RPI Futures -Week 10 (10/30/17)

[bluepenquin]

Big West.

19. Cal Poly - Big West, Avg RPI Rank - 19.247 (18) T4 - 0% T16 - 19% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
16W (77%), Avg Rank - 18.3; 16th or better (24%)
15W (21%), Avg Rank - 22.0; 16th or better (2%)

47. Hawaii - Big West, Avg RPI Rank - 46.145 (47) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 50% T90 - 100%
14W (32%), Avg Rank - 38.9; 45th or better (95%)
13W (45%), Avg Rank - 46.3; 45th or better (42%)
12W (20%), Avg Rank - 55.2; 45th or better (1%)

[bluepenquin]

Big East.

15. Creighton - Big East, Avg RPI Rank - 15.124 (15) T4 - 0% T16 - 69% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
17W (32%), Avg Rank - 12.1; 16th or better (98%)
16W (40%), Avg Rank - 14.9; 16th or better (78%)
15W (21%), Avg Rank - 18.3; 16th or better (28%)
14W (6%), Avg Rank - 21.6; 16th or better (5%)

31. Marquette - Big East, Avg RPI Rank - 32.308 (31) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 98% T90 - 100%
16W (21%), Avg Rank - 27.3;
15W (54%), Avg Rank - 31.5;
14W (22%), Avg Rank - 37.0; 45th or better (97%)

53. Butler - Big East, Avg RPI Rank - 52.361 (53) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 24% T90 - 100%
14W (9%), Avg Rank - 38.9; 45th or better (91%)
13W (34%), Avg Rank - 46.0; 45th or better (47%)
12W (37%), Avg Rank - 54.7; 45th or better (1%)
11W (17%), Avg Rank - 62.8;
10W (7%), Avg Rank - 72.4;

[bluepenquin]

MVC.

41. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley, Avg RPI Rank - 42.44 (41) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 69% T90 - 100%
16W (25%), Avg Rank - 36.0; 45th or better (98%)
15W (52%), Avg Rank - 42.1; 45th or better (80%)
14W (22%), Avg Rank - 49.2; 45th or better (18%)

46. Missouri State - Missouri Valley, Avg RPI Rank - 46.065 (46) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 50% T90 - 100%
18W (29%), Avg Rank - 38.5; 45th or better (95%)
17W (41%), Avg Rank - 45.1; 45th or better (53%)
16W (25%), Avg Rank - 52.7; 45th or better (7%)
15W (5%), Avg Rank - 60.0;

[Millennium]

Oct 31, 2017 12:14:28 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Big 10 team probabilities.

This shows, if Penn State wins 19 conference matches (there is a 26% chance of that happening), their average RPI Future rank is 1.1. They would finish 1st in RPI 95% of the time.

1. Penn State - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 2.385 (1) T4 - 87% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
19W (26%), Avg Rank - 1.1: 1st (95%), 2nd (5%)
18W (41%), Avg Rank - 1.8; 1st (41%), 2nd (43%), 3rd (12%)
17W (26%), Avg Rank - 3.6; 2nd (17%), 3rd (24%), 4th (30%), 5th (20%), 4th or better (75%)
16W (7%), Avg Rank - 5.9; 4th (9%), 5th (21%), 6th (33%), 4th or better (11%)

3. Minnesota - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 3.598 (3) T4 - 67% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
18W (19%), Avg Rank - 1.3; 1st (76%), 2nd (18%)
17W (41%), Avg Rank - 2.9; 2nd (24%), 3rd (32%), 4th or better (90%)
16W (28%), Avg Rank - 4.9; 3rd (12%), 4th (22%), 5th (29%), 4th or better (38%)
15W (10%), Avg Rank - 6.6; 4th or better (3%)

7. Nebraska - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 5.485 (6) T4 - 23% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
19W (66%), Avg Rank - 5.1; 4th or better (23%)
18W (27%), Avg Rank - 6.2; 4th or better (5%)
17W (5%), Avg Rank - 7.3;

9. Wisconsin - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 9.822 (9) T4 - 0% T16 - 98% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
14W (11%), Avg Rank - 7.6; 7th (32%), 8th (46%)
13W (37%), Avg Rank - 8.6; 8th (43%), 9th (44%)
12W (34%), Avg Rank - 9.9;
11W (16%), Avg Rank - 12.7; 4th or better (97%)

12. Michigan State - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 13.408 (12) T4 - 0% T16 - 82% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
17W (6%), Avg Rank - 9.1;
16W (27%), Avg Rank - 10.4;
15W (35%), Avg Rank - 12.4; 16th or better (98%)
14W (24%), Avg Rank - 16.3; 16th or better (58%)
13W (24%), Avg Rank - 20.1;

bluepenquin, is SOS a static value set before the season, or does it change during the season?

[bluepenquin]

Nov 1, 2017 17:33:35 GMT -5 Millennium said:

Oct 31, 2017 12:14:28 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Big 10 team probabilities.

This shows, if Penn State wins 19 conference matches (there is a 26% chance of that happening), their average RPI Future rank is 1.1. They would finish 1st in RPI 95% of the time.

1. Penn State - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 2.385 (1) T4 - 87% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
19W (26%), Avg Rank - 1.1: 1st (95%), 2nd (5%)
18W (41%), Avg Rank - 1.8; 1st (41%), 2nd (43%), 3rd (12%)
17W (26%), Avg Rank - 3.6; 2nd (17%), 3rd (24%), 4th (30%), 5th (20%), 4th or better (75%)
16W (7%), Avg Rank - 5.9; 4th (9%), 5th (21%), 6th (33%), 4th or better (11%)

3. Minnesota - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 3.598 (3) T4 - 67% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
18W (19%), Avg Rank - 1.3; 1st (76%), 2nd (18%)
17W (41%), Avg Rank - 2.9; 2nd (24%), 3rd (32%), 4th or better (90%)
16W (28%), Avg Rank - 4.9; 3rd (12%), 4th (22%), 5th (29%), 4th or better (38%)
15W (10%), Avg Rank - 6.6; 4th or better (3%)

7. Nebraska - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 5.485 (6) T4 - 23% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
19W (66%), Avg Rank - 5.1; 4th or better (23%)
18W (27%), Avg Rank - 6.2; 4th or better (5%)
17W (5%), Avg Rank - 7.3;

9. Wisconsin - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 9.822 (9) T4 - 0% T16 - 98% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
14W (11%), Avg Rank - 7.6; 7th (32%), 8th (46%)
13W (37%), Avg Rank - 8.6; 8th (43%), 9th (44%)
12W (34%), Avg Rank - 9.9;
11W (16%), Avg Rank - 12.7; 4th or better (97%)

12. Michigan State - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 13.408 (12) T4 - 0% T16 - 82% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
17W (6%), Avg Rank - 9.1;
16W (27%), Avg Rank - 10.4;
15W (35%), Avg Rank - 12.4; 16th or better (98%)
14W (24%), Avg Rank - 16.3; 16th or better (58%)
13W (24%), Avg Rank - 20.1;

bluepenquin , is SOS a static value set before the season, or does it change during the season?

Changes each week (or update).  Not sure if this is the correct definition, but I define it as 50% of average opponent record (projected to the end of the season) + 25% of the opponent/opponent w/l% + any projected scheduling bonus (non conference).  I wouldn't be surprised if the correct definition doesn't include the scheduling bonus, but I think it should be included so I do.

Changes in schedule (Hurricanes and conference tournaments) will impact SOS as the matches become scheduled or cancelled.

[aztecbuff]

Sorry for what I assume is my (usual) ignorance, but just wanted to make sure I'm understanding the information right.

For Colorado, the detailed projection listed is:

"
18. Colorado - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 18.895 (19) T4 - 0% T16 - 33% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
14W (10%), Avg Rank - 11.9; 16th (16%), 17th (18%), 16th or better (53%)
13W (24%), Avg Rank - 15.1; 16th or better (76%)
12W (31%), Avg Rank - 19.1; 16th or better (9%)
11W (23%), Avg Rank - 22.7;
10W (9%), Avg Rank - 26.3

"

Is there a typo in odds of them being "16th or Better" in the 14W and/ or 13W row. Wouldn't odds be higher if there are 14 wins (above shows 53%) vs. 13 wins (showing 76%)?
Or, am I not understanding how/ what the information presented means?

[Cruz'n]

Nov 1, 2017 22:10:38 GMT -5 aztecbuff said:

Sorry for what I assume is my (usual) ignorance, but just wanted to make sure I'm understanding the information right.

For Colorado, the detailed projection listed is:

"
18. Colorado - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 18.895 (19) T4 - 0% T16 - 33% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
14W (10%), Avg Rank - 11.9; 16th (16%), 17th (18%), 16th or better (53%)
13W (24%), Avg Rank - 15.1; 16th or better (76%)
12W (31%), Avg Rank - 19.1; 16th or better (9%)
11W (23%), Avg Rank - 22.7;
10W (9%), Avg Rank - 26.3

"

Is there a typo in odds of them being "16th or Better" in the 14W and/ or 13W row. Wouldn't odds be higher if there are 14 wins (above shows 53%) vs. 13 wins (showing 76%)?
Or, am I not understanding how/ what the information presented means?

I think the 76% should be 26%. Hopefully bluepenquin can confirm.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 1, 2017 22:10:38 GMT -5 aztecbuff said:

Sorry for what I assume is my (usual) ignorance, but just wanted to make sure I'm understanding the information right.

For Colorado, the detailed projection listed is:

"
18. Colorado - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 18.895 (19) T4 - 0% T16 - 33% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
14W (10%), Avg Rank - 11.9; 16th (16%), 17th (18%), 16th or better (53%)
13W (24%), Avg Rank - 15.1; 16th or better (76%)
12W (31%), Avg Rank - 19.1; 16th or better (9%)
11W (23%), Avg Rank - 22.7;
10W (9%), Avg Rank - 26.3

"

Is there a typo in odds of them being "16th or Better" in the 14W and/ or 13W row. Wouldn't odds be higher if there are 14 wins (above shows 53%) vs. 13 wins (showing 76%)?
Or, am I not understanding how/ what the information presented means?

Thanks for catching - too many manual stuff in doing this...   13W is correct - 14W is essentially 100% (11.9 average rank).  Colorado had such a terrific week last week - I had to add the 14W scenario as it moved above 5%.  In doing so, I just copied from the previous week's 13W scenario where it was (I believe) a 53% of being in the top 16.  But with the loss of BYU and other factors - the 13W scenario for Colorado has become more promising.  Very much related - I think there is a pretty good chance of 6 PAC teams getting a 6th seed - between UCLA/Colorado/USC getting 2 of them (although Utah isn't out of the woods yet).  This is bad news for BYU/Cal Poly/San Diego - and it puts Kansas/Iowa State/Creighton in real jeopardy (or possibly Michigan State).

18. Colorado - Pac 12, Avg RPI Rank - 18.895 (19) T4 - 0% T16 - 33% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%
14W (10%), Avg Rank - 11.9;
13W (24%), Avg Rank - 15.1; 16th or better (76%)
12W (31%), Avg Rank - 19.1; 16th or better (9%)
11W (23%), Avg Rank - 22.7;
10W (9%), Avg Rank - 26.3

[bluepenquin]

A couple things that have caught my eye this morning.

There is a pretty sizeable disconnect in today's RPI and the RPI Futures for Florida State. Florida State is currently sitting at #40, while RPI Futures have them at #51. This seems like a pretty large difference this late in the year. A large part of this difference is related to opponent w/l% - currently this is sitting ~ .630 for Florida State. However RPI Futures is showing this dropping to .573 by the end of the year. Florida State ends the season playing: Boston College (.245), Virginia Tech (.332), Virginia (.228), Clemson (.243), and Georgia Tech (.493). This is where looking at the current RPI can be deceiving.

Looking at another example - Hawaii is currently #50 in RPI, while RPI Futures has them at #44. They only have 3 more matches and their average opponent w/l% will not change. RPI Futures is projecting just 2.2 wins out of their final 3 matches. If they win all 3 - then they likely will finish better than this RPI Future. Winning the final one at UC Irvine will be the tough one.

Obviously Colorado has become a projected seed team. What does this do to the seed bubble - it possibly killed the chances for BYU and Cal Poly. But what about Creighton, Iowa State, and Kansas? B1G and PAC teams are running away with Top 25 wins when compared to the SEC, Big 12, Big East, WCCC - which will make those teams outside the top 2 conferences nervous. But what happens when/if we see a final RPI look like this:

11. Kansas
12. Iowa State
13. Creighton
14. Michigan State
15. Colorado
16. Utah
17. USC

Or possibly Washington or Wisconsin slipping out of the top 10 in RPI? I can see a PAC team jumping a couple spots to 'take' a seed away from Creighton/Iowa State/Kansas - but 4 or 5 spots - doesn't seem very likely.

[jake]

Oct 30, 2017 23:42:27 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

Oct 30, 2017 23:24:12 GMT -5 Fight On! said:

Aren’t there no “seeds” after 16? Do they actually try to balance like a fully-seeded draw?

while that is true - still Poly is closer to LA - and they'd be aware of Poly's RPI close to 16

but one never knows with the NCAA

Will CAL POLY be a regional host?
Don get out your check book.

16-0 sweep of conference would help,...for sure.

[pavsec5row10]

Nov 4, 2017 8:12:46 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

A couple things that have caught my eye this morning.

There is a pretty sizeable disconnect in today's RPI and the RPI Futures for Florida State. Florida State is currently sitting at #40, while RPI Futures have them at #51. This seems like a pretty large difference this late in the year. A large part of this difference is related to opponent w/l% - currently this is sitting ~ .630 for Florida State. However RPI Futures is showing this dropping to .573 by the end of the year. Florida State ends the season playing: Boston College (.245), Virginia Tech (.332), Virginia (.228), Clemson (.243), and Georgia Tech (.493). This is where looking at the current RPI can be deceiving.

Looking at another example - Hawaii is currently #50 in RPI, while RPI Futures has them at #44. They only have 3 more matches and their average opponent w/l% will not change. RPI Futures is projecting just 2.2 wins out of their final 3 matches. If they win all 3 - then they likely will finish better than this RPI Future. Winning the final one at UC Irvine will be the tough one.

Obviously Colorado has become a projected seed team. What does this do to the seed bubble - it possibly killed the chances for BYU and Cal Poly. But what about Creighton, Iowa State, and Kansas? B1G and PAC teams are running away with Top 25 wins when compared to the SEC, Big 12, Big East, WCCC - which will make those teams outside the top 2 conferences nervous. But what happens when/if we see a final RPI look like this:

11. Kansas
12. Iowa State
13. Creighton
14. Michigan State
15. Colorado
16. Utah
17. USC

Or possibly Washington or Wisconsin slipping out of the top 10 in RPI? I can see a PAC team jumping a couple spots to 'take' a seed away from Creighton/Iowa State/Kansas - but 4 or 5 spots - doesn't seem very likely.

They are also in a very volatile area of the RPI rankings.  The .0097 difference between #40 and #50 is the lowest gap between any team in the top 58 and 10 spots lower.  I suspect this is just a function of the distribution of teams in the rankings, i.e. the gap between the top teams decreases as you approach the bubble.  

[bluepenquin]

Ohio State started the week with a 23% chance of being over .500 (and being tournament eligible). Now they are exactly at 50% chance (before Pablo adjustments).

Here is the current RPI Futures for the top 120 - with actual RPI (from Figstats) in parenthesis.

1. Penn State (1)
2. Minnesota (2)
3. Florida (3)
4. Stanford (7)
5. Kentucky (4)
6. Texas (6)
7. Nebraska (5)
8. Washington (8)
9. Oregon (9)
10. Wisconsin (10)
11. Kansas (13)
12. Michigan State (15)
13. Iowa State (16)
14. Creighton (12)
15. Utah (14)
16. Colorado (11)
17. USC (17)
18. Baylor (20)
19. Wichita State (18)
20. BYU (19)
21. Cal Poly (25)
22. UCLA (24)
23. Illinois (22)
24. San Diego (21)
25. Louisville (23)
26. Western Kentucky (32)
27. Purdue (26)
28. Oregon State (29)
29. Pittsburgh (27)
30. Colorado State (28)
31. Marquette (34)
32. Michigan (35)
33. Ohio State (33)
34. Auburn (37)
35. VCU (41)
36. LSU (31)
37. NC State (36)
38. Miami-FL (30)
39. Missouri (43)
40. Notre Dame (39)
41. Northern Iowa (48)
42. Iowa (44)
43. Hawaii (49)
44. Missouri State (51)
45. High Point (52)
46. Washington State (42)
47. Maryland (45)
48. Arkansas (47)
49. College of Charleston (46)
50. North Texas (53)
51. Dayton (54)
52. Florida State (40)
53. Butler (56)
54. Texas A&M (38)
55. Austin Peay (58)
56. Alabama (50)
57. Kennesaw State (57)
58. Denver (59)
59. Princeton (60)
60. North Carolina (55)
61. Radford (70)
62. Central Arkansas (62)
63. James Madison (65)
64. Georgia (61)
65. Towson (66)
66. Tennessee (71)
67. SMU (63)
68. UC Irvine (68)
69. Miami-OH (72)
70. Navy (76)
71. Rice (73)
72. Duke (67)
73. American (81)
74. Temple (77)
75. West Virginia (79)
76. Yale (74)
77. Texas State (75)
78. Villanova (78)
79. TCU (64)
80. Lipscomb (80)
81. North Dakota (84)
82. Cleveland State (87)
83. SIUE (86)
84. Northwestern (82)
85. Ole Miss (69)
86. Sacramento State (90)
87. Cal (85)
88. Stephen F. Austin (92)
89. Florida Atlantic (83)
90. Santa Clara (97)
91. East Tennessee State (102)
92. Wyoming (88)
93. Northeastern (106)
94. Illinois State (99)
95. Loyola Marymount (89)
96. Seton Hall (94)
97. Boise State (103)
98. Arkansas State (96)
99. Texas-San Antonio (115)
100. Arizona (93)
101. Kansas State (101)
102. UCF (95)
103. Pepperdine (100)
104. Georgia Tech (105)
105. Portland State (104)
106. Texas Tech (91)
107. Coastal Carolina (98)
108. Drake (109)
109. Syracuse (114)
110. Colgate (112)
111. IUPUI (110)
112. Furman (107)
113. Cincinnati (123)
114. Hofstra (113)
115. Pacific (108)
116. New Mexico State (118)
117. Florida Gulf Coast (122)
118. Indiana (119)
119. Oakland (129)
120. St. Johns (125)

[Fight On!]

Nov 5, 2017 8:22:31 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Ohio State started the week with a 23% chance of being over .500 (and being tournament eligible). Now they are exactly at 50% chance (before Pablo adjustments).

Here is the current RPI Futures for the top 120 - with actual RPI (from Figstats) in parenthesis.

1. Penn State (1)
2. Minnesota (2)
3. Florida (3)
4. Stanford (7)
5. Kentucky (4)
6. Texas (6)
7. Nebraska (5)
8. Washington (8)
9. Oregon (9)
10. Wisconsin (10)
11. Kansas (13)
12. Michigan State (15)
13. Iowa State (16)
14. Creighton (12)
15. Utah (14)
16. Colorado (11)
17. USC (17)
18. Baylor (20)
19. Wichita State (18)
20. BYU (19)
21. Cal Poly (25)
22. UCLA (24)
23. Illinois (22)
24. San Diego (21)
25. Louisville (23)
26. Western Kentucky (32)
27. Purdue (26)
28. Oregon State (29)
29. Pittsburgh (27)
30. Colorado State (28)
31. Marquette (34)
32. Michigan (35)
33. Ohio State (33)
34. Auburn (37)
35. VCU (41)
36. LSU (31)
37. NC State (36)
38. Miami-FL (30)
39. Missouri (43)
40. Notre Dame (39)
41. Northern Iowa (48)
42. Iowa (44)
43. Hawaii (49)
44. Missouri State (51)
45. High Point (52)
46. Washington State (42)
47. Maryland (45)
48. Arkansas (47)
49. College of Charleston (46)
50. North Texas (53)
51. Dayton (54)
52. Florida State (40)
53. Butler (56)
54. Texas A&M (38)
55. Austin Peay (58)
56. Alabama (50)
57. Kennesaw State (57)
58. Denver (59)
59. Princeton (60)
60. North Carolina (55)
61. Radford (70)
62. Central Arkansas (62)
63. James Madison (65)
64. Georgia (61)
65. Towson (66)
66. Tennessee (71)
67. SMU (63)
68. UC Irvine (68)
69. Miami-OH (72)
70. Navy (76)
71. Rice (73)
72. Duke (67)
73. American (81)
74. Temple (77)
75. West Virginia (79)
76. Yale (74)
77. Texas State (75)
78. Villanova (78)
79. TCU (64)
80. Lipscomb (80)
81. North Dakota (84)
82. Cleveland State (87)
83. SIUE (86)
84. Northwestern (82)
85. Ole Miss (69)
86. Sacramento State (90)
87. Cal (85)
88. Stephen F. Austin (92)
89. Florida Atlantic (83)
90. Santa Clara (97)
91. East Tennessee State (102)
92. Wyoming (88)
93. Northeastern (106)
94. Illinois State (99)
95. Loyola Marymount (89)
96. Seton Hall (94)
97. Boise State (103)
98. Arkansas State (96)
99. Texas-San Antonio (115)
100. Arizona (93)
101. Kansas State (101)
102. UCF (95)
103. Pepperdine (100)
104. Georgia Tech (105)
105. Portland State (104)
106. Texas Tech (91)
107. Coastal Carolina (98)
108. Drake (109)
109. Syracuse (114)
110. Colgate (112)
111. IUPUI (110)
112. Furman (107)
113. Cincinnati (123)
114. Hofstra (113)
115. Pacific (108)
116. New Mexico State (118)
117. Florida Gulf Coast (122)
118. Indiana (119)
119. Oakland (129)
120. St. Johns (125)

FigStats hasn’t updated USC win over ASU yet. Not sure it other updates are missing too.
Update: when it did update, they dropped a spot. Lol

[southie]

Maybe I missed their recent movement, but I didn't realize UCLA was close to falling out of the Top 25.

[jaypak]

Speaking of the Top 25, per figstats Pitt is sitting at #26 RPI and Purdue at #27. Creighton has a win over Pitt and a loss to Purdue. What are the chances one or both of these teams finish in the Top 25, and what would be the implications for Creighton's RPI? Thanks in advance.