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Post by trollhunter on Apr 23, 2019 16:43:03 GMT -5
Does winning your conference automatically qualify you for a spot at the NCAAs? I'm a little confused. If so, LMU is in (right?) and that would leave the two autobids from Pac12 and Big West. If UCLA wins PAC 12 and Hawaii wins Big West, I would think the at-large bids would be between USC/Pepperdine. Please enlighten me. Automatic bids are normal for most sports. With Beach volleyball being new, they have not reached enough colleges participating to even split Di/D2/D3, nor have automatic bids. Hopefully in the next couple years. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 23, 2019 16:58:08 GMT -5
Week 9: East vs East At-Large
Resumes again for reference:
Stetson (.5428 sos) 28-8 done
+SCar +LMU? +AZ +FAUx4? =LBSU =FIU(1-2) –USC –LSU –TCU?
FIU (.6619 sos) 17-11 done
+Stetson(2-1) +SCarolina +FAUx2? +GCU? –LSU –USCx2 –Hawaii -Pep
SCarolina (.6018 sos) 20-11 done
+USC =LSU -Stetson –FAU –CalPoly –TCU –CofC –GSU -FIU
Criteria comparisons:
*Again, please check my COP as I may have missed something*
FIU vs Stetson:
H2H: FIU (2-1)
COP: tie (0-0)
SoS: FIU
OVREC: Stetson
FIU vs SCarolina:
H2H: FIU
COP: FIU (3-2) +Stetson +FAU +GSU -LSU -USC
SOS: FIU
OverallRec: SCarolina
Stetson vs SCarolina
H2H: Stetson
COP: Stetson? (3-2) +GSU +FAU +FIU? -LSU -USC (I think Stetson 1-2 record vs FIU is considered better than SCar 0-1)
SOS: SCarolina
OvRec: SCarolina? (The wins over USC and LSU are huge, more than offset other losses I think)
FIU compares great against East teams, bad against West teams.
SCarolina compares great versus West teams, bad versus East teams.
Stetson appears just behind too many unless they get East bid #3.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 23, 2019 17:41:53 GMT -5
Week 9: At-Large West vs West
Resumes:
Hawaii (.5451 sos) 23-7 +BW
+FIU +LBSU +Calx2? +TCU? +LMUx2? +GCU? –LSU –CalPoly -Pep -USC
CalPoly (.6040 sos) 19-10 +BW
+SCarolina +Hawaii =Cal? +GCU? +TCU? =LMU? –AZ -LSU –LBSU –USC -Pep
Cal (.5546 sos) 19-7 +PAC12
+LBSU =CalPoly -Hawaiix2 –USC -Pep
Comparisons:
*Again, please check my COP as I am doing it on the fly*
CalPoly vs Cal
H2H: tie *lock*
COP: tie (1-1) +Hawaii -LBSU *lock?*
SOS: CalPoly
OVREC: CAL? close enough it will depend on how both finish.
Hawaii vs CAL
H2H: Hawaii *lock*
COP: CAL (1-0) via +CalPoly, could change in BW
SOS: CAL? slight edge, will depend on tourney draws. Maybe tie.
OVREC: Hawaii? slight edge, will depend on how both finish.
CalPoly vs Hawaii
H2H: CalPoly, could change in BW tournament
COP: Hawaii (3-0 via +LBSU +Cal +LMU) *lock*
SoS: CalPoly *lock*
OVRec: Hawaii? could change based on BW finish
These 3 are in literal ties right now in criteria.
CalPoly and Hawaii get to decide it playing each other (and results versus LBSU matter for COP & OVREC). Who finishes better?
CalPoly can probably split with Hawaii as long as they win the rest.
Hawaii needs to beat CalPoly twice, or just once and not face them again (via LBSU win).
CAL needs a better finish than CalPoly to clearly win OVREC from them. I don't think COP can change, nor SOS change enough.
CAL needs a better finish than Hawaii to tie or win OVREC. Whichever team does well should also opponents with better records, so maybe SOS goes in their favor. Also needs Hawaii to end up with losing record for season versus CalPoly for COP purposes.
For CAL, finishing better than BW winner probably means beating USC or UCLA
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 24, 2019 11:44:50 GMT -5
Week 9 At-Large summary by team. This combines everything that bubbles need to do from various East and West comparisons.
LMU: is out. Loses SOS and H2H or COP to most bubbles.
AZ: Must beat either USC/UCLA and probably Cal to catch/pass other bubbles in OVREC and COP. Likely need to make PAC12 final due to bad SOS.
Cal: Must beat either USC/UCLA and probably AZ to catch/pass other bubbles in OVREC and COP.
CalPoly: Needs to win BW to improve OVREC and COP. Maybe can lose once to Hawaii, but would need to beat them before or after.
Hawaii: Needs to win BW to improve OVREC and COP. Could maybe lose to LBSU once but must beat CalPoly.
LBSU: Needs to win out to improve OVREC and COP. With their poor SOS, they cant tie or lose any other criteria.
FIU: needs to win East bid #3. Or hope other bubbles do poorly in PAC12 and BigWest (like winner has 1 loss and others have 2 losses).
Stetson: needs to win East bid #3. Or hope other bubbles do poorly in PAC12 and BigWest. (like winner has 1 loss and others have 2 losses).
SCarolina: slightly ahead of everyone except for loser of East #3 bid (Stetson/FIU). Depends on how much committee values USC/LSU wins and FAU/TCU losses. Needs AZ/CAL to *not* beat USC/UCLA. Wants Cal to lose to ASU. Wants Hawaii to lose to CalPoly.
Note: There are 2 At-Large bids available, so if a team finishes just short of these goals, they may still get in depending on how other teams finish. This is *not* solitaire - a lot of teams are fighting for the last 2 bids!
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Post by bddad on Apr 24, 2019 16:37:46 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see how the committee values late season performance, which would include conference championship performance. It is a really long shot, but LMU may still be alive?
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 24, 2019 16:56:09 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see how the committee values late season performance, which would include conference championship performance. It is a really long shot, but LMU may still be alive? "Late season performance" is not part of the criteria (yet) but could be in the future. It is part of criteria or tie-breaks for indoor Men and Women volleyball. Also another reason for having automatic bids (finishing strong earns automatic). However, it could still influence Overall Record somewhat now or a committee members tiebreak vote when stuff is tied. Unfortunately, LMU loses SOS criteria to everyone - loses H2H to Stetson, Hawaii, LBSU and is tied with others - also does not win COP versus anyone. Even if LMU wins the OverallRecord category thanks to their wins over Pep, they will lose or tie all other categories. They are OUT in my opinion, unless I'm overlooking something. At-Large criteria: a. Head-to-Head competition. b. Results versus Common Opponents. (team by team comparison) c. Strength of Schedule. (math formula for all matches, not opinion, nor AVCA) d. Overall Record (including significant wins and losses). Must be .500 or above. All criteria is weighted equally and there are no tie-breakers. If teams are tied, each committee member votes based on the criteria and the whole body of work. |
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Post by bddad on Apr 24, 2019 18:20:22 GMT -5
Ok...really good points - I misread the first time. The Selection committee should have some interesting selections this weekend:
FBS WEST Head Coach Andrew Fuller
Stanford University Pac-12 Conference
FBS EAST Head Coach Rita Buck-Crockett
Florida International University Conference USA
FBS EAST SWA Kelcey Roegiers
Georgia State University Sun Belt Conference
FCS WEST Head Beach Volleyball Coach Todd Rogers
California Polytechnic State University Big West Conference
DI EAST Commissioner, Commissioner Ted Gumbart
ASUN Conference ASUN Conference
DI WEST SWA Joan M. McDermott
University of San Francisco West Coast Conference
What are the odds that both of the two at large teams come from the West?
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 25, 2019 10:27:28 GMT -5
Ok...really good points - I misread the first time. The Selection committee should have some interesting selections this weekend: FBS WEST Head Coach Andrew Fuller Stanford University Pac-12 Conference FBS EAST Head Coach Rita Buck-Crockett Florida International University Conference USA FBS EAST SWA Kelcey Roegiers Georgia State University Sun Belt Conference FCS WEST Head Beach Volleyball Coach Todd Rogers California Polytechnic State University Big West Conference DI EAST Commissioner, Commissioner Ted Gumbart ASUN Conference ASUN Conference DI WEST SWA Joan M. McDermott University of San Francisco West Coast Conference What are the odds that both of the two at large teams come from the West? Interesting that there are two "CCSA" reps on the committee - may bode well for FIU. Both At-Large would probably come from West if this scenario plays out: *Cal or AZ beat USC/UCLA and finish strong* plus the BW winner. I don't think the BW runner-up has much of a chance, as they will get 2 losses this weekend. It is a zero sum game - when somebody wins, someone else loses. But it is possible 2 BW could go if they have the right combination of wins to still earn COP and/or tie H2H criteria versus other bubble teams. |
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Post by pnw_mark on Apr 25, 2019 10:32:21 GMT -5
Ok...really good points - I misread the first time. The Selection committee should have some interesting selections this weekend: FBS WEST Head Coach Andrew Fuller Stanford University Pac-12 Conference FBS EAST Head Coach Rita Buck-Crockett Florida International University Conference USA FBS EAST SWA Kelcey Roegiers Georgia State University Sun Belt Conference FCS WEST Head Beach Volleyball Coach Todd Rogers California Polytechnic State University Big West Conference DI EAST Commissioner, Commissioner Ted Gumbart ASUN Conference ASUN Conference DI WEST SWA Joan M. McDermott University of San Francisco West Coast Conference What are the odds that both of the two at large teams come from the West? Interesting that there are two "CCSA" reps on the committee - may bode well for FIU. Both At-Large would probably come from West if this scenario plays out: *Cal or AZ beat USC/UCLA and finish strong* I don't think the BW runner-up has much of a chance, as they will get 2 losses this weekend. But it is possible if they have the right combination of wins to still earn COP and/or tie H2H criteria versus other bubble teams. " Interesting that there are two "CCSA" reps on the committee - may bode well for FIU. " ... or not. I've heard more than a few people say they don't like they way Rita shifts her teams around... but maybe if it's her vs. Cal Poly then she gets the benefit of the doubt |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 25, 2019 10:41:00 GMT -5
Interesting that there are two "CCSA" reps on the committee - may bode well for FIU. Both At-Large would probably come from West if this scenario plays out: *Cal or AZ beat USC/UCLA and finish strong* I don't think the BW runner-up has much of a chance, as they will get 2 losses this weekend. But it is possible if they have the right combination of wins to still earn COP and/or tie H2H criteria versus other bubble teams. " Interesting that there are two "CCSA" reps on the committee - may bode well for FIU. " ... or not. I've heard more than a few people say they don't like they way Rita shifts her teams around... but maybe if it's her vs. Cal Poly then she gets the benefit of the doubt Yes, I heard that was a reason that FIU was left out 2 years ago. The shuffling is not as severe now, but still questionable. But with Rita and a CCSA admin on the committee now, I think that a NCAA tournament bid sanction is unlikely. |
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Post by socal3 on Apr 25, 2019 10:42:40 GMT -5
Interesting that there are two "CCSA" reps on the committee - may bode well for FIU. Both At-Large would probably come from West if this scenario plays out: *Cal or AZ beat USC/UCLA and finish strong* I don't think the BW runner-up has much of a chance, as they will get 2 losses this weekend. But it is possible if they have the right combination of wins to still earn COP and/or tie H2H criteria versus other bubble teams. " Interesting that there are two "CCSA" reps on the committee - may bode well for FIU. " ... or not. I've heard more than a few people say they don't like they way Rita shifts her teams around... but maybe if it's her vs. Cal Poly then she gets the benefit of the doubt Cal seems to be on a high with a couple of top 10 upsets and AZ has a team that is 20-0 with wins against FSU, Stetson and Cal Poly so although unlikely either beats USC or UCLA an upset by either would be exciting! |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 25, 2019 11:07:51 GMT -5
Week 10 – NCAA bids and seeding - WHO FINISHES STRONG?
Seed. team name: NCAA bid
1. UCLA: West bid 1
2. USC: West bid 2
3. FSU: East bid 1
4. LSU: East bid 2
5. PEP: West bid 3
6. FIU? (maybe Stetson?): East bid 3 (criteria is tied)
7. BigWest winner: At-Large #1
8. SCarolina or Cal (maybe AZ / BigWest runner up): At-Large #2
TOP 5 SEEDS are locked via good SOS, good records, H2H wins, CommOpp wins.
SEEDS 6-8 are interchangeable, could end up reversed depending on who actually earns them. More after weekend.
I project FIU by a hair over Stetson, barring a NCAA sanction on FIU for illegal lineups. Their criteria is tied, but FIU wins H2H, wins SOS, and has no bad losses. I think COP is tied, anyone wanna double-check? While Stetson probably wins RegionRec and OverallRec, it is versus weaker competition and they have a bad loss to TCU.
BigWest winner *should* earn a bid, but there are chances for A beat B who beat C who beat A, like they did earlier in the season. If LBSU wins BW with 1 loss with Hawaii and CalPoly getting 2 losses, it could be a MESS. I don't think BW runner-up has much of a bid chance as they will get 2 losses this weekend. This is a zero sum game, somebody has to lose for each win.
SCarolina *still* compares well versus almost all bubbles, because of mass choking. I think they are ahead/tied vs everyone except loser of Stetson/FIU comparison (whose criteria do not compare well versus West region teams). It is doubtful that any single team has better criteria than every other bubble for the final spot, so SCarolina has the best chance with strong SOS, decent record plus wins over USC + LSU.
Cal and Arizona control their destiny, if one of them beats USC/UCLA they could pass SCarolina in criteria.
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Post by txbvbfan on Apr 25, 2019 13:21:10 GMT -5
Week 10 – NCAA bids and seeding - WHO FINISHES STRONG? Seed. team name: NCAA bid1. UCLA: West bid 1 2. USC: West bid 2 3. FSU: East bid 1 4. LSU: East bid 2 5. PEP: West bid 3 6. FIU? (maybe Stetson?): East bid 3 (criteria is tied) 7. BigWest winner: At-Large #1 8. SCarolina or Cal (maybe AZ / BigWest runner up): At-Large #2 TOP 5 SEEDS are locked via good SOS, good records, H2H wins, CommOpp wins. SEEDS 6-8 are interchangeable, could end up reversed depending on who actually earns them. More after weekend. I project FIU by a hair over Stetson, barring a NCAA sanction on FIU for illegal lineups. Their criteria is tied, but FIU wins H2H, wins SOS, and has no bad losses. I think COP is tied, anyone wanna double-check? While Stetson probably wins RegionRec and OverallRec, it is versus weaker competition and they have a bad loss to TCU. BigWest winner *should* earn a bid, but there are chances for A beat B who beat C who beat A, like they did earlier in the season. If LBSU wins BW with 1 loss with Hawaii and CalPoly getting 2 losses, it could be a MESS. I don't think BW runner-up has much of a bid chance as they will get 2 losses this weekend. This is a zero sum game, somebody has to lose for each win. SCarolina *still* compares well versus almost all bubbles, because of mass choking. I think they are ahead/tied vs everyone except loser of Stetson/FIU comparison (whose criteria do not compare well versus West region teams). It is doubtful that any single team has better criteria than every other bubble for the final spot, so SCarolina has the best chance with strong SOS, decent record plus wins over USC + LSU. Cal and Arizona control their destiny, if one of them beats USC/UCLA they could pass SCarolina in criteria. I don’t understand the South Carolina prediction. They have lost to FIU, Stetson, and Cal Poly and have more bad losses than any of those three including GSU, TCU, FAU, and College of Charleston. Two good wins can’t overcome all that inconsistent performance, can it? It looks like South Carolina has choked the most! |
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Apr 25, 2019 13:31:21 GMT -5
South Carolina getting in would be a travesty.
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Post by sandyfan on Apr 25, 2019 13:42:53 GMT -5
Carolina has PROVEN they are capable of beating teams already locked as in. Still looking for another team to do the same. 2 top4 wins aren't on any other resumes and its not like other teams just haven't played enough top teams.
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