|
|
Post by medusa on Apr 28, 2019 13:55:57 GMT -5
Cal Poly Is better than UH, even with out their best vb Tory VW. I am a UH fan, but I have to call em when I see em. I hope CP goes a long way into the tournamnet
|
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 28, 2019 14:02:25 GMT -5
1. USC 2. UCLA 3. FSU 4. LSU 5. Hawaii 6. Cal Poly 7. Pepperdine 8. FIU Sorry Stetson ASUN got you again and Poly won their way in, FIU has h2h over Stetson and SoS but lost to every other team in the tournament except Cal Poly who they didn't play. This could be the final list, but ZERO chance that Hawaii seeded is over Pepperdine. Small chance they get put ahead of Poly. Pepperdine wins EVERY criteria versus Hawaii. H2H, COP, SOS, and OVREC. Don't mind Travis' predictions. |
|
|
|
Post by medusa on Apr 28, 2019 14:05:07 GMT -5
If UH gets into the tournament, they better bless their souls, cause theirs other teams slightly better than they are.
|
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 28, 2019 14:14:30 GMT -5
SCarolina criteria comparisons: 4-1 versus bubbles (vs Stetson may be tied)
CalPoly vs SCarolina
H2H: CalPoly
COP: SCarolina (2-1 via +USC +LSU -TCU)
SOS: SCarolina
OVREC: tie/SCar? (+USC +LSU -2 avg teams VERSUS +SCar and splits with bubbles?)
Hawaii vs SCarolina
H2H: none
COP: tie (2-2 via +FIU +TCU vs -LSU -USC)
SOS: SCarolina *lock*
OVREC: tie/SCar? (mix versus bubbles VERSUS +USC +LSU -2 avg teams)
CAL vs SCarolina
H2H: none
COP: Scarolina (2-1) via +USC +ASU -CalPoly
SOS: SCarolina *lock*
OVREC: SCarolina?
Stetson vs SCarolina
H2H: Stetson
COP: Stetson? (3-2) +GSU +FAU +FIU? -LSU -USC (I think Stetson 1-2 record vs FIU is considered better than SCar 0-1)
SOS: SCarolina
OvRec: tie/SCarolina? (+FIU and splits with bubbles VERSUS +USC +LSU and -2 avg teams)
LMU vs SCarolina
H2H: none
COP: SCarolina (1-0) via +USC
SOS: SCarolina
OVREC: tie?
|
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 28, 2019 14:37:15 GMT -5
Stetson criteria comparisons: 1-2-2 versus bubbles (all compares are very close)
CalPoly vs Stetson
H2H: none
COP: Stetson (3-1 via LMU, LBSU, AZ despite TCU) *lock*
SoS: CalPoly *lock*
OVREC: tie/Stetson? win over FIU could be key
Stetson vs SCarolina
H2H: Stetson
COP: Stetson? (3-2) +GSU +FAU +FIU? -LSU -USC (I think Stetson 1-2 record vs FIU is considered better than SCar 0-1)
SOS: SCarolina
OvRec: tie/SCarolina? (+FIU and splits with bubbles VERSUS +USC +LSU and -2 avg teams)
Hawaii vs Stetson
H2H: none
COP: Hawaii (3-0 via LBSU, TCU, FIU) *lock*
SoS: tie/Hawaii? (this is so close it may be called a tie)
OVREC: ?/Stetson (both mix of wins versus bubbles, Stetson win over SCarolina could be key)
CAL vs Stetson
H2H: none
COP: Cal (1-0) vs LBSU
SOS: Cal/tie (possibly called a tie since so close)
OVREC: Stetson
Stetson vs LMU
H2H: Stetson
COP: LMU (1-0) via LBSU
SOS: Stetson
OVREC: LMU/tie? (splits with bubbles VERSUS +PEPx2 and losses to bubbles?)
|
|
|
|
Post by newbeach on Apr 28, 2019 14:56:31 GMT -5
My guess: 1USC 2 UCLA 3 FSU 4 LSU 5 Pepperdine 6 Cal Poly 7 FIU 8 Stetson This sets up all West vs. East in first round. Stetson in because they earned/deserved it over the other bubble teams, because they have a good overall record with a weak schedule, they have an ASUN rep. on the committee, or just to have four east and four west teams in the tournament? When did any of the bubble teams have to "take it" from Stetson? Stetson never had "it". |
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 28, 2019 14:58:22 GMT -5
Hawaii criteria comparisons: 2-2-1 versus bubbles
CalPoly vs Hawaii
H2H: CalPoly
COP: Hawaii (3-0 via +LBSU +Cal +LMU)
SoS: CalPoly
OVRec: tie/Hawaii? (Both with a mix of wins/losses versus bubbles, Hawaii win over FIU may matter)
Hawaii vs SCarolina
H2H: none
COP: tie (2-2 via +FIU +TCU vs -LSU -USC)
SOS: SCarolina *lock*
OVREC: tie/SCar? (mix versus bubbles VERSUS +USC +LSU -2 avg teams)
Hawaii vs Stetson
H2H: none
COP: Hawaii (3-0 via LBSU, TCU, FIU) *lock*
SoS: tie/Hawaii? (this is so close it may be called a tie)
OVREC: ?/Stetson (both mix of wins versus bubbles, Stetson win over SCarolina could be key)
Hawaii vs Cal
H2H: Hawaii *lock*
COP: CAL (1-0) via +CalPoly
SOS: CAL/tie? so close it may be called a tie.
OVREC: tie/Hawaii? win over SCarolina could matter
Hawaii vs LMU
H2H: Hawaii
COP: tied 1-1 (+TCU –PEP)
SOS: Hawaii
OVREC: LMU
|
|
|
|
Post by newbeach on Apr 28, 2019 15:03:04 GMT -5
What's the point of having two at-large bids coming from "either region", if the committee feels there is an need to award a bid to a team because of their region? There are already regional bids. The At-large bids shouldn't be awarded just to even out the regional participants. You may as well just say "East At-Large bid" and "West At-Large Bid".
|
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 28, 2019 15:07:42 GMT -5
What's the point of having two at-large bids coming from "either region", if the committee feels there is an need to award a bid to a team because of their region? There are already regional bids. The At-large bids shouldn't be awarded just to even out the regional participants. You may as well just say "East At-Large bid" and "West At-Large Bid". Both At-Larges can come from a single region and have so in the past. It just appears that it will be split this year to me. |
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 28, 2019 15:25:30 GMT -5
Based on the criteria comparisons above, I will stick with the predictions I've had since week 5:
At-Large:
SCarolina
CalPoly
Many comparisons are close, and it will depend on how much the committee values wins over USC/LSU for some OVREC evaluations.
East #3:
FIU by a hair. Criteria are tied but FIU has better SOS and H2H. Also no bad losses, while Stetson lost to TCU.
If Stetson wins East bid #3, FIU will have a lot of close compares with other bubbles (much like Stetson). They will win SOS versus all and a mix in other criteria. However, the FIU wins over Stetson and SCarolina could put them in At-Large.
Last teams out:
Stetson/Hawaii
|
|
|
|
Post by rainmaker on Apr 28, 2019 15:26:24 GMT -5
Ya last year was split, year before both West. It is just that, an at large bid..
|
|
|
|
Post by newbeach on Apr 28, 2019 15:31:04 GMT -5
What's the point of having two at-large bids coming from "either region", if the committee feels there is an need to award a bid to a team because of their region? There are already regional bids. The At-large bids shouldn't be awarded just to even out the regional participants. You may as well just say "East At-Large bid" and "West At-Large Bid". Both At-Larges can come from a single region and have so in the past. It just appears that it will be split this year to me. I realize that they can and have been from a single region in the past. Every year is different. I just don't think a committee should feel compelled to award a bid to even out the regions at any point in time. |
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 28, 2019 15:33:26 GMT -5
Both At-Larges can come from a single region and have so in the past. It just appears that it will be split this year to me. I realize that they can and have been from a single region in the past. Every year is different. I just don't think a committee should feel compelled to award a bid to even out the regions at any point in time. Ah, I think that you are misinterpreting their use of "either region" clause. Maybe they should have written "any region". I don't think the committee feels compelled to even out the regions. |
|
|
|
Post by newbeach on Apr 28, 2019 15:39:17 GMT -5
I realize that they can and have been from a single region in the past. Every year is different. I just don't think a committee should feel compelled to award a bid to even out the regions at any point in time. Ah, I think that you are misinterpreting their use of "either region" clause. I don't think the committee feels compelled to even out the regions. Well, that is debatable. We don't know what the individual committee members are thinking at any given time or what is said behind closed doors (and committees vary from year to year). There is obviously some subjectivity in the decision process that we as the public do not know. Otherwise, as noblesol said, why not just use algorithms (and we would never be surprised by who is in or out)? My point, is I hope that where a team is from should not play into their decision for the at-large bids. |
|
|
|
Post by burbank55 on Apr 28, 2019 15:47:40 GMT -5
Hey, only two people have posted their final lists with no either ors. Put em up people!
My guess:
1. USC - West bid 1
2. UCLA - West bid 2
3. FSU – East bid 1
4. LSU – East bid 2
5. PEP – West bid 3
6. FIU - East bid 3
7. CalPoly
8. Hawai’i
Admission that I haven’t followed most of the teams so I’ll put my faith in Trollhunter’s research.
|
|
