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Post by trollhunter on Apr 25, 2019 13:54:25 GMT -5
Week 10 – NCAA bids and seeding - WHO FINISHES STRONG? Seed. team name: NCAA bid1. UCLA: West bid 1 2. USC: West bid 2 3. FSU: East bid 1 4. LSU: East bid 2 5. PEP: West bid 3 6. FIU? (maybe Stetson?): East bid 3 (criteria is tied) 7. BigWest winner: At-Large #1 8. SCarolina or Cal (maybe AZ / BigWest runner up): At-Large #2 TOP 5 SEEDS are locked via good SOS, good records, H2H wins, CommOpp wins. SEEDS 6-8 are interchangeable, could end up reversed depending on who actually earns them. More after weekend. I project FIU by a hair over Stetson, barring a NCAA sanction on FIU for illegal lineups. Their criteria is tied, but FIU wins H2H, wins SOS, and has no bad losses. I think COP is tied, anyone wanna double-check? While Stetson probably wins RegionRec and OverallRec, it is versus weaker competition and they have a bad loss to TCU. BigWest winner *should* earn a bid, but there are chances for A beat B who beat C who beat A, like they did earlier in the season. If LBSU wins BW with 1 loss with Hawaii and CalPoly getting 2 losses, it could be a MESS. I don't think BW runner-up has much of a bid chance as they will get 2 losses this weekend. This is a zero sum game, somebody has to lose for each win. SCarolina *still* compares well versus almost all bubbles, because of mass choking. I think they are ahead/tied vs everyone except loser of Stetson/FIU comparison (whose criteria do not compare well versus West region teams). It is doubtful that any single team has better criteria than every other bubble for the final spot, so SCarolina has the best chance with strong SOS, decent record plus wins over USC + LSU. Cal and Arizona control their destiny, if one of them beats USC/UCLA they could pass SCarolina in criteria. I don’t understand the South Carolina prediction. They have lost to FIU, Stetson, and Cal Poly and have more bad losses than any of those three including GSU, TCU, FAU, and College of Charleston. Two good wins can’t overcome all that inconsistent performance, can it? It looks like South Carolina has choked the most! Good question! It does depend on how committee values significant wins and losses. I don't think that they will count CofC and GSU as "bad losses", as those teams ended up about where some West bubble teams will (that lose twice this weekend). None of the other bubbles have wins anywhere near USC and LSU (except LMU who has other problems). My guess is that USC and LSU wins, minus FAU & TCU is better (or at least tied) than what other bubbles have now in OVREC. There are several teams with 2-3 wins over bubble teams, but nobody has wins versus teams already in the field (maybe vs FIU?). Do you think Cal beating LBSU and splitting with CP is better than LSU and USC minus a couple bad losses? Or Calpoly beating Hawaii + SCarolina is better than USC +LSU -a couple bad losses? Hawaii may have a better argument with a semi-good win over FIU and some bubbles, but they lost to USC and LSU. If you look at my criteria comparisons, SCarolina will win SOS versus almost everyone. COP is mostly split since SCarolina and West bubbles didn't play in other region much (i.e. SCarolina losses don't hurt much in this category). SCarolina loses H2H versus a couple teams, but one of those is already in for East #3 and other one loses most At-Large compares, and will not be selected just cuz they win a single compare. Likely only CalPoly matters, and if CalPoly doesn't win BW (and earn a bid then comparison is moot) they will have 2 more losses and lose OVREC. So, it comes down to OVREC. CalPoly vs SCarolinaH2H: CalPoly COP: SCarolina (2-1 via USC + LSU less TCU) SOS: tie, could change based on BW draw (CP got bad draw) OVREC: SCarolina? Hawaii vs SCarolinaH2H: none COP: tie (2-2 via FIU + TCU vs LSU + USC) Hawaii beating CP would give this criteria to Hawaii. SOS: SCarolina *lock* OVREC: tie? CAL vs SCarolinaH2H: none COP: SCarolina (1-1) via +USC +ASU -CalPoly SOS: SCarolina *lock* OVREC: SCarolina? Hawaii (.5451 sos) 23-7 +BW +FIU +LBSU +Calx2? +TCU? +LMUx2? +GCU? –LSU –CalPoly -Pep -USC CalPoly (.6040 sos) 19-10 +BW +SCarolina +Hawaii =Cal? +GCU? +TCU? =LMU? –AZ -LSU –LBSU –USC -Pep Cal (.5546 sos) 19-7 +PAC12 +LBSU =CalPoly -Hawaiix2 –USC -Pep -ASU SCarolina (.6018 sos) 20-11 done +USC =LSU -Stetson –FAU –CalPoly –TCU –CofC –GSU -FIU |
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Apr 25, 2019 13:58:58 GMT -5
Carolina has PROVEN they are capable of beating teams already locked as in. Still looking for another team to do the same. 2 top4 wins aren't on any other resumes and its not like other teams just haven't played enough top teams. They also proved they can lose to bad teams. As txbvbfan mentioned above, two 3-2 wins over USC and LSU do not compensate for bad losses and stumbling at the end of the season. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 25, 2019 14:06:24 GMT -5
Carolina has PROVEN they are capable of beating teams already locked as in. Still looking for another team to do the same. 2 top4 wins aren't on any other resumes and its not like other teams just haven't played enough top teams. They also proved they can lose to bad teams. As txbvbfan mentioned above, two 3-2 wins over USC and LSU do not compensate for bad losses and stumbling at the end of the season. Margin of victory does not matter. Nor late season performance. If beating USC and LSU do not compensate for 2 bad losses, what exactly are they good for? There will likely be several bubbles with "no bad losses" and 2-3 bubble wins vying for the last spot. And they will have mixed criteria where A beats B who beats C who beat A. How to pick? My guess is that the big wins and SOS will differentiate SCarolina for final spot. But hey I could be wrong. It's just an opinion. Maybe CAL or AZ beat USC or UCLA and make it a moot point. |
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Apr 25, 2019 14:14:18 GMT -5
They also proved they can lose to bad teams. As txbvbfan mentioned above, two 3-2 wins over USC and LSU do not compensate for bad losses and stumbling at the end of the season. Margin of victory does not matter. Nor late season performance. If beating USC and LSU do not compensate for 2 bad losses, what exactly are they good for? There will likely be several bubbles with "no bad losses" and 2-3 bubble wins vying for the last spot. And they will have mixed criteria where A beats B who beats C who beat A. How to pick? My guess is that the big wins will differentiate SCarolina for final spot. But hey I could be wrong. It's just an opinion. Maybe CAL or AZ beat USC or UCLA and make it a moot point. Those wins are offset by losses to TCU, College of Charleston and Georgia State. South Carolina does have a victory over LSU, they also have 2 losses to LSU. I stand by my comment that a South Carolina At Large selection to the NCAA's would be a travesty. That program has yet to win a single flight in the NCAA's. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 25, 2019 14:18:53 GMT -5
Margin of victory does not matter. Nor late season performance. If beating USC and LSU do not compensate for 2 bad losses, what exactly are they good for? There will likely be several bubbles with "no bad losses" and 2-3 bubble wins vying for the last spot. And they will have mixed criteria where A beats B who beats C who beat A. How to pick? My guess is that the big wins will differentiate SCarolina for final spot. But hey I could be wrong. It's just an opinion. Maybe CAL or AZ beat USC or UCLA and make it a moot point. Those wins are offset by losses to TCU, College of Charleston and Georgia State. South Carolina does have a victory over LSU, they also have 2 losses to LSU. I stand by my comment that a South Carolina At Large selection to the NCAA's would be a travesty. That program has yet to win a single flight in the NCAA's. And have not done enough this year to warrant a bid. If you are going to count CofC and GSU as bad losses, you need to add several bad losses to West region resumes also. What is "bad" about them, besides that you don't know much about them? |
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Post by sandyfan on Apr 25, 2019 14:25:32 GMT -5
That program has yet to win a single flight in the NCAA's. Are we now disregarding Carolina's 3-2 loss to LSU at last year's finals? |
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Apr 25, 2019 14:27:37 GMT -5
Those wins are offset by losses to TCU, College of Charleston and Georgia State. South Carolina does have a victory over LSU, they also have 2 losses to LSU. I stand by my comment that a South Carolina At Large selection to the NCAA's would be a travesty. That program has yet to win a single flight in the NCAA's. And have not done enough this year to warrant a bid. If you are going to count CofC and GSU as bad losses, you need to add several bad losses to West region resumes also. What is "bad" about them, besides that you don't know much about them? An NCAA bubble team should be able to beat teams like College of Charleston and Georgia State. The AVCA Beach poll has South Carolina right where it should be. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 25, 2019 14:28:46 GMT -5
If you are going to count CofC and GSU as bad losses, you need to add several bad losses to West region resumes also. What is "bad" about them, besides that you don't know much about them? An NCAA bubble team should be able to beat teams like College of Charleston and Georgia State. The AVCA Beach poll has South Carolina right where it should be. BWAHAHA. AVCA poll. Good one. So Stanford is not a bad loss cuz they are ranked (and losing record). Hilarious. |
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Apr 25, 2019 14:30:04 GMT -5
Are we now disregarding Carolina's 3-2 loss to LSU at last year's finals? I forgot about the losers bracket. I usually don't pay attention to losers. That said, it was 3-1 LSU, not 3-2. |
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Apr 25, 2019 14:31:25 GMT -5
An NCAA bubble team should be able to beat teams like College of Charleston and Georgia State. The AVCA Beach poll has South Carolina right where it should be. BWAHAHA. AVCA poll. Good one. So Stanford is not a bad loss cuz they are ranked (and losing record). Hilarious. What about Stanford? They're not a tournament team either. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 25, 2019 14:43:33 GMT -5
BWAHAHA. AVCA poll. Good one. So Stanford is not a bad loss cuz they are ranked (and losing record). Hilarious. What about Stanford? They're not a tournament team either. The NCAA committee does not use AVCA poll for anything. That you use that as an argument shows you don't know how it works. Hey, if your opinion is that SCarolina does not deserve it fine. But classifying teams as "bad" because a poll has them a few notches below is silly. NCAA will look at teams records to define them as bad losses, not AVCA or BiK's eye-test. Neither GSU or CofC will be considered "bad losses" by NCAA. |
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Apr 25, 2019 14:54:33 GMT -5
What about Stanford? They're not a tournament team either. The NCAA committee does not use AVCA poll for anything. That you use that as an argument shows you don't know how it works. Hey, if your opinion is that SCarolina does not deserve it fine. But classifying teams as "bad" because a poll has them a few notches below is silly. NCAA will look at teams records to define them as bad losses, not AVCA or BiK's eye-test. Neither GSU or CofC will be considered "bad losses" by NCAA. I know the NCAA doesn't use the AVCA poll (and I am glad that they do not.) But I believe the AVCA has them ranked accordingly. Nothing you said above is inaccurate (aside from me not knowing how the selection process works) but again, I stand by my comments regarding South Carolina being selected as an at-large. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 25, 2019 15:13:01 GMT -5
The NCAA committee does not use AVCA poll for anything. That you use that as an argument shows you don't know how it works. Hey, if your opinion is that SCarolina does not deserve it fine. But classifying teams as "bad" because a poll has them a few notches below is silly. NCAA will look at teams records to define them as bad losses, not AVCA or BiK's eye-test. Neither GSU or CofC will be considered "bad losses" by NCAA. I know the NCAA doesn't use the AVCA poll (and I am glad that they do not.) But I believe the AVCA has them ranked accordingly. Nothing you said above is inaccurate (aside from me not knowing how the selection process works) but again, I stand by my comments regarding South Carolina being selected as an at-large. I kind of agree that it is not optimal for SCarolina to get in. Hoping that Cal/AZ or somebody else finishes strong to earn it. I'm really not a SCarolina fan. Unfortunately most of the bubbles have choked in recent weeks. So nobody really stands out. It would also be a travesty for someone to get in just because they have "no bad losses" and just a couple marginal wins over teams that don't make the tournament. Hence my current title of the thread. |
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Post by txbvbfan on Apr 25, 2019 15:38:30 GMT -5
I know the NCAA doesn't use the AVCA poll (and I am glad that they do not.) But I believe the AVCA has them ranked accordingly. Nothing you said above is inaccurate (aside from me not knowing how the selection process works) but again, I stand by my comments regarding South Carolina being selected as an at-large. I kind of agree that it is not optimal for SCarolina to get in. Hoping that Cal/AZ or somebody else finishes strong to earn it. I'm really not a SCarolina fan. Unfortunately most of the bubbles have choked in recent weeks. So nobody really stands out. It would also be a travesty for someone to get in just because they have "no bad losses" and just a couple marginal wins over teams that don't make the tournament. Hence my current title of the thread. Interesting, this last paragraph reminds me of FIU! They have not beaten anyone above them all season and have only wins over bubble teams and no bad losses. The uncertainty makes it interesting and guarantees some fans are going to be dishing out some high last minute plane fares Sunday night since any tickets purchased before then to watch East #3 and 2 at large are anybody’s guess. |
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Apr 25, 2019 16:46:29 GMT -5
I know the NCAA doesn't use the AVCA poll (and I am glad that they do not.) But I believe the AVCA has them ranked accordingly. Nothing you said above is inaccurate (aside from me not knowing how the selection process works) but again, I stand by my comments regarding South Carolina being selected as an at-large. I kind of agree that it is not optimal for SCarolina to get in. Hoping that Cal/AZ or somebody else finishes strong to earn it. I'm really not a SCarolina fan. Unfortunately most of the bubbles have choked in recent weeks. So nobody really stands out. It would also be a travesty for someone to get in just because they have "no bad losses" and just a couple marginal wins over teams that don't make the tournament. Hence my current title of the thread. I appreciate the work you put in, trollhunter. And I appreciate your perspective. And you're not wrong in your analysis. But I hope South Carolina doesn't get in. That's like waiting for Batman to make an appearance and Robin shows up... how deflating. |
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