NCAA Beach tournament bids 2019 week 10

[trollhunter]

Week 9 – NCAA bid projections, seeding and criteria comparisons

Seed-team name-NCAA bid
1. UCLA - West bid 1
2. USC - West bid 2
3. FSU – East bid 1
4. LSU – East bid 2
5. PEP – West bid 3
6. FIU?/Stetson? – East bid 3 (see posts above - final comparison is tied)
7. TBA? - At-Large bid 1
8. TBA? - At-Large bid 2

TOP 5 SEEDS – Are locked via good SOS, good records, H2H wins, CommOpp wins. Pay no attention to the AVCA poll, there is ZERO chance that Hawaii is seeded above Pepperdine, even if Hawaii wins out. They clearly lose H2H, SOS, and COP criteria.

AT-LARGE bids - Will do this soon, may need @micahlitt updates to SoS as some are close.

[n00b]

Apr 22, 2019 12:50:23 GMT -5 pnw_mark said:

I don't know if this will factor into the NCAA's decision or not but here are the number of Pairs each team on the East Bubble used as well as the number of pairs used at each position;

FIU (18 different pairs played)       Position #1. 2 teams #2. 7 teams #3. 10 teams #4. 8 teams #5. 6 Teams
Stetson (9 different pairs)             Position #1. 1 team  #2. 1 team   #3. 1 teams   #4. 5 teams #5. 2 Teams
South Carolina (18 different Pairs) Position #1. 2 teams #2. 2 teams #3. 2 Teams  #4. 8 Teams #5. 10 Teams

Data mining done through each schools stats;

gamecocksonline.com/documents/2019/4/16/2019_Season_Statistics.pdf
fiusports.com/documents/2019/4/22/2019_FIU_BVB_Stat_Packet.pdf



Do you commend Rita for mixing it up and keeping her team competitive or do you reward Stetson for playing the same kids at the same positions ... or does it matter?

Some data for comparison. Collegebeachvb.com has a pairs-specific computer rating. Here are the pair-by-pair rankings for those teams:

FIU
10  Bianchin/Frasca
23  Klinger/Klinger
27  Denney/Hughes
34  Bernier/Zembyla
100+ ???/???

Stetson
13  Helland-Hanse/Perales
25  Dunn/Thomas
52  Costa/Noble
71  Birker/Ingram
93  Harris/Varga

South Carolina
31  Dimke/Smith
37  Bates/Williams
68  Edelman/Vastine
74  Harrison/Schneider
100+ ???/???

Stetson has very defined tiers between their pairs. No less than 625 Pablo Rating points between any of their pairs. Meanwhile, the three FIU pairs that get shuffled between #2, #3 and #4 are only separated by 515 Pablo Rating points. I think it's very reasonable to think that those middle pairs legitimately are interchangeable and it really isn't pushing the rules by mixing them up for favorable individual matchups.

[trollhunter]

Week 9 AT-LARGE resumes (updated to current SoS 4/23)

Because of the choke-fest by bubble teams, there are several still in contention for At-Large bids. Let me know if I missed anyone. Also, please check my work on records, sigwins, siglosses, etc. Very likely I made an error or three.

Stetson (.5428 sos) 28-8 done
+SCar +LMU? +AZ +FAUx4? =LBSU =FIU(1-2) –USC –LSU –TCU?

FIU (.6619 sos) 17-11 done
+Stetson(2-1) +SCarolina +FAUx2? +GCU? –LSU –USCx2 –Hawaii -Pep

Hawaii (.5451 sos) 23-7 +BW
+FIU +LBSU +Calx2? +TCU? +LMUx2? +GCU? –LSU –CalPoly -Pep -USC

CalPoly (.6040 sos) 19-10 +BW
+SCarolina +Hawaii =Cal? +GCU? +TCU? =LMU? –AZ -LSU –LBSU –USC -Pep

Cal (.5546 sos) 19-7 +PAC12
+LBSU =CalPoly -Hawaiix2 –USC -Pep

SCarolina (.6018 sos) 20-11 done
+USC =LSU -Stetson –FAU –CalPoly –TCU –CofC –GSU -FIU

LMU (.5224 sos) 22-11 done
+GCU? =Pep(2-2) =CalPoly –USC –Stetson –TCU -LBSU -Hawaiix2

LBSU (.5240 sos) 18-9 +BW
+CalPoly +LMU? =Stetson –Hawaii –Cal –USC –GCU -Pep

AZ (.4432 sos) 20-4 +PAC12
+CalPoly -Stetson –Stanford –USC

I will break these up into groups to do some criteria comparisons.
As a reminder here are the At-Large criteria:

a. Head-to-Head competition.
b. Results versus Common Opponents. (team by team comparison)
c. Strength of Schedule. (math formula for all matches, not opinion, nor AVCA)
d. Overall Record (including significant wins and losses). Must be .500 or above.

All criteria is weighted equally and there are no tie-breakers. If teams are tied, each committee member votes based on the criteria and the whole body of work.

[trollhunter]

*Group A - needs committee to emphasize Significant Wins*

SCarolina (.6018 sos) 20-11 done
+USC =LSU -Stetson –FAU –CalPoly –TCU –CofC –GSU -FIU

LMU (.5224 sos) 22-11 done
+GCU? =Pep(2-2) =CalPoly –USC –Stetson –TCU -LBSU -Hawaiix2

H2H: will lose to almost all bubble teams (a few are split)
COP: LMU loses to almost all bubble teams (a few depend on final matches)
SOS: SCar wins over most, LMU loses to most
OvRec: need committee to really value SigWins and ignore bad losses to win this category

LMU only compares well with AZ and LBSU who are longshots. Other bubbles win most criteria against them. They are OUT.
SCarolina compares well versus most of the bubbles, if they win OvRec. Will compare more with them later.

[trollhunter]

*Group B - longshots need an incredible finish cuz of SoS*

LBSU (.5240 sos) 18-9 +BW
+CalPoly +LMU? =Stetson –Hawaii –Cal –USC –GCU -Pep

AZ (.4432 sos) 20-4 +PAC12
+CalPoly -Stetson –Stanford –USC

H2H: lose to all bubbles except CalPoly (some are blank or split).
COP: close enough that both can win versus most bubbles with a great finish.
SOS: lose to all bubbles. This is huge as some criteria are blank or split.
OVREC: close enough that both can win versus most bubbles with a great finish.

CalPoly basically must win out which will improve their OVREC a lot, and fix most of their H2H and COP problems. Any losses will make those H2H and COP problems too great to overcome.

AZ needs to beat Cal and either USC/UCLA in a deep PAC12 run. This would likely help their COP and OVREC just enough.

[trollhunter]

*Group C - strong finish likely earns a bid*

This is the main bubble group with best bid chances (just one of Stetson/FIU). I will do more team by team comparisons on these later.

Hawaii (.5451 sos) 23-7 +BW
+FIU +LBSU +Calx2? +TCU? +LMUx2? +GCU? –LSU –CalPoly -Pep -USC

CalPoly (.6040 sos) 19-10 +BW
+SCarolina +Hawaii =Cal? +GCU? +TCU? =LMU? –AZ -LSU –LBSU –USC -Pep

Cal (.5546 sos) 19-7 +PAC12
+LBSU =CalPoly -Hawaiix2 –USC -Pep

Stetson (.5428 sos) 28-8 done
+SCar +LMU? +AZ +FAUx4? =LBSU =FIU(1-2) –USC –LSU –TCU?

FIU (.6619 sos) 17-11 done
+Stetson(2-1) +SCarolina +FAUx2? +GCU? –LSU –USCx2 –Hawaii -Pep

SCarolina (.6018 sos) 20-11 done
+USC =LSU -Stetson –FAU –CalPoly –TCU –CofC –GSU -FIU

[newbeach]

Apr 22, 2019 20:28:10 GMT -5 trollhunter said:

*Group C - strong finish likely earns a bid*

This is the main bubble group with best bid chances (plus one of Stetson/FIU). I will do more team by team comparisons on these later.

Cal (.5700 sos) 19-7 +PAC12
+LBSU =CalPoly -Hawaiix2 –USC -Pep

CalPoly (.6000 sos) 19-10 +BW
+SCarolina +Hawaii =Cal? +GCU? +TCU? =LMU? –AZ -LSU –LBSU –USC -Pep

Hawaii (.5500 sos) 23-7 +BW
+FIU +LBSU +Cal? +TCU? +LMUx2? +GCU? –LSU –CalPoly -Pep

Hawaii is +Cal x2 as well. You do mention this with Cal, but not with other Hawaii comparisons (above).  

For Cal, is a strong finish an upset of USC or UCLA? Will beating any of the other PAC12 really help them much? I guess Arizona would help them mainly for a CP comparison, but not much for a Hawaii comparison?

[Deleted]

trollhunter , Latest SoS :

Bold = Won Conference

EAST

FIU =  0.66194

South Carolina = 0.60179

Stetson = 0.54288

WEST

Cal Poly SLO  = 0.60405

California = 0.55461

Hawaii = 0.54508

LMU = 0.52239

LBSU = 0.52404

Edit: Removed College of Charleston, Arizona and Georgia State.

- Stetson in bold as conf. champs

- changes in SoS values for all teams

I used the schools from this topic:

volleytalk.proboards.com/post/2055267

[trollhunter]

Thanks to @micahlitt for SoS updates!

The latest SoS is now included in resumes.

[trollhunter]

East versus West At-Large comparisons:

*I likely missed some COP stuff, please check as you view each.*

CalPoly vs Stetson
H2H: none
COP: Stetson (3-1 via LMU, LBSU, AZ despite TCU) *lock*
SoS: CalPoly *lock*
OVREC: Stetson

Hawaii vs Stetson
H2H: none
COP: Hawaii (3-0 via LBSU, TCU, FIU) *lock*
SoS: close, depends on BW draw - likely a tie
OVREC: close, depends on Hawaii finish

CAL vs Stetson
H2H: none
COP: CAL (1-0) vs LBSU
SOS: Cal with a slight edge, maybe a tie depending on PAC12 draw
OVREC: Stetson

CalPoly vs FIU
H2H: none
COP: CalPoly (1-0 via Hawaii) *lock*
SOS: FIU *lock*
OVREC: CalPoly?

Hawaii vs FIU
H2H: Hawaii *lock*
COP: tie (0-0)
SOS: FIU *lock*
OVREC: Hawaii

CAL vs FIU
H2H: none
COP: tie (0-0)
SOS: FIU *lock*
OVREC: CAL

CalPoly vs SCarolina
H2H: CalPoly
COP: SCarolina (2-1 via USC + LSU less TCU)
SOS: tie, could change based on BW draw
OVREC: SCarolina?

Hawaii vs SCarolina
H2H: none
COP: tie (2-2 via FIU + TCU vs LSU + USC) Hawaii beating CP would give this criteria to Hawaii.
SOS: SCarolina *lock*
OVREC: tie?

CAL vs SCarolina
H2H: none
COP: tie (1-1) via USC and CalPoly (a Cal loss to ASU would swing this to SCar)
SOS: SCarolina *lock*
OVREC: SCarolina?

I will do West vs West and East vs East soon. But this shows what West teams need to do to have a chance, since East teams are done.

[trollhunter]

CalPoly: needs lots of wins to improve OVREC vs Stetson/SCarolina and be clearly ahead of FIU. May need to win out.

Hawaii: needs lots of wins to move ahead in OVREC Stetson/SCarolina. Must beat CalPoly once to earn COP category vs SCarolina.

CAL: needs some significant wins to move ahead in OVREC vs Stetson/SCarolina. Probably needs to beat USC or UCLA to catch SCarolina.

Despite SCarolina choking, they still compare well to the teams above in criteria, mostly because none of them played much versus other region.

[diyakuno]

Does winning your conference automatically qualify you for a spot at the NCAAs?

I'm a little confused. If so, LMU is in (right?) and that would leave the two autobids from Pac12 and Big West.

If UCLA wins PAC 12 and Hawaii wins Big West, I would think the at-large bids would be between USC/Pepperdine.

Please enlighten me.

[kaipono]

Apr 23, 2019 16:29:42 GMT -5 diyakuno said:

Does winning your conference automatically qualify you for a spot at the NCAAs?

I'm a little confused. If so, LMU is in (right?) and that would leave the two autobids from Pac12 and Big West.

If UCLA wins PAC 12 and Hawaii wins Big West, I would think the at-large bids would be between USC/Pepperdine.

Please enlighten me.

No, there are no auto-bids for winning your conference.  There are 3 bids for West teams and 3 bids for East teams, leaving two at-large spots for any teams who are not in the top 3 in their region.

[collegebeachfan]

Here's the "official" description from ncaa.com

Selection Process
The 2019 Beach Volleyball Championship provides for a field of eight teams to compete in a double elimination tournament. The NCAA Women's Beach Volleyball Committee will conduct team selections, selecting the top three teams from the East Region and the top three teams from the West Region. The remaining two teams will be selected at-large from across the country by the NCAA Women's Beach Volleyball Committee.

Selection Show | Sunday, April 28 on NCAA.com
The NCAA Division I Women's Beach Volleyball Championship bracket will be announced the Sunday before the first round of competition.

[diyakuno]

Ah that makes sense. Thanks kaipono collegebeachfan

I was a little worried. Haha. Kudos to LMU but I think they don't deserve the bid.