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Post by trollhunter on Apr 8, 2019 10:37:45 GMT -5
Week 7 AT-LARGE RESUMES and key matches left on schedule:
CalPoly (.5600 sos) 18-7 +SCarolina +Hawaii +TCU? =LMU? –LBSU -LSU -AZ
GCU, Calx2, Pep, USC, BWTournament
SCarolina (.6100 sos) 15-8 +USC =LSU -Stetson –FAU –CalPoly -TCU
CofC, CCSA tournament
Hawaii (.5500 sos) 18-7 +FIU +LBSU +Cal?x2 +TCU? +GCU? –LSU -CalPoly
LMUx2, BWTournament
LBSU (.4500 sos) 15-5 +CalPoly +LMU? =Stetson -Hawaii
USC, Cal, GCU, BWTournament
Stetson (.5600 sos) 20-8 +SCarolina +LMU +AZ +FAU?x2 =LBSU –LSU –TCU –FIUx2
FAU, FIU (maybe, 3rd match is on Stetson schedule but not FIU’s), ASUN
FIU (.6500 sos) 13-9 +Stetsonx2 +FAUx2? –LSU –USCx2 –Hawaii
FAU, Stetson (maybe), CCSA
AZ, Cal, TCU and many others could be listed here also, but don't have the time.
I still have CalPoly + SCarolina as slight favorites, despite their chokes this weekend.
CalPoly will have a strong SoS at end of season, plus chances to beat USC/Pep as well as BW.
SCarolina will win SoS criteria over everyone, and probably OverallRec once USC and LSU wins are factored in. Can they stop losing to lower teams?
Other contenders could easily pass them in final weeks. It really depends on who finishes stronger.
The At-Large bids are there for taking and teams keep choking: Stetson, CalPoly, SCarolina all losing to teams outside of bubble recently.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 8, 2019 11:09:09 GMT -5
Week 7 Strength of Schedule "Futures":
Thanks again to @micahlitt for calculating and sharing the SoS for the bubble contenders!
Below is an estimate of what everyones SoS will be at end of season, once they play everyone on their schedule.
It does not include conference tournaments, but I will update this once those pairings are released:
.6500 FIU
.6000 SCarolina
.5900 CalPoly
.5500 Hawaii - assuming they play LMU twice at home tournament
.5500 Stetson
.5500 Cal
.5100 LBSU
Conference tournament draws will be very important not just for chances to beat good teams, but also for SoS criteria.
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Post by Fight On! on Apr 8, 2019 12:21:57 GMT -5
I really need South Carolina to make the NCAAs so I can spend the week with the Dimkes! They love to party. Haha.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 9, 2019 9:22:49 GMT -5
Week 8 - bubble team matches
These are the last regular season matches for most East region teams, before conference tournaments. Most West region teams have another week of regular season.
FIU vs Florida Southern 5-0
FIU vs Stetson 2-3 (and FIU joins the choking ranks for last bids)
SCarolina vs Tulane 4-1
SCarolina vs Missouri State 5-0
SCarolina vs UNCW 3-2
SCarolina vs CofC 2-3 (another choke?)
Hawaii vs LMU 3-2
Hawaii vs SJSU 5-0
Hawaii vs Washington 4-1
Hawaii vs SJSU (semis) 5-0
Hawaii vs LMU (finals) 3-2
LBSU vs USC 0-5
LBSU vs Cal 2-3 (well that makes things interesting for final bids)
Cal Poly vs Pepperdine 1-4
Cal Poly vs Cal 3-2
Stetson vs Mercer 5-0
Stetson vs Mercer 5-0 (doubleheader)
Stetson vs FAU 3-2
Stetson vs FAU 3-2 (doubleheader)
plus FIU match above
TCU vs TAMCC 4-1
TCU vs UAB 4-1
TCU vs FSU 1-4
Cal vs Pep 1-4
plus LBSU / CalPoly matches above
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 10, 2019 7:37:05 GMT -5
Has anyone seen these fringe teams play? Wondering if they have a legit shot at upsets and if I should do resumes, SoS, criteria comparisons on them:
Cal - was not impressed the one time I saw them but maybe was an off day
TCU - have not seen
Arizona - did ok the one time I saw them
GCU - have not seen
CofC - seen once, does not appear capable of upsets
Anyone else?
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Post by sonofdogman on Apr 10, 2019 8:49:24 GMT -5
I've seen TCU. They really aren't going anywhere. Big win over South Carolina Sunday morning last weekend was impressive but also somewhat fluky - Gamecocks no.1 pair withdrew due to injury up 11-5 in set 2, while squad had a "hangover" after falling flat against LSU the night before, and the match was played at 9 instead of 11am on short notice because schedule changed due to impending weather.
The Horned Frogs looked good but they won't challenge LSU, FSU, or FIU and they don't have any impressive wins for at large consideration.
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Post by coach79 on Apr 10, 2019 14:09:14 GMT -5
I've seen TCU. They really aren't going anywhere. Big win over South Carolina Sunday morning last weekend was impressive but also somewhat fluky - Gamecocks no.1 pair withdrew due to injury up 11-5 in set 2, while squad had a "hangover" after falling flat against LSU the night before, and the match was played at 9 instead of 11am on short notice because schedule changed due to impending weather. The Horned Frogs looked good but they won't challenge LSU, FSU, or FIU and they don't have any impressive wins for at large consideration. |
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Post by coach79 on Apr 10, 2019 14:14:52 GMT -5
I've seen TCU. They really aren't going anywhere. Big win over South Carolina Sunday morning last weekend was impressive but also somewhat fluky - Gamecocks no.1 pair withdrew due to injury up 11-5 in set 2, while squad had a "hangover" after falling flat against LSU the night before, and the match was played at 9 instead of 11am on short notice because schedule changed due to impending weather. The Horned Frogs looked good but they won't challenge LSU, FSU, or FIU and they don't have any impressive wins for at large consideration. Gamecocks no. 1 pair didn't withdraw vs TCU. They withdrew vs Tamuk. |
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Post by coach79 on Apr 10, 2019 14:23:17 GMT -5
sorry, vs HBU
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 10, 2019 14:59:43 GMT -5
I've seen TCU. They really aren't going anywhere. Big win over South Carolina Sunday morning last weekend was impressive but also somewhat fluky - Gamecocks no.1 pair withdrew due to injury up 11-5 in set 2, while squad had a "hangover" after falling flat against LSU the night before, and the match was played at 9 instead of 11am on short notice because schedule changed due to impending weather. The Horned Frogs looked good but they won't challenge LSU, FSU, or FIU and they don't have any impressive wins for at large consideration. Thanks for the info! TCU was mostly who I was wondering about, but curious of peoples thoughts on the others too. The problem with all the bubble and fringe teams is that NONE of them have impressive wins except for SCarolina (USC and LSU), but they also lost to most bubble teams! Really odd!! TCU has wins over SCarolina and Stetson which is as good as almost anyone in the bubble grouping. Their problem is more the record and especially some bad losses. TCU probably needs to beat some those teams you mentioned, so I won't bother with their resume since they can't. If FIU does not choke away East bid #3, Hawaii will have a quality win via them. Everyone else on the bubble, except SCarolina, is only beating (and losing) to bubble teams and fringe teams. There appears to be a huge gap between seeds #5 and #6. Also all contenders and fringe teams seem close to same level, as any of them can beat any of the others. |
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Post by caliburrito on Apr 10, 2019 16:53:37 GMT -5
I've seen TCU. They really aren't going anywhere. Big win over South Carolina Sunday morning last weekend was impressive but also somewhat fluky - Gamecocks no.1 pair withdrew due to injury up 11-5 in set 2, while squad had a "hangover" after falling flat against LSU the night before, and the match was played at 9 instead of 11am on short notice because schedule changed due to impending weather. The Horned Frogs looked good but they won't challenge LSU, FSU, or FIU and they don't have any impressive wins for at large consideration. Thanks for the info! TCU was mostly who I was wondering about, but curious of peoples thoughts on the others too. The problem with all the bubble and fringe teams is that NONE of them have impressive wins except for SCarolina (USC and LSU), but they also lost to most bubble teams! Really odd!! TCU has wins over SCarolina and Stetson which is as good as almost anyone in the bubble grouping. Their problem is more the record and especially some bad losses. TCU probably needs to beat some those teams you mentioned, so I won't bother with their resume since they can't. If FIU does not choke away East bid #3, Hawaii will have a quality win via them. Everyone else on the bubble is just beating (and losing) to bubble teams and fringe teams. There appears to be a huge gap between seeds #5 and #6. Also all contenders and fringe teams seem close to same level, as any of them can beat any of the others. I've seen Cal Berkeley, they are somewhat good, but not that good. Enough to win against mid to low level DIV-I teams and compete against re-building teams, just not above that yet.
I would agree that there is a gap between #5 and #6 and beyond. Hawaii just isn't there this year. Cal Poly may have closed the gap against Hawai'i but anything above that is just too far from their reach.
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Post by sonofdogman on Apr 11, 2019 1:03:46 GMT -5
I botched that up. Me memory be like Swiss cheese. Thanks for catching & correcting Coach |
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Post by txbvbfan on Apr 13, 2019 9:19:19 GMT -5
Any thoughts on how the Cal upset of LBSU and Stetson beating FIU and FAU twice uesterday affect at large bids? Cal has some good matchups today too but FIU and Stetson just have conference play left.
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Post by socal3 on Apr 13, 2019 10:29:24 GMT -5
Thanks for the info! TCU was mostly who I was wondering about, but curious of peoples thoughts on the others too. The problem with all the bubble and fringe teams is that NONE of them have impressive wins except for SCarolina (USC and LSU), but they also lost to most bubble teams! Really odd!! TCU has wins over SCarolina and Stetson which is as good as almost anyone in the bubble grouping. Their problem is more the record and especially some bad losses. TCU probably needs to beat some those teams you mentioned, so I won't bother with their resume since they can't. If FIU does not choke away East bid #3, Hawaii will have a quality win via them. Everyone else on the bubble is just beating (and losing) to bubble teams and fringe teams. There appears to be a huge gap between seeds #5 and #6. Also all contenders and fringe teams seem close to same level, as any of them can beat any of the others. I've seen Cal Berkeley, they are somewhat good, but not that good. Enough to win against mid to low level DIV-I teams and compete against re-building teams, just not above that yet.
I would agree that there is a gap between #5 and #6 and beyond. Hawaii just isn't there this year. Cal Poly may have closed the gap against Hawai'i but anything above that is just too far from their reach.
I would argue there is a gap between 1 and 2 and a smaller gap between 2 and 3 and much much smaller gaps, if any, throughout top 15-20. I have seen all of these squads compete and saw FSU come very close to falling to AZ (who some in this forum have called a bad team) at home (came down to 15-13, 17-15 wins on two courts to save the win.) Squads like UAB 2 years ago had little talent are now going out and beating GA State and taking a match off of FSU and Stetson. It’s pretty cool to see this kind of growth in beach! What needs to happen is for the championship field to expand to incorporate more teams (16 minimum) since no. 9-16 are at the same level as many of those included in the top 8. |
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Post by caliburrito on Apr 13, 2019 11:36:02 GMT -5
I've seen Cal Berkeley, they are somewhat good, but not that good. Enough to win against mid to low level DIV-I teams and compete against re-building teams, just not above that yet.
I would agree that there is a gap between #5 and #6 and beyond. Hawaii just isn't there this year. Cal Poly may have closed the gap against Hawai'i but anything above that is just too far from their reach.
I would argue there is a gap between 1 and 2 and a smaller gap between 2 and 3 and much much smaller gaps, if any, throughout top 15-20. I have seen all of these squads compete and saw FSU come very close to falling to AZ (who some in this forum have called a bad team) at home (came down to 15-13, 17-15 wins on two courts to save the win.) Squads like UAB 2 years ago had little talent are now going out and beating GA State and taking a match off of FSU and Stetson. It’s pretty cool to see this kind of growth in beach! What needs to happen is for the championship field to expand to incorporate more teams (16 minimum) since no. 9-16 are at the same level as many of those included in the top 8. I'm not sure how I would classify the levels between 1-2, but I wouldn't considered it an upset if 2 beats 1. I would agree that there is a smaller gap between 2-3 as their level of talent seems closer. I think people hear AZ beach volleyball and consider them a bad team (just by location) unlike other teams that are near the coast (If you mentioned U of Florida had a beach volleyball team I'd just assume they were good), but as someone else posted (could be another thread) that as the field grows, schools are going to have more competitive rosters and a better level of competition, which is definitely 'cool' and needed for the sport to grow.
I agree with the championship field expanding, not sure how the NCAA creates the tourney schedules, but with the tournament being so late into the semester it may have something to do with its current tourney format (guesspeculating here). It's also been mentioned how the tourney isn't really a double elimination, expanding the tournament to 16 teams may eliminate that and just do a 1 and done type deal.
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