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Post by kaipono on Apr 27, 2019 18:42:21 GMT -5
What I think that the seeding for the NCAA Tournament will probably be: 1. USC 2. UCLA 3. FSU 4. LSU 5. Pepperdine 6. Cal Poly 7. FIU/Stetson 8. FIU/Stetson/SCarolina/Hawaii No chance Cal Poly at 6 seed. Finished strong, but not a 6 seed. I mean they do beat FIU and Stetson (or tied) when you make comparisons between these teams. I'm pretty sure that the top five seeds are set (unless the committee is going to really look at Pepperdine's losses against LMU), and mainly the bottom three seeds need to be compared. In FIU vs. Cal Poly, Cal Poly has the edge in overall record and common opponents (beating Hawaii three times), and FIU has the edge in SOS. In Stetson vs. Cal Poly, they are tied in common opponents, Cal Poly has an edge in SOS, and Stetson has a slight edge in SOS. With how everyone lower than the fifth seed has been playing, Cal Poly being the 6th seed would not surprise me. |
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Post by badbunny on Apr 27, 2019 18:46:37 GMT -5
No chance Cal Poly at 6 seed. Finished strong, but not a 6 seed. I mean they do beat FIU and Stetson (or tied) when you make comparisons between these teams. I'm pretty sure that the top five seeds are set (unless the committee is going to really look at Pepperdine's losses against LMU), and mainly the bottom three seeds need to be compared. In FIU vs. Cal Poly, Cal Poly has the edge in overall record and common opponents (beating Hawaii three times), and FIU has the edge in SOS. In Stetson vs. Cal Poly, they are tied in common opponents, Cal Poly has an edge in SOS, and Stetson has a slight edge in SOS. With how everyone lower than the fifth seed has been playing, Cal Poly being the 6th seed would not surprise me. Fair. I can buy that logic. |
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Post by medusa on Apr 27, 2019 22:11:23 GMT -5
UH had a nice season, not good, but nice. Next year should be better, I hope. I don't think they will make the ncaa's.
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Post by newbeach on Apr 28, 2019 0:23:41 GMT -5
If I was on the committee, without going into the semantics of the criteria, I would give the East #3 bid to FIU. The three remaining bubble teams, in my opinion, are Hawaii, Stetson, and S. Carolina. Stetson beat S. Carolina and Hawaii has not played either.
I would still make a case for Hawaii in the tournament. They only lost to top 5 teams with the exception of Cal Poly who had their number (much like USC has UCLA's right now) and no bad losses. Overall, their body of work was good.
South Carolina was inconsistent. Yes, they had wins over USC and LSU, but they also had bad losses ( I still think USC might not have had that loss on their resume had they not scheduled poorly. They had just finished the East vs West meet and then went to S. Carolina and played them the morning after?). They also lost to Cal Poly. They lost to TCU who Hawaii beat. SC beat ASU once and Hawaii beat them twice.
Stetson's resume is not that impressive despite their overall resume. They split with Long Beach, who Hawaii beat twice, and lost to FIU twice, who Hawaii beat once. They beat LMU once, Hawaii beat them twice. They lost to TCU and FIU who Hawaii beat.
Just my opinion, of course and I am not on the committee. A rep. from ASUN and FIU and Cal Poly are however.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2019 0:30:08 GMT -5
If I were in a committee to put a team/individual I know I can beat and have done it 3x during the regular season, and have another chance to stuff them again in the loser's bracket of the tourney I'd vote them in....
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Post by kaipono on Apr 28, 2019 0:50:23 GMT -5
If I were in a committee to put a team/individual I know I can beat and have done it 3x during the regular season, and have another chance to stuff them again in the loser's bracket of the tourney I'd vote them in.... LOL, I mean I guess we can trust that Todd Rogers will vouch for Hawaii... Although Cal Poly got "arguably" snubbed last year (or at least maybe in his opinion), so I don't know if he would actually push for Hawaii to get in... With representatives from FIU and ASUN, I wouldn't be too surprised to see both Stetson and FIU to get into the tournament. On another note, the coach for Hawaii thinks that the final at-large bid will come down to Hawaii, LMU, and FIU, which I'm assuming he thinks that Stetson gets the East bid over FIU. Maybe this type of thinking is due to the AVCA coaches poll, and although I hope that the people on the committee might be "swayed" to think like this, with the FIU head coach on the committee, I doubt that Hawaii would get so lucky (as I am pretty sure that it is more favorable for Hawaii to be compared with FIU and LMU). |
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Post by newbeach on Apr 28, 2019 1:18:51 GMT -5
If I were in a committee to put a team/individual I know I can beat and have done it 3x during the regular season, and have another chance to stuff them again in the loser's bracket of the tourney I'd vote them in.... LOL, I mean I guess we can trust that Todd Rogers will vouch for Hawaii... Although Cal Poly got "arguably" snubbed last year (or at least maybe in his opinion), so I don't know if he would actually push for Hawaii to get in... With representatives from FIU and ASUN, I wouldn't be too surprised to see both Stetson and FIU to get into the tournament. On another note, the coach for Hawaii thinks that the final at-large bid will come down to Hawaii, LMU, and FIU, which I'm assuming he thinks that Stetson gets the East bid over FIU. Maybe this type of thinking is due to the AVCA coaches poll, and although I hope that the people on the committee might be "swayed" to think like this, with the FIU head coach on the committee, I doubt that Hawaii would get so lucky (as I am pretty sure that it is more favorable for Hawaii to be compared with FIU and LMU). Maybe LMU is in consideration? That could definitely be in Hawaii's favor, but I also doubt Hawaii would get so lucky. I think the fact that Cal Poly didn't get in last year might also make for a favorable vote for Hawaii from Rogers as well (maybe because his team has beat Hawaii and maybe to promote the Big West as a strong conference). Still, if Hawaii were to get in the tournament, it wouldn't be totally undeserved. Let the deliberations begin. |
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Post by kaipono on Apr 28, 2019 1:29:07 GMT -5
LOL, I mean I guess we can trust that Todd Rogers will vouch for Hawaii... Although Cal Poly got "arguably" snubbed last year (or at least maybe in his opinion), so I don't know if he would actually push for Hawaii to get in... With representatives from FIU and ASUN, I wouldn't be too surprised to see both Stetson and FIU to get into the tournament. On another note, the coach for Hawaii thinks that the final at-large bid will come down to Hawaii, LMU, and FIU, which I'm assuming he thinks that Stetson gets the East bid over FIU. Maybe this type of thinking is due to the AVCA coaches poll, and although I hope that the people on the committee might be "swayed" to think like this, with the FIU head coach on the committee, I doubt that Hawaii would get so lucky (as I am pretty sure that it is more favorable for Hawaii to be compared with FIU and LMU). Maybe LMU is in consideration? That could definitely be in Hawaii's favor, but I also doubt Hawaii would get so lucky. I think the fact that Cal Poly didn't get in last year might also make for a favorable vote for Hawaii from Rogers as well (maybe because his team has beat Hawaii and maybe to promote the Big West as a strong conference). Still, if Hawaii were to get in the tournament, it wouldn't be totally undeserved. Let the deliberations begin. Yeah, Hawaii getting in the tournament wouldn't be "undeserved", and out of some other bubble teams, Hawaii has choked the least out of some of the others. Unfortunately, it seems that the match-up of Hawaii vs. Cal Poly just heavily favors the Mustangs. Against other bubble teams (opposed to Cal Poly), Hawaii does hold the head-to-head advantage over FIU, LMU, Cal, and LBSU, and they do hold a heavy advantage of common opponents over Stetson (with a win also over TCU). With that said, when Cal Poly takes an at-large, I can see the committee thinking that a team like Hawaii who has lost to Cal Poly three times, should not be in the tournament since they probably won't be competitive (which is funny considering how every other team on the bubble - other than maybe FIU - have been inconsistent). |
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Post by sandyfan on Apr 28, 2019 10:11:16 GMT -5
My guess:
1USC
2 UCLA
3 FSU
4 LSU
5 Pepperdine
6 Cal Poly
7 FIU
8 Stetson
This sets up all West vs. East in first round.
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Post by newbeach on Apr 28, 2019 10:58:42 GMT -5
My guess: 1USC 2 UCLA 3 FSU 4 LSU 5 Pepperdine 6 Cal Poly 7 FIU 8 Stetson This sets up all West vs. East in first round. Stetson in because they earned/deserved it over the other bubble teams, because they have a good overall record with a weak schedule, they have an ASUN rep. on the committee, or just to have four east and four west teams in the tournament? |
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Apr 28, 2019 12:17:11 GMT -5
I believe it will be a regional decision. Poly will get one of the At large bids so it makes sense that the other at large goes to the East as Hawaii and LMU didn’t do enough to separate themselves from East teams in bubble consideration. The last At large will go to one of these teams: FIU/Stetson/South Carolina. I would love for Hawaii to get in and I think they have a better resume than either FIU or Stetson but close losses to tournament teams is not going to do it (with other bubbles teams in close consideration). As Poly found out last season, you need to win to get in. I think their snub last season really motivated them this season, and that motivation has paid off. Next year, Hawaii needs to be better. They can start by taking Nebraska off their Spring Schedule. That whole deal is a one-sided affair with Nebraska getting all the benefit. Doesn’t benefit Hawaii at all. I do hope Hawaii gets in but I don’t believe it’ll happen.
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Post by sandyfan on Apr 28, 2019 12:58:00 GMT -5
My guess: 1USC 2 UCLA 3 FSU 4 LSU 5 Pepperdine 6 Cal Poly 7 FIU 8 Stetson This sets up all West vs. East in first round. Stetson in because they earned/deserved it over the other bubble teams, because they have a good overall record with a weak schedule, they have an ASUN rep. on the committee, or just to have four east and four west teams in the tournament? No I don't really think Stetson earned it but I don't think anyone else took it from them either. |
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Post by Leftrightapproach on Apr 28, 2019 13:23:48 GMT -5
1. USC
2. UCLA
3. FSU
4. LSU
5. Hawaii
6. Cal Poly
7. Pepperdine
8. FIU
Sorry Stetson ASUN got you again and Poly won their way in, FIU has h2h over Stetson and SoS but lost to every other team in the tournament except Cal Poly who they didn't play.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 28, 2019 13:45:45 GMT -5
Bubble resumes:
Please check for errors in significant wins/losses and common opponents.
CalPoly (.5817 sos) 25-10
+SCarolina +Hawaiix3 +ASU =Cal? =LBSU +GCU? +TCU? =LMU? –AZ –LSU –USC -Pep
SCarolina (.6038 sos) 20-11
+USC +ASU =LSU (1-2) -Stetson –FAU –CalPoly –TCU –CofC –GSU –FIU
Hawaii (.5537 sos) 26-9
+FIU +LBSUx2 +Calx2? +TCU? +LMUx2? +GCU? +ASU?x2 –LSU –CalPolyx3 -Pep -USC
Stetson (.5491 sos) 28-8
+SCar +LMU? +AZ +FAUx4? =LBSU =FIU(1-2) –USC –LSU –TCU?
Cal (.5628 sos) 22-9
+LBSU +AZ =CalPoly =ASU -Hawaiix2 –USC -Pep
LMU (.5205 sos) 22-11
+ASU +GCU +LBSU =PEP (2-2) -USC –Stetson –TCU –Calpoly –Hawaiix2
FIU (.6619 sos) 17-11
+Stetson(2-1) +SCarolina +FAUx2? +GCU? –LSU –USCx2 –Hawaii -Pep
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 28, 2019 13:52:47 GMT -5
CalPoly criteria comparisons 3-1-1 vs bubbles:
CalPoly vs SCarolina
H2H: CalPoly
COP: SCarolina (2-1 via +USC +LSU -TCU)
SOS: SCarolina
OVREC: tie/SCar? (+USC +LSU -2 average teams OR basically splits with bubbles)?
CalPoly vs Hawaii
H2H: CalPoly
COP: Hawaii (3-0 via +LBSU +Cal +LMU)
SoS: CalPoly
OVRec: tie/Hawaii? (Both with a mix of wins/losses versus bubbles, Hawaii win over FIU may matter)
CalPoly vs Stetson
H2H: none
COP: Stetson (3-1 via LMU, LBSU, AZ despite TCU) *lock*
SoS: CalPoly *lock*
OVREC: tie/Stetson? win over FIU could be key
CalPoly vs Cal
H2H: tie
COP: tie (1-1) +Hawaii -LBSU *lock?*
SOS: CalPoly
OVREC: tie/Calpoly?
CalPoly vs LMU
H2H: CalPoly
COP: CalPoly 2-1 via +TCU +Hawaii -Pep
SOS: CalPoly:
OVREC: ? doesn't matter CalPoly already wins compare
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