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Post by trollhunter on Apr 13, 2019 18:51:17 GMT -5
Any thoughts on how the Cal upset of LBSU and Stetson beating FIU and FAU twice uesterday affect at large bids? Cal has some good matchups today too but FIU and Stetson just have conference play left. It definitely helps Stetson in the At-Large race. OverallRecord - With a win instead of an expected loss, their final record could easily be 30-8, with wins over SCarolina, FIU, and a split with LBSU. That should win this criteria category versus most/all bubble teams. CommonOpponents - doesn't help much except maybe versus SCarolina or TCU (if they lose to FIU in CCSA). H2H - does not help, FIU still wins this criteria 2-1. SOS - does not help. For East Region bid #3 it helps Stetson somewhat in the RegionRec criteria. It certainly makes that East #3 bid race closer, I will have to do criteria comparisons again to see who is ahead there. It hurts LBSU, obviously to Overall record, H2H and maybe CommonOpps. Helps Cal a little but they still have work to do. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 13, 2019 19:06:41 GMT -5
I would argue there is a gap between 1 and 2 and a smaller gap between 2 and 3 and much much smaller gaps, if any, throughout top 15-20. I have seen all of these squads compete and saw FSU come very close to falling to AZ (who some in this forum have called a bad team) at home (came down to 15-13, 17-15 wins on two courts to save the win.) Squads like UAB 2 years ago had little talent are now going out and beating GA State and taking a match off of FSU and Stetson. It’s pretty cool to see this kind of growth in beach! What needs to happen is for the championship field to expand to incorporate more teams (16 minimum) since no. 9-16 are at the same level as many of those included in the top 8. I'm not sure how I would classify the levels between 1-2, but I wouldn't considered it an upset if 2 beats 1. I would agree that there is a smaller gap between 2-3 as their level of talent seems closer. I think people hear AZ beach volleyball and consider them a bad team (just by location) unlike other teams that are near the coast (If you mentioned U of Florida had a beach volleyball team I'd just assume they were good), but as someone else posted (could be another thread) that as the field grows, schools are going to have more competitive rosters and a better level of competition, which is definitely 'cool' and needed for the sport to grow. I agree with the championship field expanding, not sure how the NCAA creates the tourney schedules, but with the tournament being so late into the semester it may have something to do with its current tourney format (guesspeculating here). It's also been mentioned how the tourney isn't really a double elimination, expanding the tournament to 16 teams may eliminate that and just do a 1 and done type deal.
I agree with both caliburrito and socal3 that the gaps in level of play are much smaller than in the past. Having written that, I see a three tiers: Tier A - UCLA, USC who are about 40-2 versus rest of the field, with one loss being a bit of a strange situation. Tier B - Pepperdine, FSU, LSU who are 45-1 versus teams below them. Tier C - almost every other team with a winning record has beaten someone else in tier C. The only team in this group to beat teams in a tier above them is SCarolina. P.S. The FSU win over AZ was 4-1, so they only needed 1 of those pairs to clinch the match. But your point is still valid, it was a close match and the teams are closer in level than they have been in the past. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 13, 2019 19:21:01 GMT -5
Thanks for the info! TCU was mostly who I was wondering about, but curious of peoples thoughts on the others too. The problem with all the bubble and fringe teams is that NONE of them have impressive wins except for SCarolina (USC and LSU), but they also lost to most bubble teams! Really odd!! TCU has wins over SCarolina and Stetson which is as good as almost anyone in the bubble grouping. Their problem is more the record and especially some bad losses. TCU probably needs to beat some those teams you mentioned, so I won't bother with their resume since they can't. If FIU does not choke away East bid #3, Hawaii will have a quality win via them. Everyone else on the bubble is just beating (and losing) to bubble teams and fringe teams. There appears to be a huge gap between seeds #5 and #6. Also all contenders and fringe teams seem close to same level, as any of them can beat any of the others. I've seen Cal Berkeley, they are somewhat good, but not that good. Enough to win against mid to low level DIV-I teams and compete against re-building teams, just not above that yet.
I would agree that there is a gap between #5 and #6 and beyond. Hawaii just isn't there this year. Cal Poly may have closed the gap against Hawai'i but anything above that is just too far from their reach.
Looks like we were both wrong. Cal got a decent win over LBSU, and CofC ditto versus SCarolina. The "tier C" group of teams just continue to beat up on each other. They are making it REALLY hard for me to pick last 3 bids this year  Obviously all are close in level of play, but I still believe there is some choke factor going on here. |
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Post by caliburrito on Apr 13, 2019 19:35:27 GMT -5
I've seen Cal Berkeley, they are somewhat good, but not that good. Enough to win against mid to low level DIV-I teams and compete against re-building teams, just not above that yet.
I would agree that there is a gap between #5 and #6 and beyond. Hawaii just isn't there this year. Cal Poly may have closed the gap against Hawai'i but anything above that is just too far from their reach.
Looks like we were both wrong. Cal got a decent win over LBSU, and CofC ditto versus SCarolina. The "tier C" group of teams just continue to beat up on each other. They are making it REALLY hard for me to pick last 3 bids this year Obviously all are close in level of play, but I still believe there is some choke factor going on here. Is CofC even ranked? Not that it matters seeing your other post in the Hawaii thread.
I agree on the close level of play, It's actually kind of exciting to see. I really do wonder if that USC vs USC game was a fluke.
I'm excited for the tier B and C teams, they need a tourney of their own.
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Post by sandyfan on Apr 13, 2019 19:37:19 GMT -5
South Carolina is a mess right now. They have no consistency and if they dont get to the finals now I dont think they can get in the top 8. Its a shame because they have the talent.
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Post by sandyfan on Apr 13, 2019 21:59:19 GMT -5
South Carolina is a mess right now. They have no consistency and if they dont get to the finals now I dont think they can get in the top 8. Its a shame because they have the talent.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 14, 2019 20:23:59 GMT -5
Week 8 – NCAA bid projections, seeding and criteria comparisons
Seed-team name-NCAA bid-significant wins
1. UCLA - West bid 1 (beaten everyone, except up 2-1 over USC)
2. USC - West bid 2 (beaten everyone except -SCarolina, =Pep -UCLA (but won 1 of 3))
3. FSU – East bid 1 (=LSU +SCarolina x2 +Pep +Hawaii +CalPoly +LBSU, +Stetson +FIUx2)
4. LSU – East bid 2 (=FSU +SCarolina(2-1) +Pep +Hawaii +CalPoly +Stetson +FIU)
5. PEP – West bid 3 (+Hawaiix2 +LBSU +CalPoly +LMU? +FIU, =USC)
6. FIU? – East bid 3 (could swap seeds with BW winner)
7. BW winner? - At-Large bid 1
8. Stetson?/SCar? - At-Large bid 2
TOP 5 SEEDS – Are locked via good SOS, good records, H2H wins, CommOpp wins. In theory, LSU could move above FSU or below PEP.
EAST BID 3 - Team comparisons follow in next post. FIU seems to still have a small edge.
AT-LARGE bids - Will do next week once @micahlitt updates SoS
Key:
+ indicates a win
= indicates a split
- indicates a loss
? indicates an opponent that may (or may not) be under consideration for a bid at end of season
Let me know if I missed anything or you see it differently.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 14, 2019 21:21:39 GMT -5
Week 8 - East bid #3 - FIU still with a small edge
*Resumes*:
FIU 14-10 (12-4 East) +Stetson(2-1) +FAUx2? –LSU –USCx2 –Hawaii
Stetson 25-8 (22-5 East) +SCarolina +LMU? +AZ? +FAU?x2 =LBSU –LSU –TCU –FIU (1-2)
SCarolina 18-9 (16-8 East) +USC -LSU(1-2) -Stetson –FAU –CalPoly –TCU -CofC
CofC 18-2 (17-1 East) +SCarolina –GSU -ASU
TCU? 15-14 (13-7 East) +SCarolina +Stetson +LMU =GCU -Hawaii -CalPoly -USC -LSU -FAUx2 -UNF -Tulane
**East bid 3 criteria comparisons**:
FIU vs Stetson:
RegionRec = TIE (12-4 with 2 SigWins and 0 bad loss vs 22-5 with 2 SigWin and 1 bad loss). Depending on how both teams finish, the committee could award this criteria to either team or call it a tie.
Head2Head = FIU (2-1)
CommonOpps (region) = TIE (+FIU if they beat TCU/LSU/FSU in CCSA. +Stetson if FIU loses to SCarolina/FAU/GSU/Tulane)
SoS (region) = FIU 0.5950 to 0.5250
OverallRec = Stetson
If FIU can avoid a bad loss in CCSA, they may barely squeeze past Stetson for NCAA East region bid #3.
FIU vs SCarolina:
RegionRec = FIU (12-4 with 2 SigWins and 0 bad loss vs 16-8 with 1 SigWin (I'd count LSU as 2 SigWins) and 2 bad loss
Head2Head = TIE (have not played)
CommonOpps (region) = FIU (2-1) +Stetson +FAU -LSU
(SCarolina needs to beat FSU or hope FIU loses to lower teams)
SoS (region) = FIU barely .5950 to .5800 (this could be a tie or go to either team)
OverallRec = SCarolina
SCarolina needs to be paired with and beat FIU to have a chance for East #3. They probably need more help such as:
1) FIU losing to a lower team
2) A SoS boost from CCSA draw
3) Beating FSU
FIU vs CofC:
RegionRec = CofC? (12-4 with 2 SigWins and 0 bad loss vs 17-1 with 1 SigWin and 1 bad loss. This could go either way depending on finishes and committee evaluation)
Head2Head = TIE (have not played)
CommonOpps (region) = FIU via GSU
SoS (region) = FIU .5950 to .4850
OverallRec = CofC? (17-2 with 1 SigWin and 2 bad losses, vs 14-10 with 2 SigWins and 0 bad losses).
CofC needs a strong finish to have a shot at East #3, likely a couple of these:
1) Getting paired with and beating FIU
2) Beating FSU or LSU
3) FIU losing to a lower team
Key:
+ indicates a win
= indicates a split
- indicates a loss
? indicates an opponent that may (or may not) be under consideration for a bid at end of season
Let me know if I missed anything or you see it differently.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2019 0:10:28 GMT -5
Here's the latest SoS: (Highest-Lowest)
FIU = 0.68003
South Carolina = 0.62713
Cal Poly SLO = 0.60274
California = 0.57049
Hawaii = 0.56068
Stetson = 0.55150
LMU = 0.50759
LBSU = 0.49724
C of Charleston = 0.47628
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Post by pd154 on Apr 15, 2019 14:47:38 GMT -5
I really thought that the decision would have been made easier a few days ago by Stetson. I thought that with the games in Boca, a long drive
, playing at 8 am vs home team FAU with FIU scouting. Then playing a fresh FIU and then right after again playing a rested FAU in that hot and humid day. I thought it poorly set up for success on Stetson's part but well designed by Rita. I guess the Stetson coach had confidence in her team and obviously she was right. I assumed Stetson would beat FAU in the am, but lose to FIU and then even possibly lose to FAU in the third match in the afternoon. Was pretty wrong on that one.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 15, 2019 15:53:15 GMT -5
I really thought that the decision would have been made easier a few days ago by Stetson. I thought that with the games in Boca, a long drive , playing at 8 am vs home team FAU with FIU scouting. Then playing a fresh FIU and then right after again playing a rested FAU in that hot and humid day. I thought it poorly set up for success on Stetson's part but well designed by Rita. I guess the Stetson coach had confidence in her team and obviously she was right. I assumed Stetson would beat FAU in the am, but lose to FIU and then even possibly lose to FAU in the third match in the afternoon. Was pretty wrong on that one. I thought it was a poor decision by Rita to play Stetson again, FIU had really nothing to gain. It hurts their RegionRec significantly, and would have only helped slightly if they won. It helps their SoS, but they already led that criteria by a large margin. Would not help/hurt H2H, either way. FIU OverallRec was already bad, regardless of result. It puts Stetson back in East bid #3 and At-Large race. While giving FIU no margin for error. P.S. Originally on the schedule, FIU was playing only FAU, once. Which made more sense, a relatively easy region win to pad their resume. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 15, 2019 16:10:00 GMT -5
Week 8 AT-LARGE bids
There is no clear favorite for At-Large anymore, thanks to a choke-fest by bubble teams.
4 teams have the best chances, and a few fringe teams have slim chances.
Perhaps I will do criteria comparisons later in the week, but it is really who finishes stronger.
Resumes (alphabetic order):
CalPoly (.5900 sos) 17-8 +SCarolina +Hawaii +Cal? +TCU? =LMU? –LBSU -LSU -AZ
(GCU, Cal, Stanford, USC, BWest)
Hawaii (.5500 sos) 23-7 +FIU +LBSU +Cal?x2 +TCU? +LMU? +GCU? –LSU -CalPoly
(BWest)
SCarolina (.6100 sos) 20-9 +USC =LSU -Stetson –FAU –CalPoly –TCU –CofC
(CCSA)
Stetson (.5400 sos) 25-8 +SCar +LMU? +AZ +FAU? =LBSU =FIU(1-2) –LSU –TCU?
(ASUN)
AZ? (.4500 sos) 17-4 +CalPoly -Stetson –Stanford –USC
(Sac State x2, Boise State, PAC12)
Will lose SoS and CommonOpps to everyone above. Must pull upsets in PAC12.
Cal? (.5600 sos) 17-7 +LBSU -Hawaiix2 –USC -CalPoly
(CalPoly, Stanford x2, PAC12)
Will lose CommonOpps and OverallRec to everyone above. Must pull upsets in PAC12.
LBSU? (.4900 sos) 17-7 +CalPoly +LMU? =Stetson –Hawaii –Cal -USC
(GCU, UCLA, St. Mary’s, BWest)
Will lose SoS and either ComOpps or H2H to everyone above. Must beat UCLA or win rest.
CofC, FIU and TCU need to focus on East bid #3 – they will not have much chance in At-Large unless they dominate in CCSA (and would win East bid #3 that way).
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 15, 2019 16:21:13 GMT -5
South Carolina is a mess right now. They have no consistency and if they dont get to the finals now I dont think they can get in the top 8. Its a shame because they have the talent. I agree about the lack of consistency and that they have talent. Which makes me wonder what the problem is: A) Conditioning B) Mental / choke C) Coaching D) Other I have an opinion, having seen them in past years, and early this season. Curious what others think that have seen them play. |
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Post by newbeach on Apr 15, 2019 17:12:09 GMT -5
South Carolina is a mess right now. They have no consistency and if they dont get to the finals now I dont think they can get in the top 8. Its a shame because they have the talent. I agree about the lack of consistency and that they have talent. Which makes me wonder what the problem is: A) Conditioning B) Mental / choke C) Coaching D) Other I have an opinion, having seen them in past years, and early this season. Curious what others think that have seen them play. I would include injury/illness, poor scheduling (or unfair scheduling) as a few examples of the "other" that may have affected several of the teams. |
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Post by sonofdogman on Apr 15, 2019 18:29:19 GMT -5
South Carolina is a mess right now. They have no consistency and if they dont get to the finals now I dont think they can get in the top 8. Its a shame because they have the talent. I agree about the lack of consistency and that they have talent. Which makes me wonder what the problem is: A) Conditioning B) Mental / choke C) Coaching D) Other I have an opinion, having seen them in past years, and early this season. Curious what others think that have seen them play. E) B & C Mostly some mental toughness issues, which coaches should be able to address. I think that aspect of the game is important to Moritz & RJ too, so why the Gamecocks fail here is a mystery to me. I also think the defensive tactics are subpar, but I think that about 90% of the teams I see play. |
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