still think CP will have too good of a RPI to go to Stanford (unless they lose 1-2 coming in). my bet is still on Hawaii to Stanford & maybe a team like Arkansas or NC State Even if that does happen (Hawaii is still a longshot to make the tournament), it is not really a problem for USC. Poly and USD would play each other in the 1st round. USC would get the creampuff first round. So, USC would only have to play one of Poly or USD in the 2nd round. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 31, 2017 5:13:25 GMT -5
Aren’t there no “seeds” after 16? Do they actually try to balance like a fully-seeded draw? while that is true - still Poly is closer to LA - and they'd be aware of Poly's RPI close to 16 but one never knows with the NCAA No way. There are no f*cks given by the committee when it comes to putting the #17 team into the subregional of the #1 team as long as it helps them meet their 400 mile rules. |
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 31, 2017 12:14:28 GMT -5
Big 10 team probabilities.
This shows, if Penn State wins 19 conference matches (there is a 26% chance of that happening), their average RPI Future rank is 1.1. They would finish 1st in RPI 95% of the time.
1. Penn State - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 2.385 (1) T4 - 87% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
19W (26%), Avg Rank - 1.1: 1st (95%), 2nd (5%)
18W (41%), Avg Rank - 1.8; 1st (41%), 2nd (43%), 3rd (12%)
17W (26%), Avg Rank - 3.6; 2nd (17%), 3rd (24%), 4th (30%), 5th (20%), 4th or better (75%)
16W (7%), Avg Rank - 5.9; 4th (9%), 5th (21%), 6th (33%), 4th or better (11%)
3. Minnesota - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 3.598 (3) T4 - 67% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
18W (19%), Avg Rank - 1.3; 1st (76%), 2nd (18%)
17W (41%), Avg Rank - 2.9; 2nd (24%), 3rd (32%), 4th or better (90%)
16W (28%), Avg Rank - 4.9; 3rd (12%), 4th (22%), 5th (29%), 4th or better (38%)
15W (10%), Avg Rank - 6.6; 4th or better (3%)
7. Nebraska - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 5.485 (6) T4 - 23% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
19W (66%), Avg Rank - 5.1; 4th or better (23%)
18W (27%), Avg Rank - 6.2; 4th or better (5%)
17W (5%), Avg Rank - 7.3;
9. Wisconsin - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 9.822 (9) T4 - 0% T16 - 98% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
14W (11%), Avg Rank - 7.6; 7th (32%), 8th (46%)
13W (37%), Avg Rank - 8.6; 8th (43%), 9th (44%)
12W (34%), Avg Rank - 9.9;
11W (16%), Avg Rank - 12.7; 4th or better (97%)
12. Michigan State - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 13.408 (12) T4 - 0% T16 - 82% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
17W (6%), Avg Rank - 9.1;
16W (27%), Avg Rank - 10.4;
15W (35%), Avg Rank - 12.4; 16th or better (98%)
14W (24%), Avg Rank - 16.3; 16th or better (58%)
13W (24%), Avg Rank - 20.1;
24. Illinois - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 23.007 (24) T4 - 0% T16 - 12% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
13 W (17%), Avg Rank - 17.3; 16th or better (39%)
12W (29%), Avg Rank - 21.4; 16th or better (1%)
11W (28%), Avg Rank - 25.0;
10W (14%), Avg Rank - 28.3;
9W (5%), Avg Rank - 32.5;
27. Purdue - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 26.394 (26) T4 - 0% T16 - 4% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
13W (6%), Avg Rank - 16.6; 16th or better (44%)
12W (17%), Avg Rank - 21.3;
11W (29%), Avg Rank - 24.8;
10W (29%), Avg Rank - 28.5;
9W (15%), Avg Rank - 33.4;
32. Michigan - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 33.184 (32) T4 - 0% T16 - <1% T45 - 97% T90 - 100%
11W (14%), Avg Rank - 26.6;
10W (30%), Avg Rank - 30.1;
9W (29%), Avg Rank - 34.1;
8W (19%), Avg Rank - 40.3; 45th or better (97%)
42. Ohio State - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 42.566 (42) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 65% T90 - 100%
10W (4%), Avg Rank - 29.9;
9W (18%), Avg Rank - 34.6;
8W (35%), Avg Rank - 40.3; Below .500 overall record
7W (31%), Avg Rank - 47.3; Below .500 overall record
6W (11%), Avg Rank - 54.4; Below .500 overall record
43. Iowa - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 43.041 (43) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 64% T90 - 100%
9W (14%), Avg Rank - 33.5;
8W (32%), Avg Rank - 38.7; 45th or better (99%)
7W (31%), Avg Rank - 45.6; 45th or better (51%)
6W (16%), Avg Rank - 52.4; 45th or better (1%)
44. Maryland - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 43.613 (44) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 61% T90 - 100%
9W (5%), Avg Rank - 31.2;
8W (21%), Avg Rank - 36.2;
7W (40%), Avg Rank - 42.8; 45th or better (81%)
6W (27%), Avg Rank - 49.7; 45th or better (8%)
5W (7%), Avg Rank - 56.1;
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 31, 2017 12:15:05 GMT -5
Here is the PAC 12
5. Stanford - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 4.406 (4) T4 - 54% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
20W (24%), Avg Rank - 2.2; 1st (21%), 2nd (45%), 3rd (28%), 4th or better (99%)
19W (40%), Avg Rank - 4.0; 3rd (29%), 4th (30%), 5th (21%), 4th or better (67%)
18W (25%), Avg Rank - 6.0; 5th (21%), 6th (31%), 7th (24%), 4th or better (10%)
17W (9%), Avg Rank - 7.2;
8. Washington - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 9.21 (8) T4 - 2% T16 - 99% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
15W (11%), Avg Rank - 6.9; 6th (23%), 7th (28%), 8th (36%)
14W (26%), Avg Rank - 7.9;
13W (30%), Avg Rank - 8.9;
12W (20%), Avg Rank - 11.0;
11W (8%), Avg Rank - 13.6; 16th or better (99%)
10. Oregon - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 12.094 (10) T4 - 0% T16 - 89% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
14W (9%), Avg Rank - 8.3;
13W (30%), Avg Rank - 9.6;
12W (30%), Avg Rank - 11.8;
11W (20%), Avg Rank - 14.7; (87%)
10W (8%), Avg Rank - 18.6; 16th or better (16%)
14. Utah - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 14.152 (11) T4 - 0% T16 - 73% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
15W (5%), Avg Rank - 8.3;
14W (16%), Avg Rank - 9.9;
13W (31%), Avg Rank - 12.5;
12W (30%), Avg Rank - 15.5; 16th or better (69%)
11W (15%), Avg Rank - 19.6;
16. USC - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 16.285 (16) T4 - 0% T16 - 55% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
15W (8%), Avg Rank - 9.8;
14W (22%), Avg Rank - 12.3;
13W (33%), Avg Rank - 15.6; 16th or better (67%)
12W (24%), Avg Rank - 19.6; 16th or better (7%)
11W (9%), Avg Rank - 22.8;
18. Colorado - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 18.895 (19) T4 - 0% T16 - 33% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
14W (10%), Avg Rank - 11.9; 16th (16%), 17th (18%), 16th or better (53%)
13W (24%), Avg Rank - 15.1; 16th or better (76%)
12W (31%), Avg Rank - 19.1; 16th or better (9%)
11W (23%), Avg Rank - 22.7;
10W (9%), Avg Rank - 26.3
22. UCLA - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 21.056 (20) T4 - 0% T16 - 21% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
13W (6%), Avg Rank - 12.2;
12W (21%), Avg Rank - 16.1; 116th or better (61%)
11W (29%), Avg Rank - 20.3; 16th or better (3%)
10W (26%), Avg Rank - 24.1;
9W (14%), Avg Rank - 27.6;
28. Oregon State - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 28.365 (28) T4 - 0% T16 - <1% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
12W (21%), Avg Rank - 23.4;
11W (29%), Avg Rank - 26.9;
10W (27%), Avg Rank - 30.1;
9W (14%), Avg Rank - 34.3;
45. Washington State - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 44.4 (45) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 54% T90 - 100%
7W (13%), Avg Rank - 33.6;
6W (27%), Avg Rank - 39.7; 45th or better (98%)
5W (34%), Avg Rank - 46.9; 45th or better (31%)
4W (19%), Avg Rank - 54.2; below .500 overall record
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 31, 2017 12:15:45 GMT -5
Here is the Big 12 - the rest tonight.
6. Texas - Big 12, Avg RPI Rank - 5.308 (7) T4 - 34% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
16W (31%), Avg Rank - 3.3; 2nd (21%), 3rd (36%), 4th (28%), 4th or better (87%)
15W (44%), Avg Rank - 5.6; 4th or better (16%)
14W (20%), Avg Rank - 7.0; 4th or better (1%)
11. Kansas - Big 12, Avg RPI Rank - 13.201 (13) T4 - 0% T16 - 84% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
14W (5%), Avg Rank - 8.9;
13W (31%), Avg Rank - 10.7;
12W (39%), Avg Rank - 12.8; 16th or better (98%)
11W (18%), Avg Rank - 16.3; 16th or better (53%)
10W (6%), Avg Rank - 20.2;
13. Iowa State - Big 12, Avg RPI Rank - 13.648 (14) T4 - 0% T16 - 79% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
13W (7%), Avg Rank - 9.0;
12W (29%), Avg Rank - 10.8;
11W (35%), Avg Rank - 13.4; 16th or better (94%)
10W (22%), Avg Rank - 17.0; 16th or better (45%)
9W (6%), Avg Rank - 20.3;
20. Baylor - Big 12, Avg RPI Rank - 20.818 (22) T4 - 0% T16 - 20% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
14W (6%), Avg Rank - 12.6;
13W (24%), Avg Rank - 16.6; 16th or better (52%)
12W (38%), Avg Rank - 20.8; 16th or better (3%)
11W (23%), Avg Rank - 24.8;
10W (8%), Avg Rank - 28.1
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Post by jake on Oct 31, 2017 19:02:10 GMT -5
What will it take for team CAL POLY to host a regional???
Perfect in BWC,...16-0?
A poor ending for the trojans, bruins and cardinals?
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Post by sisyphus on Oct 31, 2017 19:09:25 GMT -5
What will it take for team CAL POLY to host a regional??? Perfect in BWC,...16-0? A poor ending for the trojans, bruins and cardinals? Hosting a regional final? As in rounds of 16 and 8? Umm, starting over in a better conference or getting the committee to not use RPI. Don't think that they can be top 4 according to bluepenquin here (first page of the thread): Post LinkUntil the committee stops caring about RPI above all, Poly doesn't appear to have a chance this year. Not sure what all the other criteria are for hosting a regional final to know if they could meet those. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 31, 2017 19:11:51 GMT -5
What will it take for team CAL POLY to host a regional??? Perfect in BWC,...16-0? A poor ending for the trojans, bruins and cardinals? Well the problem is going to be that they will have an RPI near the range needed to be a seed, but they just don't have any wins over top teams. In most years, a couple of wins over Hawaii might have been enough, but not this year. They really needed to have beaten either Washington or Oregon. |
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Post by Fight On! on Oct 31, 2017 19:28:14 GMT -5
What will it take for team CAL POLY to host a regional??? Perfect in BWC,...16-0? A poor ending for the trojans, bruins and cardinals? Hosting a regional final? As in rounds of 16 and 8? Umm, starting over in a better conference or getting the committee to not use RPI. Don't think that they can be top 4 according to bluepenquin here (first page of the thread): Post LinkUntil the committee stops caring about RPI above all, Poly doesn't appear to have a chance this year. Not sure what all the other criteria are for hosting a regional final to know if they could meet those. I am sure he meant sub-regional |
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 31, 2017 21:41:29 GMT -5
SEC.
2. Kentucky - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 3.501 (2) T4 - 69% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
18W (14%), Avg Rank - 1.3; 1st (69%), 2nd (29%)
17W (33%), Avg Rank - 2.2; 1st (27%), 2nd (36%), 3rd (25%), 4th or better (97%)
16W (31%), Avg Rank - 4.0; 3rd (24%), 4th (27%), 5th (17%), 4th or better (65%)
15W (15%), Avg Rank - 5.7; (18%)
14W (5%), Avg Rank - 6.9; 4th or better (4%)
4. Florida - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 3.789 (5) T4 - 64% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
17W (25%), Avg Rank - 1.6; 1st (45%), 2nd (45%),
16W (43%), Avg Rank - 3.4; 4th or better (80%)
15W (23%), Avg Rank - 5.5; 4th or better (21%)
14W (8%), Avg Rank - 6.8;
35. Auburn - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 38.658 (34) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 81% T90 - 100%
10W (11%), Avg Rank - 28.4:
9W (26%), Avg Rank - 32.6;
8W (35%), Avg Rank - 39.7: 45th or better (99%)
7W (20%), Avg Rank - 46.3: 45th or better (40%)
6W (6%), Avg Rank - 55.5: below .500 overall record
38. Arkansas - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 40.737 (36) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 72% T90 - 100%
12W (5%), Avg Rank - 28.4:
11W (17%), Avg Rank - 32.11:
10W (31%), Avg Rank - 36.9:
9W (29%), Avg Rank - 44.41; 45th or better (64%)
8W (14%), Avg Rank - 51.8; 45th or better (3%)
39. LSU - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 41.429 (39) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 70% T90 - 100%
13W (9%), Avg Rank - 29.4:
12W (19%), Avg Rank - 33.7;
11W (31%), Avg Rank - 39.3; 45th or better (99%)
10W (25%), Avg Rank - 46.4; 45th or better (39%)
9W (12%), Avg Rank - 54.0;
40. Missouri - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 41.964 (40) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 68% T90 - 100%
13W (11%), Avg Rank - 31.7;
12W (27%), Avg Rank - 36.4;
11W (34%), Avg Rank - 42.8; 45th or better (78%)
10W (19%), Avg Rank - 49.9; 45th or better (8%)
9W (5%), Avg Rank - 58.0;
48. Texas A&M - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 46.757 (49) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 46% T90 - 100%
9W (10%), Avg Rank - 32.4; below .500 overall record
8W (25%), Avg Rank - 39.1; below .500 overall record
7W (33%), Avg Rank - 47.3; below .500 overall record
6W (23%), Avg Rank - 56.5; below .500 overall record
5W (6%), Avg Rank - 64.8; below .500 overall record
51. Alabama - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 49.699 (51) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 35% T90 - 100%
10W (7%), Avg Rank - 34.7:
9W (17%), Avg Rank - 40.3: 45th or better (97%)
8W (27%), Avg Rank - 46.8: 45th or better (35%)
7W (28%), Avg Rank - 53.9;
6W (14%), Avg Rank - 61.1;
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 31, 2017 21:42:01 GMT -5
ACC.
25. Louisville - ACC, Avg RPI Rank - 24.055 (25) T4 - 0% T16 - 1% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
18W (22%), Avg Rank - 19.9; 16th or better (5%)
17W (40%), Avg Rank - 23.1;
16W (26%), Avg Rank - 26.0;
15W (11%), Avg Rank - 29.4;
29. Pittsburgh - ACC, Avg RPI Rank - 30.432 (29) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
18W (32%), Avg Rank - 26.8;
17W (37%), Avg Rank - 29.9;
16W (24%), Avg Rank - 33.2;
15W (6%), Avg Rank - 38.9;
34. Notre Dame - ACC, Avg RPI Rank - 38.223 (35) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 85% T90 - 100%
14W (13%), Avg Rank - 30.1:
13W (34%), Avg Rank - 34.1:
12W (32%), Avg Rank - 39.7; 45th or better (96%)
11W (17%), Avg Rank - 46.1; 45th or better (46%)
36. NC State - ACC, Avg RPI Rank - 39.354 (37) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 83% T90 - 100%
17W (19%), Avg Rank - 32.1:
16W (34%), Avg Rank - 37.0;
15W (32%), Avg Rank - 42.8; 45th or better (82%)
14W (11%), Avg Rank - 49.6; 45th or better (10%)
37. Miami-FL - ACC, Avg RPI Rank - 39.456 (38) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 79% T90 - 100%
16W (5%), Avg Rank - 27.3:
15W (23%), Avg Rank - 31.8:
14W (33%), Avg Rank - 37.2:
13W (27%), Avg Rank - 44.4: 45th or better (69%)
12W (10%), Avg Rank - 52.5: 45th or better (1%)
50. Florida State - ACC, Avg RPI Rank - 48.231 (50) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 42% T90 - 100%
13W (12%), Avg Rank - 35.3:
12W (28%), Avg Rank - 41.9; 45th or better (91%)
11W (33%), Avg Rank - 49.5; 45th or better (10%)
10W (18%), Avg Rank - 57.4;
9W (7%), Avg Rank - 65.0;
62. North Carolina - ACC, Avg RPI Rank - 65.209 (62) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 3% T90 - 98%
14W (5%), Avg Rank - 45.8: 45th or better (50%)
13W (17%), Avg Rank - 54.0; 45th or better (2%)
12W (32%), Avg Rank - 61.3;
11W (29%), Avg Rank - 69.7;
10W (14%), Avg Rank - 79.4; below .500 overall record
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 31, 2017 21:42:35 GMT -5
WCC
21. BYU - West Coast, Avg RPI Rank - 20.93 (21) T4 - 0% T16 - 10% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
17W (47%), Avg Rank - 18.4; 16th or better (2%)
16W (38%), Avg Rank - 22.1; 16th or better (1%)
15W (12%), Avg Rank - 25.7;
23. San Diego - West Coast, Avg RPI Rank - 21.897 (23) T4 - 0% T16 - 8% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
17W (46%), Avg Rank - 19.25; 16th or better (17%)
16W (38%), Avg Rank - 23.1;
15W (14%), Avg Rank - 26.5;
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