|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 26, 2019 22:44:34 GMT -5
With Cal Poly winning against LBSU earlier today, is it safe to say that LBSU is probably out? I mean if they win the rest of the matches to take the Big West, then they might have a slight chance, but that is highly unlikely. Right now it seems that the teams who are still in contention for an at-large are: FIU or Stetson (depending on who wins the East Bid #3) Hawaii Cal Poly South Carolina (this is still on the off-chance though) LBSU has a very slim chance to win BW with this silly format. They must beat CSUN then win 3 matches from Hawaii/CalPoly tomorrow. Even if they win the BW they will lose (or tie) most overall comparisons with other bubbles, much like LMU. So likely out barring something weird (like FIU being sanctioned). Cal has a longshot chance also, if they can beat ASU now then UCLA tomorrow. But that is quite doubtful. SCarolina, however, still has a legit chance. If you look at criteria comparisons on past pages in the thread, SCarolina is currently: AHEAD: of CalPoly, Cal TIED: with Hawaii, Stetson BEHIND: FIU (who I *think* will not be in At-Large pool by winning East bid #3) So SCarolina will likely be ahead of whomever loses BW final (they will have 2 more losses on their record). *** I project FIU by a hair over Stetson, barring a NCAA sanction on FIU for illegal lineups. Their criteria is tied, but FIU wins H2H, wins SOS, and has no bad losses. I think COP is tied, anyone wanna double-check? While Stetson probably wins RegionRec and OverallRec, it is versus weaker competition and they have a bad loss to TCU. BigWest winner *should* earn a bid, but there are chances for A beat B who beat C who beat A, like they did earlier in the season. If LBSU wins BW with 1 loss with Hawaii and CalPoly getting 2 losses, it could be a MESS. I don't think BW runner-up has much of a bid chance as they will get 2 losses this weekend. This is a zero sum game, somebody has to lose for each win. SCarolina *still* compares well versus almost all bubbles, because of mass choking. I think they are ahead/tied vs everyone except loser of Stetson/FIU comparison (whose criteria do not compare well versus West region teams). It is doubtful that any single team has better criteria than every other bubble for the final spot, so SCarolina has the best chance with strong SOS, decent record plus wins over USC + LSU. Cal and Arizona control their destiny, if one of them beats USC/UCLA they could pass SCarolina in criteria. |
|
|
|
Post by geddyleeridesagain on Apr 26, 2019 22:52:02 GMT -5
Arizona drops from bid contention. Despite their gaudy record, they have no chance. Arizona (.4677 sos) 21-6 +CalPoly =Stanford -Stetson -Cal -USC Criteria comparison versus other bubbles: H2H: will lose or tie versus all bubbles (except CalPoly) COP: will lose to almost everyone (mostly via Stanford split) SOS: will lose to EVERYONE in NCAA OVREC: will lose to all bubbles (maybe tie a couple) with just 1 good win (CalPoly) and 1 bad loss (Stanford). Quoting the famous geddyleeridesagain"Arizona’s problems are twofold: their schedule is pathetic and they’re a bad team. Frankly, given the amount of resources/financial support it receives from U of A, that program should be a whole better than it is." This quote from “the famous” geddy person is rude and really pisses me off. AZ isn’t a “bad team”. Maybe they lack coaching and a tough schedule, but they have some solid athletes and have played good teams tough. They have the number one 3s team in the country at 21-0 and calling them bad is just pathetic. Sorry dude, but they’re just not good. Their only notable win was against an overrated Cal Poly team. The rest of their wins are against Colorado Mesa, Boise State and the like. The off season might be interesting- Walker’s contract is up, I wonder if Arizona will look to go a different direction. |
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 26, 2019 22:58:48 GMT -5
This quote from “the famous” geddy person is rude and really pisses me off. AZ isn’t a “bad team”. Maybe they lack coaching and a tough schedule, but they have some solid athletes and have played good teams tough. They have the number one 3s team in the country at 21-0 and calling them bad is just pathetic. Sorry dude, but they’re just not good. Their only notable win was against an overrated Cal Poly team. The rest of their wins are against Colorado Mesa, Boise State and the like. The off season might be interesting- Walker’s contract is up, I wonder if Arizona will look to go a different direction. Ahh, interesting about Walkers contract. Wonder if that is why he scheduled weakly, to ensure renewal with a great record? It appears they had tougher schedules in past seasons. |
|
|
|
Post by burbank55 on Apr 27, 2019 1:28:47 GMT -5
Everyone thought that UCLA and USC are locks for seeds 1 & 2, but if USC beats UCLA tomorrow, then I see no reason why USC shouldn’t get the top seed.
The Trojans would have winning records this year against every team going to Gulf Shores (except South Carolina if they make it), including 3 wins in a row over UCLA.
|
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 27, 2019 1:48:40 GMT -5
Everyone thought that UCLA and USC are locks for seeds 1 & 2, but if USC beats UCLA tomorrow, then I see no reason why USC shouldn’t get the top seed. The Trojans would have winning records this year against every team going to Gulf Shores (except South Carolina if they make it), including 3 wins in a row over UCLA. 2 reasons, Common Opponents and Overall Record criteria. USC vs UCLA comparison: H2H: tie but say USC wins COP: UCLA SOS: ?? OVREC: UCLA Unless USC has a better SOS there is zero chance they move up. Even then it is a tie in criteria where committee votes on body of work. Perhaps @micahlitt will calculate their SOS |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2019 4:34:43 GMT -5
As of the time stamp of this posting: not accounting for any errors and before the PAC12 championship (BIG West Championship will also have an impact on both teams SoS keep that in mind) USC = 0.68608UCLA = 0.67708
Teams played under .500
UCLA and USC = 6
AZ = 16
Opp Win %: AZ = 50.7% (added for poop and giggles)
|
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 27, 2019 10:02:56 GMT -5
As we go into the final day of the regular season, it appears nothing has changed in my bid/seed projections since week 5! volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/76625/ncaa-beach-tournament-finish-strong?page=3#ixzz5mJ8djy00Seed-team name-NCAA bid1. UCLA - West bid 1 2. USC - West bid 2 3. FSU – East bid 1 4. LSU – East bid 2 5. PEP – West bid 3 6. FIU or Stetson (close in criteria for East bid #3) 7. CalPoly (Hawaii and LBSU have best chances to replace them) 8. SCarolina or Stetson/FIU loser. Pretenders have fallen to wayside and I expect Cal/LBSU to do the same today, barring UCLA measles outbreak. Every bubble team has choked in the past month when presented with opportunity to secure a bid. So back where we started. There is a chance that USC could earn #1 seed with a PAC12 title and their slim SOS lead holds. A committee vote would then break the tie in their overall criteria comparison. It is possible that seeds #6 and #7 are flipped, but it depends exactly who earns them and how BW finishes. There is a chance that BW runner up might earn the final At-Large bid, but probably only Hawaii and they would need to beat CalPoly once and hope for favorable comparison versus SCarolina/Stetson. |
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 27, 2019 12:27:01 GMT -5
As of the time stamp of this posting: not accounting for any errors and before the PAC12 championship (BIG West Championship will also have an impact on both teams SoS keep that in mind) USC = 0.68608UCLA = 0.67708 Teams played under .500
UCLA and USC = 6
AZ = 16
Opp Win %: AZ = 50.7% (added for poop and giggles)
And...Arizona SOS is .4611 (different than OPW% cuz they played just a handful of good teams and many bad ones). |
|
|
|
Post by txbvbfan on Apr 27, 2019 14:31:03 GMT -5
As we go into the final day of the regular season, it appears nothing has changed in my bid/seed projections since week 5! volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/76625/ncaa-beach-tournament-finish-strong?page=3#ixzz5mJ8djy00Seed-team name-NCAA bid1. UCLA - West bid 1 2. USC - West bid 2 3. FSU – East bid 1 4. LSU – East bid 2 5. PEP – West bid 3 6. FIU or Stetson (close in criteria for East bid #3) 7. CalPoly (Hawaii and LBSU have best chances to replace them) 8. SCarolina or Stetson/FIU loser. Pretenders have fallen to wayside and I expect Cal/LBSU to do the same today, barring UCLA measles outbreak. Every bubble team has choked in the past month when presented with opportunity to secure a bid. So back where we started. There is a chance that USC could earn #1 seed with a PAC12 title and their slim SOS lead holds. A committee vote would then break the tie in their overall criteria comparison. It is possible that seeds #6 and #7 are flipped, but it depends exactly who earns them and how BW finishes. There is a chance that BW runner up might earn the final At-Large bid, but probably only Hawaii and they would need to beat CalPoly once and hope for favorable comparison versus SCarolina/Stetson. Impressive forcasting! |
|
|
|
Post by sunger4222 on Apr 27, 2019 15:25:52 GMT -5
If my crusty memory serves me, USC and UCLA have played 3 times so far this season, with SC winning 2 of the 3. Should the Trojans take the Pac12 title, I don't see how the Bruins could be ranked ahead as they will have been defeated 3 of 4 tries. That said, I still see the schools this way: USC should win at the 1 and 3 spots, and UCLA should win at the 2 spot. That leaves 4 and 5's, and I simply don't have any faith in the Anna's final 2 pairs. The Pac12 title is a feather in any schools cap, but the NC is the most prized title for either. As a Trojan fan, I hate to say it, but overall, I think the Bruins have more talent. I want the Cardinal and Gold to win, but if not, lets keep the championship on the west coast.
|
|
|
|
Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Apr 27, 2019 17:01:12 GMT -5
Hawaii is out. Loss twice to Poly today. They need to stop wasting 3 matches per season playing against Nebraska. SOS makes a difference.
|
|
|
|
Post by Timeless on Apr 27, 2019 17:09:48 GMT -5
Hawaii is out. Loss twice to Poly today. They need to stop wasting 3 matches per season playing against Nebraska. SOS makes a difference. Yup only helping the Nebraska team cross-train all year long and develop their indoor team in National title contenders year after year. No benefit for Hawaii other than playing a "brand name" and getting annual televised matches lol |
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Apr 27, 2019 17:46:07 GMT -5
As we go into the final day of the regular season, it appears nothing has changed in my bid/seed projections since week 5! volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/76625/ncaa-beach-tournament-finish-strong?page=3#ixzz5mJ8djy00Seed-team name-NCAA bid1. UCLA - West bid 1 2. USC - West bid 2 3. FSU – East bid 1 4. LSU – East bid 2 5. PEP – West bid 3 6. FIU or Stetson (close in criteria for East bid #3) 7. CalPoly (Hawaii and LBSU have best chances to replace them) 8. SCarolina or Stetson/FIU loser. Pretenders have fallen to wayside and I expect Cal/LBSU to do the same today, barring UCLA measles outbreak. Every bubble team has choked in the past month when presented with opportunity to secure a bid. So back where we started. There is a chance that USC could earn #1 seed with a PAC12 title and their slim SOS lead holds. A committee vote would then break the tie in their overall criteria comparison. It is possible that seeds #6 and #7 are flipped, but it depends exactly who earns them and how BW finishes. There is a chance that BW runner up might earn the final At-Large bid, but probably only Hawaii and they would need to beat CalPoly once and hope for favorable comparison versus SCarolina/Stetson. Impressive forcasting! Lol at myself. We will see if my guesses are right, but I'm sure I missed something. Seems I get one wrong every time. This season is closer than ever for the final spots. We will actually need to compare SOS and all criteria this year! Thanks again to @micahlitt for doing the dirty work of computing SOS! I will double check everything and post comparisons tonight or tomorrow morning. |
|
|
|
Post by kaipono on Apr 27, 2019 18:22:24 GMT -5
What I think that the seeding for the NCAA Tournament will probably be:
1. USC
2. UCLA
3. FSU
4. LSU
5. Pepperdine
6. Cal Poly
7. FIU/Stetson
8. FIU/Stetson/SCarolina/Hawaii
|
|
|
|
Post by badbunny on Apr 27, 2019 18:29:15 GMT -5
What I think that the seeding for the NCAA Tournament will probably be: 1. USC 2. UCLA 3. FSU 4. LSU 5. Pepperdine 6. Cal Poly 7. FIU/Stetson 8. FIU/Stetson/SCarolina/Hawaii No chance Cal Poly at 6 seed. Finished strong, but not a 6 seed. |
|
